shizzle787
King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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- Oct 19, 2015
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It has been a month since the big move but no further moves have been made yet. Here is my theory for the next moves given the latest rumors and speculation:
The B1G is going to stay at 16. They will likely sign their new TV deal next month. This means that Notre Dame has decided not to come and likely have a huge raise in hand from NBC.
As a result of the B1G staying pat, the SEC and ACC do likewise.
The next battle royale will be between the Big 12 and Pac-12, but it will be a cold war: neither side will be able to poach from the other due to similar TV numbers.
The Big 12 stands pat.
The Pac-12, however, would like to expand if the numbers make sense. The numbers make sense if the two (or three) incoming schools combine to equal one share for the first TV contract (lasting six or so years). I think the TV contract will ultimately be will three companies: ESPN, NBC, and Apple+. The Pac-12 gets a contract of about 330 million per year (30 million per school). They expand by adding SDSU (half-share: 15 million), Hawaii football-only (third-share: 10 million) and Gonzaga (sixth-share: 5 million).
The Mountain West at this point is down to ten schools but decides to stand pat as no one (UTEP/NMSU/FCS schools) moves the needle, and they won't be able to raid any AAC schools.
Realignment at the FBS level is complete for the time being.
However, the WCC needs to respond to the loss of Gonzaga and BYU.
They respond by adding Seattle and Grand Canyon to get back to 10.
The WAC at this point is down to 9 schools (6 in football). They cannot find a suitable Division 1 addition and decide to stand pat.
Though unrelated to the previous moves, I believe there will be a few more in the Northeast. The MEAC will add New Haven (D2) to provide cover for Howard to move to the CAA.
The final move will be LeMoyne to the NEC to bring that league back to 10.
The B1G is going to stay at 16. They will likely sign their new TV deal next month. This means that Notre Dame has decided not to come and likely have a huge raise in hand from NBC.
As a result of the B1G staying pat, the SEC and ACC do likewise.
The next battle royale will be between the Big 12 and Pac-12, but it will be a cold war: neither side will be able to poach from the other due to similar TV numbers.
The Big 12 stands pat.
The Pac-12, however, would like to expand if the numbers make sense. The numbers make sense if the two (or three) incoming schools combine to equal one share for the first TV contract (lasting six or so years). I think the TV contract will ultimately be will three companies: ESPN, NBC, and Apple+. The Pac-12 gets a contract of about 330 million per year (30 million per school). They expand by adding SDSU (half-share: 15 million), Hawaii football-only (third-share: 10 million) and Gonzaga (sixth-share: 5 million).
The Mountain West at this point is down to ten schools but decides to stand pat as no one (UTEP/NMSU/FCS schools) moves the needle, and they won't be able to raid any AAC schools.
Realignment at the FBS level is complete for the time being.
However, the WCC needs to respond to the loss of Gonzaga and BYU.
They respond by adding Seattle and Grand Canyon to get back to 10.
The WAC at this point is down to 9 schools (6 in football). They cannot find a suitable Division 1 addition and decide to stand pat.
Though unrelated to the previous moves, I believe there will be a few more in the Northeast. The MEAC will add New Haven (D2) to provide cover for Howard to move to the CAA.
The final move will be LeMoyne to the NEC to bring that league back to 10.