The offense is the problem

[nelsonmuntz]

Here are the shooting percentages of the key rotation players heading into Butler:

Sanogo: 59.1%
Hawkins: 40.3%
Clingan: 70.6%
Calcaterra: 43.3%
Karaban: 45.9%
Newton: 34.6%
Alleyne: 33.3%
Jackson: 37.8%
Diarra: 29.7%

Newton, Alleyne, Jackson and Diarra are having career low shooting percentage seasons, in their 3rd and 4th years, when players should be having their highest shooting percentage seasons. While Calcaterra is not having a career low season yet, at the rate he has been shooting the last month (5 for 29 from the field since Georgetown), he will be there pretty soon. Take out the two frosh, where there is no prior year basis for comparison, and Hawkins, who (we hope) can't shoot as bad as last season"s 35.3% but is not exactly a model of efficiency, basically Sanogo is the only player not having the WORST shooting season of their college career. It is worth noting that the transfers all shot better off a lot more shots at their prior homes, which would indicate that despite having to take more shots (which should lower shooting percentages), they were still getting better looks overall before coming to UConn.

Either UConn is really unlucky and almost every offensive player is having a down year at once, or our offense is hot garbage and is making our players worse. And the fact that Hurley is sticking with his gummed up, easy to defend offense rather than try something different, like playing Clingan and Sanogo together, shows just how stubborn he is.

 

[huskyfan224]

Definitely an issue, but you can’t say defense/IQ isn’t the issue either. They absolutely collapsed in each 2nd half in all the losses this year, not just offensively. Dumb TOs and defense caused a lot of issues..leading at half in three, tied in one, and down 3 in the other loss is not just offense

Offense has been bad, but so has everything else

 

[willie99]

What are those percentages during our losing session? I'm thinking much worse

Too many turnovers. Horrible effort when rebounding, especially from the guards. All mechanical, all effort, all can be fixed if addressed

 

[giddyup]

Here are the shooting percentages of the key rotation players heading into Butler:

Sanogo: 59.1%
Hawkins: 40.3%
Clingan: 70.6%
Calcaterra: 43.3%
Karaban: 45.9%
Newton: 34.6%
Alleyne: 33.3%
Jackson: 37.8%
Diarra: 29.7%

Newton, Alleyne, Jackson and Diarra are having career low shooting percentage seasons, in their 3rd and 4th years, when players should be having their highest shooting percentage seasons. While Calcaterra is not having a career low season yet, at the rate he has been shooting the last month (5 for 29 from the field since Georgetown), he will be there pretty soon. Take out the two frosh, where there is no prior year basis for comparison, and Hawkins, who (we hope) can't shoot as bad as last season"s 35.3% but is not exactly a model of efficiency, basically Sanogo is the only player not having the WORST shooting season of their college career. It is worth noting that the transfers all shot better off a lot more shots at their prior homes, which would indicate that despite having to take more shots (which should lower shooting percentages), they were still getting better looks overall before coming to UConn.

Either UConn is really unlucky and almost every offensive player is having a down year at once, or our offense is hot garbage and is making our players worse. And the fact that Hurley is sticking with his gummed up, easy to defend offense rather than try something different, like playing Clingan and Sanogo together, shows just how stubborn he is.

Or, they are rattled and the team has lost confidence. It’s like a disease that spreads if it isn’t managed. Sometimes it isn’t manageable and the coach has to go back psychological basics…win the first 5 minutes, win the half, win the first 5, then win the next, etc., basic job focuses … No dribble pick up without a pass, pass first no dribbles…2 count in paint to shoot or kick out…pick whatever you want little things help…simple behavioral goals. You don’t do the basic execution, you get yanked. JC was a master at this.

 

[jake14mw]

In the beginning of the season, we looked like a team where Hawkins, Newton, Karaban, Calcaterra, and even Sanogo were effective 3 point shooters. Right now we're down to Hawkins and Karaban. And Hawkins tends to much less effective in pressure situations.

We might lead the league now in stepping out of bounds and shot clock violations. Putting heavy pressure on our guards has proven very effective.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

That’s because this team has no idea how to get an open shot unless it’s a three. Not a single set is ran with the idea of getting a shot at the rim.

We’re literally living and dying by the three point shot (and Sanogo).

 

[nelsonmuntz]

That’s because this team has no idea how to get an open shot unless it’s a three. Not a single set is ran with the idea of getting a shot at the rim.

We’re literally living and dying by the three point shot (and Sanogo).

I think they are all shooting worse from 2 and 3 point range. I don't think we need more kamikaze drives to the basket. We need an offense.

 

[auror]

That’s because this team has no idea how to get an open shot unless it’s a three. Not a single set is ran with the idea of getting a shot at the rim.

We’re literally living and dying by the three point shot (and Sanogo).

A ton of sets are run to get Sanogo open shots at the rim. Most of Hawkins sets have an option for 3 or to get downhill an attack the basket if they're overplaying the 3.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

I think they are all shooting worse from 2 and 3 point range. I don't think we need more kamikaze drives to the basket. We need an offense.

I agree. I’m just saying we don’t run anything designed to get open at the rim.

If you watch the 2011 and 2014 offenses back cuts were a HUGE part of what we did to take advantage of teams overplaying the three. We don’t cut to score at all outside of Karaban and he seems to just do it because he’s smart. Not because it’s a part of the offense.

 

[giddyup]

That’s because this team has no idea how to get an open shot unless it’s a three. Not a single set is ran with the idea of getting a shot at the rim.

We’re literally living and dying by the three point shot (and Sanogo).

The force dump into Sanogo doesn’t help. They know it’s coming and they know he holds it too long and forces bad shots. They also expect the Clingan back side alley-hoop . Meanwhile the offense doesn’t even begin until halfway through the clock with guys shuffling around the perimeter doing nothing. I feel like I’m flashing back to KO offense with the exception it’s not even an iso spread because we don’t even have a penetration guard.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The force dump into Sanogo doesn’t help. They know it’s coming and they know he holds it too long and forces bad shots. They also expect the Clingan back side alley-hoop . Meanwhile the offense doesn’t even begin until halfway through the clock with guys shuffling around the perimeter doing nothing. I feel like I’m flashing back to KO offense with the exception it’s not even an iso spread because we don’t even have a penetration guard.

Sanogo is the only one hitting his shots.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

A ton of sets are run to get Sanogo open shots at the rim. Most of Hawkins sets have an option for 3 or to get downhill an attack the basket if they're overplaying the 3.

I meant from our guards. Yeah we run a lot of picks for Sanogo at the rim to get him room to post.

Haven’t seen many of the backdoors with with Hawkins but wish we can design something to take advantage of guys literally being chest to chest with him before he starts running off screens.

 

[Mr. Wonderful]

The lack of variation in the offense is maddening. We are an easy scout.

I still think the defense has been a bigger problem.

 

[Balker]

The storyline the metrics tell is not an offensive problem that’s driving our losses. Shots fall sometimes, sometimes they don’t. We will occasionally lose a game where the other team plays well and our threes don’t fall, that’s not completely avoidable for any team.

A consistent theme in our losses is a defensive failure. We have allowed opponents to score more than 1 point per possession 6 times this year. We are 1-5 in those games, the win being Georgetown.

What is consistent in those six games is either a large foul disparity, a large turnover disparity or both.

Joey C and Alleyne have shot the ball worse of late, but that’s not why we’re losing games. We are a good enough team to win anyway. But not if we are spotting our opponents 5-10 extra possessions and 10-20 extra free throws.

 

[navery12]

Posted this in another thread yesterday, but we have been getting good shots this year. The difference is lately they're just not falling

 

[auror]

The storyline the metrics tell is not an offensive problem that’s driving our losses.

What is consistent in those six games is either a large foul disparity, a large turnover disparity or both.

Joey C and Alleyne have shot the ball worse of late, but that’s not why we’re losing games. We are a good enough team to win anyway. But not if we are spotting our opponents 5-10 extra possessions and 10-20 extra free throws.

This bolded thing is certainly partly (or maybe mostly) an offensive problem. 4 of our 5 losses we've had turnover rates over 21% - 21.6%, 23.2%, 27.3%, and 26.9%. The Creighton win in the middle? 7.9% TO rate. A lot of this is matchup (Johnnies force a lot of TOs, Creighton very few), but we have to value the ball more.

A high turnover rate will often present itself in stats as defensive issues, because the opponent is getting free dunks and layups and transition 3s the other way.

However, it is also true that our 2 lowest TO% forced on opps happened in the last 2 games. I believe this is because we started going under more screens at the 3point line and almost exclusively drop coverage, because Johnnies and Hall couldn't shoot. We tried playing more solid/less aggressive D. But we're bad at that, because we foul way too much and our guys aren't as used to some of those coverages. And as a tradeoff we lost much of our disruption. I think we'll go back to defense 1.0 tomorrow against Butler.

 

[giddyup]

Sanogo is the only one hitting his shots.

No even close my friend. He’s under 60% 2 feet away from the basket. Clingan is over 70%.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Disagree with the post subject...The offense has certainly been sputtering but if the defense doesn't improve, we'll underperform win/loss wise all the rest of the way. Winning multiple games 90-80 is not sustainable at all. Winning games with defense is a must in order to have a chance at being upper tier BE and a sweet sixteen candidate.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

@navery12



Synergy thinks UConn is playing great defense too. Maybe UConn is not actually losing these games.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

@navery12



Synergy thinks UConn is playing great defense too. Maybe UConn is not actually losing these games.

Is it safe to assume their model does not include FT's? That might explain how we graph so well on both sides of the ball yet lose conference games at the clip we have so far.

 

[Ewekon]

Here are the shooting percentages of the key rotation players heading into Butler:

Sanogo: 59.1%
Hawkins: 40.3%
Clingan: 70.6%
Calcaterra: 43.3%
Karaban: 45.9%
Newton: 34.6%
Alleyne: 33.3%
Jackson: 37.8%
Diarra: 29.7%

Newton, Alleyne, Jackson and Diarra are having career low shooting percentage seasons, in their 3rd and 4th years, when players should be having their highest shooting percentage seasons. While Calcaterra is not having a career low season yet, at the rate he has been shooting the last month (5 for 29 from the field since Georgetown), he will be there pretty soon. Take out the two frosh, where there is no prior year basis for comparison, and Hawkins, who (we hope) can't shoot as bad as last season"s 35.3% but is not exactly a model of efficiency, basically Sanogo is the only player not having the WORST shooting season of their college career. It is worth noting that the transfers all shot better off a lot more shots at their prior homes, which would indicate that despite having to take more shots (which should lower shooting percentages), they were still getting better looks overall before coming to UConn.

Either UConn is really unlucky and almost every offensive player is having a down year at once, or our offense is hot garbage and is making our players worse. And the fact that Hurley is sticking with his gummed up, easy to defend offense rather than try something different, like playing Clingan and Sanogo together, shows just how stubborn he is.

Live by the transfer portal, die by the transfer portal,

Citing the 4 transfers as all being upperclassmen limits the conversation to years of experience; but ignores the conferences in which the experience was gained. The 4 year transfer guys are playing true sophomores that were recruited to play BE bball from day 1. Natural ability still counts.

Any optimism I have now is almost completely based on the 4 year UConn recruits and, somewhat Newton. This coach has 3 or more first round picks on the '23 team. Imho, Clingan needs some of Ajax's minutes as well. Where Andre 1.0 went is beyond me. Clingan, Sanogo and Hawk should at LEAST yield 2 lottery picks. Karaban keeps working and he is a late first rounder at worst.

And now I drive the post off the road. A whole bunch of the way we finish out is on Dan Hurley. Great players shake off slumps, great HCs push them to get back, switch line ups, call the right plays at the right time and OMFG... do not lose the Seton Hall game. Cannot happen. It's crunch time.

edit: Real plays need to be run featuring a twin towers set with Hawk handling and Karaban in the corner. Somebody has to be open and Clingan is already a darn good kick out passer, Just one fan's opinion and 1 coach's job,

Go Huskies!

 

[Ewekon]

In the beginning of the season, we looked like a team where Hawkins, Newton, Karaban, Calcaterra, and even Sanogo were effective 3 point shooters. Right now we're down to Hawkins and Karaban. And Hawkins tends to much less effective in pressure situations.

We might lead the league now in stepping out of bounds and shot clock violations. Putting heavy pressure on our guards has proven very effective.

stepping out of bounds?

shot clock violations?

KO calling the plays behind the curtain?

 

[auror]

@navery12



Synergy thinks UConn is playing great defense too. Maybe UConn is not actually losing these games.

As noted in one of the replies, this is full season stats, not just Big East play, so 2/3 of the sample is from when we were playing really well.

 

[king conn]

Every offense gets scouted and defended.

That's why you need guards who can break down off the dribble and make things happen. Our defense is on the receiving end of this all the time.

Throwing 4 wings out there with a big and saying 2 of them are guards doesn't get it done.

And alot of our success before January came from offensive rebounding, which also seems to have deserted us.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

@navery12



Synergy thinks UConn is playing great defense too. Maybe UConn is not actually losing these games.

lol that’s funny Navery ignored me and I didn’t even say anything to him lmaooo