Newton NBA Potential?

[UCLJ0211]

We talk a lot about how we have multiple NBA prospects on this team- including Castle, Clingan, Karaban, and time will tell about a couple of the other Freshmen.

One name that isn’t mentioned much is Newton. Although he’s not the most athletic player, he’s strong and shifty and can get to his spots. He has great size for a guard at 6’5”. He’s averaging 17/8/5 and shoots the ball pretty well (50/88/33 this year.)

He will likely have a great professional career somewhere, but what are his chances of making an NBA roster if his high level of play continues throughout this year?

What are his limitations if you don’t think he will play in the NBA?

 

[husky429]

Newton isn't going to play in the NBA. Maybe g-league or end of bench minutes.

He's too old and too unathletic for the league. If he was an elite shooter, he'd have a better shot.

Brilliant college player, just not built for the league. Tristen has put in the work and made good decisions for his career. Sometimes you just don't have it in the tanks, and that's okay.

 

[auror]

Newton is currently 7th in KenPom's player of the year algorithm (more or less good team + high usage + good efficiency).

 

[Tenspro2002]

Newton isn't going to play in the NBA. Maybe g-league or end of bench minutes.

He's too old and too unathletic for the league. If he was an elite shooter, he'd have a better shot.

Brilliant college player, just not built for the league. Tristen has put in the work and made good decisions for his career. Sometimes you just don't have it in the tanks, and that's okay.

Exactly this. Newton is close to the ideal college guard and arguably has the greatest gap on the team between college productivity and NBA potential, and that's fine!

I'd much rather have a guy like him than the opposite.

 

[elmcityboy]

was thinking about austin reaves as a potential comp -- bigger, do-everything combo guard-type who was a good-not-great shooter. reaves was also a fifth year guy. he went undrafted and then became a star in his role, partially because he ended up in the right spot on an old, injury-riddled lakers team with a bloated payroll.

i think there's a world where newton plays in the league (he is certainly making a case for himself of late) but a lot of stuff will have to go right.

 

[Son of Robert]

He's certainly working hard to get his shot, his substantial impact being felt in every aspect on the court. Excellent rebounder, led the team last night with11 boards, plus 8-10 from the free throw line, 7-16 FG, 6 assists, 2 steals, and someone said he drew 10 fouls on Indiana. Good stuff here.

 

[tykurez]

If a guy like Max Strus can make a career in the NBA I don’t see why Tristen Newton can’t. He’s a big guard who can defend and draw fouls. He’s a strong finisher and can shoot decently on volume from deep. He also played pretty well in the pre-draft showcase last year so I wouldn’t say he has no shot.

 

[husky429]

If a guy like Max Strus can make a career in the NBA I don’t see why Tristen Newton can’t. He’s a big guard who can defend and draw fouls. He’s a strong finisher and can shoot decently on volume from deep. He also played pretty well in the pre-draft showcase last year so I wouldn’t say he has no shot.

Strus was 2-and-done, not 5 and done. He's also much bigger, and was a better shooter on substantially higher volume in college.

Not sure of a good NBA comp because I don't watch much past the draft.

 

[TheHorde]

TN doesn’t have a high ceiling as an athlete which hurts him with the league. But he has size, a good outside shot, can make free throws, handle, and distribute well, especially if playing the 2. Id think that there would be at least a bench role in the league for him where he could carve out a nice pro career for himself.

 

[Palatine]

He'll get his shot. His three point shooting has to come up a bit. At this point he looks more like a G-League player.

The biggest drawback is his age. He is a late second, undrafted FA at this point. If he leads us to another natty his intangibles will lift the perception of him to NBA teams.

 

[tykurez]

Strus was 2-and-done, not 5 and done. He's also much bigger, and was a better shooter on substantially higher volume in college.

Not sure of a good NBA comp because I don't watch much past the draft.

Strus transferred to DePaul and had to sit out a year, so he actually was a 5 and done. They’re both listed at 6-5 and both around the 200 lbs mark. Similar shooting splits as well … but I think Strus has more hops. He went undrafted and has played his way into a starters role due to his physicality.

 

[NHUConnfan]

Newton may get invited to the G-League, but I suspect he can have a fairly productive career in Europe.

Regarding Strus...he's an anomaly. Most undrafted players are undrafted for a reason and don't make NBA rosters let alone become a significant piece of those rosters. If that's what Newton ends up becoming...awesome. In reality, the shot of that happening is very very slim.

 

[husky429]

Strus transferred to DePaul and had to sit out a year, so he actually was a 5 and done. They’re both listed at 6-5 and both around the 200 lbs mark. Similar shooting splits as well … but I think Strus has more hops. He went undrafted and has played his way into a starters role due to his physicality.

You're right, I forgot about his D2 work.

Regardless, I just don't see Newton as the same level of shooter or even close to it. And at the end of the day, Strus is an anomaly. There are a lot of really talented college guards who don't get a whiff of NBA interest.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

Sample size is still relatively small, but Tristen is shot-selecting and finishing sooooo much better this year inside the 3pt line.

14/22 (64%) so far in 2023-24 vs. last year was only 62/163 (38%).

 

[uchusky32]

Newton isn't going to play in the NBA. Maybe g-league or end of bench minutes.

He's too old and too unathletic for the league. If he was an elite shooter, he'd have a better shot.

Brilliant college player, just not built for the league. Tristen has put in the work and made good decisions for his career. Sometimes you just don't have it in the tanks, and that's okay.

Agreed. He plays with the ball in his hands. That won't be the case in the NBA. He will be positioned on the wing waiting for the kick out.

 

[CL82]

Exactly this. Newton is close to the ideal college guard and arguably has the greatest gap on the team between college productivity and NBA potential, and that's fine!

I'd much rather have a guy like him than the opposite.

I don't disagree with this. Of course, that was Sanogo's narrative last year too and he ended up with a two-way contract, so who knows. Newton will definitely make money playing basketball after his college career. NBA teams will give him a look. He knows what he has to work on.

 

[Palatine]

Last thought. Tristen had some time in the pre-combine. He probably knows exactly what the scout and teams are looking for from him.

 

[Scrutiner]

He's certainly working hard to get his shot, his substantial impact being felt in every aspect on the court. Excellent rebounder, led the team last night with11 boards, plus 8-10 from the free throw line, 7-16 FG, 6 assists, 2 steals, and someone said he drew 10 fouls on Indiana. Good stuff here.

And, from our viewpoint, it looked as if he actually drew about 20 fouls but they weren't calling all the hand jabs, grabs and bumps.
Maybe we're supreme "homers" but it was hard to believe IU got away with all the stuff they were calling on us.

 

[MexicoHusky]

I have yet to watch yesterday's game, but I listened on the radio, watched the highlights and saw his stats from yesterday. It looks like he's improved from last year. A more complete player. I can see the negatives that others claim will keep him out of the league, but I'm not prepared to say he has no shot. He seems to be improving still and if KO can last in the league for a decade I think Newton has a chance.

Newton also has some primary option skills and secondary option skills. Meaning he could park himself in the corner and wait for others to get him open for threes or you could give him the ball and tell him you need to break down your man and get us a bucket. I'm not saying he's the best at breaking down his defender but he's also not horrible at it. He's a versatile player who appears to be still maturing as a player..... so now way would I count him out.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Newton may get invited to the G-League, but I suspect he can have a fairly productive career in Europe.

Regarding Strus...he's an anomaly. Most undrafted players are undrafted for a reason and don't make NBA rosters let alone become a significant piece of those rosters. If that's what Newton ends up becoming...awesome. In reality, the shot of that happening is very very slim.

The question isn't really whether he could carve out a Kevin Ollie like career in the NBA, he's good enough to do that. The question is whether a team would carry him on the bench. The NBA has changed, the guys on the bench are occasionally old NBA vets and former stars, like Blake Griffin, but mostly they are guys teams think might still turn into something more. A guy like Samson Johnson would get an NBA bench spot before Newton. Same with Andre.

Newton would need a perfect situation. A team that needs a stable mature PG who won't ever become a starter and that will choose him over one of the dozens of guys who are similar but spent 8-10 years in the league already.

 

[Connecticut13]

Colin Gilespie is getting playing time with Denver. He's another guy that played 5 years in college and wasn't overly athletic. Different types of players for sure -- Gillespie really refined his three point shot over the years and was lights out his last year. But the point is that it's possible for Tristen. If he can shoot it near 40% this year from deep (and granted, he's at 33% currently), then he'll get some interest.

 

[wingsfan055]

Too slow, and unathletic to be a PG in the NBA. The league is getting faster, bigger, and stronger every year. No plus on any of his skills comps. But, he'll still be able to make $Millions playing overseas.