Stanford Now #1 Seed? Seriously?

[ScuderiaDiU]

Yes Massey uses last year as a starting point. I’m 100% sure it is entirely phased out during the year. If you doubt it, ask him.

This is correct. It is phased out over the first 7 games of the year. We are well past that.

 

[ScuderiaDiU]

There are many "dangerous" teams this year. Will this will be a year when we see a team not seeded #1 or #2 that makes it to the Final 4?

Only Oregon fits that description, maybe...

 

[Tonyc]

Im not really concerned about being ranked 1 by anybody but the NCAA. We have been number 1 in the polls for a few weeks and imo we should be number 1 in the NCAAs. Hey we have 1 loss on the road and we have beaten 4 out of 5 top 25 teams.

 

[Centerstream]

I get "wow" a lot. It is all part of walking the line of insanity and genius. I embrace it.

You seem to hate South Carolina. I don't love them either. But you can't just look at one game (in each case) and make a decision based on that. South Carolina could easily have turned around and beaten Texas A&M the next time they met them. Same with NC State. Decisions are made on the entire body of work. ALL of the wins and ALL of the losses and what the MOV was in each case all matter. This is why my opinion on Oregon surprises you. If they learn how to close out games they will be in the chase for the final four. Balanced teams are always dangerous. Our men's program has shown that in the past. You can't see the big picture when you focus on a game or two. South Carolina and Baylor BOTH deserve one seeds over NC State and Texas A&M. And Oregon is a classic bracket busting nightmare. They are the kind of team that can lose in the first round or go all the way. I want no part of them.

Having said that, it would not shock me to see Oregon as our 4 seed and Baylor as our 2 seed as well as ending up having to face South Carolina in the semifinals instead of whatever weak team gets the fourth 1 seed. The NCAA loves to make our path hell. Why not face the four most dangerous teams not named UConn to win it all.

I don't hate SoCar. The only teams I hate are not WBB teams.
And if you want to use the "if only" scenarios, then I guess about 15 teams could be considered a #1 seed because according to you, all losses can be "if only..." washed away.

 

[LoTrader]

Only Oregon fits that description, maybe...

I guess then they should shrink this to a 16 team tournament

 

[King Kong]

This morning's NET Top 16:

1	1	Stanford	Pac-12	25-2	13-1	6-1	6-0	0-0
2	2	UConn	Big East	23-1	10-1	2-0	11-0	0-0
3	3	South Carolina	SEC	22-4	7-3	5-0	10-1	0-0
4	4	Baylor	Big 12	21-2	10-1	0-0	11-1	0-0
5	5	Maryland	Big Ten	21-2	9-1	2-1	10-0	0-0
6	6	Louisville	ACC	23-3	7-1	3-1	13-1	0-0
7	8	NC State	ACC	20-2	6-2	3-0	11-0	0-0
8	7	UCLA	Pac-12	16-5	5-2	3-1	8-2	0-0
9	9	Indiana	Big Ten	18-4	8-2	0-0	10-2	0-0
10	10	Oregon	Pac-12	13-8	6-2	0-2	7-4	0-0
11	11	Rutgers	Big Ten	14-3	5-2	0-0	9-1	0-0
12	12	Texas A&M	SEC	23-2	9-1	1-1	13-0	0-0
13	13	Georgia	SEC	20-6	8-2	2-1	10-3	0-0
14	15	Tennessee	SEC	16-7	4-4	1-1	11-2	0-0
15	14	Arizona	Pac-12	16-5	4-3	1-1	11-1	0-0
16	16	Gonzaga	WCC	21-3	8-2	4-1	9-0	0-0

I agree with the top 4, in this order: UConn, Stanford, South Carolina, & Baylor. It seems that, based on recent play, UConn has closed the gap with Stanford, & it is now pick 'em - it could change substantially in the 5 games intervening before UConn & Stanford might meet. UConn's team chemistry is a beautiful thing now.

 

[UcMiami]

This is correct. It is phased out over the first 7 games of the year. We are well past that.

Find this unlikely, but have no way to get back to Massey ratings after 7 games - but by the 7th game SC had already lost to NC St and there were a whole bunch of teams that were still undefeated and I doubt SC dropped way down Massey ratings and at that point except for the NC St game, the other 6 games were against teams with undistinguished losses as well as a loss to SC.

 

[ConnecticutBB]

Does anyone know for sure that UCONN is locked in as one of the #1 seeds...any chance we might all be surprised on selection Monday?

 

[Vowelguy]

Does anyone know for sure that UCONN is locked in as one of the #1 seeds...any chance we might all be surprised on selection Monday?

Well nothing is guaranteed, since the bracket has not been announced.

But I can say with 99.99999% confidence UConn will be a 1 seed.

 

[King Kong]

I think in a year like this where so many games (particularly big OOC games) have been cancelled it is really hard to base things on NET. Also teams like Oregon are ranked way too highly for how they have done this year which makes Stanfords wins against them look better then they are etc.

Well, It's absolutely true that the high regard for the PAC12 has floated all PAC12 boats, & that has something to do with it; Oregon's high ranking with 8 losses, is amazing. But Stanford is an excellent team to the eye, & probably the biggest threat to #12.

 

[UcMiami]

Honestly - I think this NCAA is going to be wild - while most good teams seem to be getting some sort of rhythm, the year has been full of fits and starts and with the limited OOC and stumbles by most teams in their conference games no one including Uconn can have a lot of confidence that they will be in the FF. I am watching the scores in the B10 today/tonight and 2 top 16 teams have gone down and a third ranked team is trailing by 14 to unranked teams.

 

[willtalk]

Dadgummit, I hate to admit being wrong.

i was (apparently) thinking about the "reveal" six days before selection day. That reveal was merely waiting on tourney results to confirm Baylor and Maryland. but it was:

Top 16​

• 1 SEEDS - Oregon, South Carolina, Baylor, Maryland
• 2 SEEDS - Louisville, UCLA, Stanford, UConn
• 3 SEEDS - Arizona, Northwestern, Mississippi State, N.C. State
• 4 SEEDS - Gonzaga, Oregon State, Iowa, DePaul

UConn had lost to all of (and only) the 1-seeds except Maryland during the season. Still had a stronger resume than anybody this year.

Not necessarily! Some UConn fans assumed that because they were otherwise undefeated and only beaten by the top three teams that they should be rated number four. Put into context that does not necessarily hold water. The not only were beaten, but were not even close to the level of those team. They also did not play any top teams except DePaul ( who lacked height and was custom made to not be able to take advantage of their weakness in the paint. so naturally they would not have sustained any other losses. Assuming that they were the fourth best team is only a rationalization. They never played any other team that had any sort of chance at beating them except those three.

 

[ScuderiaDiU]

I don't hate SoCar. The only teams I hate are not WBB teams.
And if you want to use the "if only" scenarios, then I guess about 15 teams could be considered a #1 seed because according to you, all losses can be "if only..." washed away.

Don't put words in my mouth. I am not saying South Carolina and Baylor should be 1 seeds because of any "if only" scenarios. I said that the entire body of work should be looked at and not just the games you cherry picked. The "only if" argument is why ALL games need to be considered. I never extended that to including hypothetical or "only if" scenarios. The entire body of work can, however, illuminate if a loss, or win, was a statistical anomaly. If so, those games matter too. You just don't want them to. You prefer to simplify the decision to only head-to-head matchups or Top 25 matchups. Sure, that makes the analysis easier but it is also lazy.

 

[ScuderiaDiU]

Find this unlikely, but have no way to get back to Massey ratings after 7 games - but by the 7th game SC had already lost to NC St and there were a whole bunch of teams that were still undefeated and I doubt SC dropped way down Massey ratings and at that point except for the NC St game, the other 6 games were against teams with undistinguished losses as well as a loss to SC.

Well, as unlikely as you find it, it is true. They know, generally, how long it takes all teams to reach 7+ games. They taper the pre-season "guess" over that time period. It IS how it works. In an iterative algorithm, all teams are connected in 7 games.