Our ‘Floor and Ceiling’ in 2022

[KembaKek]

Full Floor and Ceiling prediction per game:

Utah State:
Floor: UConn Loses by 50
Ceiling: UConn Wins by <=3

CCSU:
Floor: UConn Wins by 1-3 points
Ceiling: UConn wins by 40

Syracuse:
Floor: UConn loses by 30
Ceiling: UConn wins by 2 scores

Michigan:
Floor: UConn loses by 70
Ceiling: UConn loses by 2 scores

NCSU:
Floor: UConn loses by 70
Ceiling: UConn loses by 1-2 scores

Fresno State:
Floor: UConn loses by 50
Ceiling: UConn wins by 1 score

FIU:
Floor: UConn loses by 2 scores. FIU is supposed to be very bad but if we believe that UConn can have some tremendous turnaround, we should assume the same for any other bad team making a fresh start.
Ceiling: UConn wins by 3 scores (If FIU is terrible)

Ball State

Floor: UConn loses by 30
Ceiling: UConn wins by 2 scores (Ball St as a team is a tossup this year)


I'm tired. Remind me to finish this tomorrow.

 

[RSTuthill]

This is silly. Let's talk about QB's again.

 

[History Geek]

…I'm tired. Remind me to finish this tomorrow.

Don’t forget to finish this.

 

[RedStickHusky]

Ouch! Probably right but I’m still holding out for better. If I could see a high ceiling during the Diaco years (self described Diacoholic), then I can sure see it with the real deal, JM.

I was a diacolyte for a hot minute myself. Until he designated me a non-key diacolyte.

 

[RedStickHusky]

A successful season in college football is post-season play. Quit lowering the bar for this program.

Not lowering the bar, just trying to determine if there's enough room between the ceiling and the bar to add a second floor.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

Zero chance we get anywhere near 5 wins and 12 losses this year.

Lol, I was just going to say my guess is an 0-12 floor and a 12-0 ceiling.

 

[HuskiesFan1014]

I absolutely hate this post. It's replacing some of the wind in my sails with reality, and I don't want reality to play any part in my stereotypical pre-season hype.

 

[RedStickHusky]

I absolutely hate this post. It's replacing some of the wind in my sails with reality, and I don't want reality to play any part in my stereotypical pre-season hype.

12 chances to go 1 and 0, maybe the only thing red pants ever got eight

 

[KingLurk]

If I had to write a narrative on the best case for this season I'd do this:
Utah State - score some points... got shut out in the opener last year - imagine it turns into a track meet and UConn loses by a couple scores but it's a game in the 30s-40s... not a lot to nothing.
Central - game is over by halftime... sign me up for a non-competitive game vs. an FCS school (granted, it's been awhile since they played an FCS school that wasn't in the top of FCS).
Syracuse - Winning this game is not likely but most possible of any P5 - let's just say they get lucky at home and Syracuse has no pass defense UConn is 2-1.
Michigan - If UConn has the ball within a score at any point in the second half, that's a good outcome. Really think it will look a lot like first trip to Ann Arbor... 2-2 through the first 4 is not bad.
NC State - Second very tough road game in a row. They are going to lose... just don't get blown out.
Fresno State - Another definite loss but there's a benchmark against what happened last year which will be a good measure of where UConn is - also west coast teams don't typically travel well this far east. If any of the Michigan/NC State or Fresno games are close in second half it's a plus. This puts them at 2-4.
FIU - take care of business vs. a bad team on the road and snap the losing streak.. winnable game... doesn't matter if it's ugly, just win.
Ball State - more difficult than the week before, but let's say they have the momentum and, again, keep it close win late. I don't expect this as a win at all, but we are saying "best case scenario".. UConn has the athletes at the skill positions to score points against a middle-of-the-pack MAC team.
BC - Off a bye week and with some momentum returning home. BC has some really good skill at the offensive positions but a couple of key injuries turns BC from a 9-10 win team to a 6-7 win team. Best case here is competitive game.
UMass - gotta win this one after last year. Hopefully the whole team isn't injured and the coaches don't all have covid. Convincing (10 points or more) win.
Liberty - Liberty won't be as good as last year. I expect a bit of battle here but a loss. If there is one game which could surprise me, it's this one, but I'm thinking this is a very likely loss. Again, keep it close. Don't get on the wrong side of a losing track meet score.
Army - Army will be working out their offense for their entire season (the Navy game) coming up the following week. I don't think they will look ahead... another good "where are we" game... i'm counting it as a loss.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

If I had to write a narrative on the best case for this season I'd do this:
Utah State - score some points... got shut out in the opener last year - imagine it turns into a track meet and UConn loses by a couple scores but it's a game in the 30s-40s... not a lot to nothing.
Central - game is over by halftime... sign me up for a non-competitive game vs. an FCS school (granted, it's been awhile since they played an FCS school that wasn't in the top of FCS).
Syracuse - Winning this game is not likely but most possible of any P5 - let's just say they get lucky at home and Syracuse has no pass defense UConn is 2-1.
Michigan - If UConn has the ball within a score at any point in the second half, that's a good outcome. Really think it will look a lot like first trip to Ann Arbor... 2-2 through the first 4 is not bad.
NC State - Second very tough road game in a row. They are going to lose... just don't get blown out.
Fresno State - Another definite loss but there's a benchmark against what happened last year which will be a good measure of where UConn is - also west coast teams don't typically travel well this far east. If any of the Michigan/NC State or Fresno games are close in second half it's a plus. This puts them at 2-4.
FIU - take care of business vs. a bad team on the road and snap the losing streak.. winnable game... doesn't matter if it's ugly, just win.
Ball State - more difficult than the week before, but let's say they have the momentum and, again, keep it close win late. I don't expect this as a win at all, but we are saying "best case scenario".. UConn has the athletes at the skill positions to score points against a middle-of-the-pack MAC team.
BC - Off a bye week and with some momentum returning home. BC has some really good skill at the offensive positions but a couple of key injuries turns BC from a 9-10 win team to a 6-7 win team. Best case here is competitive game.
UMass - gotta win this one after last year. Hopefully the whole team isn't injured and the coaches don't all have covid. Convincing (10 points or more) win.
Liberty - Liberty won't be as good as last year. I expect a bit of battle here but a loss. If there is one game which could surprise me, it's this one, but I'm thinking this is a very likely loss. Again, keep it close. Don't get on the wrong side of a losing track meet score.
Army - Army will be working out their offense for their entire season (the Navy game) coming up the following week. I don't think they will look ahead... another good "where are we" game... i'm counting it as a loss.

Mora is teaching the Uconn kids how to create turnovers, strip the ball, how to get downfield on kicks and punts. His team is going to need some TO’s to pull out some of these victories, and with luck they will. Recruiting talented kids will be a slow but should show some steady improvement.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

Floor = 2
Ceiling = 4

 

[McLovin]

I think 1 is fair on the downside. While I’m certainly not expecting it, a 6 win season is not off the table with this schedule imo

 

[Woof 101]

A successful season in college football is post-season play. Quit lowering the bar for this program.

NO ATTACK, but do realize the bar has been raised for this program to play post season. With no conference bowl tie in and a strength of schedule of 129 out of 130 it would probably take 8 wins to see post season.
As usual I will be at every home game this year and as always hope for more but have to keep expectations reasonable. A couple of the wins would most likely have to be over Michigan, NC State or BC to see post season play.

Again @weyuo no attack just a different perspective of reality. Three bad hires has depleted the fan base and their hopes. Some of those remaining and are optimistic / realistic and not lowering the bar, just life long fans that never give up. And hoping for the good times again with a full Dog House vs big dog opponents.

 

[huskymedic]

With no conference bowl tie in and a strength of schedule of 129 out of 130 it would probably take 8 wins to see post season.

Depends on what format you are using and from where:

47 out of 131 here (NCAA/CFB):

College football strength of schedule: 2022 Win/Loss method

A look at college football strength of schedule for the 2022 season using the win/loss method, which lists Navy with the toughest schedule.

fbschedules.com

72 in the top 100 here:

2022 college football: FBS preseason strength of schedule top 100 rankings

2022 college football: FBS preseason strength of schedule top 100 rankings

volswire.usatoday.com

78 out of 131 here:

NCAAF Strength-of-Schedule Rankings

See the 2023 college football strength-of-schedule rankings, based on last year's efficiency, returning production, incoming transfers, and more.

www.sportsbettingdime.com

… and yes, 128 out of 131 here:

NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings

NCAA College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings from TeamRankings.com, your source for NCAAF computer power rankings.

www.teamrankings.com

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Floor - 1 win over CCSU.
Ceiling - 4 wins, CCSU, UMass, Ball, FIU

 

[RedStickHusky]

Floor - 1 win over CCSU.
Ceiling - 4 wins, CCSU, UMass, Ball, FIU

Not gonna lie, 4 W's would feel like an uptick.

 

[ZooCougar]

NO ATTACK, but do realize the bar has been raised for this program to play post season. With no conference bowl tie in and a strength of schedule of 129 out of 130 it would probably take 8 wins to see post season.
As usual I will be at every home game this year and as always hope for more but have to keep expectations reasonable. A couple of the wins would most likely have to be over Michigan, NC State or BC to see post season play.

Again @weyuo no attack just a different perspective of reality. Three bad hires has depleted the fan base and their hopes. Some of those remaining and are optimistic / realistic and not lowering the bar, just life long fans that never give up. And hoping for the good times again with a full Dog House vs big dog opponents.

129 out of 130? Where did you get that? Just by eyeballing the schedule you should know that is total BS.

 

[ZooCougar]

Oh Contraire. Get your foot off the brakes and the 1 win is realistic mindset. All teams reload. None have the increase in talent and coaching from HCRE2.0 and his "the portal is the boogieman" mindset.

Where did I say the portal was a boogeyman? To reload implies that we were at one point loaded.

This team was a needle pointing at zero going the wrong direction and you think one season in the portal is going to get us to 6 wins?

 

[F101Voodoo]

As a UCONN fan since 1966 I want to be optimistic but age has given me the “gift” of realism. A 5 win reason would be good for a bounce back year. A 6 win season would be great. Hell as a fan I would love an 7 to 8 win season but it is relative. We have lived in the sub basement the last few years so getting above the 5th floor will be GREAT,,,,,

PS. Actually a minor miracle , who am I kidding!,