PAC 12 final offer

[DGB]

Well played by FOX using B1G to steal an important media property from Apple.

If the Big East is smart, they need to seek out Apple looking for something similar at the next media deal negotiation.

This. The only way UConn gets into the Big 12 is if 1) Fox gets worried they are going to lose UConn inventory to ESPN via the ACC; or 2) Fox gets worried they are going to lose UConn inventory to Apple via a contract with the Big East.

The combination of ESPN and the ACC is such a cluster that it might not ever make the obvious play of inviting UConn at a reduced 20 million share for five years...and Fox may be betting on this. So we may have to hope/wait for number 2...which could get Fox/Big 12 and ESPN/ACC both off of their asses so as not to give Apple a foothold in college sports that includes a brand like UConn (here bball would matter).

Unless 1 or 2 happen, Fox has UConn on the cheap...and UConn gives the Big East its value. No need to move UConn anywhere.

These networks are currently pulling all the strings.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Call me crazy, but I think the Internet is here to stay. But if you think linear is the future, you should call Bob Iger. He would definitely offer you a deal for ESPN. Maybe you know better than he does about the future of sports programming.

So you know better than every major professional sports league and power athletic conference in America who prioritize their games being on linear?

Please setup sometime with Roger Godell and Adam silver and present your findings.

 

[yuckformak]

This. The only way UConn gets into the Big 12 is if 1) Fox gets worried they are going to lose UConn inventory to ESPN via the ACC; or 2) Fox gets worried they are going to lose UConn inventory to Apple via a contract with the Big East.

The combination of ESPN and the ACC is such a cluster that it might not ever make the obvious play of inviting UConn at a reduced 20 million share for five years...and Fox may be betting on this. So we may have to hope/wait for number 2...which could get Fox/Big 12 and ESPN/ACC both off of their asses so as not to give Apple a foothold in college sports that includes a brand like UConn (here bball would matter).

Unless 1 or 2 happen, Fox has UConn on the cheap...and UConn gives the Big East its value. No need to move UConn anywhere.

These networks are currently pulling all the strings.

So the best thing for UConn is for the BE to have a new media partner for the next contract?

 

[ZooCougar]

Yeah, who would want to be in business with Apple?

Everyone. But your product will be hidden on their platform and everyone else will br watching the MWC on a network.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

So you know better than every major professional sports league and power athletic conference in America who prioritize their games being on linear?

Please setup sometime with Roger Godell and Adam silver and present your findings.

That is not what just happened. What did happen is a few conferences scrambled to max out the last big linear contracts and expand using someone else’s money.

The transfer portal and NIL are spreading talent out, and the major conferences don’t like that.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

https://www.axios.com/pro/media-deals/2023/06/01/nba-tv-rights-deal-disney-amazon-youtube

As for Goodell and Silver, I think they already know about streaming.

 

[huskymedic]

Bastion of journalism:

 

[Slasher]

The Pac-9 (8) had no shot of hitting 1.7MM subscriptions and they wanted linear exposure. I think it's pretty simple. When you consider the MLS has under 1MM subscribers with 29 teams in major cities (and even a spike due to Messi) they are nowhere near 1.7MM. And they have a lot of free subscribers due to T-Mobile.

Let's assume they expanded to 12 (and Arizona stayed -- but they were already voted into the Big 12 by then - but let's just assume that.) Pac-9 adds SMU, San Diego State and UNLV. So 1.7MM / 12 = 142,000 subscribers per school on average. Just think about that for a second. SMU averages 20,000 fans for football and <7k for basketball. And remember this is subscribers not total people (a family of four only needs 1 subscription.) Let's say optimistically their fanbase is 80,000 strong. That converts to MAYBE 40,000 subs (people willing to buy apple+ PLUS the additional fee for Pac 12 content.)

Even if you assume the strong brands in the Pac 12 could get those 150k subscribers (Arizona, Washington, Oregon) there's no shot the other 9 with apathetic fanbases were going to cover the rest. No one cares about Cal, SMU, UNLV and San Diego St. OSU/WSU have passionate fans there's just enough of them.

 

[UConnJim]

The Pac-9 (8) had no shot of hitting 1.7MM subscriptions and they wanted linear exposure. I think it's pretty simple. When you consider the MLS has under 1MM subscribers with 29 teams in major cities (and even a spike due to Messi) they are nowhere near 1.7MM. And they have a lot of free subscribers due to T-Mobile.

Let's assume they expanded to 12 (and Arizona stayed -- but they were already voted into the Big 12 by then - but let's just assume that.) Pac-9 adds SMU, San Diego State and UNLV. So 1.7MM / 12 = 142,000 subscribers per school on average. Just think about that for a second. SMU averages 20,000 fans for football and <7k for basketball. And remember this is subscribers not total people (a family of four only needs 1 subscription.) Let's say optimistically their fanbase is 80,000 strong. That converts to MAYBE 40,000 subs (people willing to buy apple+ PLUS the additional fee for Pac 12 content.)

Even if you assume the strong brands in the Pac 12 could get those 150k subscribers (Arizona, Washington, Oregon) there's no shot the other 9 with apathetic fanbases were going to cover the rest. No one cares about Cal, SMU, UNLV and San Diego St. OSU/WSU have passionate fans there's just enough of them.

If the Pac had no ability to hit 1.7 million subscribers, those schools are in a world of hurt when college sports goes streaming. They are just confirming they don't have the value to justify large TV payouts.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Cable could lose 10 million customers this year. Long live cable!!!

 

[ConnHuskBask]

That is not what just happened. What did happen is a few conferences scrambled to max out the last big linear contracts and expand using someone else’s money.

The transfer portal and NIL are spreading talent out, and the major conferences don’t like that.

They are squeezing out the last pennies from linear TV - agreed.

Where I differ in opinion is that Apple, Amazon, etc are a pot of gold under the rainbow.

 

[ZooCougar]

Athletic reporting $25/school plus incentives to take it to as high as $50/school. Can’t find a link on my phone.

Turning that deal down by the PAC 12 will go down in history as one of the stupidest decisions by any sports league.

I remember what the catch is now.

People would have to pay for two subscriptions. They would be lucky to get a million subscribers.

If the PAC 12 came with the base subscription then it would be better. Actually even attractive.

 

[ZooCougar]

Call me crazy, but I think the Internet is here to stay. But if you think linear is the future, you should call Bob Iger. He would definitely offer you a deal for ESPN. Maybe you know better than he does about the future of sports programming.

You want to have a contract with linear because linear is on YouTube Tv and Hulu and all those other streaming services that are replacing cable.

That’s what streaming will be. If you hide your product behind two firewalls then you are limiting your audience.

 

[ZooCougar]

If the Pac had no ability to hit 1.7 million subscribers, those schools are in a world of hurt when college sports goes streaming. They are just confirming they don't have the value to justify large TV payouts.

Everyone is screwed if you are behind two paywalls.

 

[noeynox]

Everyone is screwed if you are behind two paywalls.

Apple needs to come out with service like YouTubeTV. I had Playstation Vue. They should have copped that from Sony. YTTV is a rip off of Vue.

 

[Rico444]

Cable could lose 10 million customers this year. Long live cable!!!

Many of those are going to Youtube TV, Hulu with Live TV, Fubo, etc. and those services get all of the sports channels that come with linear. Sports fans don't cancel their cable and replace it with just Netflix, they still have access to the major sports channels.

 

[Rico444]

Apple needs to come out with service like YouTubeTV. I had Playstation Vue. They should have copped that from Sony. YTTV is a rip off of Vue.

This is actually a great idea. If you could sign up for Apple to get you live TV and also the Pac-12 games as part of the monthly subscription, it would probably do much better than forcing someone to have multiple subscriptions.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Many of those are going to Youtube TV, Hulu with Live TV, Fubo, etc. and those services get all of the sports channels that come with linear. Sports fans don't cancel their cable and replace it with just Netflix, they still have access to the major sports channels.

Fun fact: those services are mostly unbundled so you need TWO subscriptions to watch ESPN.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

 

[nelsonmuntz]

They will need to get used to it.

 

[noeynox]

Those presidents will be long gone before "linear TV". Guess they feel they have to look out for the immediate future however short sighted it may be.

 

[Punkbo]

I agree with the premise that it’s like selling candy bars for Little League at this stage of its development. However, Apple would have to sell $250-300M of candy bars to justify deals with the larger conferences. They would only need to sell $5-10M of candy bars to make it interesting for UConn football.

 

[noeynox]

Fun fact: those services are mostly unbundled so you need TWO subscriptions to watch ESPN.

How do you figure this? ESPN is standard on YTTV.