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North Carolina (7-1)
#12 in KenPom
#12 in KenPom
This year’s stat highlights:
5th in Offensive efficiency
- 16th in FTA/FGA; 29th w/ a 77.4 FT%
- 33rd in turnover prevention
- 34th in offensive tempo
- 70th in offensive rebounding rate
- 90th w/ a 36.0 3P%, but just 235th in 3PA/FGA (35.1%)
- 152nd w/ a 51.3 2P%
- 166th in A/FGM (166th)
36th in Defensive efficiency
- 24th in A/FGM prevention (39.9%)
- 44th in FTA/FGA prevention
- 51st in defensive rebounding rate
- 69th in non steal/block turnover rate
- 75th in block rate
- 116th in opp. 2P% (47.8%)
- 171st in opp. 3P% (32.7%) and just 247th in 3PA/FGA prevention (39.4%)
- 293rd in steal rate
- 306th in defensive tempo (18.1 seconds per opp. possession)
Results from key games (first two games neutral)
- OT-L to Villanova- 81-83 (KP 33)
- W over Arkansas - 87-72 (KP 46)
- W over Tennessee - 100-92 (KP 10)
- W over Florida State - 78-70 (KP 72)
PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:
Elliot Cadeau 6’1 180 freshman
- 7.1p, 1.6r, 4.0a, 1.3 TO, 47.1 2P%, 27.3 3P%, 80% FGAs from 2, 3.6 FTA, 55.2 FT%,
RJ Davis 6’0 180 senior
- 20.4p, 3.1r, 2.9a, 1.6 TO, 51.5 2P%, 34.5 3P%, ~½ shots from 3, 4.6 FTA, 94.6 FT%
Cormac Ryan 6’5 195 grad transfer (Notre Dame)
- 11.0p, 3.3r, 2.0a, 1.4 TO, 40.9 2P%, 29.3 3P%, 2/3rd FGAs from 3, 3.6 FTA, 92.0 FT%, 1.1s
Harrison Ingram 6’7 235 junior transfer (Stanford)
- 14.5p, 6.8r, 2.3a, 1.4 TO, 48.9 2P%, 43.2 3P%, ~½ shots from 3, 4.3 FTA, 64.7 FT%, 1.4s
Armando Bacot 6’11 240 fifth-year returnee
- 16.3p, 11.8p, 1.0a, 1.0 TO, 1.8b, 54.3 2P%, 3 3PAs, 5.8 FTA, 84.8 FT%
After beating Marquette, Baylor, UCLA, Saint Peter’s and Duke, North Carolina leaders RJ Davis and Armando Bacot were just one win away from the 2022 National Championship after Kansas’ dominant second half effort.
Leading that game 40-to-25 entering the half, the sting of that loss has got to be a huge reason why the two veterans are still at Chapel Hill for their fourth and fifth seasons, respectively.
Following Caleb Love’s transfer to Arizona, Davis and Bacot have fully established themselves as two of the best players in the ACC.
Fresh off limiting Kansas’ Hunter Dickinson to just 15 points, Donovan Clingan now faces the task to defend Bacot, who, like Dickinson, is one of the best bigs in the nation. A double-double machine, Bacot’s best feature is his exceptional positioning that allows him to establish ground on offense and secure rebounds on both ends. He is arguably the best rebounder in the game.
After a hot start to the season, Bacot has cooled off a bit, averaging just 12.2 points-per-game over the last five games, which included single-digit scoring efforts against Villanova and Arkansas. To keep Bacot from getting into a groove, expect Hurley and the staff to defend Bacot in a variety of looks, including double-teams, to throw off his rhythm.
Similar to Kansas’ Dajuan Harris, RJ Davis is one of the most poised guards in the nation. A smart, crafty and fearless combo guard, replacing Love with a pass-first true point guard like Elliot Cadeau has helped Davis simplify his offensive game and assert him into the top scoring option for the Tar Heels. While an incredible offensive weapon, Davis is an average-at-best defender, so one can only salivate over whichever guard gets Davis’ assignment, be it Spencer, Newton or Ball. Honestly, if I were Hubert Davis, I’d put RJ Davis on Solomon Ball.
Speaking of Cadeau, he is an exceptionally poised and smart reclass freshman point guard who is happily the fifth option in the starting lineup. Surrounded by scorers and three other playmakers, Cadeau can fade into the background by design, but he can dish and attack the rim, if needed. While Caleb Love was an electric talent, his woeful inefficiency and lack of defense made him often a headache in Chapel Hill, so a safer guard like Cadeau fits this team really well.
Last year, the Tar Heels faced questions about their defense, intensity and overall leadership, so the transfer pickups of Harrison Ingram (Stanford) and Cormac Ryan (Notre Dame) have added an influx of grit and intensity on the defensive end, especially with longtime defensive whiz Leaky Black graduating.
Ingram has fit perfectly with the Tar Heels, replacing Love as the team’s third scoring option while vastly exceeding Love in physicality, size and defense. Not known for his athleticism, Ingram is a versatile two-way power forward who doesn’t really have any holes in his offensive game. He was just a 31.6 3P% shooter at Stanford but so far has shot a remarkable 43.2% this season. Thanks to his size and versatility, he splits his time between starting at the power forward spot or small forward spot along with Louisville transfer Jae’Lyn Withers off the bench for a bigger lineup.
Similar to Ingram, Cormac Ryan is a high-intensity, two-way versatile offensive weapon who is best described as a combo guard who wants to defend the opponent’s best guard. At Notre Dame, he was more of a three-level scorer, but so far at North Carolina, he is used more as a corner-three weapon as a spacer, especially as a frequent recipient of passes from Davis post-penetration.
In summary, with increased offensive versatility and efficiency along with the influx of defensive intensity, this season’s starting lineup is better than last year’s. Everyone, save Bacot, is comfortable handling the ball and honestly, the team looks better without Caleb Love. After a slower pace last year, UNC excels when they play in transition – they always run after turnovers caused and defensive rebounds.
Relying heavily on their starting lineup (just 29.2% of the team’s minutes comes off the bench, which is 232nd in the NCAA), Coach Davis tends to mix and match his bench rotations, depending on the situation.
Sophomore guard Seth Trimble is the first guard off the bench and is best known for his perimeter defense. At 6’3 195, he’s got the strength to play up in the 3-guard position in smaller lineups, but mostly plays the 2-guard when Cadeau is on the bench, leaving Davis to take over point-guard duties. He is the most regularly used bench piece.
Louisville transfer Jae’lyn Withers is an athletic power forward who can score in a variety of ways and is most effective in transition. However, in half-court situations, he is one of the lower usage players on the court. In limited minutes, backup big Jalen Washington is a solid rebounder and rim protector thanks to his 7’4 wingspan and he is also not afraid to let it fly from the perimeter. A career 36.0 3P% shooter, Brown grad transfer Paxson Wojcik shares a lot of similarities to Cormac Ryan in terms of his two-way versatility. After starting the first three games, Wojcik’s playing time has sharply decreased, playing seven minutes across the last two games. So far, freshman forward Zayden High gets minutes when other forwards are in foul trouble.
While defense isn’t their strength, I was impressed with how their defensive intensity helped spark a come-from-behind victory against Florida State. The Seminoles were the better team for the first thirty minutes, but UNC’s aggressive press late in the game sparked a 21-0 run that lasted just under five minutes, which is pretty absurd, if you think about it.
Overall, North Carolina is a very talented offensive team who is deadly in transition, however, the Tar Heels have yet to play against a center like Clingan and a point guard with Newton’s size and ability. UConn should be heavily favored as collectively they are stronger defensively and in rebounding. Also, UNC’s clear defensive weakness is their perimeter defense, especially since that is not the strength of Davis/Cadeau, both undersized guards, so UConn has the weapons to attack on the perimeter.
Should be another good one!
Your in-depth scouting reports are required reading for each and every game. Watching the games with this added knowledge you have supplied makes them that much more enjoyable. Thanks!
