The Official Bracketology thread, part II (beginning Mar 7)

[Boreifs]

Kentucky, Iowa and NC State were the hottest teams in tournament play. That is a rough road to the Final Four.

 

[southie]

I feel for NC State not likely being assigned to the Greensboro regional in their home state of North Carolina due to South Carolina's proximity and higher seed/ranking. And, then to have be to sent to Bridgeport where the #2 seed could be a local team.

I remember when Dawn Staley was very upset that her 2016 team had to be sent to the regional in Sioux Falls, SD instead of the closer Lexington, KY regional because of fellow SEC school Kentucky being the logical choice to be in that regional (despite being a worse seed than SC). She cited how disappointing it was for the large following of Gamecock fans who would not be able to drive to watch their team play.

 

[JoePgh]

Today's update - no up/down seeds, however 10 region changes, the most since 2/22 (12). And voila, UConn in Bridgeport.

View attachment 74138

CC: "We still don't know just how good UConn is, but Monday provided the best example of how different the Huskies are now that they are healthy. A month ago, Villanova beat a UConn team without Olivia Nelson-Ododa, Caroline Ducharme and Paige Bueckers by three in Hartford. That trio was on the court in Monday's Big East final, and the Huskies won by 30. That was enough to bump UConn to the No. 6 overall seed. Based on their spot on the S-curve, the Huskies would naturally be placed in Bridgeport. There's still a chance they could end up in another region, but the higher the Huskies are on the S-curve, the better the chance that Bridgeport is their landing spot. Villanova remains the first team out; the Wildcats didn't stay competitive enough Monday to get a bump into the field. At-large spots can still open up, so there's a chance Villanova could reach its first NCAA tournament since 2018."

I really hate to say "I told you so" (you can tell how much I hate to do that), but this explanation by The Right Honorable Mr. Creme is just about EXACTLY what I said on this board yesterday, right down to highlighting the importance of MOV in the Villanova-UConn game. See my Post #17 on the "Huskies Move Up to #6" thread.

So Charlie and I are in sync. Let's see if either of us has any idea what the Selection Committee will do.

 

[HuskyNan]

What happens if Paige and Azzi go off?

And the new Miss March, Christyn.

 

[HuskyNan]

I feel for NC State not likely being assigned to the Greensboro regional in their home state of North Carolina due to South Carolina's proximity and higher seed/ranking. And, then to have be to sent to Bridgeport where the #2 seed could be a local team.

I remember when Dawn Staley was very upset that her 2016 team had to be sent to the regional in Sioux Falls, SD instead of the closer Lexington, KY regional because of fellow SEC school Kentucky being the logical choice to be in that regional (despite being a worse seed than SC). She cited how disappointing it was for the large following of Gamecock fans who would not be able to drive to watch their team play.

Yeah, in 2004 Penn State was the #1 seed in - wait for it - Hartford. UConn was the #2 seed.

 

[Vowelguy]

You can make a strong case for NC State to be the overall #2 and UConn to be overall #7 and have them be in Bridgeport.

What?? Based on what?
No way nc st is moving ahead of SC or Stan.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Looking at those brackets, SC and Stanford have easy paths. NCSU and Louisville have very tough ones. I don’t like the imbalance.

 

[Plebe]

I remember when Dawn Staley was very upset that her 2016 team had to be sent to the regional in Sioux Falls, SD instead of the closer Lexington, KY regional because of fellow SEC school Kentucky being the logical choice to be in that regional (despite being a worse seed than SC). She cited how disappointing it was for the large following of Gamecock fans who would not be able to drive to watch their team play.

The official explanation from the committee chair for the "Lexington-gate" decision was that Notre Dame instead of SC was assigned as the #1 there because ND was within the NCAA threshold of "driving distance" (350 miles) of Lexington, while SC is outside it.

Of course, this decision had the nice side effect of allowing Kentucky to be the #3 seed in Lexington. (Home court didn't help them much; they lost to Washington in the Sweet 16.)

 

[chuck.r]

American Champ in first game would be UCF? This will be a bruising battle, hopefully nobody gets hurt

American University - Patriot League a.q.

 

[GoCardinal]

Looking at those brackets, SC and Stanford have easy paths. NCSU and Louisville have very tough ones. I don’t like the imbalance.

Yeah, I am not sure it will end up going like that exactly. For example, I find it hard to believe neither Iowa school will land in Wichita.

 

[Rudy1927]

How do you make the SEC champ a #7 seed? Especially with a projected 9 teams getting in the field. Have to be much higher.

 

[Plebe]

How do you make the SEC champ a #7 seed? Especially with a projected 9 teams getting in the field. Have to be much higher.

Seeding is based on the entire season's body of work, not just 3 games.

West Virginia did something very similar in 2017. Was on the bubble going into the Big 12 tournament, then tore through everyone including Baylor and Texas. Got a #6 seed.

 

[Cornell Lt]

I feel for NC State not likely being assigned to the Greensboro regional in their home state of North Carolina due to South Carolina's proximity and higher seed/ranking. And, then to have be to sent to Bridgeport where the #2 seed could be a local team.

I remember when Dawn Staley was very upset that her 2016 team had to be sent to the regional in Sioux Falls, SD instead of the closer Lexington, KY regional because of fellow SEC school Kentucky being the logical choice to be in that regional (despite being a worse seed than SC). She cited how disappointing it was for the large following of Gamecock fans who would not be able to drive to watch their team play.

And then they got beat by Syracuse

 

[dtbtbtb]

If indeed this is the bracket UConn is in with having to go in theory through KY, Iowa, NC St., Stanford and SC, it would be the hardest road to championship that UConn had in many many years

 

[Urshurak]

Wow. With those Brackets UConn gets , KY, followed by Iowa followed by NC State? Followed by SC in Final 4? Then NC game against probably Stanford? Yeah, piece of cake!

Honestly, that’s beyond brutal. I'd rather they play in Greensboro......

 

[CL82]

Here we go…

 

[ConnMotors]

Why screw Iowa? But good news for UConn.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Kentucky, Iowa and NC State were the hottest teams in tournament play. That is a rough road to the Final Four.

AND UConn... especially with the defense they have been putting up. Last 8 games... smallest MOV 20pts... average MOV 41.75pts.

 

[visitingcock]

What?? Based on what?
No way nc st is moving ahead of SC or Stan.

As of this moment, the NET has:
1. SCar
2. NC State
3. Stanford.

Here's a composite shot of numerous rankings:

AP NET RPI Massey ELO

• SCAR 1 1 1 1 3
• STAN 2 3 2 2 1
• NC St. 3 2 3 3 2

COULD NC State be number two? Yeah, but I think the Committee makes them 3.

 

[Vowelguy]

As of this moment, the NET has:
1. SCar
2. NC State
3. Stanford.

Here's a composite shot of numerous rankings:

AP NET RPI Massey ELO

• SCAR 1 1 1 1 3
• STAN 2 3 2 2 1
• NC St. 3 2 3 3 2

COULD NC State be number two? Yeah, but I think the Committee makes them 3.

All those numbers are somewhat meaningless. The most important info we have is this: NC State was #3 in the last committee rankings 8 days ago.

In order for them to move up to #2, their resume would have to have significantly improved or SC/Stan's significantly worsened in the past week.

I see no plausible case for that argument. Not even close.

 

[visitingcock]

I get the feeling ESPN is doing everything they can to try and influence the committee to put and keep UConn in Greensboro with S.C.. Will they influence the committee? I don't thinks so but, you never know........

Charlie works for ESPN. He has UConn paired with NC State.

Where's the basis of your of your feeling?

 

[Fossil]

UConn will probably end up as the number 6 overall seed depending on what happens in the Big 12 tournament. The S and the G curve will put them in either Bridgeport or Wichita if they follow the seed line.

I don’t know about the S or the G curve but I did hear that the one gets the easiest 2 seed so that would mean one plays eight than two should play seven and 3 Would Play 6 and 4 would play 5. If all stays the same in the rankings that puts us in Bridgeport versus North Carolina does it not? And what about the committee paying attention to Geographic area and travel. Again that should put Connecticut back in Bridgeport. I just worry about the committee making things up as they go along and not staying with established criteria.

 

[visitingcock]

All those numbers are somewhat meaningless. The most important info we have is this: NC State was #3 in the last committee rankings 8 days ago.

In order for them to move up to #2, their resume would have to have significantly improved or SC/Stan's significantly worsened in the past week.

I see no plausible case for that argument. Not even close.

As long as it's those top three and they can pick three teams to line up with them, they probably wont change but could

1. SCar vs. #8 Iowa
2. Stanford vs #7 (Big12 tourney runner up)
3. NC State vs #6 Uconn
4. Louisville vs 5 (Big12 Tourney Champ)

You can flip flop 4 and 5. That's what I see happening.