NCAA Bids/Units/Expectations by Conference

[ScottVib]

It always seems to be en vogue to use the NCAA tournament to compare the conferences so some random stats since the COVID shutdown:

First Total Bids:
32 - Big Ten
28 - Big XII, SEC
22 - ACC
18 - Big East
16 - Mountain West, Pac-12
9 - WCC
8 - American
7 - A-10
5 - Missouri Valley
4 - Everyone but the Ivy League (who sat out 2021)

Total Units Earned: (Each win until you reach the Final Four earns a unit, meaning we already have this year's total units earned)
64 - Big XII, Big Ten
58 - ACC
57 - SEC
47 - Big East
43 - Pac-12
24 - Mountain West
22 - WCC

This of course lends itself to the narratives about the power conference's strength, etc

Units Above Expectation --- So this is the comparison of units earned to the number of units expected based on the conference's seeds. Teams in Play-Ins get 0.5 units expected, as the winner of the play-in games earn units.

Most of the time conferences are pretty close and obviously putting more teams in the tournament puts you more at risk, particularly if you have a lot of high seeds:

+13.5 - ACC
+5.5 - Pac-12 (mostly in 2021)
+5 - C-USA (thanks FAU)
+3 - Ivy, MAAC
+2 - A-10, Big East, Summit, WAC
//// 19 conferences between -1 and +1.5
-2 - WCC
-12.5 - Big Ten (+1 this year; their first positive in the last four)
-13.5 - SEC (-4 this year, have never been above expectations)
-16 - Big XII (-7 this year; Kansas' title run in 2022 is the only time they broke even, every other year they've been at least 4 units (wins) under expectations)

 

[kobebeanbryant]

I am sure the power conferences exert influence on the committee to secure additional bids.

There is likely a desire to appease them to prevent them from breaking loose from the current ncaa owned tournament structure.

This is likely only going to get worse for the non-power conferences.

 

[upstater]

It's crazy that the MWC has 2 less bids than the BE over this span.

16 bids and 24 units? 8 wins? That's it? What more proof do you need that this is a weak conference?

Also, how in the world is a first 4 win on a Tuesday worth more than winning the national championship or a Final 4 game?

The NCAA is absurd and bizarre.

 

[Luna]

does anyone know how the big east splits units among the schools?

 

[FLDawg16]

does anyone know how the big east splits units among the schools?

Evenly

 

[auror]

It always seems to be en vogue to use the NCAA tournament to compare the conferences so some random stats since the COVID shutdown:

First Total Bids:
32 - Big Ten
28 - Big XII, SEC
22 - ACC
18 - Big East
16 - Mountain West, Pac-12
9 - WCC
8 - American
7 - A-10
5 - Missouri Valley
4 - Everyone but the Ivy League (who sat out 2021)

Total Units Earned: (Each win until you reach the Final Four earns a unit, meaning we already have this year's total units earned)
64 - Big XII, Big Ten
58 - ACC
57 - SEC
47 - Big East
43 - Pac-12
24 - Mountain West
22 - WCC

This of course lends itself to the narratives about the power conference's strength, etc

Units Above Expectation --- So this is the comparison of units earned to the number of units expected based on the conference's seeds. Teams in Play-Ins get 0.5 units expected, as the winner of the play-in games earn units.

Most of the time conferences are pretty close and obviously putting more teams in the tournament puts you more at risk, particularly if you have a lot of high seeds:

+13.5 - ACC
+5.5 - Pac-12 (mostly in 2021)
+5 - C-USA (thanks FAU)
+3 - Ivy, MAAC
+2 - A-10, Big East, Summit, WAC
//// 19 conferences between -1 and +1.5
-2 - WCC
-12.5 - Big Ten (+1 this year; their first positive in the last four)
-13.5 - SEC (-4 this year, have never been above expectations)
-16 - Big XII (-7 this year; Kansas' title run in 2022 is the only time they broke even, every other year they've been at least 4 units (wins) under expectations)

It's unclear, but from your wording I'm not sure if you counted the initial units you get for playing in the first game. You don't get a unit per win, you get one per game. So a play in winner is expected 1.5, not 0.5.

 

[Luna]

Evenly

I’m not sure about that.. I couldn’t find anything on what the spilt is.. but a old article I found on the internet said.. schools that earn more ncca units in the big east get a bigger payout

 

[ScottVib]

It's unclear, but from your wording I'm not sure if you counted the initial units you get for playing in the first game. You don't get a unit per win, you get one per game. So a play in winner is expected 1.5, not 0.5.

I computed as one for appearing then one for each game you’re the bigger seed. The play-in winners are the same seed so the expected winner for that is split. A play in participant is expected at 1.5. The winner gets 2 the loser 1.

So the 16 seed full bracket participant is expected to get 1. The playin 1.5. A one seed is expected at 5, a two gets 4, a four 3, an eight 2 and the rest are either 1 or 1.5