What is the end game in a P2 world?

[Hoophound]

But isn't that what the SEC and (especially) the B1G are doing...........expanding to just about every city that can possibly support a B1G/SEC team? Giving fans that have migrated to other regions of the country direct access to their product?

They aren’t expanding everywhere that can handle it. Connecticut can absolutely support a P2 school, yet we aren’t allowed. We can’t be the only market in this situation.

I’d argue that several B12 schools, several ACC schools and others can do it. Regardless, plenty of other schools can support a very successful G5 level program that can play with the big boys. Those schools will no longer be worth supporting (Boise St, Memphis, USF, SDSU etc).

 

[Kolumbo]

They aren’t expanding everywhere that can handle it. Connecticut can absolutely support a P2 school, yet we aren’t allowed. We can’t be the only market in this situation.

I’d argue that several B12 schools, several ACC schools and others can do it. Regardless, plenty of other schools can support a very successful G5 level program that can play with the big boys. Those schools will no longer be worth supporting (Boise St, Memphis, USF, SDSU etc).

Cal, Tex, and Fla, the 3 most populous states, will have a total of 5 P2 programs, while Miss alone has 2.
NY is 4th with none
NC is 9th with none

It's whack and yes there will continue to be movement, but the process is just absurd. In the end, the Big 12 and ACC will be far behind money-wise but I don't think they'll be that far behind on the field. G5 will struggle and it really isn't fair to everyone outside the P2.

 

[Hoophound]

I’ll just bet on the NFL

Gamblers bet on both. College football adds another way to gamble and there’s a lot of games.

 

[Ha Who]

Gamblers bet on both. College football adds another way to gamble and there’s a lot of games.

That’s why they are in the red. I have been in the black because I bet on the big leagues

 

[The Yakk]

But isn't that what the SEC and (especially) the B1G are doing...........expanding to just about every city that can possibly support a B1G/SEC team? Giving fans that have migrated to other regions of the country direct access to their product?

You are not asking the right question.

There is a certain amount of money flowing through the sport now, and that money has been enough to support bloated media payouts; massive salaries for head coaches at 100+ schools; generous NIL payments/recruiting inducements; and on and on.

That money comes entirely from the high level of fan engagement for those 100+ schools. We are the ones who buy the game tickets and pay for cable/streaming and watch the commercials.

When the P2 gets their way, they will cut out 70% of that engagement and probably close to 70% of the money flow. They all think they will be grabbing a bigger slice of the same pie, but in reality they will be stomping on the pie and throwing it in the garbage.

This is such an obvious outcome that one wonders if the decision-makers at these P2 schools ever actually attended college.

 

[Rufus]

You are not asking the right question.

There is a certain amount of money flowing through the sport now, and that money has been enough to support bloated media payouts; massive salaries for head coaches at 100+ schools; generous NIL payments/recruiting inducements; and on and on.

That money comes entirely from the high level of fan engagement for those 100+ schools. We are the ones who buy the game tickets and pay for cable/streaming and watch the commercials.

When the P2 gets their way, they will cut out 70% of that engagement and probably close to 70% of the money flow. They all think they will be grabbing a bigger slice of the same pie, but in reality they will be stomping on the pie and throwing it in the garbage.

This is such an obvious outcome that one wonders if the decision-makers at these P2 schools ever actually attended college.

I don't think that is an obvious outcome at all. Even if most people don't care for Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, or Georgia, a lot of people like to gamble. And a lot of people will be betting on the winners of the OSU-Michigan and Alabama-Georgia games. And those people betting money will be watching to see if they win or not.

Even if there is consolidation, the have-nots will still have access to the CFP, so there will always be "hope" for everyone. If UConn, or Wake Forest, or Oregon State go 12-0 and are the highest ranked non P4 conference winner, they are guaranteed a spot, even if they aren't ranked in the Top 12 otherwise.

Does anyone think the Ohio State @ Oregon game this fall won't be one of the highest rated regular season games of the year? Or Georgia @ Texas? You think those games won't have more eyeballs than Ohio State @ Indiana, Cal @ Oregon, Georgia @ Vanderbilt or Cincinnati @ Texas?

Do you not see how being in the B1G will turn the 4 PAC schools into nationwide brands because they will have the most nationwide exposure they have ever had? Bigger games. Better time slots. Better channels. Higher ratings.

I don't buy into this being a big mistake at all. If UConn can't get a lifeboat to the P2, our best hope is to be in whatever conference is third best in the nation as the end game. That should be the goal.

 

[billybud]

Reslly. Only about 30 or so programs make up the majority of national tv watching. Even if you are a San Diego State, Akron, Wake , or Georgia State fan , you probably watch football on Saturdays and it will likely be a P2 team. Possibly P3…

 

[History Geek]

...

Even if there is consolidation, the have-nots will still have access to the CFP, so there will always be "hope" for everyone. If UConn, or Wake Forest, or Oregon State go 12-0 and are the highest ranked non P4 conference winner, they are guaranteed a spot, even if they aren't ranked in the Top 12 otherwise.

...

I don't buy into this being a big mistake at all. If UConn can't get a lifeboat to the P2, our best hope is to be in whatever conference is third best in the nation as the end game. That should be the goal.

Rufus' post, in toto, is what they are betting on. We will see if they are right.

The first paragraph I reposted is how they are going to keep Congress happy. The second is spot-on. As long as the non-football sports have realistic chances to compete for national championships, I'm OK with football competing for non-P2 conference championships and the privilege to get pounded in the first round of the CFP.

 

[Rufus]

What to expect from college football in 2024: Realignment, a 12-team playoff and a Saban-less SEC

College football will experience a lot of change in 2024. We're here to walk you through all of it.

www.espn.com

"People enjoy watching games," Aresco said. "If USC is playing Ohio State, are people going to say, 'Yeah, it's a Big Ten game now, I have no interest.' I don't think so. This sport has a hold on America, moreso than any other sport."

 

[Rufus]

https://footballscoop.com/news/the-101-most-watched-games-of-the-2023-college-football-season

The top 100:

1. Michigan-Alabama, Rose Bowl -- 27.76 million (ESPN)
2. Michigan-Washington, CFP National Championship -- 25.05 million (ESPN)
3. Ohio State-Michigan -- 19.07 million (Fox)
4. Washington-Texas, Sugar Bowl -- 18.77 million (ESPN)
5. Georgia-Alabama, SEC Championship -- 17.52 million (CBS)
6. Florida State-Georgia, Orange Bowl -- 10.39 million (ESPN)
7. Colorado-Oregon -- 10.03 million (ABC)
8. Michigan-Iowa, Big Ten Championship -- 10.02 million (Fox)
9. Ohio State-Notre Dame -- 9.98 million (NBC)
10. Penn State-Ohio State -- 9.96 million (Fox)
11. Ohio State-Missouri, Cotton Bowl -- 9.72 million (ESPN)
12. Colorado State-Colorado -- 9.3 million (ESPN)
13. Oregon-Washington, Pac-12 Championship -- 9.25 million (ABC)
14. LSU-Florida State -- 9.17 million (ABC)
15. Michigan-Penn State -- 9.16 million (Fox)
16. Alabama-Auburn -- 9.09 million (CBS)
17. LSU-Alabama -- 8.82 million (CBS)
18. Texas-Alabama -- 8.76 million (ESPN)
19. Nebraska-Colorado -- 8.73 million (Fox)
20. Tennessee-Alabama -- 8.01 million (CBS)
21. Oklahoma State-Texas, Big 12 Championship -- 7.89 million (ABC)
22. Oklahoma-Texas -- 7.87 million (ABC)
23. Ole Miss-Penn State, Peach Bowl -- 7.77 million (ESPN)
24. Colorado-TCU -- 7.26 million (Fox)
25. USC-Colorado -- 7.24 million (Fox)
26. Alabama-Texas A&M -- 7.23 million (CBS)
27. Army-Navy -- 7.18 million (CBS)
28. Oregon-Washington -- 7.04 million (ABC)
29. Louisville-Florida State, ACC Championship -- 7.03 million (ABC)
30. Missouri-Georgia -- 7 million (CBS)
31. Tennessee-Iowa, Citrus Bowl -- 6.80 million (ABC)
32. Florida State-Clemson -- 6.71 million (ABC)
33. USC-Notre Dame -- 6.43 million (NBC)
34. Georgia-Auburn -- 6.40 million (CBS)
35. Georgia-Florida -- 5.95 million (CBS)
36. Washington State-Washington -- 5.85 million (Fox)
37. Georgia-Tennessee -- 5.73 million (CBS)
38. Michigan-Maryland -- 5.43 million (Fox)
39. South Carolina-Georgia -- 5.42 million (CBS)
40. Georgia-Georgia Tech -- 5.33 million (ABC)
41. Notre Dame-Duke -- 5.32 million (ABC)
42. Tennessee-Florida -- 5.31 million (ESPN)
43. Utah-Washington -- 5.17 million (Fox)
44. Notre Dame-Louisville -- 5.12 million (ABC)
45. Florida State-Florida -- 5.07 million (ESPN)
46. Ohio State-Wisconsin -- 4.87 million (NBC)
47. Alabama-South Florida -- 4.84 million (ABC)
48. Ole Miss-Georgia -- 4.83 million (ESPN)
49. Washington-Oregon State -- 4.73 million (ABC)
50. Oregon-Liberty, Fiesta Bowl -- 4.67 million (ESPN)
51. Colorado-UCLA -- 4.66 million (ABC)
52. Ohio State-Indiana -- 4.65 million (Fox)
53. LSU-Wisconsin, ReliaQuest Bowl -- 4.61 million (ESPN2)
53. Ole Miss-Alabama -- 4.61 million (CBS)
55. Maryland-Ohio State -- 4.51 million (Fox)
56. Michigan-Nebraska -- 4.48 million (Fox)
57. Washington-USC -- 4.45 million (ABC)
58. Clemson-Duke -- 4.39 million (ESPN)
58. Iowa-Nebraska -- 4.39 million (CBS)
60. Texas A&M-Tennessee -- 4.38 million (CBS)
61. Kansas State-NC State, Pop-Tarts Bowl -- 4.31 million (ESPN)
62. Miami-Florida State -- 4.14 million (ABC)
63. Oregon State-Oregon -- 4.12 million (Fox)
64. Missouri-Arkansas -- 4.09 million (CBS)
65. Duke-Florida State -- 4.08 million (ABC)
66. Texas A&M-Miami -- 4.02 million (ABC)
67. Ohio State-Rutgers -- 3.96 million (CBS)
68. Oklahoma-Arizona, Alamo Bowl -- 3.93 million (ESPN)
69. West Virginia-North Carolina, Mayo Bowl -- 3.84 million (ESPN)
70. Texas Tech-Texas -- 3.77 million (ABC)
71. Oklahoma-Oklahoma State -- 3.76 million (ABC)
72. Michigan-Michigan State -- 3.73 million (NBC)
72. LSU-Ole Miss -- 3.72 million (ESPN)
74. Tennessee-Missouri -- 3.62 million (CBS)
75. Memphis-Iowa State, Liberty Bowl -- 3.60 million (ESPN)
75. Oklahoma-Kansas -- 3.60 million (ABC)
77. Michigan State-Ohio State -- 3.57 million (NBC)
78. Navy-Notre Dame -- 3.56 million (NBC)
79. Indiana-Michigan -- 3.55 million (Fox)
80. Louisville-USC, Holiday Bowl -- 3.51 million (Fox)
81. West Virginia-Penn State -- 3.50 million (NBC)
82. Nebraska-Minnesota -- 3.49 million (Fox)
83. Florida State-Boston College -- 3.48 million (ABC)
84. Clemson-Kentucky, Gator Bowl -- 3.43 million (ESPN)
84. Arkansas-Alabama -- 3.43 million (ESPN)
86. Indiana-Penn State -- 3.40 million (CBS)
86. North Carolina-South Carolina -- 3.40 million (ABC)
88. Penn State-Michigan State -- 3.38 million (NBC)
88. Iowa-Iowa State -- 3.38 million (Fox)
90. Alabama-Mississippi State -- 3.35 million (ESPN)
91. Kansas-Texas -- 3.32 million (ABC)
92. Iowa State-Kansas State -- 3.29 million (Fox)
92. Stanford-Colorado -- 3.29 million (ESPN)
94. Notre Dame-Oregon State, Sun Bowl -- 3.26 million (CBS)
95. Notre Dame-Clemson -- 3.24 million (ABC)
96. Utah-USC -- 3.23 million (ABC)
96. Oregon State-San Jose State -- 3.23 million (CBS)
98. Penn State-Illinois -- 3.22 million (Fox)
99. Rice-Texas -- 3.21 million (Fox)
100. Florida-Utah -- 3.19 million (Fox)
100. Kentucky-Georgia -- 3.19 million (ESPN)

 

[nelsonmuntz]

What to expect from college football in 2024: Realignment, a 12-team playoff and a Saban-less SEC

College football will experience a lot of change in 2024. We're here to walk you through all of it.

www.espn.com

"People enjoy watching games," Aresco said. "If USC is playing Ohio State, are people going to say, 'Yeah, it's a Big Ten game now, I have no interest.' I don't think so. This sport has a hold on America, moreso than any other sport."

Which schools will UConn fans watch, subscribe to streaming services for, and buy merchandise for? If you can't answer that question, then what are you talking about?

You know who thinks they will get all the non-P2 fans? The NBA and NFL. And I think they know a lot more about this than you do.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Reslly. Only about 30 or so programs make up the majority of national tv watching. Even if you are a San Diego State, Akron, Wake , or Georgia State fan , you probably watch football on Saturdays and it will likely be a P2 team. Possibly P3…

All those fans watch Michigan/Penn State because their team is in the mix at some level. If you take that away, then you are betting on millions of people watching a minor league game they have no personal affiliation with. Sure.

If you are right, and contraction is such a great idea, how come MLB, NFL and NBA have not done it yet?

 

[billybud]

One might asked why the NFL hasn't expanded with only 32 teams and a nation of viewers.

 

[Marbles90]

Which schools will UConn fans watch, subscribe to streaming services for, and buy merchandise for? If you can't answer that question, then what are you talking about?

You know who thinks they will get all the non-P2 fans? The NBA and NFL. And I think they know a lot more about this than you do.

This is where I disagree with you about pay-per-view or pay-per-team type streaming. How many of those top 100 games on the list did you watch as a UConn fan (and don't say you did because UConn was somehow in the mix)? I watched a bunch of them because I am a college football fan. Would I pay-per-view the Penn State / Michigan game or subscribe to either team's service? No. I probably would not even pay-per-view the CFP Championship. But if it was on - either via linear TV or via some kind of package I was paying for - like YouTubeTV, I will flip it on. I don't think streaming is going to be pay for your team and that is it. I agree with you things will look very different, but I am not sold that it is all or none.

 

[billybud]

The NFL doesn't have a team in five of the SEC states...Yet I'll bet football fans there watch the NFL...when I was a boy in Pensacola, there were no MLB, NBA or NFL teams in the south (I don't count Dallas, 650 miles away).

I watched the Yankees and St. Louis in baseball, and whoever was on in NFL....In the days of no ESPN and just ABC, NBC, and CBS, things were so different.

 

[John]

All those fans watch Michigan/Penn State because their team is in the mix at some level. If you take that away, then you are betting on millions of people watching a minor league game they have no personal affiliation with. Sure.

If you are right, and contraction is such a great idea, how come MLB, NFL and NBA have not done it yet?

So you don't watch Michigan/Penn State (or any equivalent big time game) because UConn isn't in the mix?

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Reslly. Only about 30 or so programs make up the majority of national tv watching. Even if you are a San Diego State, Akron, Wake , or Georgia State fan , you probably watch football on Saturdays and it will likely be a P2 team. Possibly P3…

They may be true but it seems to me that is an irrelevant statistic or minimally a dangerous assumption.
Almost every FBS football team has a following of varying size and I suspect fans of those schools make up a good potion of those audiences for the Big Games.
Having an elite group in theory is someone’s dream but the downside risk of marginalizing a huge percentage of your audience could destroy the future of the sport . That’s shear stupidity. Is the men’s basketball tournament worth more now at 68 than 16-32- or even 48 ?
Going from 6 conferences to 4 hasn’t changed the number of P teams in fact there are more FBS teams now than in 2012 and we have an expanded playoff system allowing everyone to dream the impossible dream
The NCAA has recently put in draconian rules that will impede future growth of the sport but let’s see if they can get by a legal challenge.
If football is a business than they should understand the objective purpose of a business
1. Make money now
2. Put steps into place that will assure you continue to make money well into the future

PS Not to be confused with the objective of a non profit which are to insure a few incompetent administrators accumulate as much personal wealth as possibly by getting the general public to believe your actual performing a civic duty.

 

[billybud]

Basketball is completely different....it is the tournament that draws viewers.....and the whole thing about the 8-12 seeds is the thought "so I have a chance". And they do not.

Like I have a chance to win $900 million in the Megaball..."So you say there's a chance ?" I can pay a couple of bucks and dream. There is nothing there but an illusion and being able to dream.

The odds for a team seeded 9 through 12 to win the NC are 0.0% Has not been done...an illusion, a dream.

The true odds for one of the #1-4 seeds to win the NC is 92%

The impossible dream is right...poor Quixote,,,modern clinicians have diagnosed the windmill fighting knight as having a mental disorder...persistent delusional disorder.

 

[Kolumbo]

Basketball is completely different....it is the tournament that draws viewers.....and the whole thing about the 8-12 seeds is the thought "so I have a chance". And they do not.

Like I have a chance to win $900 million in the Megaball..."So you say there's a chance ?" I can pay a couple of bucks and dream. There is nothing there but an illusion and being able to dream.

The odds for a team seeded 9 through 12 to win the NC are 0.0% Has not been done...an illusion, a dream.

The true odds for one of the #1-4 seeds to win the NC is 92%

The impossible dream is right...poor Quixote,,,modern clinicians have diagnosed the windmill fighting knight as having a mental disorder...persistent delusional disorder.

Yes, completely different. Any basketball team can find some special kid or kids who are flat out fun to watch and can carry the team, even mid-majors, to a few victories. That's entertainment and the cinderellas are always especially fun to watch. In football G5's and some P5's have no shot whatsoever at winning a championship but they play for bowl wins. Fans watch their AAC and MAC teams and they watch the national championship. I don't think that will change no matter what happens with the P2.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Basketball is completely different....it is the tournament that draws viewers.....and the whole thing about the 8-12 seeds is the thought "so I have a chance". And they do not.

Like I have a chance to win $900 million in the Megaball..."So you say there's a chance ?" I can pay a couple of bucks and dream. There is nothing there but an illusion and being able to dream.

The odds for a team seeded 9 through 12 to win the NC are 0.0% Has not been done...an illusion, a dream.

The true odds for one of the #1-4 seeds to win the NC is 92%

The impossible dream is right...poor Quixote,,,modern clinicians have diagnosed the windmill fighting knight as having a mental disorder...persistent delusional disorder.

Is there any more delusion demographic than sports fandom .
250 countries start out to win the World Cup and whether their team even qualified many of those fans will continue to follow until it’s concluded
My point is take away the dream and you risk losing that fan . Bleed too many fans and your sport becomes a sideshow .

 

[dayooper]

Is there any more delusion demographic than sports fandom .
250 countries start out to win the World Cup and whether their team even qualified many of those fans will continue to follow until it’s concluded
My point is take away the dream and you risk losing that fan . Bleed too many fans and your sport becomes a sideshow .

But for some, the dream was never there. Almost all MAC fans know they aren’t winning a championship. With the 6 auto bids, in the 12 team playoff, it gives G5 teams a chance to be apart of the tournament. In 10 years, only 1 G5 team was ever in the 4 team championship (Cincinnati). This year, Liberty would have been part of the 12 team playoff. That auto bid is more access than any G5 school has ever had.

 

[billybud]

Maggy Carlyle, Senior Vice President and General Counsel, Detroit Lions

With college football on the cusp of moving to an employment model, and conference realignment further consolidating media broadcast rights, there is no better time for the NFL to take an ownership stake in its primary development league. Acquiring the CFP, the NFL will be best positioned to launch a College Football League, inviting the current top-tier FBS schools who have the resources and make the investment to compete nationally. The NFL can use the CFP and CFL to directly develop coaches, refs and players; test out new rules; improve scheduling for the NFL and CFL; extend its international reach; and grow the game of football.

It is just her opinion...but it is sneakily close to what some of us have been suspecting....

 

[Rufus]

UNC System president, board could stop UNC, NC State from changing conferences :: WRALSportsFan.com

The UNC System president and the Board of Governors could give itself authority to stop conference affiliation changes among in-state public schools.

www.wralsportsfan.com

 

[buddy]

I doubt they will turn down a $100 milllion invitation to the B1G for North Carolina.

 

[ramses 2.0]

I doubt they will turn down a $100 milllion invitation to the B1G for North Carolina.

I wouldn't put money on that & UNC will not end up in the B1G unless it's a brokered deal that has NCSU going to the SEC