What I struggle to reconcile RE: ESPN

[whaler11]

It seems that ESPN has had a lot of influence on realignment. I don't think there is anyone who thinks they have just sat on the outside and watched things go down without exerting any leverage anywhere. How much they have been involved is probably a matter of taste.

So if we work under the assumption that they are exerting some influence on the process in theory to improve their own business position... what the hell is their strategy?

ESPN owns the ACC. Their coverage at times seems that they almost treat them as a 'most favored nation'. Their Carolina/Duke treatment is over the top. Many think that ESPN attempted to destroy the Big East to further improve the lot of the ACC. The Syracuse/Pittsburgh move for all intents and purposes was the final nail in the Big East coffin - and the first of the conference moves that truly damaged the Big East as a basketball property - which ESPN has always seemed to value highly.

ESPN then plays hardball with the ACC putting them at a distinct advantage to the Big XII, and it looks as though Clemson and Florida State may not even survive the 2 week anniversary of the deal being announced. It becomes almost impossible to keep North Carolina, North Carolina State, VPI, Virginia, Georgia Tech if the first two dominoes fall. I don't think any of those schools WANT to leave the ACC, but they can see the position that Louisville, Rutgers, UConn, Cincinnati and South Florida see themselves in and it's either jump or your athletic program is destroyed.

So a potential outcome is that the Big 10, SEC and Big 12 are all stronger than they were just a few months ago, the Big East is still the little engine that can't and the ACC is a decimated shell that could potentially be so weak that it's not even attractive to the 5 eastern Big East schools.

Am I missing the end game where this turns out to be a positive for ESPN? They of course have pieces of all those conferences but they share them with competitors like Fox, CBS and the BTN. Football of course is the driver, but if ESPN didn't value ACC and BE basketball highly they had odd way of showing it as it dominates a good amount of their winter programming. It wasn't that long ago they were using Duke/Carolina to leverage systems into adding ESPN2.

So what is their goal? I have a hard time believing their goal is to reduce the value of the Big East and ACC so they can save a few pennies on those contracts. I also have a hard time believing that they fear NBCS leveraging a weakened Big East into a true rival. Is there something I'm missing here, or has whatever they were trying to do blown up in their faces? Are they playing chicken with Notre Dame - show ND legitimate scenarios that make their life more difficult so they can make an ACC + ND offer that is competitive with the Big XII and keeps everyone in the league and damages NBC's college football relevance? At that point the Big XII has to move on at least Louisville so they can get their Championship game money - and it's hard to see the Big East surviving the departure of Louisville.

 

[ZooCougar]

Wouldn't be the first time an arrogant grand strategy backfired. It may be that they never had one, and they tried to play puppet master with realignment, but never identified an end state.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

I posted this in a different thread on the Boneyard.

1. ESPN knew there a was good shot of FSU/Clemson leaving.
2. ESPN's tv deal was under market for a 14 team league including FSU/Clemson.
3. ESPN's tv deal would be just about right for a 14 team that then substituted Rutgers and UConn.
4. Assuming UConn/Rutgers leave, I would imagine the BE Catholics separate from the football cluster f.
5. The only remaining valuable BE Football programs would be Louisville (who has a good shot at the BigXII), Cincy and USF.
6. ESPN could still bid on BE Hoops with say a Xavier, St. Joes, Butler, etc. added.
7. BE Football would be reduced to literally C-USA and NBC Sports could have that if they wanted it.

 

[SubbaBub]

ROI. Someone else did a nice summary of the cost to get a big chunk of the BE value by paying 40M to the ACC instead of 155M for the whole BE.

Maximum amount of content that people will actually watch for the least amount of money.

Why pay two rights contracts when you can boost the value of one for minimal dollars? (Syracuse/Pitt) tips the value of the Big Monday BB games toward the ACC. No longer does the ACC game have to include either Duke or UNC for people to watch it.

With the BE FB crippled in value, they can keep the entire FB/BB package at a discount or let the FB portion go to someone else and keep BB which is chump change, even if its the biggest BB rights contract in the nation.

 

[whaler11]

ROI. Someone else did a nice summary of the cost to get a big chunk of the BE value by paying 40M to the ACC instead of 155M for the whole BE.

Maximum amount of content that people will actually watch for the least amount of money.

Why pay two rights contracts when you can boost the value of one for minimal dollars? (Syracuse/Pitt) tips the value of the Big Monday BB games toward the ACC. No longer does the ACC game have to include either Duke or UNC for people to watch it.

With the BE FB crippled in value, they can keep the entire FB/BB package at a discount or let the FB portion go to someone else and keep BB which is chump change, even if its the biggest BB rights contract in the nation.

College sports doesn't really work like that though. If your team or school isn't in the mix most people care a heck of a lot less about the rest of the country.

 

[whaler11]

I posted this in a different thread on the Boneyard.

1. ESPN knew there a was good shot of FSU/Clemson leaving.
2. ESPN's tv deal was under market for a 14 team league including FSU/Clemson.
3. ESPN's tv deal would be just about right for a 14 team that then substituted Rutgers and UConn.
4. Assuming UConn/Rutgers leave, I would imagine the BE Catholics separate from the football cluster f.
5. The only remaining valuable BE Football programs would be Louisville (who has a good shot at the BigXII), Cincy and USF.
6. ESPN could still bid on BE Hoops with say a Xavier, St. Joes, Butler, etc. added.
7. BE Football would be reduced to literally C-USA and NBC Sports could have that if they wanted it.

Problem becomes the ACC can't keep everyone together without FSU and Clemson. That seems pretty obvious.

The catholic only basketball league is decent but the Big East wasn't getting a ton of cash for hoops and the 5 most valuable schools would be gone.

 

[RS9999X]

Based on stadium and attendance and fan base Clemson and FSU dwarf the ACC. V Tech is very respectable.

Miami and UNC are the only two others worth speaking of. Miami has its TV draw and empty rust heap of a stadium. Nothing else. UNC's draw is obvious.

The rest are BE teams--Virginia, Maryland, Georgia Tech, NC State -- these are Pitt and SU and BC types of programs/ Wake is Cincy and Duke is Nova waiting to upgrade. Worst still--none fo these are state marquee football programs: V-Tech, Navy, Georgia (SEC) and UNC are the better football options in each market. FSU beats Miami.

The game here isn't ESPN ---- its ABC. National audiences. It's the death of program TV in a world where Sports dominates live programming.

ACC ratings overall suck. FSU holds their own and to a lesser extent Clemson and V Tech. Miami in a good year is natonal draw.

Media consultants and market demographics and conference commissioners and boosters are driving this consolidation. All ESPN has to do is listen and quote market prices to drive this market.

The Raycom contract was an indication the ACC is weak. It's a glorified Tier II and Regional Conference except for FSU (and Miami in a good year).

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I tend to agree with Whaler that this has not worked out particularly well for ESPN. They will have ended up paying much more for the Big East component parts than they would have if they made a reasonable offer for the combined league a year ago. The Pac 12 and Big 10, both of which have their own networks, are survivors, while the ACC and Big East, which were 100% ESPN properties, are going to be in some kind of mish-mash league.

On the other hand, the Big 12 will have dramatically improved its content, at least in football. I think ESPN will try protect the more marketable programs in both sports, which is why I think it is slightly better than 50/50 that Louisville ends up in the Big 12.

It appears like the ACC contract is a placeholder, which may be why Swofford agreed to it. If the ACC loses 6-7 teams, the remaining schools will add UConn, Rutgers and whoever for football, and I think ESPN may try to bring over the Catholics too.


North:
Syracuse
Pitt
UConn
BCU
Rutgers
Cincinnati

South:

Duke
Miami - there continue to be rumors that the mother of all NCAA sledgehammers is about to drop here.
Wake Forest
USF
Maryland
Villanova?

Plus: Georgetown, Seton Hall, Providence, Marquette, Depaul, St. Johns, Notre Dame

If there was ever a time to cut Seton Hall loose, now would be it.

Not much of a football conference, but still the #1 league in hoops.

 

[RS9999X]

I doubt the Big 12 gets consensus for more than 12 teams to get to a conference game-- FSU and Clemson.

ACC hems and haws over adding UConn, Rutgers, USF or Louisville (and wastes time on ND of course). Adds UConn and Louisville. Red Dwarf cries foul.

 

[NEforceUConn]

I doubt the Big 12 gets consensus for more than 12 teams to get to a conference game-- FSU and Clemson.

ACC hems and haws over adding UConn, Rutgers, USF or Louisville (and wastes time on ND of course). Adds UConn and Louisville. Red Dwarf cries foul.

I'm in this camp too. ACC then becomes number one BB conference in the world.

 

[zls44]

I love how the inability to figure out how ESPN is "running realignment" doesn't prove the obvious truth that they aren't to any of you.

They aren't calling the shots like you all want them to be. THAT'S why you can't figure out their strategy. It's like being unable to figure out what my strategy is for moving to Mars.

Sorry that doesn't fit your narrative.

 

[traitor71]

empty rust heap of a stadium

Which stadium is that?

 

[junglehusky]

I love how the inability to figure out how ESPN is "running realignment" doesn't prove the obvious truth that they aren't to any of you.

They aren't calling the shots like you all want them to be. THAT'S why you can't figure out their strategy. It's like being unable to figure out what my strategy is for moving to Mars.

Sorry that doesn't fit your narrative.

Or... that's what they want you to think!!!

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Or... that's what they want you to think!!!

Where's Conspiracy Kitty???

 

[UConnDan97]

Problem becomes the ACC can't keep everyone together without FSU and Clemson. That seems pretty obvious.

The catholic only basketball league is decent but the Big East wasn't getting a ton of cash for hoops and the 5 most valuable schools would be gone.

Whaler11, I think that you hit the nail on the head without knowing it. The point is that I don't believe that ESPN ever thought FSU and Clemson would leave the ACC! (and yes, I'm aware that they haven't yet). If you're ESPN, you have orchestrated Syracuse and Pitt to come to one of your long-term properties; the ACC. You have undervalued the Big East, which you will assume will now have to come back to you, tail-between-legs, and accept a lower contract than the one they rejected. You also know that Fla St and Clemson will never go to the SEC because of the in-state rivals Florida and SC protecting their turf. After the Big12 turmoil of Texas/OU/OSU/TT almost to the Pac, there is no way that ESPN could imagine that they will rise like a phoenix out of the ashes and snag both TCU and WVU to revamp their product and nail a great tv contract.

So all of the sudden, ESPN has pulled strings thinking it will have at least 2 of the Big 6 conferences on the cheap, when in hindsight, they may have created a scenario where 1 of the Big 6 is either gone or no longer theirs, and the other long term property may be destroyed by the very force it created. If FSU and Clemson stay put, ESPN is a mastermind (mastermind scumbag!). If they leave, ESPN is a bunch of dumba$$es. Welcome to the crooked world of FBS football...

 

[UConnDan97]

To add to my recent post, just look at the lack of coverage that ESPN has dedicated to the whole FSU and Clemson to Big12 rumor. While other outlets like NBC and CBS seem to be covering it, ESPN is acting like nothing is happening. When they aren't avoiding it, they are playing it down with inert articles; I could only find one example over the last 5 days where it's even mentioned:

http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/39093/swofford-talks-about-florida-state-bcs

Not shocking at all. They are clearly in "damage control"...

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If ESPN wants to save the ACC, now would be the time to move.

 

[IthacaMatt]

So a potential outcome is that the Big 10, SEC and Big 12 are all stronger than they were just a few months ago, the Big East is still the little engine that can't and the ACC is a decimated shell that could potentially be so weak that it's not even attractive to the 5 eastern Big East schools.

Am I missing the end game where this turns out to be a positive for ESPN? They of course have pieces of all those conferences but they share them with competitors like Fox, CBS and the BTN. Football of course is the driver, but if ESPN didn't value ACC and BE basketball highly they had odd way of showing it as it dominates a good amount of their winter programming. It wasn't that long ago they were using Duke/Carolina to leverage systems into adding ESPN2.
.

This is why I doubt that ESPN is really trying to blow up the ACC, after it just did so to the Big East.

If you think about it, the Big 10 and Big 12 are midwestern time zone schools. If they kill the ACC, that only leaves them the SEC in the Eastern time zone, which nobody outside of NASCAR country cares about during the winter, and doesn't provide enough programming all by themselves to carry things in the fall during football season.

For the ACC contract to be so back loaded, I've got to figure that all the rest of the big conference contracts are about the same in that respect.

Is ESPN really going to leave themselves with no top tier programming for the East Coast ? I mean, that's still where the vast majority of people still live in this country.

 

[HistoryMajor]

NONSENSE ! Do folks really believe that ESPN conspired to help the Big East fail? Those who believe that are probably in the camp with those who dispute Obamma's birthplace. Or the same folks believe the Oliver Stone JFK conspiracy. Or perhaps they even believe that Roosevelt knew in advance that the Germans were going to bomb Pearl Harbor and didn't tell anone!! Nonsense I say to all who believe ESPN wants the Big East to fail.

 

[UConnDan97]

NONSENSE ! Do folks really believe that ESPN conspired to help the Big East fail?

Yes. For more on that, look to our special ESPN correspondent, Gene DeFillippo:

http://thebiglead.com/index.php/201...expansion-and-his-school-blocked-connecticut/

And I hope you were kidding ala Animal House about Roosevelt knowing that the Germans were going to bomb Pearl Harbor without telling anyone, HistoryMajor...

 

[HistoryMajor]

Dan - you of all people, a prolific (and intelligent) contributor should know that according to THIS BOARD, the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor. I rest my case. Now Dan tell me - was Obama born in the USA ?

 

[UConnDan97]

Dan - you of all people, a prolific (and intelligent) contributor should know that according to THIS BOARD, the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor. I rest my case. Now Dan tell me - was Obama born in the USA ?

Alright, I was just checking. Based on the way you worded the sentence, I was concerned. Also, I don't know where Obama was born, but I heard that Navy Seal Team 6 got him in Abottabad...

...TWO can play at that game!!

 

[UConnDan97]

Dan - you of all people, a prolific (and intelligent) contributor

Also, I think you were writing the above sentence about HuskyfanDan! But I appreciate the compliment!

 

[CL82]

Where's Conspiracy Kitty???

With Junglehusky and UConnDan97 stating the obvious
Conspiracy Kitty just sits quietly in the corner nodding proudly.

 

[Dann]

Also, I think you were writing the above sentence about HuskyfanDan! But I appreciate the compliment!

he said "Dan - you of all people, a prolific (and intelligent) contributor"

thats not me lol