Poll - Will Amari start for any tip offs this year?

[sun]

Will Amari be given any starts for tip offs this year?
How important are winning tip offs against teams that have very tall centers?
Will her height & shot blocking ability give Geno a reason to start her for tip offs under any circumstances?

 

[diggerfoot]

Auriemma did not start Stevens, a more highly regarded 6’6” player than DeBerry. Also, if Auriemma were to start someone for the sake of the tip off (he wouldn’t), that player would more likely be Patterson, who is both higher up on the depth chart with athleticism that gets her up higher than DeBerry, similar to G. Williams doing the jump instead of Collier.

I predict this poll will not get as many responses as most. There has to be some controversy or doubt to spur engagement. There is neither here. I suppose an argument can be made for why DeBerry should start for a specific circumstance, but the question is “will” not “should,” which means historical events surpasses all other reasoning as a predictor for what Auriemma “will” do. There is no supporting evidence whatsoever that Auriemma “will” start DeBerry for situational reasons (as opposed to having earned the starting spot).

 

[sun]

There's an article below with a section titled: Why Do Teams Want To Win The Tip-Off?
It provides 3 reasons.

1. Because winning the tip-off gives the team an offensive possession needed to score points.

2. Data shows that teams that win the tip-off end up winning the game 52.5% of the time.

3. Time of possession is a crucial stat used by coaches to determine how well the team is doing with ball control. Advanced statistical analysis shows that having the ball more often provides more scoring opportunities & a better chance to win.
It then provides a link to an article that describes the advanced statistical theory.

What is a Tip-Off in Basketball?

Every NBA, WNBA, NCAA, and High School Basketball Game begins with a tip-off. Here is the complete breakdown of it!

thestadiumreviews.com

An Introduction to Advanced Basketball Statistics: Understanding Possession Estimation and the Factors that Control Efficiency

An Introduction to Advanced Basketball Statistics: Understanding Possession Estimation and the Factors that Control Efficiency

www.burntorangenation.com

 

[CL82]

Hopefully not, because it would probably mean other players are injured.

 

[CL82]

2. Data shows that teams that win the tip-off end up winning the game 52.5% of the time.

So pretty much a coin flip. I think that extra 2 1/2% may be due to unequal matchups where the winning team is winning every facet of the game.

 

[oldude]

Winning the opening tip gives a team either 0 or 1 extra possession during a game, depending on whether there is an even or odd number of held balls during the game. Unless Amari earns the starting center position, she will not be in the game for the opening tip.

 

[JellyBean]

I went with "No".

 

[Huskiefan78]

This is a clear no. The fact is that winning a tip has nothing to do with winning/losing the game.

 

[sun]

Auriemma did not start Stevens, a more highly regarded 6’6” player than DeBerry. Also, if Auriemma were to start someone for the sake of the tip off (he wouldn’t), that player would more likely be Patterson, who is both higher up on the depth chart with athleticism that gets her up higher than DeBerry, similar to G. Williams doing the jump instead of Collier.

I predict this poll will not get as many responses as most. There has to be some controversy or doubt to spur engagement. There is neither here. I suppose an argument can be made for why DeBerry should start for a specific circumstance, but the question is “will” not “should,” which means historical events surpasses all other reasoning as a predictor for what Auriemma “will” do. There is no supporting evidence whatsoever that Auriemma “will” start DeBerry for situational reasons (as opposed to having earned the starting spot).

That's interesting because that year UConn lost to Notre Dame in OT on a last second shot in the FF.
It shows how one possession could make a difference.
UConn finished the season with a 36-1 record & Azura didn't win a NC.

They defeated Duke in the Sweet Sixteen and South Carolina in the Elite Eight to reach their 19th Final Four. In the National Semifinal, they lost in overtime on a last second shot for the second consecutive year, this time to Notre Dame, ending the school's 36-game winning streak.

2017–18 UConn Huskies women's basketball team

 

[Bald Husky]

The only time there is a tipoff is at the beginning of the game and the beginning of overtime. Tipoffs are actually meaningless in todays game, and starting someone for that purpose alone would be very questionable.

 

[Skeets]

Winning the opening tip gives a team either 0 or 1 extra possession during a game, depending on whether there is an even or odd number of held balls during the game. Unless Amari earns the starting center position, she will not be in the game for the opening tip.

I was going to mention that. Of course, the possession arrow evens thing out. But it's the same reason football teams defer after winning the coin toss. It gives them at least as many possessions as the opponent in the second half. Sort of like being the home team in baseball, but not nearly that advantageous.

 

[oldude]

I was going to mention that. Of course, the possession arrow evens thing out. But it's the same reason football teams defer after winning the coin toss. It gives them at least as many possessions as the opponent in the second half. Sort of like being the home team in baseball, but not nearly that advantageous.

Football is a little more problematic because of time of possession, but the same principle does apply.

 

[stamfordhusky]

There's an article below with a section titled: Why Do Teams Want To Win The Tip-Off?
It provides 3 reasons.

1. Because winning the tip-off gives the team an offensive possession needed to score points.

2. Data shows that teams that win the tip-off end up winning the game 52.5% of the time.

3. Time of possession is a crucial stat used by coaches to determine how well the team is doing with ball control. Advanced statistical analysis shows that having the ball more often provides more scoring opportunities & a better chance to win.
It then provides a link to an article that describes the advanced statistical theory.

What is a Tip-Off in Basketball?

Every NBA, WNBA, NCAA, and High School Basketball Game begins with a tip-off. Here is the complete breakdown of it!

thestadiumreviews.com

An Introduction to Advanced Basketball Statistics: Understanding Possession Estimation and the Factors that Control Efficiency

An Introduction to Advanced Basketball Statistics: Understanding Possession Estimation and the Factors that Control Efficiency

www.burntorangenation.com

1. Actually winning the tip gives the team an extra 1/2 of a possession. A possession generally is worth slightly more than one point to a team, so winning the tip is worth slightly more than 1/2 of a point.

2. A big reason why teams that win the tip are more likely to win the game is that winning the tip is indicative of having a better big man, which gives you a better chance to win.

3. The author’s point about time of possession is complete nonsense. There are no coaches that monitor time of possession. They monitor points per possession and turnovers etc, but they really don’t care how much time it takes to score. If time of possession were important, teams would run 15 or 20 seconds off the clock before they began their offence. That only happens in the final minutes in reality.

 

[DEpup]

I'm pretty sure Edwards handled the tip when Dorka was injured so I bet she handles it this year.

 

[Rowdy831]

No player would start because they can win a tip. Amari has a skillset similar to Dorka where her outside game is stronger than her inside presence. If Amari can defend inside and rebound to start the break she would be a huge asset to the team and would play a lot. In the end she is a great kid and certainly could add to the mix but no game this year will come down to one possession.

 

[and one]

So a coach starts a tall bench player in hopes of winning the opening tip. Maybe that tall player gets the tip and tips it to a teammate, which isn't a given. Win the tip or not, that bench player plays until either there is a dead ball or the coach burns a TO.
It doesn't sound like that would be a good way to start a game.

 

[meyers7]

Will Amari be given any starts for tip offs this year?

I sincerely hope not. (see 3rd answer)

How important are winning tip offs against teams that have very tall centers?

I wouldn't think hardly any importance. Might give you one extra possession. But UCONN usually has more possessions than opponents anyway. More important for possession is less turnovers and more rebounds.

Will her height & shot blocking ability give Geno a reason to start her for tip offs under any circumstances?

Only if we have a slew of injuries.

 

[DeepThreat]

Rebounding is a more important factor in the number of possessions than is the opening tip. Secondly I would say turnovers both offensively and defensively. Third the pace of the game. If facing an opponent that holds on to the ball and doesn't commit many turnovers, your number of possessions and hence scoring opportunities of course is going to lower. The possession arrow has in my opinion had an impact on the game. When I played in HS jump balls were still in effect. As a 6'2" forward I jumped against against guards and centers on held balls. Won some, lost some.

One last thing; the original post stated 'advanced statistical analysis shows more possessions lead to more scoring opportunities.' Talk about stating the obvious (and no, I am not disparaging the poster).

Sorry one more thing. Is it just me or has Amari completely disappeared from consciousness?

 

[diggerfoot]

That's interesting because that year UConn lost to Notre Dame in OT on a last second shot in the FF.
It shows how one possession could make a difference.
UConn finished the season with a 36-1 record & Azura didn't win a NC.

They defeated Duke in the Sweet Sixteen and South Carolina in the Elite Eight to reach their 19th Final Four. In the National Semifinal, they lost in overtime on a last second shot for the second consecutive year, this time to Notre Dame, ending the school's 36-game winning streak.

2017–18 UConn Huskies women's basketball team

You provide reasons for why DeBerry “should” start for a tip off (neglecting the fact that Patterson would be even more likely to win the jump). Not that I agree with the rationale you present anyways, but it’s irrelevant to the poll question if DeBerry “will” start for that specific purpose.

Whether Auriemma is errant in his judgement or not, there is not a shred of historical evidence to support that he “will” start DeBerry for that situational purpose. Nada. Perhaps you should rephrase the poll question to reflect your true intent.

 

[sun]

Perhaps Amari can learn to be a more vigorous rebounder out of necessity & sooner rather than later.
At the beginning of games there's often a lot of shots being missed that maybe Amari could pull in some RB's with some help from other UConn players boxing opponents out.
Geno will probably experiment & maybe Ice can even play at the 3 position allowing for different sub packages.

Whether Auriemma is errant in his judgement or not, there is not a shred of historical evidence to support that he “will” start DeBerry for that situational purpose. Nada. Perhaps you should rephrase the poll question to reflect your true intent.

Some folks may think that Amari is only worthy of playing during garbage time & that any PT that she gets is some sort of a gift that she doesn't earn through ability or practice.
The reality is that she has some gifts that some have never considered to be much of an asset.
Since we're here let's think outside of the box while looking at the same options that Geno needs to consider when doing his coaching duties.
I can't evaluate Amari's progress but Geno does.
He's the one that needs to decide how much height that UConn needs & when.
Sometimes who he needs to play is out of his control due to circumstances & match ups.
So why not consider it?
It's an exercise & entertainment for us as fans to try to follow Geno's logic.

 

[sun]

I also think that when answering the question that folks should look at UConn's schedule.
There's usually 2 games per week & in Cayman they play 2 games in 2 days.
Sometimes they play a tough game & an easy game in the same week only days apart.
It may make sense to play a different set of starters for an easier game before or after a tougher game to give more people a chance to play & develop under the pressure of actual game conditions.
It could help players recover for the next tough game & it would show that UConn has learned some lessons about helpig players to endure the entire season without being forced to battle with nuisances like bruising & swelling.
This issues occur from practicing too.

The Big East schedule also allows opportunity for different starting line ups.
How else are UConn's young players suppose to develop if they can't learn during actual games?
It's not like some of the BE games are going to be close.
With 13 players practicing hard & putting in elite effort, they could all deserve some meaningful PT & not just garbage time.
Amari should at least be prepared to play center & to tip-off for when she's really needed.

2023-24 Women's Basketball Schedule - University of Connecticut Athletics

The official 2023-24 Women's Basketball schedule for the University of Connecticut Huskies

uconnhuskies.com

 

[victor64]

Could it be as simple as Amari has not been healthy for two years? Could her back issues restricted her mobility to the point where it prevented her from extended run? Could she have put off the surgery because of the team's shortage of bodies?

I am starting to lean toward the idea the Amari is fabulous teammate that is patiently waiting for her turn. How cool would it be to see a whole new Amari because she is finally healthy?

 

[Bone Dog]

I answered the question very narrowly with a YES. I think once or twice Amari will find herself jumping for the opening tip. This doesn't mean she'll get major minutes. But I suspect there may be some morale issues involved in having her do so.

And yes, Ayanna is maybe a better leaper, like Gabby was. But I also notice that when the ball gets wedged between the backboard and rim -- I believe it happened twice last season -- Amari is who gets it. And Amari has dunked the ball in prate before.

Why might Geno want to have Amari play for the first few minutes of the 1st quarter? Well, assuming she's practicing better post-surgery, he might think there's some shock value if Amari can block a few shots and intimidate some opponents before subbing Ice or Ayanna in for her.

 

[Topsail]

i just don’t see a start in her future this year. I hope her defense has improved a lot to get her on the court more.