How do the best teams fare in the NCAA tournament?
I wanted to think about best both in terms of predictive metrics and also best in terms of resume. I went back and looked at the top 3 KenPom teams and the top 3 teams in Torvik's WAB (Wins Above Bubble) for each of the last 12 years entering the tournament. I've been monitoring this because I noticed a few months back that the current top 3 in KenPom (Houston, Purdue, and UConn) were also the top 3 in WAB in some order. UConn was ranked #3 or #2 in both metrics for most of the season, but passed the others to finish #1 in both (our overall #1 was well earned).
Only 5 times in the last 12 years has the same team been #1 in KenPom and #1 in WAB. 2020 Kansas had no tournament, 2018 Virginia was upset by UMBC, 2016 Kansas lost in the Elite 8 to eventual champion Villanova, and undefeated 2015 Kentucky made the Final Four. 2016 Kansas was less dominant than the others in terms of KenPom, so it makes sense they were not quite as successful, though their WAB was on par with us and Virginia. It's a little bit disconcerting that by far the most similar team to us on the list is the Virginia team that lost to UMBC. Almost identical adjEM and WAB. They did come back and win the title the next year, perhaps proving that a 1 game fluke and that they were really good, but... still. My solace is that Stetson rates a lot worse than that UMBC team.
Any thoughts?
I wanted to think about best both in terms of predictive metrics and also best in terms of resume. I went back and looked at the top 3 KenPom teams and the top 3 teams in Torvik's WAB (Wins Above Bubble) for each of the last 12 years entering the tournament. I've been monitoring this because I noticed a few months back that the current top 3 in KenPom (Houston, Purdue, and UConn) were also the top 3 in WAB in some order. UConn was ranked #3 or #2 in both metrics for most of the season, but passed the others to finish #1 in both (our overall #1 was well earned).
| Year | KP Rank | adjEM | Team | Overall Rank | Seed | Result | Year | WAB Rank | WAB | Team | Overall Rank | Seed | Result |
| 2023-2024 | 1 | 32.21 | UConn | 9 | 1 | ??? | 2023-2024 | 1 | 11.3 | UConn | 4 | 1 | ??? |
| 2022-2023 | 1 | 28.82 | Houston | 28 | 1 | S16 | 2022-2023 | 1 | 10.2 | Alabama | 18 | 1 | S16 |
| 2021-2022 | 1 | 32.97 | Gonzaga | 6 | 1 | S16 | 2021-2022 | 1 | 10.4 | Kansas | 17 | 1 | CHAMP |
| 2020-2021* | 1 | 36.62 | Gonzaga | 2 | 1 | Runner Up | 2020-2021* | 1 | 8.8 | Illinois | 26 | 1 | R32 |
| 2019-2020 | 1 | 30.33 | Kansas | 21 | No tourny | 2019-2020 | 1 | 10.9 | Kansas | 12 | No tourny | ||
| 2018-2019 | 1 | 35.66 | Virginia | 3 | 1 | CHAMP | 2018-2019 | 1 | 11.2 | Duke | 7 | 1 | E8 |
| 2017-2018 | 1 | 32.15 | Virginia | 10 | 1 | R64 - 16 seed (UMBC) | 2017-2018 | 1 | 11.3 | Virginia | 4 | 1 | R64 - 16 seed (UMBC) |
| 2016-2017 | 1 | 33.05 | Gonzaga | 5 | 1 | Runner Up | 2016-2017 | 1 | 11 | Villanova | 10 | 1 | R32 |
| 2015-2016 | 1 | 29.82 | Kansas | 23 | 1 | E8 | 2015-2016 | 1 | 11.4 | Kansas | 3 | 1 | E8 |
| 2014-2015 | 1 | 37.43 | Kentucky | 1 | 1 | F4 | 2014-2015 | 1 | 13 | Kentucky | 1 | 1 | F4 |
| 2013-2014 | 1 | 30.57 | Louisville | 19 | 4 | S16 | 2013-2014 | 1 | 11.8 | Florida | 2 | 1 | F4 |
| 2012-2013 | 1 | 31.98 | Florida | 12 | 3 | E8 | 2012-2013 | 1 | 9 | Louisville | 22 | 1 | CHAMP |
Only 5 times in the last 12 years has the same team been #1 in KenPom and #1 in WAB. 2020 Kansas had no tournament, 2018 Virginia was upset by UMBC, 2016 Kansas lost in the Elite 8 to eventual champion Villanova, and undefeated 2015 Kentucky made the Final Four. 2016 Kansas was less dominant than the others in terms of KenPom, so it makes sense they were not quite as successful, though their WAB was on par with us and Virginia. It's a little bit disconcerting that by far the most similar team to us on the list is the Virginia team that lost to UMBC. Almost identical adjEM and WAB. They did come back and win the title the next year, perhaps proving that a 1 game fluke and that they were really good, but... still. My solace is that Stetson rates a lot worse than that UMBC team.
Any thoughts?
