Rumor du Jour

[ctchamps]

I am still skeptical about the "breakup" of the ACC. I don't think Carolina, Duke even Virginia really want to go. They'll try and up the anti from ESPN then decide where they want to be. they are even a worse fit for the SEC. They just aren't good enouogh, and when UNC tried to become that good, they got in trouble. And I don't think losing Florida State and Clemson is that big a deal anyway. Florida State has always been a fish out of water in the ACC and Clemson is, well, Clemson. Last year they won the ACC last year for the first time since 1991, the year before Florida State came aboard. Clemson is the definition of nothing special. The ACC would miss Florida State, I think, but not for too long. The Seminoles would pretty quickly become an also ran in the B-12 and be forgotten as a power. Even if you lost both FSU and Clemson, you'd have a decent conference.

And all this time I thought you have been saying football drives the bus. So the BE messed things up by letting the football schools leave but the ACC doesn't need the only real football schools in their inventory. Makes no sense to me.

 

[RealCT12]

How come no one ever talks about the Pac-12? All the focus is east. For this 16 team superconference thing to come into being the Pac-10 has to take 4 from the Big12, and then that leaves 6 teams in the 12. It's likelier at that point that you'd have a merger between the B(12)6 and the 6 from the ACC which = 12. ND? Who knows. UConn and Cincy would bring that league to 14. If ND joins one of the leagues, there's only a spot for one more.

Because the Big12 can't be raided due to the GOR. That is why the PAC has said they have an eye on San Diego State and Boise. They are in a good spot regionally because they can't be raided, however that same geography prevents them from raiding others (now that their only real raid option Big12 has a GOR).

 

[ctchamps]

How come no one ever talks about the Pac-12? All the focus is east. For this 16 team superconference thing to come into being the Pac-10 has to take 4 from the Big12, and then that leaves 6 teams in the 12. It's likelier at that point that you'd have a merger between the B(12)6 and the 6 from the ACC which = 12. ND? Who knows. UConn and Cincy would bring that league to 14. If ND joins one of the leagues, there's only a spot for one more.

They are Australia - limited access to everyone but not many can attack them. Their bests options are limited. They are hoping the LHN struggles.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

This sounds like a circular rumor.

-A radio station hints at Florida State going to the Big12.
-MHver3 picks it up on Twitter.
-The West Virginia Conference Talk board picks up.
-Briefly mentioned on sports talk radio.

I've gotten to the point that unless it's coming from McMurphy, I'm not paying it any attention.

 

[Danzz]

FSU, Clemson, Miami and someone else to announce for Big 12 soon.

The 3 stooges of the WVU board are all circle jerking about this, but in a twist, an FSU "insider" who usually calls them idiots is now saying that his "sources" say that Clemson and FSU will pitch themselves as a package deal to the SEC and if the SEC says no, will go to the Big 12.

I wonder if the "insiders" script this stuff out, because geauxnoles is like a wrestler who suddenly switches sides, and all the fans are stunned. I wonder if the owners of the BGN board are in on it in order to boost page views.

Initially I thought it sounded crazy but the more you think about it schools have to be investigating every opportunity and scenario.A few years ago FSU and Clemson to the BIG 12 would sound nuts. Today nuts is the new landscape so anything is possible. Fans, message boards and tweets can't be blamed for picking up on the rumors because very often the rumors find a way of becoming reality.Or not.

 

[ctchamps]

Initially I thought it sounded crazy but the more you think about it schools have to be investigating every opportunity and scenario.A few years ago FSU and Clemson to the BIG 12 would sound nuts. Today nuts is the new landscape so anything is possible. Fans, message boards and tweets can't be blamed for picking up on the rumors because very often the rumors find a way of becoming reality.Or not.

You are only paranoid until someone kills you!

 

[Vowelguy]

Any conference will take Duke if Duke asks.

A private school with a crappy football team?
Um, no.

 

[sportsart]

A private school with a crappy football team?
Um, no.

But they are going bowling this year. I think the SEC wants them.

 

[Vowelguy]

Now Clemson, FSU and GTech to the B12 would make some sense if the B12 really wants to make a kill shot to the ACC

How is it a kill shot? Even if they lose 4, the ACC still would have 10 teams. And UConn, Cinci, et al in the wings.

 

[Vowelguy]

Both Miami & FSU would not be great. Then the ACC might have some interest in reestablishing its Florida footprint, and going after USF/UCF.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

This sounds like a circular rumor.

-A radio station hints at Florida State going to the Big12.
-MHver3 picks it up on Twitter.
-The West Virginia Conference Talk board picks up.
-Briefly mentioned on sports talk radio.

I've gotten to the point that unless it's coming from McMurphy, I'm not paying it any attention.

McMurphy tells you what already happened.

MHver3 did say that the Big 10 was going to expand, and he laid down on the tracks on that rumor over the summer. He only got 1 of the 4 predicted additions correct, and missed Rutgers, but I will give him a little credit for at least calling the Big 10 to add some schools and not backing down.

He is just saying there is momentum now, not that anything is even imminent. As I have said before, I think MHver3's source for all things ACC is an insider on the FSU Rivals board that must feed MHver3 rumors, so all he has is one school's perspective on expansion.

 

[RMoore1999]

FWIW, bcu to B1G is getting a lot love in twitter land...

I'm surprised anyone here is surprised about FSU to B12. Just a matter of time. What would be the argument in favor of them staying in the acc? The reason they havent left yet is they're holding out hope the SEC will come calling (which wont happen as long as VTCH and UNC/NCST are on the board, and even then it would be unlikely).

 

[Jericho]

Then you are missing my ultimate point, which was tv money. Whether or not either of those aforementioned teams delivers a certain city or a portion of a certain state is only part of the equation. The fact of the matter is that all of those teams have significant fanbases (someone had posted a listing on another thread, but I'm not sure where). So that, coupled with the fact that the networks supporting the Big12 would love to have further penetration into Florida, Georgia, etc., and it's easy to see what the driver of this is. Again, in case anyone has missed it; it's money!

(the original discussion was improved football product versus tv money being the driver for acquisition, if indeed this move came to pass)

Well of course money drives it all. That's pretty much a no-brainer. I don't think that has to be stated. No conference is expanding unless it feels it can make them more money.

The point is how much money do these schools make? FSU and too a lesser extent Clemson should make money because they have passionate fan bases that are more SEC like. Miami and Georgia Tech are less clear. They merely exist in highly populated areas. Neither GT or Miami have proven they have large, dedicated fan bases (In Tech's case is lack of hardcore fans, in Miami's case its fair weather fans).

Look, here's the bottom line point. FSU to the Big 12 makes sense for both sides. FSU would make more money in the Big 12 (but not SEC or Big 10 money). The Big 12 should make more money with FSU. But despite a year of rumors, it has not happened. That tells me that at least one of the parties is not on board. This leaves you see options:

(1) Neither party wants the other one. We'll call this mutual disinterest. In this scenario, you need both sides to change their mind; or

(2) Big 12 said no to FSU. It's hard for me to see a conference desperate to add TCU and West Virginia saying no to a better school than both of them. Sure, it's possible this is what happened. But I don't see it being likely. Even if some say they're happy at 10, you make room for a Florida State. Any school that's not Oklahoma or Texas should be ecstatic if FSU wanted in. It solidifies what was a real shaky conference; or

(3) FSU said no to the Big 12. I find this much more likely and plausible. Comments from FSU higher ups, like their own President, evidence the fact many don't want to move. If FSU did say no when it had full disclosure of both ACC and Big 12 contracts, then I don't see anything that's changed since then that will make FSU change their mind. Something needs to happen to make the ACC weaker or the Big 12 stronger to revisit this decision.

 

[Oxford Bob]

FSU wants the ACC to stick together. Their best chance to win a conference and go to the BCS Champ. game is in the ACC. Now they are in a tough spot, if UNC, UVA, NC ST or Va Tech leave they face the chance of being stuck in the league with a bunch of Big East teams if they say no to the Big 12. The SEC doesn't want them and they don't fit in the B!G. They are hoping the B!G makes a move before they have to decide what to do.

 

[RMoore1999]

FSU wants the ACC to stick together. Their best chance to win a conference and go to the BCS Champ. game is in the ACC. Now they are in a tough spot, if UNC, UVA, NC ST or Va Tech leave they face the chance of being stuck in the league with a bunch of Big East teams if they say no to the Big 12. The SEC doesn't want them and they don't fit in the B!G. They are hoping the B!G makes a move before they have to decide what to do.

It will be the very rare year that the ACC champ cracks a 4-team playoff. FSU is likely in the process of trying to negotiate the best deal possible with the B12, and they need another acc school to join with them, so they need the B12 to determine the other school from Miami, Clemson or GTCH.

 

[UConnDan97]

Well of course money drives it all. That's pretty much a no-brainer. I don't think that has to be stated. No conference is expanding unless it feels it can make them more money.

The point is how much money do these schools make? FSU and too a lesser extent Clemson should make money because they have passionate fan bases that are more SEC like. Miami and Georgia Tech are less clear. They merely exist in highly populated areas. Neither GT or Miami have proven they have large, dedicated fan bases (In Tech's case is lack of hardcore fans, in Miami's case its fair weather fans).

Look, here's the bottom line point. FSU to the Big 12 makes sense for both sides. FSU would make more money in the Big 12 (but not SEC or Big 10 money). The Big 12 should make more money with FSU. But despite a year of rumors, it has not happened. That tells me that at least one of the parties is not on board. This leaves you see options:

(1) Neither party wants the other one. We'll call this mutual disinterest. In this scenario, you need both sides to change their mind; or

(2) Big 12 said no to FSU. It's hard for me to see a conference desperate to add TCU and West Virginia saying no to a better school than both of them. Sure, it's possible this is what happened. But I don't see it being likely. Even if some say they're happy at 10, you make room for a Florida State. Any school that's not Oklahoma or Texas should be ecstatic if FSU wanted in. It solidifies what was a real shaky conference; or

(3) FSU said no to the Big 12. I find this much more likely and plausible. Comments from FSU higher ups, like their own President, evidence the fact many don't want to move. If FSU did say no when it had full disclosure of both ACC and Big 12 contracts, then I don't see anything that's changed since then that will make FSU change their mind. Something needs to happen to make the ACC weaker or the Big 12 stronger to revisit this decision.

First, don't underestimate the need to state that which should be a no-brainer.

Second, your scenarios all avoid one major thing; that the two parties may still be negotiating. That's what this whole thread is about. Could it be that the 50 million exit clause is being worked out or waited on from the lawsuit with Maryland? Could it be that they are working out issues dealing with the GOR? Could it be that they are waiting to hear if there are one or more "traveling partners" involved? I would not make any certain assumptions as to why the deal hasn't happened yet, other than to say it hasn't happened yet. If conference realignment has taught me anything, it's that money can make some strange bed-fellows...

 

[RealCT12]

It will be the very rare year that the ACC champ cracks a 4-team playoff. FSU is likely in the process of trying to negotiate the best deal possible with the B12, and they need another acc school to join with them, so they need the B12 to determine the other school from Miami, Clemson or GTCH.

Exactly. You can bet that the SEC gets at least 2 of 4 playoff spots every year. That leaves 2 spots for the PAC, B1G, and Big12. Right now, the Big12 champ wouldn't even qualify for the playoff. There's no way the ACC champ gets in. The computer ranking component would barely have an ACC team in the BCS top ten. If FSU wants a chance at the playoff, they need to get out of the ACC.

 

[Oxford Bob]

Exactly. You can bet that the SEC gets at least 2 of 4 playoff spots every year. That leaves 2 spots for the PAC, B1G, and Big12. Right now, the Big12 champ wouldn't even qualify for the playoff. There's no way the ACC champ gets in. The computer ranking component would barely have an ACC team in the BCS top ten. If FSU wants a chance at the playoff, they need to get out of the ACC.

Then under your scenario ND should just go join a conference because they will never have a chance to be 1 of the 4 spots. We see every year FSU gets over-rated to start the year, in a weak ACC if they start the year near/in the top 10 they will have a shot of making one of the 4 spots if they go unbeaten.

 

[RealCT12]

Then under your scenario ND should just go join a conference because they will never have a chance to be 1 of the 4 spots. We see every year FSU gets over-rated to start the year, in a weak ACC if they start the year near/in the top 10 they will have a shot of making one of the 4 spots if they go unbeaten.

Notre Dame is an anomaly. If they ever have a good year, their prestige alone will propel them to the top. The ACC is too weak a conference to put them in the playoff. Even before FSU's loss to Florida (when FSU was 10-1), they were ranked 17th in the computers. The only way FSU would make a playoff in the ACC is if they go undefeated, whereas a one or two loss SEC team or Notre Dame would still be able to get in.

 

[Oxford Bob]

That's my point, an undefeated FSU team can get to the final 4 from the ACC. I don't think they will be able to get there in the Big 12.

 

[RMoore1999]

Then under your scenario ND should just go join a conference because they will never have a chance to be 1 of the 4 spots. We see every year FSU gets over-rated to start the year, in a weak ACC if they start the year near/in the top 10 they will have a shot of making one of the 4 spots if they go unbeaten.

Actually, I've expressed around here many times that ND joining the acc in football is about the only thing that will save the league, as that's the one name that ESPN will substantially pay more for narrowing the $$ gap between acc and the Big 4 for FLST and the other acc football schools.

But, since that's highly unlikely to happen in the near future, I think FLST will be in the B12 sooner rather than later.

 

[RealCT12]

If Alabama went 12-0,
Oregon went 12-0,
KState went 12-0,
Ohio State was eligible at 12-0,
and Florida State went 12-0:

Here Florida State would be number 5 due to having the weakest conference. One loss SEC teams would probably even be in over an undefeated ACC team. Are all these undefeated teams likely to happen? Probably not, but it shows how not being in one of the top 4 conferences can hurt your odds.

 

[RealCT12]

That's my point, an undefeated FSU team can get to the final 4 from the ACC. I don't think they will be able to get there in the Big 12.

My point is a one loss FSU in the Big12 has a better shot at getting in than a one loss FSU in the ACC.

 

[Oxford Bob]

Actually, I've expressed around here many times that ND joining the acc in football is about the only thing that will save the league, as that's the one name that ESPN will substantially pay more for narrowing the $$ gap between acc and the Big 4 for FLST and the other acc football schools.

But, since that's highly unlikely to happen in the near future, I think FLST will be in the B12 sooner rather than later.

I agree. I think Pres. Barron is trying to maintain the southern ties the school has and won't have in the big 12. However, in the end the money will be too great for them to pass up.

 

[tzznandrew]

If Alabama went 12-0,
Oregon went 12-0,
KState went 12-0,
Ohio State was eligible at 12-0,
and Florida State went 12-0:

Here Florida State would be number 5 due to having the weakest conference. One loss SEC teams would probably even be in over an undefeated ACC team. Are all these undefeated teams likely to happen? Probably not, but it shows how not being in one of the top 4 conferences can hurt your odds.

The week before they lost, FSU was #4 in the coaches poll. They were ahead of a number of undefeated B12 and SEC teams (only LSU, Oregon, and Alabama were ahead of them). If they won out, including beating Florida, they'd be playing ND in the championship game.

Since so much is the Coaches/Harris poll, its more about where you start than anything else (if there is more than one undefeated team). FSU's issue is that they play Florida at the end of the year, so a loss makes it un-recoverable. If they played it week 1 and lost, they'd still have a chance.