The Bubble

[gsmooth]

In recent years, the bubble has been brutal. This year is no different. As of now, no way is UConn in. Personally, I think, depending on who they play and beat, a very successful conference tourney can help them sneak in. Why not?

yeah I wrote this in another post as well last week: even though I am just a fan and my mentality has no bearing on the team and how they play, I am taking it one game at a time. And I hope they are doing the same.

I would be thrilled with a NIT invite and ecstatic if they did make the NCAA, but I realize the latter is a really long shot.

 

[tzznandrew]

In recent years, the bubble has been brutal. This year is no different. As of now, no way is UConn in. Personally, I think, depending on who they play and beat, a very successful conference tourney can help them sneak in. Why not?

UConn has 2 wins people would consider good (H 20 Houston, H 28 Florida). But they have 3 losses people would consider bad (A 114 Temple, A 127 USF, H 237 Saint Joseph's). The Temple loss is recent, too, unlike Providence's bad losses.

 

[djct1999]

UConn has 2 wins people would consider good (H 20 Houston, H 28 Florida). But they have 3 losses people would consider bad (A 114 Temple, A 127 USF, H 237 Saint Joseph's). The Temple loss is recent, too, unlike Providence's bad losses.

Most bubble teams have bad losses. They also beat Tulsa, Cincy, and Memphis. If they beat any of those teams again, plus Houston or Wichita, they can atleast watch the selection show on Sunday.

 

[CTBasketball]

We should annul all November bad losses like they’re going to do for Duke and UK.

 

[Slasher]

I'll re-run my bracketology once the NCAA sheets are updated. My guess UConn is ahead of Memphis now, and probably in the 8ish out.

 

[tzznandrew]

We should annul all November bad losses like they’re going to do for Duke and UK.

SFA: Not a bad loss.
Evansville: terrible loss. Kentucky just has way way better wins.

 

[Dooooooomed]

Lack of quality wins is our issue, not the "bad" losses. 11 of our 12 losses are Q1 or Q2. By comparison, Providence has 4 Q3/Q4 losses. Cincy has 5 Q3/Q4 losses. If we could make it to the AAC Final, that would add a couple more quality wins. Who knows at that point!

 

[CL82]

Run the table and it doesn’t matter. That is a definite possibility for us.

(Still doomed)

 

[CTBasketball]

SFA: Not a bad loss.
Evansville: terrible loss. Kentucky just has way way better wins.

Your dedication to the bubble and bubble related information gives me inspiration. Not related to my post, just wanted to say that.

 

[AdamaNation]

The assumption is we likely make a deep run into the NIT vs a quick NCAA exit. Neither is certain. Therefore I rather we win 4 in 4 nights and have everyone expect us to lose early in the NCAA ( remember what everyone said after 5 wins in 5 nights? ). They are still waiting.

I will admit the thought of getting to MSG and staking our claim as we re-join the Big East, is a nice story line.

My point and great subplot if msg. Let’s start the welcoming party. I would love the magic of previous tourney runs but really we are just short on bodies at this point. A few nights in nyc are way more thrilling than one in Albany.

 

[uconnyankee]

We’re not on the bubble guys. We’re in 7th in the American and struggle on the road.

The first year in AAC I think we were 7th or 8th in the league too.
Don't remember how that season ended. Didn’t we get into tourney?

 

[BlueandOG]

This is the truth. We can all try and be objective

Humans do not have the capacity for objectivity - we select data to confirm our beliefs. And I believe we are in the conversation. If we dominate Tulane and have a strong showing in the AAC tournament, we will get the benefit of the doubt. Everyone loves a Cinderella, and we are writing that story.

 

[Caronimo]

If Sunday were a game at Wichita St. or home against SMU (thinking of teams we only played once), it would be more meaningful in terms of playing our way on the bubble. Unfortunately the NCAA does not use KenPom, so please throw that away, and we are something like 2-6 against quad 2.

I guess we'll have to just win the whole bleeping thing.

 

[Austin316]

I’d rather lose by 30 in the first round of the NCAA than win the nit.

this may just be me... but I’d rather win the NIT if that’s the case.

 

[navery12]

If Sunday were a game at Wichita St. or home against SMU (thinking of teams we only played once), it would be more meaningful in terms of playing our way on the bubble. Unfortunately the NCAA does not use KenPom, so please throw that away, and we are something like 2-6 against quad 2.

I guess we'll have to just win the whole bleeping thing.

This is not true, they use KenPom

 

[Caronimo]

This is not true, they use KenPom

How the field of 68 teams is picked for March Madness | NCAA.com where?

 

[navery12]

How the field of 68 teams is picked for March Madness | NCAA.com where?

This is the sheet the committee gets for every team, KenPom is listed between BPI and SAG in the middle of the top row

 

[pepband99]

if we didn't have that St. Joe's loss we might be. It's so bad.

I will say, it's super arbitrary, but Florida/Tulsa bumping up into Q1 does make a huge difference in the resume.

Correct answer. That loss looked bad when it happened, but St. Joe's completely fell apart, and it looks just hideous now.

Of course, the protected teams would get credit for a player like Bouknight not being available for that game, but we won't.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Correct answer. That loss looked bad when it happened, but St. Joe's completely fell apart, and it looks just hideous now.

Of course, the protected teams would get credit for a player like Bouknight not being available for that game, but we won't.

No one would get protected for losing to St. Joe's. That loss is brutal.

UConn has to keep winning. There are probably 20 teams on the Bubble that are 1 bad loss or 2 good ones from being off of it and out of the tournament. Let's where where everything is on Sunday, and root for every 25+ win small conference school to win their tournament in the meantime.

 

[Hoops91]

Taking the UCONN googles off for a sec. I don't think the NCAA takes more than two AAC teams, 3 is the absolute max-UCONN is 6th in the conference.

The AAC conference stinks, read the feedback everyone hates being in it because the lack of talent. UCONN needs to win the conference to get in. We're getting better but it's not our time unless they win the conf championship. On the bright side, because the conference stinks they could win this and get the at large..

 

[Mooch82]

Good lord I had no idea St. Joe's ended up being so bad. They couldn't miss in the first half of that game against us.

 

[Inyatkin]

Semis get us in I think. But let me pose this question. Would you rather get into the dance and possibly leave early or win the NIT? The question is about development. I know what most would say but hardware is important too.

People keep equating making the NIT with winning the NIT. There are good teams there, too.
You want the NCAAs every time

 

[HouseofPain]

We wont be dancing with the big boys this year unless we can at least get to next Sunday

 

[Palatine]

This morning we are KenPom #49.

And Houston is rated #14. Higher than any ZBE team.

This is the sheet the committee gets for every team, KenPom is listed between BPI and SAG in the middle of the top row

View attachment 51636

 

[Slasher]

In my latest update I have UConn #60 overall. Which is up 11 spots from earlier this week. My last at large team is #47. So I have them 13th out. Maybe still a prayer, but they'd need to face three good teams and win two (obviously if they beat all three good teams they'd win the auto-bid.) Even then that is probably not enough since it won't happen in a vacuum. For reference here's how I have teams rated (AAC/Big East):

#7 Seton Hall
#8 Villanova
#11 Creighton
#16 Butler
#26 Houston
#28 Marquette
#38 Wichita State
#39 Xavier
#40 Cincinnati
#43 Providence
#51 Memphis
#60 Connecticut
#63 Tulsa

Everyone else is irrelevant.