Progress Report: How Have TCU and Utah Fared Since Moving Into Power Conferences?

[Drew]

The Bottom Line

The numbers make it crystal clear that any team—Houston, Memphis, UCF, Colorado State, etc.—that becomes the lucky target of Big 12 expansion will suffer a 20-25% decrease in overall wins and losses and a 30-40% drop in conference production. That is, until they can engineer a turnaround, something that took TCU two years and Utah three.

It’s key to remember that Utah and especially TCU were solid national players when they moved up. The Utes went 13-0 in 2008, finishing the season No. 2 in the AP after knocking off No. 4 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. The Horned Frogs ran the tables in 2010, also posting a 13-0 record and a No. 2 rank after beating No. 4 Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl.

Also worth noting is continuity in coaching. TCU and Utah have both managed to retain the same head coach that got them to a Power league. The Horned Frogs’ Gary Patterson led the program 11 years before the move and the Utes’ Kyle Whittingham put in six years as the head man before the step up. Both chose to stay on through the transition, returning their school back to its winning ways.

Compare that to Houston, who has only had Tom Herman, one of the hottest prospects in coaching, for one season. He’s less invested and arguably could be tempted to move more easily. Then there is UCF and Memphis, both already losing the coach that engineered rises to national prominence.

This makes it logical to assume that any of the Big 12’s supposed targets would suffer even more dramatically than TCU and Utah did when they moved up. And it would take them longer, if ever, to rebound to the win totals prior to the move.

That leads to the bigger question, is a shot to play for the CFB Playoff worth a potential long-term drop in wins for schools like Houston, Memphis, UCF, Colorado State, and even Cincinnati?

Or, should the schools instead wait for the bracket to expand to include the best non-Power team in the country?

Progress Report: How have TCU and Utah Fared since moving into Power Conferences?

 

[UConnTrumbull]

I don't think UCF would see a drop in wins at all.

 

[djct1999]

Neither would UConn. Maybe they lose one or two more football games early on. Maybe the games they lose aren't as close. But every other sport immediately catapults to the upper echelon of the Big12. Every.Other.Sport.

 

[Adios]

Media keeps mentioning other schools but UConn. That means it is presumed we are an eventual shoo-in.

 

[Ldandy]

Articles like this are so dumb. Hey Cincy would you be able to live with the idea of going 6-6 versus 9-3 every year for an extra 20 million? Duuuuuurrrrrrrrrr.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Neither would UConn. Maybe they lose one or two more football games early on. Maybe the games they lose aren't as close. But every other sport immediately catapults to the upper echelon of the Big12. Every.Other.Sport.

Really? Baseball? I don't think so. Basketball? The Big XII is much, much tougher than the American, where we have still failed to win a regular season championship. We'd be among the best, but not clearly the best team (except the women). They don't have soccer or hockey.

 

[Drew]

Neither would UConn. Maybe they lose one or two more football games early on. Maybe the games they lose aren't as close. But every other sport immediately catapults to the upper echelon of the Big12. Every.Other.Sport.

i love UConn as much as anyone on this board but if you think football drops from 6-6 to 5-7 moving from the AAC to the XII you're 100% wrong. TCU, Baylor, OU for certain would've been L's last year and likely OSU, TTU, KSU and UT as well. We haven't been able to score in a long time- we averaged just over 17 points per game last season, one spot above KU. The point of the article is that these 2 schools had top level G5 programs when they moved up and still experienced a heavy adjustment period in terms of W/L.

Now if the question is would I be okay with UConn going 2-10/3-9/4-8 for the next 5 years to be in the XII the answer is obviously yes. But to act like the football team would experience little to no drop off in the XII is absurd.

And for the record I agree our olympic sports would do well in the XII right off the bat. But that isn't what this article is about nor what the XII cares about.

 

[sportsart]

Neither would UConn. Maybe they lose one or two more football games early on. Maybe the games they lose aren't as close. But every other sport immediately catapults to the upper echelon of the Big12. Every.Other.Sport.

I think you missed the sarcasm regarding UCF not having a drop in wins, seeing that they lost all their games in 2015.

 

[ATLDYKA]

Really? Baseball? I don't think so. Basketball? The Big XII is much, much tougher than the American, where we have still failed to win a regular season championship. We'd be among the best, but not clearly the best team (except the women). They don't have soccer or hockey.

Well, seeing that the Big 12 only got 3 teams into the baseball tournament which is the same as the AAC, yes I would say the AAC is up there with them in baseball.

 

[huskypantz]

So this article does a statistical analysis with a sample size of 2? Why not throw UL, Pitt, Cuse etc into the fray so it's more relevant.

 

[TRest]

So this article does a statistical analysis with a sample size of 2? Why not throw UL, Pitt, Cuse etc into the fray so it's more relevant.

Because ACC football doesn't count as big boy football. P4 plus JV.