What's the magic number?

I think you're right that the Big East already has a round number in mind from NBC (and perhaps from FOX, too). I guess the question is how much the Big East believes that NBC will stretch themselves to obtain the conference and whether or not the conference truly wants to switch partners from ESPN to NBC.

Like it or not, while the value of the leagues perception is worth more than a few extra dollars, a large part of that perception is the value of the contract com pared with the other leagues. While two years ago, a deal equal to the ACC's would have been fine, the explosion in the value of the other leagues has dwarfed the ACC number (even the renegotiated number.)

The narrative while be one of the following:

BE inks deal roughly equal to ACC: The BE has maintained it seat at the big boy table but lags behind the other Big Four and without a clear path to the big money bowls will have difficulting maintaining its position unless a program or two can break through.

BE inks deal less than ACC: Clearly the market has spoken, we are down to Five (four and a half) big time football conferences. While the BE remains ahead of the lower level conferences, it's value is clearly tied to basketball. We'll see if that continues to carry the BE. In football, access to the playoffs will be difficult and almost certainly the BE champion to be undefeated. So much for Boise St. improving its access to the biggest games, they are likely questioning their decision to jump to the BE, but I am sure the makes them feel a bit better.

BE inks a deal for more than the ACC with ESPN: Clearly ESPN valued BE BB as an anchor for it's midweek programming slate and was desparate to keep NBC out of the CFB business. It remains to be seen if the BE will ever consistently compete for the National Championship in FB, but reports of the leagues demise were surely mistaken. Now they will have to prove it on the field.

BE inks a deal for more than the ACC with NBC or Fox: The BE finally catches a break. It's decision to test the open market has secured the leagues FB future for while. They will have the opportunity to prove themselves on the field, but it remains to be seen if the BE will ever consistently compete for the National Championship in FB, but reports of the leagues demise were surely mistaken. For NBC, this gives them a foot in the door for CFB with ND and the BE. NBC will need to hope that the BE can improve it's on the field product. If it can, then the large BE media markets may result in a home run for NBC, but that would requires a big upgrade for most of these program. At minimum, its NBCSports property now has programming that someone might actually watch, (sorry NHL.)

So this contract is kind of a big deal. $15M is a loser.

So in your view, your magic number is....oh, yeah, I think you forgot that part of the thread, huh? Why do you continually post your crap? Find another thread, or perhaps even another board.

By the way, I saw your video on YouTube. Solid stuff...

I can respect that. However, I think the thing that I should add to the discussion is the importance of landing the BE champion in one of the bigger bowls, as you've alluded to. If ESPN were willing to leverage its clout in order to secure a spot in the big bowls along with 15 mil, I don't think it's a failure. I do see your point in terms of being on the outside looking in with almost as much money; how long is that sustainable. It's a good point.

I would be shocked if the Big East signed in the exclusive period. Really makes no sense for either party. ESPN isn't going to give them ACC money and no reason to sign unless it's ACC money. The Big East went this far, may as well get out in open seas.

I wouldn't be surprised by any result in any type of negotiations. You never know how much or how little resolve the key decision maker has in the room.

I suspect the BE decision maker will be fairly weak kneed, and would jump at a guarantee of ACC money.

What I don't know is how badly ESPN wants to keep NBC at bay. $40m worth? Or the difference in between the ACC and their initial offer? A $6B company can afford it if they really want to freeze out NBC.

My guess is ESPN will make that offer as a take it or leave it and live with the consequences. But, not before letting the public know they are out weakening the BE position with NBC, at least as a threat to keep the bidding down in case they want to jump back in, later. It's what I would do.

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I agree with this. The point of an exclusivity period in any negotiation, in my opinion, is to make a temporary pitch. Essentially, party A says to party B, "Here's what I'm willing to offer you now, but don't expect it in the open market." It is a large game of chicken.

I also agree with your assessment that the Big East brass, upon the sight of an ACC-like money contract, would sign right then and there. If ESPN offers in the ballpark of 17 million per team, I think we are hearing the last of any Big East to NBC talk.

I think a lot of the BE #s have to do with bad time slots and zero (or perhaps negative) promotion. Wrap the games around Notre Dame and promote the match ups all week and you'll see those numbers increase...dramatically.

Agree with both of you. It is hard to walk away from numbers that, essentially, are an admission that we belong at the big boy table. Still, without some guarantees to protect the Big East brand, acceptance of a deal that "approaches" 17M is a mistake.

Well let me put it another way; at least half of the Boneyarders (if not more) believe that if we accepted the 11 mil per team contract from ESPN last year, that we would not have lost some or most of the four teams that we've lost. I don't happen to be one of them, but many Boneyarders will tell you that story.

Now imagine if ESPN were to offer even 15 or 16 million per team, and the Big East says that they would like to test the open market. God forbid, the Big East gets stuck taking a much lower bid from ESPN or another competitor, it will be looked upon as a titanic disaster. At that point, teams might not even need an invite to leave the conference!!

It's a very tricky situation, no doubt about it. Huskymedic just posted a thread talking about the Big East signing some media consultants in preparation for the negotiations, which I think is a good move. We need every possible professional out there that is willing to work with us to be in that room and help guide the conference through the biggest decision it has ever had to make...

If ESPN wants to freeze out NBC why would the offer be take it or leave it?

I don't think ESPN will up their bid, but if their intention is to freeze out NBC, take it or leave it makes no sense. Because unless the dollars are ridiculous, they are going to leave it. If they are willing to pay ridiculous dollars, why would they walk away from the negotiations because another party was involved.

That isn't going to happen though. If they walk away from 15 or 16 it's because they know NBC is at least meeting that number.

Absolutely, if the negotiating team is at all competent. But, I assure you there is a deal that the BE will re-up with ESPN. The BE position is not as solid as some here would have you believe. That deal is likely a little less than my original post ITT.

A bird in the hand, and all that.

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Assuming they aren't complete idiots, the only way I can see them resigning with ESPN is if the number ESPN offers is considerably more than the number that NBC whispers in their ear. It's almost impossible to screw up. If it's lower you go to market, if it's higher you take the deal - even the Big East can do that right?

Based on that premise, if we see the Big East and ESPN not finalize a deal by the end of October, we might assume that the Big East's "whispered number" from NBC hasn't been met.

I'll tell you what; I wasn't sure what to make of the rumors of 14+ million per team from NBC, but the more that I read about it (and type about it), the more I'm thinking that it is extremely likely that it will be the case. And if so, that is very good news for the Big East and for UConn!!

Except it is not all about the number, there are other considerations. And yes, they should have an idea about what NBC might be willing to pay, but NBC isn't writing the number down on a piece of paper. They want to win as well, and want to pay as little as possible. They may give a nod as to say they would pay in the realm of the ACC contract, but I doubt they'd go further than that. If they want to assure the BE turns down ESPN, the only way to do that is whisper a number that ESPN will not reasonably match. Since ESPN is richer than NBC, at least when is comes to sports programming, there is no reason to try that. NBC will watch the negotiations, dance around their best deal and hope the BE takes to the market. Once open to all, they will assess the competition and make an offer.

As I said earlier, I wouldn't expect ESPN to participate in a bidding war. Everything they've done since the BE turned them down has been in preparation for the BE to walk. ESPN will deal but, only on their terms. My guess is that the range for all bidders is $14-18M per all sports member so the other conditions will be a big factor in the BE deciding whether to accept any offer. The complexity of the BE membership only weakens the BE position. In my first post, I wanted (20/15/5) and would accept (18/13/5) but what if the BBonlies vote to accept (16/10/6) plus some BB TV goodies. Do the AS and FB onlies have pull together to make it (17/12/5) or turn it down and hit the open market. I doubt it, which is why I think the BE would agree to the ACC per team average with a bump in the BB payout, and a few more games on the big 3 networks on whatever night ESPN wants them. They may even shaft the new FB onlies by cutting the BB money out of their share. I hope I'm wrong and they have finally figured it out. This may be their last chance.

What the basketball-onlies have to understand is that this conference without UConn, Louisville, and Cincy will crush the basketball stature along with it. Yes, they will still have GTown, Nova, Marquette, Temple, Memphis, and ND (maybe). But without the "Big Football Three," the bball is only slightly above average. It would set off a cascade that would relegate them to the bottom of major conferences and just above the A-10.

I think they finally get that, though. I think that's why they finally decided to go for teams like Houston, SMU, and UCF as basketball members. And a 5-6 million dollar payout to most of those basketball schools would be a windfall (I'm thinking of schools like DePaul, St. John's, Seton Hall, and Providence). Bottom line: if someone were to offer the Big East (20/15/5), there would be a danger of the paper incinerating due to the speed of which it gets signed...

Our latest basketball recruit's AAU Coach on why Kentan Facey chose UConn:

"You’re not going to get better exposure: CBS, Big Monday, ESPN, they’re a Nike Elite team, they have a Hall of Fame coach in Calhoun.”

5 years from now, if we sign with NBC Sports, none of the above will be true except for the Nike deal.

Kids want to be on ESPN. It's cool, it's respected, it's the pulse of America sports. Doesn't matter that I hate it. I'm not an 17 year old kid deciding on where to play college football/basketball. Kids want to be on Top Plays, they want to tell their friends they are on SportsCenter.

"Hey, where's that UConn vs. Boise State game you got Saturday?"

"Uhh, it's on 10pm EST (8pm MT) after bull riding on NBC Sports."

"Ok..."

Fans here are getting way too emotional about being anti-ESPN and putting some sense of revenge by leaving, over the best case future situation for UConn sports. Luckily, (more like thank god) nobody on the Boneyard has anything to do with the tv contract.

I like the two guys they are bringing in as media consultants and the only thing I know about them is that they don't have any prior Big East connections (or so I think).

The less career Big East guys that have their hands in this deal, the better.

I pretty much agree with you, but there is a number where you have to take a chance.

As for the Dan's post - I'm sure only Louisville and UConn keep the basketball schools around. Lose either and the hybrid is toast.

In five years the quote will be:

"You’re not going to get better exposure: NBC prime time, NBCsports channel and they've got a secondary deal with SNY, every game televised, they’re a Nike Elite team, they have a Hall of Fame coach in Calhoun mentoring one of the rising stars in the coaching ranks, Kevin Ollie.”

Kids want to be on national TV. It's cool for the kids (and the parents) to be watching some comedy or drama and see a promo for their sons games.

"Hey, where's that UConn vs. Boise State game you got Saturday?"

"Uhh, it's on 2pm EST right after after Notre Dame game on NBC."

"Okay!"

One of the big mistakes in battle is fighting the last war instead of anticipating the next. It's easier to look backwards, build the Maginot Line and hope for the best. When the Big East was formed ESPN was a start up venture. NBC is a major network expending major funds to re-establish itself in live sports. It's no a fly by night shoo.

It's all good.