Still havent heard a good answer to this question

[Jaydumo20]

Watching the Michigan-Purdue game (upon finishing the Johnnie's game) and I don't have to list the road tests great teams have had this year. I also don't have to point out that the frequency of the road debacle has increased this year and last, ten fold. Teams definitely have struggled on the road across history but not to this extent. Bad to average teams look great at home.
Why is this?

I've heard transfer portal as a possible reason. Is every team all of a sudden way better because of the portal? Not every team cleans up in the off season. There are only a handful of great transfers every off season (as we know all too well). The portal and NIL doesn't account for crappy teams being stellar at home.

 

[Jaydumo20]

Note* Michigan doesn't seem like much of a road environment here. It's like 80% Purdue from the sound of it. Never heard an away crowd get this loud. Michigan bball is in trouble. Anyway....

 

[Hey Adrien!]

I don't have a good answer, but here's a fun fact:

8 teams in the top-25 of NET rankings have perfect home records. This includes three of the top four.

 

[storrsroars]

Note* Michigan doesn't seem like much of a road environment here. It's like 80% Purdue from the sound of it. Never heard an away crowd get this loud. Michigan bball is in trouble. Anyway....

Michigan under Howard:
20: Covid (19-12)
21: Elite Eight
22: Sweet 16
23: NIT
24: Garbage

Definitely not headed in the correct direction.

 

[Jaydumo20]

I don't have a good answer, but here's a fun fact:

8 teams in the top-25 of NET rankings have perfect home records. This includes three of the top four.

View attachment 96897

Crazy. Not to mention the 25th ranked team...LJVM Coliseum is the new Phog Allen apparently.

 

[willie99]

Atmosphere, great crowds elevate their teams

Don't think there's any debate this year

 

[DogMania]

Possibly 2 reasons:

1. Crowd can boost a teams confidence energizing the home team and create a hostile environment for the away team often making them rush their offense and shots.

2. But I think the biggest factor is the impact is on how the refs end up calling the games. This could be in the form of calling it favor of the home team where crowd reaction can result in a foul that wasn't or non-calls.

The SJ win over Creighton is a good example. Both teams got away with what looked like a lot fouls that would be called in most games, with SJ getting away with more of those. Plus add to that, this type of called game benefits the lesser talented team, in this clear case SJ.

 

[Improviser]

Maybe it is as simple as the home team's familiarity with the rims on the baskets at their venue, or the lines on the gym floor boundaries.

Crowd noise certainly motivates the home team, and generally road games disfavor the road team for whatever reason and whatever the overall seasonal quality disparity of the two teams.

Who doesn't perform better in an athletic or non-athletic event when people are cheering you on, rather than jeering you on.

No performer likes the jeering. Hurley didn't like it after the Creighton game, and Luka tried to get a fan thrown out during a game.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Think the portal has actually made top teams worse.

In past years teams like Kansas, Duke, and UNC used to be able to stack talent for 3-4 years in the same system. Now guys leave and they have to replace highly recruited guys who used to develop there with mid major transfers who, at the end of the day, are not more talented than the guys they are replacing and teams don’t have the same continuity of playing with the same guys.

We’ve done an amazing job of finding the right balance of great recruiting, retention, and portal fits to do a great job in this era.

Even though we’ve thrived, at the end of the day the transfer portal is hurting the overall produce of college sports in general.

 

[auror]

The question OP is asking isn't why home teams win more often.

it's why they're winning even more often than ever this year.

I think it's probably just parity due to COVID 5th years and transfer portal. The 8th team and 60th team are closer than ever.

Also, teams are more reliant on jumps than ever before at an increasing rate (especially from role players), and that is something that is better at home than away.

 

[Jaydumo20]

The question OP is asking isn't why home teams win more often.

it's why they're winning even more often than ever this year.

I think it's probably just parity due to COVID 5th years and transfer portal. The 8th team and 60th team are closer than ever.

Yep. And Thank you for clearing that up.

Also I think you may be onto something: An effect where the mid major best players or the bottom feeders of the p4s best are transferring up and the talent is bottlenecking.

but it still doesn't explain why bottom teams who lose their best to the portal still perform well at home.

 

[auror]

Yep. And Thank you for clearing that up.

Also I think you may be onto something: An effect where the mid major best players or the bottom feeders of the p4s best are transferring up and the talent is bottlenecking.

but it still doesn't explain why bottom teams who lose their best to the portal still perform well at home.

I should note that home teams aren't actually winning at the highest rate in years (60.1% overall this year, 2020 and 2018 were higher and it used to be regularly in the low 60s% in 80s, 90s, and 00s). It's specifically unranked home teams beating top 25 teams that is higher than ever, and I think that specifically points to the parity answer. COVID 5th years probably more relevant than anything for the worse teams. There's just more talent in the country than usual.

 

[EnochRoot]

Think the portal has actually made top teams worse.

In past years teams like Kansas, Duke, and UNC used to be able to stack talent for 3-4 years in the same system. Now guys leave and they have to replace highly recruited guys who used to develop there with mid major transfers who, at the end of the day, are not more talented than the guys they are replacing and teams don’t have the same continuity of playing with the same guys.

We’ve done an amazing job of finding the right balance of great recruiting, retention, and portal fits to do a great job in this era.

Even though we’ve thrived, at the end of the day the transfer portal is hurting the overall produce of college sports in general.

IMO Forcing the powerhouse teams to have to play their young talent (or risk losing it to the portal) rather than simply stacking the roster to preserve the traditional power structure in CBB isn't necessarily a bad thing. And the parity over the past few seasons isn't bad, either. Of course you really can't ready too much into all of this until the extra-year(s) players caused by COVID are out of the game.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Yep. And Thank you for clearing that up.

Also I think you may be onto something: An effect where the mid major best players or the bottom feeders of the p4s best are transferring up and the talent is bottlenecking.

but it still doesn't explain why bottom teams who lose their best to the portal still perform well at home.

Think about someone like Bryce Hopkins going from Kentucky to Providence while Kentucky picks up someone who used to be a good player at Louisville.

Kentucky doesn’t replace Bryce talent wise necessarily but Providence gets a player they normally don’t get through recruiting.

 

[Jaydumo20]

I should note that home teams aren't actually winning at the highest rate in years (60.1% overall this year, 2020 and 2018 were higher and it used to be regularly in the low 60s% in 80s, 90s, and 00s). It's specifically unranked home teams beating top 25 teams that is higher than ever, and I think that specifically points to the parity answer. COVID 5th years probably more relevant than anything for the worse teams. There's just more talent in the country than usual.

Way more prevalent with the unranked teams vs top 25. True. Covid year def may play a huge part.
( although Big 12 is having a big home win uptick. Close to 70% this year.)

 

[huskiesNhoos]

people tend to play better and have more energy when there's 10,000 people cheering for them vs the other way around....seems pretty straightforward

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

IMO Forcing the powerhouse teams to have to play their young talent (or risk losing it to the portal) rather than simply stacking the roster to preserve the traditional power structure in CBB isn't necessarily a bad thing. And the parity over the past few seasons isn't bad, either. Of course you really can't ready too much into all of this until the extra-year(s) players caused by COVID are out of the game.

Think the reason casual sports fans watch CBB is to see the stars of tomorrow. At the end of the day you’re not finding the stars of tomorrow through the transfer portal and coaches using it make it so they don’t have to play their young talent.

Because Antonio Reeves is at UK right now Cal doesn’t play Rob Dillingham as much as he probably should be, who’s a top 10 pick super talent. Pitino picked up Simeon Wilcher late but he doesn’t play because of all the guys who came in. There’s examples of that on our roster too.

You can see why coaches do it. It allows them to bring in vets who are more developed to save them from having to do that part of the job as fast, but it hurts the product entertainment wise.

 

[Doheny]

Talking about home court advantage brings to mind a question I've had. The home team supplies the balls. Different brands can have a different feel, and the pressure can vary (within specs, of course). Can this give a small advantage to the home team?

 

[Tenspro2002]

I don't have a good answer, but here's a fun fact:

8 teams in the top-25 of NET rankings have perfect home records. This includes three of the top four.

View attachment 96897

Wake 15-0 at home and 2-7 on the road really stands out.

What is going on this year?

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

I don't have a good answer, but here's a fun fact:

8 teams in the top-25 of NET rankings have perfect home records. This includes three of the top four.

View attachment 96897

UConn is one of 9 teams undefeated on neutral courts, one of 9 teams with 6 wins or more in a way games, and one of 6 teams with 3 or fewer road losses.

Plus a 4-2 record against these listed teams.

Just win games, one at a time.

 

[auror]

Way more prevalent with the unranked teams vs top 25. True. Covid year def may play a huge part.
( although Big 12 is having a big home win uptick. Close to 70% this year.)

This newsletter came out right on time. (This post is free but many are paid).

Three weeks out from Selection Sunday, the song remains the same

A man, a plan, a tournament, Phoenix

statsbywill.substack.com

Chaos is real and still exists, but the narrative of AP Top 10 road teams struggling at unranked competition is doing a lot of heavy lifting to make this appear as wild as 2023. It isn’t, but it’s still pretty frisky.

The story is just like it was in 2023: the deeper you go, the more relatively strong and intense the future field becomes. By the time you get to the back half of the top 50, you’re staring down one of the strongest groups in tournament history.

The top teams are better than last year (average strength overall), but once again the 30-50 teams are quite good relative to average. I do think that's due to more overall talent in the game leveling the playing field.

 

[DogMania]

Oh, so you're saying that top teams are losing to lesser teams on the road at a greater clip the last couple sessons? Is that true?

If so, I'm not sure what the cause would be. Maybe it's a parody thing due to the portal as some have already pointed out.

I've always thought that it was hard to win on the road especially with the better conferences. I've noticed some head scratching losses with many of the top 25 teams losing to unranked teams within their conference, but I didn't think that was so uncommon.

 

[Spaceman213J]

I think the transfer portal and the 1 and dones have hurt teams on the road.

Home teams, especially those with loud home crowds get several advantages. One, you get the adrenaline boost. Guys tend to be quicker, a hair faster and jump a little higher when they are pumped up.
When crowds are really loud, and just how loud they care sometimes does not translate on tv, can really affect the communication on defensive end. It's even more important for young teams or teams with new players to be able to talk on defense. You get more defensive breakdowns on the road and a few easy possessions can be the difference in a lot of games.
Finally, it doesn't happen often because these kids have a lot of pride, but you are also less likely to quit at home than on the road.

 

[HooperScooper]

Oh, so you're saying that top teams are losing to lesser teams on the road at a greater clip the last couple sessons? Is that true?

If so, I'm not sure what the cause would be. Maybe it's a parody thing due to the portal as some have already pointed out.

I've always thought that it was hard to win on the road especially with the better conferences. I've noticed some head scratching losses with many of the top 25 teams losing to unranked teams within their conference, but I didn't think that was so uncommon.

This is about 4 weeks old but figured I would post it. Would like to see updated numbers.

The updated numbers are as follows: after UNC's loss at Georgia Tech, AP top-10 teams are now 25-29 on the road against unranked opponents this season. That represents a winning percentage of 46.3, which is 27.0 percentage points lower than the historical average in such matchups and 15.7 percentage points lower than the all-time worst win-rate in such matchups. So if it feels like top-10 teams are losing road games to unranked opponents more often than normal, it's because they are.

College basketball rankings: North Carolina, Tennessee slip in Top 25 And 1 after upsets create chaos

The Tar Heels lost to Georgia Tech and the Volunteers were defeated by South Carolina on a wild night

www.cbssports.com

 

[DogMania]

This is about 4 weeks old but figured I would post it. Would like to see updated numbers.

The updated numbers are as follows: after UNC's loss at Georgia Tech, AP top-10 teams are now 25-29 on the road against unranked opponents this season. That represents a winning percentage of 46.3, which is 27.0 percentage points lower than the historical average in such matchups and 15.7 percentage points lower than the all-time worst win-rate in such matchups. So if it feels like top-10 teams are losing road games to unranked opponents more often than normal, it's because they are.

College basketball rankings: North Carolina, Tennessee slip in Top 25 And 1 after upsets create chaos

The Tar Heels lost to Georgia Tech and the Volunteers were defeated by South Carolina on a wild night

www.cbssports.com

Thanks for the details. So what is causing this?