Villanova Scouting Report

[AntG168]

Its no coincidence that when Whitmore came back that this Nova team started winning... he's a stud.
Frankly, I'm a bit concerned about our matchup with him at PF.
Karaban is about the same height, but gives up over 20 lbs on Whitmore and has struggled defending some bigger guys lately.
Hoping that Samson Johnson is good to go and can get some run. Hope he can be effective, but there's gonna be some rust.

They haven’t actually beaten anybody. A couple of those wins were very unimpressive. They’ll get up for this game so it won’t be a walk in the park. But this still isn’t an impressive Villanova team

 

[mauconnfan]

Cam Whitmore meet Andre Jackson

Guessing Andre gets Daniels but who knows. I know Karaban will be fine just needs to move the feet and not reach. Newton needs to keep Armstrong from getting too much into the paint and we need to hope Dixon isn't making 3s.

Tough, different style match up will be fun one to watch.

 

[Storrs South]

Guessing Andre gets Daniels but who knows. I know Karaban will be fine just needs to move the feet and not reach. Newton needs to keep Armstrong from getting too much into the paint and we need to hope Dixon isn't making 3s.

Tough, different style match up will be fun one to watch.

Full 40 (Nova Podcast) said on @gwhuskyfan's pod he expects Andre to switch off since Whitmore doesn't start for them (yet).

I bet Hurley is telling Andre he gets Cam since he is an expected lotto pick and wants him to showcase his D v. NBA talent, but as you infer, Daniels stirs the drink imo. He is a good player that is a true 3 level scorer. I can see Hurley adjusting like against Georgetown last week with Spears and putting Andre on Daniels if he starts going off.

 

[auror]

Their last 5 games are all in their top 7 games of the year by performance according to BartTorvik. That being said our first 12 games were all better than their 2nd best performance all year. And we have 9 games more impressive than their best.

Nova's offense is still elite and forces tough matchups but they're not going to be able to stop us. They don't have rim protection, they don't rebound well, they don't force a poor shoot %, and they don't force turnovers. In the words of Office Space, "What is it you say you do here?"

Since Whitmore's return they're ranked 57th by BartTorvik. Shooting 38% from 3, both shooting splits for (barely top 50) and against slightly better (but still mediocre), low turnover rate for and forced, mediocre to bad rebounding, no fouls given on D (like Butler),

We should be able to generate some easy baskets through Sanogo and offensive boards and then just have to lean on home crowd to help force a few turnovers and should be able to out execute and play harder (using depth) than them on both ends.

 

[freshler40]

Their last 5 games are all in their top 7 games of the year by performance according to BartTorvik. That being said our first 12 games were all better than their 2nd best performance all year. And we have 9 games more impressive than their best.

Nova's offense is still elite and forces tough matchups but they're not going to be able to stop us. They don't have rim protection, they don't rebound well, they don't force a poor shoot %, and they don't force turnovers. In the words of Office Space, "What is it you say you do here?"

Since Whitmore's return they're ranked 57th by BartTorvik. Shooting 38% from 3, both shooting splits for (barely top 50) and against slightly better (but still mediocre), low turnover rate for and forced, mediocre to bad rebounding, no fouls given on D (like Butler),

We should be able to generate some easy baskets through Sanogo and offensive boards and then just have to lean on home crowd to help force a few turnovers and should be able to out execute and play harder (using depth) than them on both ends.

Payback time, Hurley won't let them forget. We play hard, great defense and we win! On to 2023,

 

[pj]

I really don't expect anything from Sampson this year.

I'll go hot on my take and suggest this season will end with it feeling like he wasn't ever on the roster.

You're probably right about feeling like Sampson wasn't ever on the roster -- I feel that way now -- but I don't expect to feel that way about Samson.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Think we matchup well here. Caleb will have to deal with Newton at first with doses of Alleyne and Diarra afterwards. Whitmore has Karaban then Andre. Do wish we had SJ for a little more depth guarding the 4 but we’ll be fine.

If they can’t play defense this can be another double digits one. It seems like everything they do well we defend well.

 

[CTGoonie]

Ok, I'll say it. We're doomed. Nova by 40.

 

[elmcityboy]

i like the match-up this year, too. we have bigger guards that they can't bully anymore. we also have the speed and athleticism advantage at basically every position if whitmore is on the bench.

dixon will be a factor. i think a lot of our fans are overlooking him because he's so small, but he has owned sanogo in the past. plus, they go small with their bench and will force donovan to guard in space.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Final thoughts:

Villanova is probably our most unique BE matchup of the year.

Elite offense that shoots a ton of threes and isn't afraid to go small (Whitmore and Slater combine for about 1/3 of the minutes at the 5 whenever Dixon is out).

Speaking of Dixon, he averages about 3.8 fouls per 40, which is quite low, but I can see him getting into foul trouble today if/when Sanogo eats.

When was the last time we played Villanova with a PG who can handle guarding post-up guards? I'm so delighted to have Newton right now, as I have way more confidence of him guarding Daniels down low than I would have with Cole, Alterique, Vital, Adams, Gibbs, Boat...

As of right now, this is Villanova's worst defensive team since the 11-12 season, so that's that, but I'd still expect UConn to stay in the low 70s with Nova's ability to control the pace (only 14.2% turnover rate, so I do not expect a lot of transition buckets for UConn, even though I'm hoping AJax is reading this post as bulletin board material).

 

[REB1094]

They have absolutely NOTHING for Sanogo and Clingan. They'll have to pick their poison - let Sanogo go 1 on 1 or send help and give up shots.

Clingan should have like 700 offensive rebounds

I apologize

 

[Hey Adrien!]

Updated report!

Villanova: 16-14
9-9 since we’ve last played them
2-5 without Whitmore; 14-9 with Whitmore
10-10 without Moore; 6-4 with Moore
6-1 in their last 7 (Ws over DePaul, SH 2x, Butler, Xavier, Creighton)
Kenpom Rating: 56th (53rd last time we’ve played)​

Offensive Efficiency: 34th (15th last time we played them)

Big East Rankings: 6th in Efficiency

• 1st in 3PA/FGA (45.3%)
  • 8th in 33.0 3p%
• 1st in 83.2 FT%
• 1st in Time spent per possession (19.5 seconds)
• 3rd in FTA/FGA (30.4%)
• 4th in 53.6 2p%
• 4th in steal prevention
• 10th in offensive rebounding rate
• 10th in block prevention
• 11th in A/FGM (44.2%)

Defensive Efficiency: 95th (123rd last time we played them)

Big East Rankings: 5th in Efficiency

• 2nd in defensive rebounding rate
• 4th in quickest opponent possession rate (17.1 seconds/possession)
• 4th in 32.5 opp. 3p%
• 5th in steal rate
• 6th in FTA/FGA prevention (29.4%)
• 7th in 51.0 opp. 2p%
• 9th in A/FGM prevention (58.7%)
• LAST in
  • 78.2 Opp. ft%
  • 39.4% 3PA/FGA
  • Block rate

Top Performers over the Last 30 Games:

Eric Dixon: 16.0p, 6.5r, 1.2 3PM, 50.7 fg%, 79.3 ft%
Caleb Daniels: 14.9p, 4.4r, 2.5a, 2.3 3PM, 85.3 ft%
Cam Whitmore: 12.6p, 5.1r, 1.4s, 1.4 3PM, 46.9 fg%
Justin Moore: 12.1p, 3.2r, 2.7a, 1.6 3PM

Obviously, the biggest change between this game and last game is Justin Moore’s return and Cam Whitmore in full rhythm after his 23 minutes against UConn last matchup was a career high.

With Moore back, Arcidiacono has been relegated back to mistake-preventing, team-first supporting guard who helps move the ball beautifully around the perimeter (he’s actually ranked the team’s most efficient offensive player, despite modest numbers).

In his junior season, Eric Dixon has been an offensive star, but is analytically (according to Evanmiya.com) the team’s least efficient regular defender while Cam Whitmore and Mark Armstrong are the team’s best defenders.

Similar to the last game, I expect another big game from Hawkins, however, I’d expect Karaban (15 points last matchup) to have a hard assignment against a fully healthy Whitmore. Sanogo’s performance in the last matchup (7 points, 4 personal fouls) feels like a fluke too…if he remains out of foul trouble, he should be able to carve up Sanogo in the post and if he’s doubled, a strong shooter like Karaban and/or Hawkins should be open on kick outs.

 

[auror]

Our best chance is just killing them on the boards. Dixon, Slater, and Whitmore are all decent rebounders, but not great, and we're elite. It's also one of the best ways to beat a raucous home court.

Hopefully Dan is working on our guards defending post ups.

 

[Billy Jack]

There are only a couple of opponent players I really disliked over the years and Collin Gillespie is one of them. He got away with murder "backing down" opponents like a little Mack Truck slamming into them without getting called for an offensive foul. I've never seen anyone come close to getting away with what he did. That's on the refs. I actually admired the whole Villanova approach by Jay Wright who was a class act and who did a great job for the school and the Big East. Consistent excellence coaching their program. So glad to see Gillespie gone. Have to hand it to him though; he literally pushed his luck like a truck and got away with it.

You’ve never seen anyone come close to getting away with what he did? Do you live under a rock? Shaq built a Hall of Fame career doing that. If you do it right, it’s a perfectly legitimate move. TBH, I too hate that move, but I’ve learned because I’ve seen it done so many times.

A smart coach like Jay Wright understood what’s legal and coached his players how to do that legally - especially his guards. Jalen Brunson did it all the time when he was at Villanova. Jay reversed the normal offensive scheme. He developed his bigs into 3 point shooters, pulled them out to the perimeter, and then posted his guards up. That scheme among others took his teams to 2 national championships.

I have no idea how anyone who understands basketball could dislike Colin Gillespie. He was a fierce competitor and one of the headiest players I’ve ever seen. Totally clutch. I always wished that my team could have a Colin Gillespie on it.

 

[Billy Jack]

Watch Daniels then, he is the new Gillespie. Both good players but both get the edge from the stripes. Dixon will do this as well. Kadary Richmond is waiting around the corner again too. Depending on how our guys react there may need to be adjustments. Newton has been solid and backing down 6’5 is tougher than 5’11 Cole. Alleyne is tough and has good size too could see more time if making shots as well. Will be interesting.

They don’t get the edge from the stripes. As you point out, a number of Villanova players and have done it over the years. It’s one of their signature plays. Perfectly legal.

 

[Billy Jack]

Updated report!

Villanova: 16-14
9-9 since we’ve last played them
2-5 without Whitmore; 14-9 with Whitmore
10-10 without Moore; 6-4 with Moore
6-1 in their last 7 (Ws over DePaul, SH 2x, Butler, Xavier, Creighton)
Kenpom Rating: 56th (53rd last time we’ve played)​

Offensive Efficiency: 34th (15th last time we played them)

Big East Rankings: 6th in Efficiency

• 1st in 3PA/FGA (45.3%)
  • 8th in 33.0 3p%
• 1st in 83.2 FT%
• 1st in Time spent per possession (19.5 seconds)
• 3rd in FTA/FGA (30.4%)
• 4th in 53.6 2p%
• 4th in steal prevention
• 10th in offensive rebounding rate
• 10th in block prevention
• 11th in A/FGM (44.2%)

Defensive Efficiency: 95th (123rd last time we played them)

Big East Rankings: 5th in Efficiency

• 2nd in defensive rebounding rate
• 4th in quickest opponent possession rate (17.1 seconds/possession)
• 4th in 32.5 opp. 3p%
• 5th in steal rate
• 6th in FTA/FGA prevention (29.4%)
• 7th in 51.0 opp. 2p%
• 9th in A/FGM prevention (58.7%)
• LAST in
  • 78.2 Opp. ft%
  • 39.4% 3PA/FGA
  • Block rate

Top Performers over the Last 30 Games:

Eric Dixon: 16.0p, 6.5r, 1.2 3PM, 50.7 fg%, 79.3 ft%
Caleb Daniels: 14.9p, 4.4r, 2.5a, 2.3 3PM, 85.3 ft%
Cam Whitmore: 12.6p, 5.1r, 1.4s, 1.4 3PM, 46.9 fg%
Justin Moore: 12.1p, 3.2r, 2.7a, 1.6 3PM

Obviously, the biggest change between this game and last game is Justin Moore’s return and Cam Whitmore in full rhythm after his 23 minutes against UConn last matchup was a career high.

With Moore back, Arcidiacono has been relegated back to mistake-preventing, team-first supporting guard who helps move the ball beautifully around the perimeter (he’s actually ranked the team’s most efficient offensive player, despite modest numbers).

Excellent points about Moore and Arcidiacono. In the 10 games since Moore’s been back, Arcidiacono has been a bench player, averaging only 12 minutes per game. He’s just a role player without that big a role any more. Even though he’s been back for 10 games, we’ve just begun to see the old Justin Moore in the past 3-4 games.

 

[Edward Sargent]

I have no idea how anyone who understands basketball could dislike Colin Gillespie. He was a fierce competitor and one of the headiest players I’ve ever seen. Totally clutch. I always wished that my team could have a Colin Gillespie on it.

This is the total definition of BY hate

 

[REB1094]

I have no idea how anyone who understands basketball could dislike Colin Gillespie. He was a fierce competitor and one of the headiest players I’ve ever seen. Totally clutch. I always wished that my team could have a Colin Gillespie on it.

Love to have him, hate to play him

 

[MuchoDogYears]

You’ve never seen anyone come close to getting away with what he did? Do you live under a rock? Shaq built a Hall of Fame career doing that. If you do it right, it’s a perfectly legitimate move. TBH, I too hate that move, but I’ve learned because I’ve seen it done so many times.

A smart coach like Jay Wright understood what’s legal and coached his players how to do that legally - especially his guards. Jalen Brunson did it all the time when he was at Villanova. Jay reversed the normal offensive scheme. He developed his bigs into 3 point shooters, pulled them out to the perimeter, and then posted his guards up. That scheme among others took his teams to 2 national championships.

I have no idea how anyone who understands basketball could dislike Colin Gillespie. He was a fierce competitor and one of the headiest players I’ve ever seen. Totally clutch. I always wished that my team could have a Colin Gillespie on it.

Gillespie also used a forearm shove to create space before every shot he took and was allowed to do so. Why are you on this forum defending Gillespie? On another thread you defended PC's home-court favoritism by refs. Obviously you're not a UConn fan, whom are you a fan of?

 

[Umami Zen]

Crash the boards/pressure three point shooters/stay out of foul trouble/make FTs.. Think our bench can be valuable contributors tomorrow.. Give the starters a little rest/hydration.. Try to take their crowd out of game early..

Major gut check.. But we can do this

 

[AZHuskiePop]

Need to return the favor from those blowouts during the Ollie years

Actually the worst score was Hurley’s 2018-19.team .
Ollie was 1-2,against them
2013 L single Digit
2014 W ( NCAA Tournament)
Then we never played them until
The dismal
2017-18 year I think he kept it respectable (20) with his number 1 ranked and eventual NC team playing our least talented team in 30 years. He could have named the score. Maybe he liked Ollie . Old Big East loyalty. I respected their coach for not embarrassing us more
We lost by 23 in Hurley’s first year to a very good but slightly less successful Nova team also in a game they probably could have won by more. The beat us in 2019-20
Twice in 2020-21 , we finally split last year .. all those games were single digit.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Thanks @Hey Adrien! Maybe I misremember, but I think Slater has caused us major headaches in the past. We have trouble matching his inside-outside ability and he always gets some open 3s against us.

I expect Sanogo to have a much better game. Our revised offense that sees him facing the rim will stress Dixon, who is strong enough to give him problems when he's playing back to the basket.

Alex will be challenged by the combination of Whitmore and Slater. I see a real problem when we go small. Alleyne on Slater is a disaster waiting to happen. Hurley may need to match lineup substitutions and only sub out Alex when Nova has Daniels or Longino at SF.

 

[Luna]

There are only a couple of opponent players I really disliked over the years and Collin Gillespie is one of them. He got away with murder "backing down" opponents like a little Mack Truck slamming into them without getting called for an offensive foul. I've never seen anyone come close to getting away with what he did. That's on the refs. I actually admired the whole Villanova approach by Jay Wright who was a class act and who did a great job for the school and the Big East. Consistent excellence coaching their program. So glad to see Gillespie gone. Have to hand it to him though; he literally pushed his luck like a truck and got away with it.

I agree with everything you said… but would like to add providence gets away with everything this year..I have never seen such a blatantly called game as the one in providence against us… those refs should all be fired after that game

 

[PNolanFan]

Anyone with a pulse on Villanova know what the outlook is on their roster's sentiment? They have alot of talented players that could be back next year or could leave via various avenues (Whitmore going to the NBA, seems obvious to me, Moore could graduate or come back, Dixon probably could play pro ball in some capacity, and then they have a ton of highly rated underclassmen who dont get much time in longino, brizzi, patterson and armstrong so would think their is transfer risk there) Ultimately this season was a bit ruined but with the right guys back next year could see this team being dangerous next year

 

[The Yakk]

You’ve never seen anyone come close to getting away with what he did? Do you live under a rock? Shaq built a Hall of Fame career doing that. If you do it right, it’s a perfectly legitimate move. TBH, I too hate that move, but I’ve learned because I’ve seen it done so many times.

A smart coach like Jay Wright understood what’s legal and coached his players how to do that legally - especially his guards. Jalen Brunson did it all the time when he was at Villanova. Jay reversed the normal offensive scheme. He developed his bigs into 3 point shooters, pulled them out to the perimeter, and then posted his guards up. That scheme among others took his teams to 2 national championships.

I have no idea how anyone who understands basketball could dislike Colin Gillespie. He was a fierce competitor and one of the headiest players I’ve ever seen. Totally clutch. I always wished that my team could have a Colin Gillespie on it.

Lol the old "anyone who disagrees with me doesn't understand basketball" argument.

Gillespie was a winner though, and the team is worse with him gone. Definitely agree with that.