San Diego State Scouting Report

[housekeys]

One other factor to note: SDSU is 47th in KenPom's "luck" metric, while we are 308th.

Does Kenpom have a "Dooomed" metric? We should be at the top, I would think.

 

[EdgewoodNHV]

It's weird that we've played these heavily imbalanced teams, one way or the other, all Tournament. FAU would have been an interesting test, being pretty good at both ends.

That's what makes elite teams, teams that actually have elite offense and defense. Of course, the other two "metric elite" teams -- Houston and Alabama -- did not advance, so anything can happen obviously.

 

[boba]

Out of curiosity but with genuine interest, have you ever considered one of these for the good guys? I always wonder what other teams put up on the board and how they are going defend or attack UConn.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

I just don’t see enough weapons on SDSU to keep this competitive. They just don’t have enough folks that can reliably score agains this defense. They’re going to need to dominate defensively and play their absolute A+ game on offense. I just don’t see it.

 

[Cheddie]

I'll never understand how they play the Final Four on Saturday and the Final on Monday. The worst TV viewing night, a work night, and only a day break in between. They should play the following Saturday night, but that would make too much sense.

The teams, media and fans would all have to travel twice, book hotels, twice, etc. There isn't much of a break between games, but it makes sense to keep everyone in town.

As for a TV viewing night, way too many events are scheduled with minimal concern for large parts of audiences, particularly younger fans who won't be able to stay up late enough.

 

[caw]

So I'll be that guy. If SDSU goes double bigs that don't shoot...

 

[bendm]

@Hey Adrien! what do you make of SDSU ranking only 101st in steal rate despite their elite D? I was thinking TOs were my only real concern since we tend to be sloppy with the ball at times, but maybe SDSU doesnt force as many as I assumed.

 

[Scoe]

Diarra could have a role in this game, he can go after their top ball handler to give one of our guys a breather and can afford to pick up fouls.

 

[SwingDog]

Their best win was by 7 against Alabama which shot 3-27 beyond the arc. There's the game right there. I have a feeling we'll shoot a little better than that on Monday. I like Hurley's body blows approach, mixing it up on offense with feeds in the post, driving to the rim, and hitting from perimeter. SDSU has an awful lot of ground to cover. And our defense will be locked in. I like our chances. Looking forward to the matchup.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Diarra could have a role in this game, he can go after their top ball handler to give one of our guys a breather and can afford to pick up fouls.

Ehh, I don’t know if we will really need his defense in this one. I think Hurley probably just wants to spread the floor and run as much off-ball motion and screens as possible. If UConn wins, it’s because their offense is just head and shoulders above SDSU.

 

[tzznandrew]

So I'll be that guy. If SDSU goes double bigs that don't shoot...

Why should we change our top 10 offense and defense that has won every tournament game by double figures? I'd rather have their 4 chasing Karaban than playing comfortably.

 

[Ports21]

Most reminiscent of Arkansas to me

 

[HuskyBaggins]

You vs network tv. Not even close.

Every bit of data they have access to tells them when to say (pay) the final should be played.

it's all about the dollar. If fans wanted another day/time, the finals would follow the fans.

Come on. There is one reason and one explanation for why it is the way it is - it has ALWAYS been that way. That's it. There is no "data" that suggests Monday night is the right night. I virtually guarantee there is data that says otherwise. But this is how it has always been. The end. The fact that you think "nEtWoRk tV" is all knowing is hilarious. They're dinosaurs

 

[WhereistheDove?]

@Hey Adrien!, not sure if this was you posting these before, but any chance you have their shooting heat charts?

 

[Hey Adrien!]

@Hey Adrien! what do you make of SDSU ranking only 101st in steal rate despite their elite D? I was thinking TOs were my only real concern since we tend to be sloppy with the ball at times, but maybe SDSU doesnt force as many as I assumed.

IMO, generating steals is just one part of many parts that make a defense elite.

For example, UConn's steal rate ranks 175th in the nation, which is about D1 median. When I think about our defense, I think about how hard it is for teams to take quality shots: like Miami is a great offense but their shot selection was so questionable against us. When they took quality shots, they were often rushed. That's what I love about UConn's defense: through effort, scheme, athletic ability and rotations, it's like six defenders are on the court.

Especially in college, when teams overpursue for steals and fail, that exposes their defense. St. John's comes to mind: they are a pain and the butt, but I don't think they had a great defense under Anderson. Iowa State is another team like that. Missouri is another team: elite steal rate, but if your team can handle it, then no problem, just move the ball well and find the open man, which is something UConn is very good at.

On my watch, I think Trammell is the only player who really sells our for steals while Butler gets steals just as an outcome based on playing hard-as-nails D. And then you got lengthy, versatile defenders like Mensah/Arop/Johnson take up space and make you feel like they are always on the right spot. Houston plays that style, so does UCLA...

Wow quick work on this, great job.

Thanks, SDSU has been one of my favorite mid-majors for a while and I like recording their marquee games: Boise State v SDSU was probably the last game of theirs that I watched as I really like both teams and coaches.

@Hey Adrien! Off the charts evaluation..Super job.. Curious about your thoughts on SDSU's transition D.. Will they be able to disrupt Jackson's impact on the flow of game after collecting a defensive board and heading up-court to start a secondary break and look to distribute..As he so often does..

Edit: Obviously precision passing with speed and accuracy beats a D down the floor vs dribbling..

The thing that comes to mind is their excellence on the boards at both ends. SDSU is very committed on the offensive glass, especially since they play with two bigs close to the hoop.

Considering that, I can see transition opportunities most available when Bradley attacks and misses at the rim since likely three Aztecs will be within 12 feet of the bucket leaving for juicy transition opportunities.

Those tend to happen more with Clingan at the 5 since he is such a good rebounder and his size allows him to see up the court to find the trailers.

 

[CL82]

San Diego State: 32-6
KenPom Rating: 14
NET ranking: 14
5-5 vs Q1 ; 6-1 vs Q2​

Best Win

• 3/24/23 71-64 over Alabama
  • Darrion Trammell: 21 points, 3-5 from 3, 2 stls
  • SDSU shot 35.3% from 3, Alabama was 3-27 from 3 (11.1%)

Worst Loss

• 1/31/23 76-66 to Nevada
  • Three players from Nevada scored 18+
  • Only ⅓ of Nevada’s FGAs from 3, team was 20-33 from 2 and 20-23 from the line
  • Lamont Butler only played 20 minutes and fouled out.
  • Forced Nevada to only 6 finals

OFFENSE: 68th in efficiency​

• 76th in offensive rebounding rate
• 109th in preventing turnovers
• 112th in FTA/FGA rate
• 156th with a 72.4 FT%
• 164th with a 34.3 3p%, but just 33.8% of their FGAs are from 3 (285th)
• 172nd in average length of possession (17.6 seconds)
• 176th in A/FGM (50.5%)
• 246th with a 48.8 2P%

DEFENSE: 4th in efficiency​

• Elite perimeter D:
  • 3rd in opp. 3P%: 28.1%
  • But their stout interior D forces teams to settle for threes (40.2% FGAs, 90th most)
• 17th in length of average length of opponent possession (18.5 seconds)
• 45th in block rate
  • Mensah: 9.8%, 14th in the nation
  • Arop: 4.6%, but not enough attempts to quality
  • LeDee: 2.6%, 475th in the nation
  • Johnson: 2.5%, 495th in the nation
• 68th in defensive rebounding rate
• 72nd in forcing ISO (just 46.3% of FGM from assists)
• 101st in steal rate:
  • Butler: 3.5%, 79th in nation
  • Trammell: 2.8%, 251st in nation
  • Arop: 2.4%,
• 140th in FTA prevention
  • But 314th in opp. FT% (74.5%)
• 145th in opp. 2P% (49.3%)

Other metrics:

• 21st in D1 experience (average 2.96 years)
• 32nd in bench minutes (37.5%)
  • In comparison, UConn is 221st w/ 29.3%, lower than I expected
• 39th in minutes continuity (61%)
• 330th in 2-Foul Participation in first half (7.6%)

While Steve Fisher is a architect of the San Diego State program, Brian Dutcher, the associate head coach under Fisher, has admirably continued the program’s success post-Fisher, leading the Aztecs to four of the first five eligible seasons with Dutcher at the helm and their first Final Four and Championship Final in program history.

Similar to Dayton, arguably the program’s previous best chance to advance in the tournament was in 2020 when the Malachi Flynn led Aztecs went 30-2, but the canceled tournament snuffed out those dreams.

Continuing the tradition of Steve Fisher, for decades San Diego State has lived up their tradition as a hard-nosed, physical defensive squad that grinds their teams to a glacial pace: in fact, nine of their wins this season were with scoring totals in the 60s or less with a 45-43 win over Fresno State the best example of the Aztecs’ preferred style.

Part of what keeps the defensive energy high and sustained is that they have arguably the deepest team in the tournament: their nine rotation pieces average between 16-28 mpg, circumventing the perils of foul trouble, especially in the frontcourt where both power forwards and centers play almost interchangeably.

What has sustained San Diego State’s success is their ever-presence of veteran, reloading teams. Case in point, five of their rotation pieces are fifth-year seniors, four of which played for the Aztecs last season.

After fielding the 167th ranked offense last season and in obvious need of more scoring balance, Dutcher hit the transfer portal last offseason adding guard Darrion Trammell (17.3 ppg in his last season at Seattle) and wing Micah Parrish (12.1 ppg in his last season at Oakland). Of course, in typical San Diego State fashion, both additions also happened to be on all-defensive teams in their respective conferences, further strengthening the team’s defense.

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When teams face San Diego State for the first time, the focus tends to start with fifth-year power guard Matt Bradley because 1) at 6’4 220, he’s a mismatch nightmare; 2) he is San Diego State’s best individual offense player. Starting each game at the 3, but then also shifting down to the 2 when Micah Parrish is on the bench, Bradley reminds me of one of my favorite recent players, Admiral Scofield, as in he can attack the offense in a variety of ways: through powering his way through the hoop, from deep and where he is most dangerous: as a triple-threat option at the elbow, akin to Miami’s Isaiah Wong, where he can facilitate and find the open man.

Rather than playing with a true on-ball point guard, Bradley shares the distribution duties with his backcourt mates Lamont Butler and Darion Trammell.

The hero from the semifinal matchup against FAU, Butler is arguably one of the best defensive combo guards in the country who on offense, like Arkansas’ Devo Davis, doesn’t wow in one particular aspect but can contribute in a variety of ways.

With no D1 offers out of high school, Trammell reminds me a bit of an undersized version of Gonzaga’s Malachi Smith in that in his former school, Seattle, he was the do-everything, bucket-getting guard but at SDSU has drastically lowered his usage rate and has fit into the team identity. While his counting stats look modest, the shifty combo guard is more than capable in breaking down the defense and creating his own offense. On defense, the pesty Trammell worms his way into his opponents without generating fouls.

While Bradley demands respect on offense, he is one of the few less efficient Aztecs on defense so if he’s on Jackson, I can see Jackson being one of the safer facilitators on offense while Hawkins and Newton will likely draw a combo of Trammell and Butler as their defenders.

The Aztecs’ two bench options in the backcourt are led by Oakland transfer Micah Parrish. An athletic and versatile defender who could guard one through four, Parrish one of San Diego State’s best perimeter scorers along with fifth-year guard Adam Seiko, who is San Diego State’s best perimeter shooter and worst defender.

Considering that Bradley and Seiko are the Aztecs’ two worst defenders, recent lineups show that they almost never share the floor together, an obvious strategic move by Dutcher to maximize defensive efficiency.

As the modern NCAA leans more to four- and five-out teams that focus on shooting, San Diego State’s frontcourt is a bit of a throwback in that none of the four pieces are perimeter threats. In fact, Mensah/Arop/LeDee combined this season for just six three point attempts.

The star of the frontcourt is fifth-year big Nathan Mensah, one of the most versatile defensive weapons in the NCAA. An elite shot-blocker with the strength and athleticism to defend out to the perimeter, Mensah is arguably the heart and soul of the Aztecs: his effort is endless. Unlike other bigs we’ve played against this tournament, Mensah is able to defend hard without getting into foul trouble. In fact, foul trouble is usually not an issue with the Aztecs, in general.

Mensah’s tag team mate is TCU via Ohio State fifth-year transfer Jason LeDee, who is San Diego State’s heaviest and most gifted offensive weapon in the frontcourt who possesses a variety of high and low-post moves and deft footwork. While not as gifted athletically and defensively as Mensah, he is a capable defender.

The power forward tag team features senior Keshad Johnson and fifth-year senior Aguek Arop, both 6’7 225 and both arguably the most athletically gifted and most defensively versatile players on the Aztecs, each with the true ability to defend every position. While Arop’s offense is mostly solely around the rim, Johnson possesses some willingness to stretch the floor, attempting 1.1 3PAs per game.

Simply put, defended by Johnson/Arop, Alex Karaban will be pestered every minute he is on the floor, but he has had plenty of experience this year against gifted defensive power forwards, most recently Iona’s Shema, Saint Mary’s Bowen and Arkansas’ Jordan Walsh.

Playing against defensively stout, grind-you-down teams that make it hard to take good shots make he think that both Calcaterra and Alleyne will be super valuable on Monday both in their ability to prevent turnovers and their shot-taking ability. Both combined for 39 minutes last night and I can see similar minutes Monday.

KenPom’s prediction: UConn wins 69 (nice)-64

It’s coming, the title game is here! This game is going to be a grind, you can’t deny UConn’s recent success against grind you down, molasses style teams: 87-69 over Providence, 71-59 over Villanova, 70-55 over Saint Mary’s…

Overall, I like how UConn has played a variety of teams in this tournament and have won in a variety of ways after scoring just 70 points against Saint Mary’s and 88 points against Arkansas.

Nothing left to do but enjoy the game on Monday.

Thank you for the Boneyard. I love you all.

Thanks for doing these all year! They are outstanding, and I look forward to them before every game.

 

[auror]

@Hey Adrien!, not sure if this was you posting these before, but any chance you have their shooting heat charts?

Offense left, defense right. Might do the individual players later.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Offense left, defense right. Might do the individual players later.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Offense left, defense right. Might do the individual players later.

So they're good at wing and corner 3s and in the paint, and defending the entire 3-point line and sort of at the rim, except for the area right in front.

I gotta be honest, that chart on the left does not scream mediocre offensive team, though I suppose this chart is relative to all D-I.

 

[UConnSwag11]

 

[housekeys]

Q. How likely are they to throw a zone? UConn has all sorts of weapons, but I wonder if they throw in some junk defenses to get us off guard?

 

[Palatine]

Most reminiscent of Arkansas to me

SDSU lost to Arkansas in OT earlier this year.

 

[Scoe]

We need to expect the unexpected expect them to mug us every play.

 

[Scoe]

Ehh, I don’t know if we will really need his defense in this one. I think Hurley probably just wants to spread the floor and run as much off-ball motion and screens as possible. If UConn wins, it’s because their offense is just head and shoulders above SDSU.

Do we need him on D no but could we use him yes.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

Do we need him on D no but could we use him yes.

Maybe. The issue is if you bring Diarra in for his D, you lose a lot on the offensive end. Made a lot of sense against Miami, where their path to victory was guards getting real hot on offense. That’s not much of a risk against SDSU and bringing in a defensive stopper who isn’t much of a factor on the offensive end would seemingly play right into their game plan.