Sport gambling, where do you stand?

[Tenspro2002]

Honest question. How many of you gamblers are married with children?

I sports-bet because it's one of the few hobbies that I can do with intermittent attention from anywhere lol

My wife doesn't care about the money because:
1) We have an understanding that if I bust out my initial "buy in," I'm done. And I've never come close to that.
2) I win in the long run for aforementioned reasons.

 

[The Yakk]

I used to bet sports through a bookie when sports betting was illegal. Then the state decided that betting was legal as long as you fork over the vig to the state. I still place bets through that same bookie.

The bookie probably gives you credit, too. Good luck placing a legal bet without forking over the cash up front.

But with bookies you have your own collection issues. I'm curious, Glastonbury--or anyone else--have you ever hit a big score like a longshot futures bet and then actually collected the money from the bookie?

You can have a trusted relationship with someone for years, but it all means nothing when they default.

 

[The Yakk]

Here's the thing about gambling. If you want to consistently make money, it takes YEARS to learn the ins and outs of the sports betting market. I'm a prime example. Started gambling Junior year at UConn with $10 bets and was not good whatsoever. There were even moments where I lost more than I was comfortable with and it led to some difficult times (Gambling when only making $250 a week while working at Red Rock Cafe is not ideal). Funny to think about whether I'd still be gambling if it wasn't for UConn bringing the ship home.

I've been fortunate enough to learn from my mistakes over the 10 years since then. Knowing that if lines like UConn -10 vs DePaul (it's a hyperbolic example but work with me) are posted, you should never be on UConn. The betting public obviously would race to bet -10 vs an abysmal DePaul team (say 80% of bets/tickets are on UConn), which is exactly what Vegas/the sportsbooks want! Another, this time real life, example is #8 Auburn @ Alabama the other night. Alabama was -2.5!!!! Auburn was on a 5 game win streak against the spread! The line told you everything about which side to bet (even though it was a clencher with that final 3 being called off, still a W). Finding yourself betting against the public in most cases will start steering you in the right direction.

Getting the "Action Network Sports Betting" app and paying for a Pro membership ($100/yr I think?) is a must in my opinion. It will show you public betting % and money % on each side of a game. They also have indicators telling you if big money is on a side, "sharps" or respected bettors are on a side, or if the Action team's experts are on a side (you can pick and choose who you want to follow). There's also a ton of articles (which include KenPom rankings, offensive/defensive metrics, shooting regression, etc.) for specific games. Follow me @VinnyD33 on there)

Bottom line is that you really have to work hard to be a profitable gambler (the Pros boast about anything 55%+ win rate ATS). I knew people who had addictive personalities, would lose way more than they had to their names with a bookie, only for them to try to bet their way out of it (DO NOT DO THIS). Gambling is dangerous without doing your research or having zero self control. If you do it for fun, keep it light and bet whatever the hell you desire.

TL;DR... I know, but this is something I'm truly passionate about and I could go on and on. I win enough $ that I consider it my second job (the tax man sees it that way too).

Feel free to start a conversation. Be happy to help and answer any questions.

Last month NCAAB --- ROI: 34.17% Record: 33-15-2 Wins: 69% (v nice)

This is easily the best advice in this thread. Kudos, well-written.

Vegas sportsbooks are setting the lines to win bets against the ill- informed public, not to merely collect the vig. Bet on their side.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I was down $ 200-300 that I didn’t have to my friends bookie in late 80s. Made it back betting Ivy League football over 3-4 weeks , have never bet other than with friends since. I hate the losing (ie casinos) MUCH more than I enjoy the winning or thrill/action. It adds stress to something I watch and root for out of pure enjoyment. No thanks.

Rather than bet I put 10lk in an IRA into Draft Kings earlier this year. That kind of investment gambling I’m ok with and candidly take some perverse pleasure in the stock benefiting from being the ‘house’ With odds stacked in my favor instead of being the mark.

 

[uconngb]

Thank you.

My beer is Rheingold the dry beer
Ask for Rheingold when ever you buy beer
Rheingold’s head stays so high,
cause the beer‘s extra dry
Won‘t you try extra dry Rheingold beer.

Schaefer is the one beer to have when you’re having more than one, or

Ah, hah, sittin pretty…..all together in Schaefer City

 

[UConn Esq]

I sports bet not quite daily but bet weekly. Mostly CBB and NFL. I bet UConn to cover the first half every game. Has hit about 80% iykyk.

 

[ucp990411]

I assume we covered today

 

[XLCenterFan]

EV is short for expected value, which is the amount a gambler can expect to make in the long term over many trials. @Tenspro2002 used the example of a 50% profit boost on a single -110 bet. This bet is going to +EV: it doesn't matter if you happen to lose on 1 specific game, the bet will make money in the long term because the odds are in your favor.

You mentioned you are a poker player and EV comes up in poker all the time. The simplest example is if I go all-in pre-flop and you have pocket aces, you will always have a +EV call. Even if I have pocket kings and flop a set, your call is still a longterm winning play.

A regular -110 sports bet can potentially still be +EV if you have a big enough edge over the sportsbook that you can overcome the vig when you pick winners. It's pretty hard to get to that point though, and I can recognize that I'm not there. Even when I see a line that looks attractive to me, I won't bet it because I know I don't have the edge.

I know all of this. Was just wondering what you considered +EV. Some people don’t understand it, but you do.

I might disagree that -110 bets can be considered +EV though. I also don’t know if I consider simply taking advantage of Sportsbook bonuses and promotions to be gambling, per se. Seems more like investing or taking advantage of situations that are essentially no-risk.

 

[awfuldan]

I know all of this. Was just wondering what you considered +EV. Some people don’t understand it, but you do.

I might disagree that -110 bets can be considered +EV though. I also don’t know if I consider simply taking advantage of Sportsbook bonuses and promotions to be gambling, per se. Seems more like investing or taking advantage of situations that are essentially no-risk.

Oh gotcha, that makes sense.

I would argue that taking advantage of promotions and bonuses is an essential piece of being an advantage gambler. It’s the low hanging fruit for sure, but it’s a way to make money. I think if you look at how a lot of winning sports bettors operate, it does look a lot like investing. Most people don’t win by making picks, they win by shopping for lines and exploiting inefficiencies in the market. Even the people that win by making picks are often using computer models and tools like that.

Do you consider playing poker gambling? Because I take a similar approach to poker that I do to sports betting - I’m not going to play at a table where I don’t have an edge. I grind hard and study continuously to make sure I am better than the other players at the casino. Can I still lose if I’m the best player at the table? Yeah I can and often will. But it’s still +EV for me to play either way.

 

[uconngb]

I assume we covered today

As Warner Wolf used to say: “if you had Xavier plus 42.5 today…..,YOU LOSE!!”

 

[Tenspro2002]

I know all of this. Was just wondering what you considered +EV. Some people don’t understand it, but you do.

I might disagree that -110 bets can be considered +EV though. I also don’t know if I consider simply taking advantage of Sportsbook bonuses and promotions to be gambling, per se. Seems more like investing or taking advantage of situations that are essentially no-risk.

The promos make it +EV. The level of variance you tolerate after that is up to you.

I can (and sometimes do) immediately hedge +EV promos at the expense of some EV to reduce variance to zero for that particular bet.

Sometimes I let it ride. Or somewhere in between -- it's a sliding scale.

You can do it no-risk, but you can alternatively allow for more variance to maximize EV.

 

[XLCenterFan]

Oh gotcha, that makes sense.

I would argue that taking advantage of promotions and bonuses is an essential piece of being an advantage gambler. It’s the low hanging fruit for sure, but it’s a way to make money. I think if you look at how a lot of winning sports bettors operate, it does look a lot like investing. Most people don’t win by making picks, they win by shopping for lines and exploiting inefficiencies in the market. Even the people that win by making picks are often using computer models and tools like that.

Do you consider playing poker gambling? Because I take a similar approach to poker that I do to sports betting - I’m not going to play at a table where I don’t have an edge. I grind hard and study continuously to make sure I am better than the other players at the casino. Can I still lose if I’m the best player at the table? Yeah I can and often will. But it’s still +EV for me to play either way.

For me, I consider playing poker to be a form of gambling, yes. I am not a robot and I have a range of thoughts and emotions while playing. There may be somedays and some games where I play straight up, ABC poker, and just play the odds/math. Other days, and especially if the game is lively, I will loosen up my range and mix it up much more. I also "gamble" far less in tournaments than I do in cash games. It's so easy to spew in cash...and can be fun! That's another thing. Sometimes I just feel like splashing in a game and not being the rock.

 

[UConnSean]

A win rate can be relevant...especially if you bet the same unit every game. We would also have to know the vig, but there's more than zero value in that stat.

My point was that you could easily have a sub 50% win rate and still be profitable (betting all +EV long shots for example)

 

[UConnSean]

Never once claimed I was a pro. And win rate certainly matters when all your bets are ATS.

Yea was referring to the comment in your post about pros and their win rates - i dont think win rate is a useful stat whatsoever to determine if someone is a profitable gambler

 

[2014DualCs]

Yea was referring to the comment in your post about pros and their win rates - i dont think win rate is a useful stat whatsoever to determine if someone is a profitable gambler

My original post was referring to ATS win %, which matters. But you are right in the fact that you could somehow be an expert at betting NASCAR or Golf, for example, and win 10-20% of your bets and be profitable.