Rumor du Jour

[RegisteredUconn]

FWIW, bcu to B1G is getting a lot love in twitter land...

I just checked the sky outside my house. No pigs.

 

[Oxford Bob]

My point is a one loss FSU in the Big12 has a better shot at getting in than a one loss FSU in the ACC.

Totally agree with that. My feeling is it will be easier for them to go unbeaten in the ACC, then it will to be a 1 or even 2 loss team in big 12.

Here is the major sticking point of the big/final 4 (or whatever they call it). Are they just going to take the 4 conference champions, or are they taking the top 4 in the final BCS? My guess is that at least one of the big 4 conferences (SEC) will continually have multiple teams in the top 4 of the BCS, then include ND on very good years and 2 big boys get left out.

 

[RealCT12]

I see where you're coming from Bob. I just think FSU has to jump if they get the chance or they could be stuck if all hell breaks loose. The problem is that even in a weak ACC, they still can't manage to go undefeated. They will recruit a lot better in the Big12 to be able to compete with those teams.

 

[ctchamps]

Totally agree with that. My feeling is it will be easier for them to go unbeaten in the ACC, then it will to be a 1 or even 2 loss team in big 12.

Here is the major sticking point of the big/final 4 (or whatever they call it). Are they just going to take the 4 conference champions, or are they taking the top 4 in the final BCS? My guess is that at least one of the big 4 conferences (SEC) will continually have multiple teams in the top 4 of the BCS, then include ND on very good years and 2 big boys get left out.

They get two chances to prove themselves every year - dominate the ACC and beat a decent Florida team. If they do that they will be playoff bound. If they don't do that then they don't deserve to be playoff bound.

 

[junglehusky]

Welp, it's on orangebloods. Texas/Chip Brown trying to shake the tree and see what falls out - hoping for Notre Dame?

 

[Jericho]

I see where you're coming from Bob. I just think FSU has to jump if they get the chance or they could be stuck if all hell breaks loose. The problem is that even in a weak ACC, they still can't manage to go undefeated. They will recruit a lot better in the Big12 to be able to compete with those teams.

Doubtful. FSU is one of the prize schools out there. It's not like musical chairs where you got a grab a seat immediately. FSU's powerful enough they can let things play out.

Also, recruiting has never been FSU's problem. They recruit really well. It's virtually impossible for them to recruit better. What they need is a real coach. Cause right now they can't even beat the ACC schools consistently.

 

[Jericho]

Totally agree with that. My feeling is it will be easier for them to go unbeaten in the ACC, then it will to be a 1 or even 2 loss team in big 12.

Here is the major sticking point of the big/final 4 (or whatever they call it). Are they just going to take the 4 conference champions, or are they taking the top 4 in the final BCS? My guess is that at least one of the big 4 conferences (SEC) will continually have multiple teams in the top 4 of the BCS, then include ND on very good years and 2 big boys get left out.

Another fair point. I don't think it's been firmly decided who gets selected for the playoffs, but it sounds like its a committee and not polls. So the BCS will go out the window. What factors the committee uses remains to be seen. I tend to think there will be a preference for conference champs. Meaning a non-champion needs to clearly show its better than other options. And that's difficult to do in such small seasons.

It's certainly true that FSU will have an easier time winning the ACC than the Big 12. We've seen OSU and then KSU stumble against lower tier opponents in the Big 12 in recent years. The Big 12 is strong in football, aided by the large presence in Texas. I think the worry is that FSU turns into West Virginia, i.e. just another team.

An undefeated FSU in the ACC will have no problem making a playoffs. A one loss FSU team will potentially have some issues, depending on the loss and the other schools that year.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Welp, it's on orangebloods. Texas/Chip Brown trying to shake the tree and see what falls out - hoping for Notre Dame?

Given that UT's athletic department approves everything Chip puts up on his blog, this is a pretty powerful confirmation of the rumors.

 

[Marty Jackson]

If Alabama went 12-0,
Oregon went 12-0,
KState went 12-0,
Ohio State was eligible at 12-0,
and Florida State went 12-0:

Here Florida State would be number 5 due to having the weakest conference. One loss SEC teams would probably even be in over an undefeated ACC team. Are all these undefeated teams likely to happen? Probably not, but it shows how not being in one of the top 4 conferences can hurt your odds.

not that simple... OOC games would matter.

 

[RealCT12]

Doubtful. FSU is one of the prize schools out there. It's not like musical chairs where you got a grab a seat immediately. FSU's powerful enough they can let things play out.

Also, recruiting has never been FSU's problem. They recruit really well. It's virtually impossible for them to recruit better. What they need is a real coach. Cause right now they can't even beat the ACC schools consistently.

What conference really considers FSU a prize? The only conference that wants FSU other than the ACC is the Big12. Florida would block them in the SEC/SEC doesn't need them to increase market, they're too academically inferior for the B1G, and too far for the PAC.

FSU will definitely recruit better. They get to increase their profile playing up to 4 Texas schools. Go to their roster profile on ESPN and see that they have exactly 3 players from Texas. The vast majority of their team is from the state of Florida with Georgia being second. If FSU was recruiting really well, they'd have a more nationally diverse team.

 

[RealCT12]

Another fair point. I don't think it's been firmly decided who gets selected for the playoffs, but it sounds like its a committee and not polls. So the BCS will go out the window. What factors the committee uses remains to be seen. I tend to think there will be a preference for conference champs. Meaning a non-champion needs to clearly show its better than other options. And that's difficult to do in such small seasons.

It's certainly true that FSU will have an easier time winning the ACC than the Big 12. We've seen OSU and then KSU stumble against lower tier opponents in the Big 12 in recent years. The Big 12 is strong in football, aided by the large presence in Texas. I think the worry is that FSU turns into West Virginia, i.e. just another team.

An undefeated FSU in the ACC will have no problem making a playoffs. A one loss FSU team will potentially have some issues, depending on the loss and the other schools that year.

Yes a committee decides and due to strength of schedule and peoples' high perception of the SEC, you can bet 2 SEC teams will make the playoffs every year. That leaves 2 spots for 4 conferences champions (not even including a good notre dame). The only way FSU gets in is if they go undefeated.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Yes a committee decides and due to strength of schedule and peoples' high perception of the SEC, you can bet 2 SEC teams will make the playoffs every year. That leaves 2 spots for 4 conferences champions (not even including a good notre dame). The only way FSU gets in is if they go undefeated.

I don't think it is quite that simple. It is worth noting that the bottom 8 SEC schools did not win a single game against the Top 6. And Alabama and Georgia both avoided playing either of the top 3 programs in the other division until the SEC Championship. In other words, the two schools that had the easiest schedule in each division won the league, and one of them is going to the National Championship game. Each of the Top 6 programs went 1-1 against each of the other top programs in their own division.

The bottom half of the SEC is not that good. The only quality wins from the bottom half of the league were Tennessee over NC State, Kentucky over Kent State and Missouri over Arizona State. That's it.

As for FSU, they have the clearest path to an undefeated season of any top program in the country, outside of maybe Boise State. What are the chances that Alabama or LSU go undefeated in any given year? How about Oregon in the Pac 12 North with Stanford and Oregon State? Or Kansas State or Texas playing a full round robin against the rest of the Big 12?

 

[RealCT12]

I don't think it is quite that simple. It is worth noting that the bottom 8 SEC schools did not win a single game against the Top 6. And Alabama and Georgia both avoided playing either of the top 3 programs in the other division until the SEC Championship. In other words, the two schools that had the easiest schedule in each division won the league, and one of them is going to the National Championship game. Each of the Top 6 programs went 1-1 against each of the other top programs in their own division.

The bottom half of the SEC is not that good. The only quality wins from the bottom half of the league were Tennessee over NC State, Kentucky over Kent State and Missouri over Arizona State. That's it.

As for FSU, they have the clearest path to an undefeated season of any top program in the country, outside of maybe Boise State. What are the chances that Alabama or LSU go undefeated in any given year? How about Oregon in the Pac 12 North with Stanford and Oregon State? Or Kansas State or Texas playing a full round robin against the rest of the Big 12?

I'm not saying the SEC is top to bottom the best conference, but it's all about perception. That is why the SEC has 6 teams in the top 10 BCS. With this type of perception, Alabama, LSU, or any team in the SEC don't have to be undefeated to make a playoff or play for a national championship.

 

[Vowelguy]

I'm not saying the SEC is top to bottom the best conference, but it's all about perception. That is why the SEC has 6 teams in the top 10 BCS. With this type of perception, Alabama, LSU, or any team in the SEC don't have to be undefeated to make a playoff or play for a national championship.

No, perception is not everything. The BCS computers have SEC teams at #2, #3, #7, #8.

FSU is helped, not hurt, by perception, as its #12 in the polls but #16 in the computers.

 

[RealCT12]

No, perception is not everything. The BCS computers have SEC teams at #2, #3, #7, #8.

FSU is helped, not hurt, by perception, as its #12 in the polls but #16 in the computers.

And yet in all three polls that determine the rankings, FSU (11-2) is ranked behind all the other two-loss SEC teams. That's even in spite of the fact that FSU won its conference and the other two loss SEC teams didn't. I'd say perception has something to do with that.

 

[Jericho]

What conference really considers FSU a prize? The only conference that wants FSU other than the ACC is the Big12. Florida would block them in the SEC/SEC doesn't need them to increase market, they're too academically inferior for the B1G, and too far for the PAC.

FSU will definitely recruit better. They get to increase their profile playing up to 4 Texas schools. Go to their roster profile on ESPN and see that they have exactly 3 players from Texas. The vast majority of their team is from the state of Florida with Georgia being second. If FSU was recruiting really well, they'd have a more nationally diverse team.

The Big 12 is the realistic alternative for FSU, but they're by far the Big 12's best option. Do you really think that the Big 12 will fill up on other schools not named FSU? FSU will get taken care of. They don't have to worry about schools "stealing" their spots (and honestly, who is going to go Big 12 if FSU doesn't). That allows FSU to be very patient.

As for recruiting, most schools recruit local. That's no suprise. But your kidding yourself if you think FSU is not doing well. According to ESPN rankings, their 2012 class was #2 in the nation (behind Alabama). 2011 was #1 overall. 2010 was #6. 2009 was #8. They're doing just fine. The idea they're going to get this windfall of Texas recruits by playing one (maybe 2) games a year there seems misguided.

 

[Jericho]

And yet in all three polls that determine the rankings, FSU (11-2) is ranked behind all the other two-loss SEC teams. That's even in spite of the fact that FSU won its conference and the other two loss SEC teams didn't. I'd say perception has something to do with that.

But the SEC isn't on the table. The Big 12 is. And FSU is right behind Oklahoma a 2 loss Oklahoma team in the polls.

 

[Jericho]

Yes a committee decides and due to strength of schedule and peoples' high perception of the SEC, you can bet 2 SEC teams will make the playoffs every year. That leaves 2 spots for 4 conferences champions (not even including a good notre dame). The only way FSU gets in is if they go undefeated.

Doubtful. If you had a playoff this year, the likely participants would be Notre Dame, Alabama, Kansas State and Stanford. Getting two schools in will need several conferences (and Notre Dame) to have off years. I don't see how you can take a non-division champ Florida over a conference champ like Stanford. Hell, I don't see how you can take Florida over Georgia.

 

[RealCT12]

Doubtful. If you had a playoff this year, the likely participants would be Notre Dame, Alabama, Kansas State and Stanford. Getting two schools in will need several conferences (and Notre Dame) to have off years. I don't see how you can take a non-division champ Florida over a conference champ like Stanford. Hell, I don't see how you can take Florida over Georgia.

Just look back to last year. Oklahoma State won their conference with one loss. Alabama also had one loss and didn't play in their conference championship game. Yet Alabama got the nod over Okla St. Just because you're a conference champion, doesn't mean you'd make the playoff over other teams. Should Wisconsin make the playoff this year (if there was one) since they won the B1G?

 

[RealCT12]

But the SEC isn't on the table. The Big 12 is. And FSU is right behind Oklahoma a 2 loss Oklahoma team in the polls.

My post was in response to someone saying FSU was helped by perception in the polls. What I said was that 4 SEC teams with the same records as ACC champ FSU were ranked ahead of them. It had nothing to do with FSU's shot at the SEC. The weak perception of the ACC hurts them in the polls when compared to other conferences.

 

[tzznandrew]

Just look back to last year. Oklahoma State won their conference with one loss. Alabama also had one loss and didn't play in their conference championship game. Yet Alabama got the nod over Okla St. Just because you're a conference champion, doesn't mean you'd make the playoff over other teams. Should Wisconsin make the playoff this year (if there was one) since they won the B1G?

You're overcomplicating this. It's not so much conference, as where you start and when you lose. Alabama was ranked #2 when undefeated on Oct. 30. Then they lost a 3 point overtime game to LSU and fell to #4 the next week, behind all other BCS undefeated teams, but stayed ahead of Boise (biased reasons, we would agree), and the other 1 loss teams. That's because some of them, like Oregon, had gotten beat by LSU by more than Alabama did.

If Stanford or OSU won out, they would have been ahead of Alabama and played LSU. They didn't. I still think that OSU should have went to the BCS title game, but that is irrelevant. It's where you start, when you lose, and how much you lose by.

In years with a tournament, I think you'll see conference champions (with good records and not terrible losses) be privileged over non-conference champs. B12 was furious last year, I think rightly.

 

[RealCT12]

You're overcomplicating this. It's not so much conference, as where you start and when you lose. Alabama was ranked #2 when undefeated on Oct. 30. Then they lost a 3 point overtime game to LSU and fell to #4 the next week, behind all other BCS undefeated teams, but stayed ahead of Boise (biased reasons, we would agree), and the other 1 loss teams. That's because some of them, like Oregon, had gotten beat by LSU by more than Alabama did.

If Stanford or OSU won out, they would have been ahead of Alabama and played LSU. They didn't. I still think that OSU should have went to the BCS title game, but that is irrelevant. It's where you start, when you lose, and how much you lose by.

In years with a tournament, I think you'll see conference champions (with good records and not terrible losses) be privileged over non-conference champs. B12 was furious last year, I think rightly.

I agree with what you're saying too, especially that Okla St was robbed last year. SEC year in and year out are going to be overly ranked high and they're gonna have multiple teams in the top 5 every year, resulting in the potential of more than one playoff berth. In my opinion, winning the PAC doesn't excuse Stanford's loss to Washington. Just because you win your conference, it doesn't mean you are one of the top 4 teams in the country. The two top teams may very well be from the same conference.

 

[kyleslamb]

Given that UT's athletic department approves everything Chip puts up on his blog, this is a pretty powerful confirmation of the rumors.

And not just approve. Dictate.

 

[TouchdownHusky]

So what it sounds like is that when and if UConn ever gets into the ACC, the ACC really won't be the ACC we've all hoped for. It'll be more like . . . Well . . . . The Big East.

 

[HuskyHawk]

They get two chances to prove themselves every year - dominate the ACC and beat a decent Florida team. If they do that they will be playoff bound. If they don't do that then they don't deserve to be playoff bound.

On top of that they will be playing ND fairly often.

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