Everyone knows NBC wants in, and despite the opinions of media experts Z, Whaler and WingU, they will pay up. How much? It will be a big number. Maybe not ACC big, but big.
ESPN is not done. If they spent $140 million a year for the next 8-10 years to raid the Big East, and don't put the league out of business, they royally screwed up. That is over a billion dollars they will have essentially flushed down the toilet to get the rights to Pitt/Wake, Syracuse/Maryland and WVU/Iowa State. If they don't put the Big East 6 feet under, the would have been better off leaving the league alone. So what does ESPN do?
1) Stop where they are. Over a billion dollars over the next 10 years for WVU, TCU, Syracuse and Pitt is stupid enough, it is time to cut their losses. Trying to finish off the Big East looks to be more expensive that it is worth. The reality is that the league is worth more to NBC than it is to ESPN, and ESPN just has to settle for what it has.
2) Come back and raid the Big East again. Take Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn, and/or Rutgers to ESPN leagues, since the incremental cost is not that big, and call it a day. Would have been cheaper to leave the Big East alone, but they have gone this far, might as well finish the job.
3) Someone at ESPN says "enough" with these massive forward commitments for Big East teams. ESPN does not need more content, and the league is worth more to NBC than it is to ESPN. Upon further review, paying the ACC $100 million more per year for Pitt and Syracuse doesn't seem so smart either, and coughing up another $20 million for WVU also seems like a bad idea, especially when the Big 12 would be fine at 9 members. It tells the ACC that it is not going to increase its contract one nickel, and if it wants to add Pitt and Syracuse, the ACC can split the pie 2 more ways. WVU is less expensive, and Fox is picking up about 40% of that check, so maybe they cover the nut, maybe they don't. A negotiated settlement is worked out to ease Pitt and Syracuse back to the Big East and save face for everyone.
Those are the three choices for ESPN. I think 1 is most likely, followed closely by 2. 3 is less likely, but definitely still on the table. A billion dollar forward commitment for Pitt and Syracuse has to be giving the divisional CFO at ESPN ulcers when the whole point of the move, to put the Big East out of business, looks like it will not work out as planned.