nelsonmuntz
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- Aug 27, 2011
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I won't do complete write ups for the NNBE schools because other than Boise and Houston, I have only seen them 1 or 2 times last year, for maybe a half or so.
Boise State
We all know there were huge losses. Kellen Moore was a surgeon, and will be missed. Doug Martin had a good year at RB. That said, recruiting has been dramatically upgraded the last 3-4 years. There are several choices at QB, and Harper is a good RB if he can stay healthy.
While the D only technically returns 2 starters, there are a lot of guys coming back that got significant playing time. The drop off on D won't be as bad as expected.
The MWC looks to be up a bit this year, and BYU, at Southern Miss and at Michigan State on on the non-conference schedule. Nevada looks good, as does Fresno. Petersen is one of the best coaches out there, so I think he will steal a game or two and get Boise to 10.
10-2 (7-1)
Central Florida
Gabbert was a highly ranked recruit and good be a very good QB. RB corps is stronger with Miami recruit Johnson added to both top returnees. OLine and WR corps mostly intact. A good offense gets better because I thought QB Godfrey was the weak link last year and there is lots of quality competition for his spot.
Defense has been excellent for years, and returns almost everyone, with several significant additions.
UCF did a puzzling thing when they didn't appeal their NCAA penalties. This team is a dark horse contender for a BCS bid that now won't compete in the postseason. UCF has a tendency to lose games it shouldn't, so i won't predict them to go undefeated in CUSA. They get USM at home, and don't play Houston.
10-2 (7-1)
Houston
Houston had hit it out of the park back to back at QB with Kolb and Keenum. I don't expect Piland to be as good, but I expect he will be productive. Charles Sims (1st team CUSA) returns at RB, as does most of the line. The offense will be very good, although meeting last year's standards will be tough.
Sumlin's defenses were pretty bad, and really lead me to question his coaching. Last year there was a marked improvement on D, and that should continue with most of the starters back.
I don't like to see ST coaches promoted to HC. Bill Cowher is the only success story that I can think of in this vein. Levine says all the right things and he is crushing it on the recruiting trail right now, but Houston has had sophisticated systems for almost a decade, and Levine is taking over the reins. The schedule is friendly, because CUSA looks pretty bad this year and @ UCLA and La Tech are the only challenging non-conference games.
9-3 (6-2)
Memphis
Offense was terrible last season. This team was not competitive for the most part. Both the running game (84 ypg) and passing game (190 ypg) were anemic despite an easy schedule. They lose their starting QB, but get most of the offensive back. A major overhaul and upgrade is necessary.
The Defense was atrocious last year, surrendering almost 500 ypg (491 to be exact). It held 1 FBS team, Tulane, under 20 points, and all but 3 of the BFS teams on its shedule scored over 30 points. Arkansas State won 47-3. In most games, the opponent could name its score.
The schedule would be manageable for even a middle of the road CUSA team, with only @ Duke for BCS opponents. But Memphis lost to MTSU and Ark. State last year, and there is no evidence they will be much better. Memphis will lose almost every game it plays and most will be blowouts.
2-10 (1-7)
San Diego State
Initial reaction was losing Lindley and Hillman would be disastrous, but Katz from Oregon State will be QB and there are 2 RB's that were productive last year. Some holes from a line that performed great last year.
Defense slipped a bit, which is surprising given that Rocky Long is one of the most innovative and important defensive coaches of the last 15 years. Decent returning talent and I expect overall improvement.
Closed the year with a terrible and puzzling loss to Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl. Long is a good coach that assembles very good defense. I expect another one.
8-4 (5-3)
SMU
Garrett Gilbert from Texas should be a big upgrade over McDermott, who I thought kind of sucked. Despite Gilbert showing up, there will be a step back on offense. The entire offensive line will be new, with only 3 guys even having meaningful playing experience. Jones hasn't gone the JUCO route like he used to at Hawaii, so there are going to be a lot of guys taking the field for the first time this season.
Ironically, Jones' SMU teams have relied on defense when they have been good. Last year's team (340 yds against, 3.3 ypc, 33 sacks) was very good, and dominated Pitt in the bowl game.
Last year had the makings of a break out year, with early wins over TCU and UCF, and then they got blown out by USM and Tulsa and fell back to the pack. Tough non-conference schedule with @ Baylor, Texas A&M and TCU, and UCF and USM from the east. I think the defense could be very good, so I think they upset at least 1 of the Big 12 schools on the schedule, and do well in the league.
7-5 (5-3)
Boise State
We all know there were huge losses. Kellen Moore was a surgeon, and will be missed. Doug Martin had a good year at RB. That said, recruiting has been dramatically upgraded the last 3-4 years. There are several choices at QB, and Harper is a good RB if he can stay healthy.
While the D only technically returns 2 starters, there are a lot of guys coming back that got significant playing time. The drop off on D won't be as bad as expected.
The MWC looks to be up a bit this year, and BYU, at Southern Miss and at Michigan State on on the non-conference schedule. Nevada looks good, as does Fresno. Petersen is one of the best coaches out there, so I think he will steal a game or two and get Boise to 10.
10-2 (7-1)
Central Florida
Gabbert was a highly ranked recruit and good be a very good QB. RB corps is stronger with Miami recruit Johnson added to both top returnees. OLine and WR corps mostly intact. A good offense gets better because I thought QB Godfrey was the weak link last year and there is lots of quality competition for his spot.
Defense has been excellent for years, and returns almost everyone, with several significant additions.
UCF did a puzzling thing when they didn't appeal their NCAA penalties. This team is a dark horse contender for a BCS bid that now won't compete in the postseason. UCF has a tendency to lose games it shouldn't, so i won't predict them to go undefeated in CUSA. They get USM at home, and don't play Houston.
10-2 (7-1)
Houston
Houston had hit it out of the park back to back at QB with Kolb and Keenum. I don't expect Piland to be as good, but I expect he will be productive. Charles Sims (1st team CUSA) returns at RB, as does most of the line. The offense will be very good, although meeting last year's standards will be tough.
Sumlin's defenses were pretty bad, and really lead me to question his coaching. Last year there was a marked improvement on D, and that should continue with most of the starters back.
I don't like to see ST coaches promoted to HC. Bill Cowher is the only success story that I can think of in this vein. Levine says all the right things and he is crushing it on the recruiting trail right now, but Houston has had sophisticated systems for almost a decade, and Levine is taking over the reins. The schedule is friendly, because CUSA looks pretty bad this year and @ UCLA and La Tech are the only challenging non-conference games.
9-3 (6-2)
Memphis
Offense was terrible last season. This team was not competitive for the most part. Both the running game (84 ypg) and passing game (190 ypg) were anemic despite an easy schedule. They lose their starting QB, but get most of the offensive back. A major overhaul and upgrade is necessary.
The Defense was atrocious last year, surrendering almost 500 ypg (491 to be exact). It held 1 FBS team, Tulane, under 20 points, and all but 3 of the BFS teams on its shedule scored over 30 points. Arkansas State won 47-3. In most games, the opponent could name its score.
The schedule would be manageable for even a middle of the road CUSA team, with only @ Duke for BCS opponents. But Memphis lost to MTSU and Ark. State last year, and there is no evidence they will be much better. Memphis will lose almost every game it plays and most will be blowouts.
2-10 (1-7)
San Diego State
Initial reaction was losing Lindley and Hillman would be disastrous, but Katz from Oregon State will be QB and there are 2 RB's that were productive last year. Some holes from a line that performed great last year.
Defense slipped a bit, which is surprising given that Rocky Long is one of the most innovative and important defensive coaches of the last 15 years. Decent returning talent and I expect overall improvement.
Closed the year with a terrible and puzzling loss to Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl. Long is a good coach that assembles very good defense. I expect another one.
8-4 (5-3)
SMU
Garrett Gilbert from Texas should be a big upgrade over McDermott, who I thought kind of sucked. Despite Gilbert showing up, there will be a step back on offense. The entire offensive line will be new, with only 3 guys even having meaningful playing experience. Jones hasn't gone the JUCO route like he used to at Hawaii, so there are going to be a lot of guys taking the field for the first time this season.
Ironically, Jones' SMU teams have relied on defense when they have been good. Last year's team (340 yds against, 3.3 ypc, 33 sacks) was very good, and dominated Pitt in the bowl game.
Last year had the makings of a break out year, with early wins over TCU and UCF, and then they got blown out by USM and Tulsa and fell back to the pack. Tough non-conference schedule with @ Baylor, Texas A&M and TCU, and UCF and USM from the east. I think the defense could be very good, so I think they upset at least 1 of the Big 12 schools on the schedule, and do well in the league.
7-5 (5-3)
