Making history instead of chasing it

[alexrgct]

I'm just awake for no good reason and just thinking about the extent to which UConn is in rarified air.

I remember when eight was still greater than seven. That was taken care of in 2013. Some still talk about John Wooden's 10 championships (not especially comparable to Geno's) or Phil Jackson's 11 NBA titles (ridiculous), but the reality is UConn isn't really chasing history anymore so much as making it. Sure, Geno is behind Pat in total victories 1,098-917. He's also down 18-16 in Final Four appearances. Tennessee owns the record for most NCAA tourney wins in a row with 21 (UConn, of course, is sitting at 18 right now). This is really all there is left to chase, but these nice thresholds don't change the fact that a) UConn is in good position to exceed them in time (or possibly by next season in some cases), and b) 10 is already greater than any other tally of NCs any program has achieved.

We're sitting on eight seasons with eight Final Fours and five NCs. We know there's a great season expected in 2015-16, and we know the season to follow looks as auspicious for UConn as anyone else (except perhaps for South Carolina, which will be able to play a number of transfers who are sitting out this upcoming season). In short, we're looking at a full decade that will have been produced by April 2017, from Maya Moore to Katie Lou Samuelson, that dwarfs the already-incredible decades Geno has accomplished. Geno built UConn from 9-18 in 1985 to national champions in 1995. By 2005, Uconn was a dynastic five-time champion program. And a decade later, UConn is so successful it's making its own history.

So, I guess the only question that remains for me is: if the history that's left is a blank slate, and you're basically armed with your own pen, what do you think UConn writes?

 

[meyers7]

but the reality is UConn isn't really chasing history anymore so much as making it.

Nice line.

 

[Bonpland]

183 victories in the next five years seems possible which would put him at 1,100, but NC's are harder to predict.

SC will be loaded for the next few years as will Tennessee, and Muffet will continue to do her usual job with ND. Duke keeps getting great players but their HC is going to have to prove that she knows what to do with them. Baylor is stockpiling height and one more outside scorer could make them hard to beat.

There will probably be a team or two that comes on to surprise everyone during the tournament (Ohio State, Oregon?) and there's always the possibility that a team will come out of nowhere to win it all like Texas A&M did.

We'll have to do something awful not to win this year, but after that, for a while anyway I don't think that we will be the clear favorite. We'll be right there, but we won't look to be a sure thing.

Of course if KLS, Collier, and Dangerfield are all that we hope they are and if Ms. Cox decides to accept the challenge to try to achieve greatness by traveling north to Storrs, then we might see two or three more parades in the next five years.

 

[billnaples]

183 victories in the next five years seems possible which would put him at 1,100, but NC's are harder to predict.

SC will be loaded for the next few years as will Tennessee, and Muffet will continue to do her usual job with ND. Duke keeps getting great players but their HC is going to have to prove that she knows what to do with them. Baylor is stockpiling height and one more outside scorer could make them hard to beat.

There will probably be a team or two that comes on to surprise everyone during the tournament (Ohio State, Oregon?) and there's always the possibility that a team will come out of nowhere to win it all like Texas A&M did.

We'll have to do something awful not to win this year, but after that, for a while anyway I don't think that we will be the clear favorite. We'll be right there, but we won't look to be a sure thing.

Of course if KLS, Collier, and Dangerfield are all that we hope they are and if Ms. Cox decides to accept the challenge to try to achieve greatness by traveling north to Storrs, then we might see two or three more parades in the next five years.

183 in five? Wow. 36+ wins a year. I'd be a lot more optimistic that midway thru the 6th year Geno would hit the number.

Can not argue the prospective competition you identified. All have some good to great history and the talented player pool seems to be growing quite well.

No question you have to miss the world class 3 pt shooter and the awesome shot blocker. But we are returning 4 of the five starters and I think will start Butler with great potential from 6 off the bench. They are still going to make UConn the heavy favorite for #4/#11 as it should be. How this year's trio develop and will next year's class have any surprises that step up big? Only time will answer all of those questions. We'll sit, we'll watch. we'll wait.

 

[Bestiarius]

If my research is correct, Consider this history making run, showing Uconn is a pipeline to a NC ring.
For 28 years in a row, since 1992, (Rebecca's first year) each year's roster, has won, or played with teammates who have won a National Championship during their career.

There are 4 more years during which the streak can be extended. (5 if Morgan stays her 5th year).

Potential future recruits might wish to keep this in mind. Nowhere are the odds better for achieving the ultimate basketball goal.

 

[Kaizen]

Five years from now, probably we are talking NC 14 or 15?

 

[MilfordHusky]

I think there are a few key recruits who will make the difference between a Final Four team in the mix and the single most dominant team. I'm thinking of Lauren Cox and Megan Walker specifically. There may be others. Another unknown is the post-Stewie, post-Moriah era. Is the 2015 group like the 2012 and 1998 groups or more like the 2002 group? Can they dominate on their own, or are they more of a supporting cast? Though we don't really know, I think that Lou, Napheesa, and Crystal are superstars who will thrive under the pressure. Plus, Gabby and Kiah will become stars. Beyond 2019, we need Lauren and/or Megan.

 

[UcMiami]

Interesting question if taken to mean Geno, for Uconn who knows as they will continue long into the future.
For Geno ...
1. I could see him extending the streak of FF appearances into the 10-12 range
2. I could see him extending the NCAA wins streak to at least 29 and possibly to 35.
3. NCs 12 minimum 16 maximum
4. Consecutive NCs maybe 5
5. Total wins - closer to 1200 than 1150

I know he is getting on in years, but he does love what he is doing, and his family doesn't really want him hanging around the house all the time! So I am not sure he retires anytime soon. Coaching is an interesting profession that allows for a good amount of free time, not unlike college teaching - and there is a fair amount of 'delegation' of the boring stuff to others. If he can continue to recruit great people, then even with all the 'stresses' of the job, the excitement and joy will continue to outweigh the other options.

I also think that if USA really pushes for him to return for another 4 year period after Rio he would again accept - not sure they will, but they have gone that route with the men. I think unlike the men, they have more good coaches that really want the job coaching the women's National team. (Sort of like the women's pro players who pretty much never turn down an invitation, where a lot of men beg off.)

 

[meyers7]

183 in five? Wow. 36+ wins a year. I'd be a lot more optimistic that midway thru the 6th year Geno would hit the number.

That's where he's been for the last 10 years.

 

[Bonpland]

That's where he's been for the last 10 years.

Bill I'm with Meyers on this point. I said 183 in five because, as crazy as that number seems, that's what he's done lately (188 in the last five). I don't see us dropping more than two games in any given year, and if we do have another four loss season it's generally compensated for pretty quickly.

 

[billnaples]

Bill I'm with Meyers on this point. I said 183 in five because, as crazy as that number seems, that's what he's done lately (188 in the last five). I don't see us dropping more than two games in any given year, and if we do have another four loss season it's generally compensated for pretty quickly.

Apologies to you and Meyers. Nothing like a leap without looking. I reacted to the number rather than researching it. I did look back the 10 years and it is spot on 360 wins and sadly 23 losses (boy are we spoiled!) for a win pct of .9399. It occurred to me one of the factors that MIGHT influence the totals going forward could be do we stay in the AAC and if so, does it have any kind of growth like the Big East had. And if we move conferences (I am guessing Big 10 or ACC as the more likely) do Duke, Maryland, Penn St. Notre Dame (probably a given) and Stanford and anyone else finally becoming a true top 10 program to give UConn a better run than they collectively have over these last 10 years. I broke down (not much to do with no golf today) the 23 losses. 7 to Notre Dame, surprise to me was 4 times to Rutgers (in a three year frame), 3 for Stanford, 2 each for Baylor, Tennessee, and North Carolina, and 1 each for Duke, LSU, and maybe the oddest of the 23 was to St. John's. Small correction the last five was 182-12, five before that was 178-11.

 

[BroadwayVa]

183 in five? Wow. 36+ wins a year. I'd be a lot more optimistic that midway thru the 6th year Geno would hit the number.

Can not argue the prospective competition you identified. All have some good to great history and the talented player pool seems to be growing quite well.

No question you have to miss the world class 3 pt shooter and the awesome shot blocker. But we are returning 4 of the five starters and I think will start Butler with great potential from 6 off the bench. They are still going to make UConn the heavy favorite for #4/#11 as it should be. How this year's trio develop and will next year's class have any surprises that step up big? Only time will answer all of those questions. We'll sit, we'll watch. we'll wait.

183 in five? Wow. 36+ wins a year. I'd be a lot more optimistic that midway thru the 6th year Geno would hit the number.

Can not argue the prospective competition you identified. All have some good to great history and the talented player pool seems to be growing quite well.

No question you have to miss the world class 3 pt shooter and the awesome shot blocker. But we are returning 4 of the five starters and I think will start Butler with great potential from 6 off the bench. They are still going to make UConn the heavy favorite for #4/#11 as it should be. How this year's trio develop and will next year's class have any surprises that step up big? Only time will answer all of those questions. We'll sit, we'll watch. we'll wait.

183 in five? Wow. 36+ wins a year. I'd be a lot more optimistic that midway thru the 6th year Geno would hit the number.

Can not argue the prospective competition you identified. All have some good to great history and the talented player pool seems to be growing quite well.

No question you have to miss the world class 3 pt shooter and the awesome shot blocker. But we are returning 4 of the five starters and I think will start Butler with great potential from 6 off the bench. They are still going to make UConn the heavy favorite for #4/#11 as it should be. How this year's trio develop and will next year's class have any surprises that step up big? Only time will answer all of those questions. We'll sit, we'll watch. we'll wait.

I like the way you think. I am not a fan of anointing anyone before the game is played.

With the exceptional talent expected to show dividends at ND and USC and Tn --if only 2 of the 3 Newbies this year along with the remaining superstars from Uconn this year, and a bit of help next year---I still believe the XXX factor among the teams mentioned and Uconn is Geno/Christine/Shea/Marissa--what ever they have should be bottled.
Coaches can't do it alone, and talented players need talented coaching to become the best they can be--the edge has to go to Uconn.

 

[Kibitzer]

Please, would one of our stats mavens re-compute the # of consecutive games played since UConn sustained two losses BTB. IIRC, last time for such an epic disaster was at end of 1992 season. The total is in the Cy Young/Cal Ripken immortal level already, with no end in sight.

Please confirm or correct my recollection.

 

[alexrgct]

Kib, on March 17, 1993, UConn lost to Louisville in the first round of the tourney 74-71. It was UConn's second loss in a row. Since then, UConn has played 811 total games over 22 seasons. There have been some losses, but never consecutive. Closest was an OT win over USF in OT in late 2004 when UConn had a loss on the books in the game beforehand. UConn pulled out the W, and the 811 games stand.

 

[billnaples]

Please, would one of our stats mavens re-compute the # of consecutive games played since UConn sustained two losses BTB. IIRC, last time for such an epic disaster was at end of 1992 season. The total is in the Cy Young/Cal Ripken immortal level already, with no end in sight.

Please confirm or correct my recollection.

Recollection is close. According to a guy (I think) who posts in the conversations section of game reports during season UConn is at 804 games without consecutive defeats and it apparently dates back to March of 1993. He also reports that UConn has been ranked in the top 25 for 414 consecutive weeks. 8 years is a long long time..

 

[ed4ourgirls]

In the total wins category we have to remember that there are still three active D1
coaches with more wins than Geno:

Coach . . . Age . . . Wins

Sylvia . . . 63 . . . . 961
Tara . . . . 62 . . . . 953
C.Viv . . . 67 . . . . 952
Geno . . . 61 . . . . .917

It's uncertain how the mess at UNC will affect Sylvia's future, and C.Viv may be nearing
the end of the line in a few more years. It seems to me that Tara VanDerveer will probably
be the toughest for Geno to catch. If Geno averages 5 more wins per year than Tara it will
still take him more than 7 years to catch her. If it's only 4 more wins per year it will take
9 years.

Over the past 10 years Geno has averaged 3.8 wins per year more than Tara.

 

[billnaples]

Recollection is close. According to a guy (I think) who posts in the conversations section of game reports during season UConn is at 804 games without consecutive defeats and it apparently dates back to March of 1993. He also reports that UConn has been ranked in the top 25 for 414 consecutive weeks. 8 years is a long long time..

Went back to a list I had and 804 was in fact too low, 811 is correct.

 

[UcMiami]

In the total wins category we have to remember that there are still three active D1
coaches with more wins than Geno:

Coach . . . Age . . . Wins

Sylvia . . . 63 . . . . 961
Tara . . . . 62 . . . . 953
C.Viv . . . 67 . . . . 952
Geno . . . 61 . . . . .917

It's uncertain how the mess at UNC will affect Sylvia's future, and C.Viv may be nearing
the end of the line in a few more years. It seems to me that Tara VanDerveer will probably
be the toughest for Geno to catch. If Geno averages 5 more wins per year than Tara it will
still take him more than 7 years to catch her. If it's only 4 more wins per year it will take
9 years.

Over the past 10 years Geno has averaged 3.8 wins per year more than Tara.

Good points. However, I would say Tara had a really good run with the O sisters in the last ten years and in a conference that has seldom been very competitive. With no more O sisters, and with a suddenly much more competitive conference, last years difference of 12 wins in Geno's favor may be more indicative of the future.
Geno vs Stringer - last year it was at +15
Geno vs Hatchell - last year it was +12 and this year it may be closer to +20 with all the transfers. I wouldn't be surprised if she falls to third in active coaching wins this coming year even if the NCAA doesn't dock wins from UNC.

 

[Kibitzer]

Thanks to all who set me straight.

To recap, UConn starts the season with:

414 consecutive weeks ranked in top 25,
811 games since experiencing BTB losses,
3 straight NC's,
2 sure AA's (Stewie and MoJet) and
2 possible AA's (Kia and Morgan).​

Only ladies certain to start each game on the bench are CD, Shea, Marisa, and Rosemary.

 

[bramos]

[Only ladies certain to start each game on the bench are CD, Shea, Marisa, and Rosemary.]
Classic...LOL

 

[Suebird10fan]

I really think folks are giving teams like SC and TN too much credit for 2016-17.

In my opinion UConn will have four players in the top 15 in the country next year (Tuck, Nurse, Collier, KLS). I don't see that being the case for any other team. And five through seven (Gabby, Butler, Dangerfield) aren't far behind. You could argue that the top three at SC or ND will be comparable to ours, maybe even slightly better. But four through seven we'll be way better than anyone else. And we have a coach that gets more out of his players than anyone with the possible exception of Muffet McGraw.

It doesn't seem fair that we could lose the #1 and #2 players in WCBB and still be odds-on favorites to win another NC. And it isn't fair. But that doesn't mean it isn't so.

Meantime, the first game of THIS season cannot come soon enough. As a rule my eagerness for the season to begin is directly proportional to how good UConn is expected to be and inversely proportional to the chances of the Red Sox making the playoffs. Needless to say I want the season to start yesterday!