Looking Forward to the Big Dance

[BfromCT]

Now that the Big East tournament is over with the expected results, albeit with considerably more difficulty due to the nose injury to Aaliyah Edwards, we must now think about the NCAA tournament. To my mind, the Huskies, a likely three seed, are a Sweet Sixteen level team. This is due, as we all recognize, to the plethora of injuries suffered. This year’s UConn team probably has the shortest bench of any squad for the past thirty years. Realistically, the team has had a five and one half player rotation for much of the season, although the break out performance of Ice Brady in the Big East tournament gives grounds for optimism. With just one more player, say, Aubrey Griffin, the team’s ceiling would probably be higher.

For the Huskies to hope to win at the round of sixteen and advance, four factors have to fall into place and not necessarily in the order presented. First, the starters must stay out of foul trouble because there is little bench. Second, Paige has to put on Caitlin Clark quality games. She must average around thirty points per game for the team to advance. She was 27+ for the Big East tournament. Third, Edwards, assuming she is 100%, must be able to hit jump shots for that is the only way to move opposing bigs away from the basket and open up the lane. Fourth, the team has to hit its 3-pointers, something that has been lacking for most of the second half of the season, although the squad was on target for the BE championship game. The Huskies will need to drain around ten long shots per game to be competitive against high quality opponents like all those on the 1 and 2 lines of the bracket.

The unknown factor at this time is the seeding. If we believe Charlie Creme, UConn will be a 3 seed in the Portland 3 region. No. 1 is Stanford and no. 2 LSU. If, and it is a big if, LSU is the 2 seed in UConn’s region, the Huskies will have an extremely tough time because the team does not match up well against LSU. We shall see.

 

[Monte]

As we saw in the last few games, their hustle and defense was a big factor. They must keep that spirit going in the tournament.

 

[Longtime fan]

Now that the Big East tournament is over with the expected results, albeit with considerably more difficulty due to the nose injury to Aaliyah Edwards, we must now think about the NCAA tournament. To my mind, the Huskies, a likely three seed, are a Sweet Sixteen level team. This is due, as we all recognize, to the plethora of injuries suffered. This year’s UConn team probably has the shortest bench of any squad for the past thirty years. Realistically, the team has had a five and one half player rotation for much of the season, although the break out performance of Ice Brady in the Big East tournament gives grounds for optimism. With just one more player, say, Aubrey Griffin, the team’s ceiling would probably be higher.

For the Huskies to hope to win at the round of sixteen and advance, four factors have to fall into place and not necessarily in the order presented. First, the starters must stay out of foul trouble because there is little bench. Second, Paige has to put on Caitlin Clark quality games. She must average around thirty points per game for the team to advance. She was 27+ for the Big East tournament. Third, Edwards, assuming she is 100%, must be able to hit jump shots for that is the only way to move opposing bigs away from the basket and open up the lane. Fourth, the team has to hit its 3-pointers, something that has been lacking for most of the second half of the season, although the squad was on target for the BE championship game. The Huskies will need to drain around ten long shots per game to be competitive against high quality opponents like all those on the 1 and 2 lines of the bracket.

The unknown factor at this time is the seeding. If we believe Charlie Creme, UConn will be a 3 seed in the Portland 3 region. No. 1 is Stanford and no. 2 LSU. If, and it is a big if, LSU is the 2 seed in UConn’s region, the Huskies will have an extremely tough time because the team does not match up well against LSU. We shall see.

All true. But it is possible ICE Brady will be an X factor. We have seen her emerge. What if she gets better and better? She can hit from the outside, as well ( even though coach does not like it when she takes jump shots ). And with ICE's improved play, the duo of ICE and Edwards might be more trouble than most teams have anticipated ( which was not true a month earlier ). That combo also gives some bench rest opportunities for KK and ASH ( not likely Nika or Paige will come out once the Big Dance gets serious ).

 

[BBallF]

Now that the Big East tournament is over with the expected results, albeit with considerably more difficulty due to the nose injury to Aaliyah Edwards, we must now think about the NCAA tournament. To my mind, the Huskies, a likely three seed, are a Sweet Sixteen level team. This is due, as we all recognize, to the plethora of injuries suffered. This year’s UConn team probably has the shortest bench of any squad for the past thirty years. Realistically, the team has had a five and one half player rotation for much of the season, although the break out performance of Ice Brady in the Big East tournament gives grounds for optimism. With just one more player, say, Aubrey Griffin, the team’s ceiling would probably be higher.

For the Huskies to hope to win at the round of sixteen and advance, four factors have to fall into place and not necessarily in the order presented. First, the starters must stay out of foul trouble because there is little bench. Second, Paige has to put on Caitlin Clark quality games. She must average around thirty points per game for the team to advance. She was 27+ for the Big East tournament. Third, Edwards, assuming she is 100%, must be able to hit jump shots for that is the only way to move opposing bigs away from the basket and open up the lane. Fourth, the team has to hit its 3-pointers, something that has been lacking for most of the second half of the season, although the squad was on target for the BE championship game. The Huskies will need to drain around ten long shots per game to be competitive against high quality opponents like all those on the 1 and 2 lines of the bracket.

The unknown factor at this time is the seeding. If we believe Charlie Creme, UConn will be a 3 seed in the Portland 3 region. No. 1 is Stanford and no. 2 LSU. If, and it is a big if, LSU is the 2 seed in UConn’s region, the Huskies will have an extremely tough time because the team does not match up well against LSU. We shall see.

I really don't see them going to Portland, I see them in Albany. I think you have several valid points and I would add also that our youth and inexperience at that level is another important factor. On the other hand, and there is always another hand, we have the great player who can take us to places not thought possible and we have been playing really well. The February metamorphosis by Geno came later in the form of a ratcheted down defense and a lot of energy. Plus we have 3 seniors. Honestly, I would be disappointed if we are only a Sweet Sixteen team but I would accept it. I am thinking higher because I saw a real fire these last 3 games and Nika ain't going down without a major, major fight. No way, no how.

 

[my2cents]

Call me crazy but I think this team can go a lot farther than most people expect. Why?
The top teams ae not as strong as in many years. All the top teams ( minus SC) have as many loses as us. They can be beat.
Geno never uses more than 7 players this time of year. Ice playing better and whatever we get from Q, will help.
Our defense is on another level. With 4 guards , we have been swarming our opposition into rushed and turnover prone offenses. Paige as a "free safety" anticipates shots and blocks them. Have we ever seen that from a guard before?
We have two All Americans, AE and Paige.
Paige is the most complete player we have seen in years, and while she is playing we always have a good chance of winning.

 

[BBallF]

Call me crazy but I think this team can go a lot farther than most people expect. Why?
The top teams ae not as strong as in many years. All the top teams ( minus SC) have as many loses as us. They can be beat.
Geno never uses more than 7 players this time of year. Ice playing better and whatever we get from Q, will help.
Our defense is on another level. With 4 guards , we have been swarming our opposition into rushed and turnover prone offenses. Paige as a "free safety" anticipates shots and blocks them. Have we ever seen that from a guard before?
We have two All Americans, AE and Paige.
Paige is the most complete player we have seen in years, and while she is playing we always have a good chance of winning.

I don't think you are crazy at all. My only counterpoint is the lack of size but if we can have both AE and a "new" Ice on the floor at the same time, with either KK, Ash or Nika sitting when that happens then as long as Paige is leading the way scoring we should be fine.

 

[ConnMotors]

Hey Rebecca has us in the Final Four

 

[my2cents]

I don't think you are crazy at all. My only counterpoint is the lack of size but if we can have both AE and a "new" Ice on the floor at the same time, with either KK, Ash or Nika sitting when that happens then as long as Paige is leading the way scoring we should be fine.

Good point. I am lot bigger than a bee, but a swarm of them would take me out.
Without AE in the Big East tournament, every team we played was bigger....we saw what the "swarm" could do.

 

[MooseJaw]

I don't think you are crazy at all. My only counterpoint is the lack of size but if we can have both AE and a "new" Ice on the floor at the same time, with either KK, Ash or Nika sitting when that happens then as long as Paige is leading the way scoring we should be fine.

Not for extended periods of time, Ice and AE on the floor at the same is a deliberate slow down for the Huskies. If we have learned anything this season is that UCONN is at its best when they are flying over the court. This isn't something Geno wants to do unless he wants to slow things down or his options dictate this. Not to say they won't play at the same time, just don't see this happening for any length of time.

 

[BBallF]

Not for extended periods of time, Ice and AE on the floor at the same is a deliberate slow down for the Huskies. If we have learned anything this season is that UCONN is at its best when they are flying over the court. This isn't something Geno wants to do unless he wants to slow things down or his options dictate this. Not to say they won't play at the same time, just don't see this happening for any length of time.

I agree with that with the exception that if we are getting really hurt on the boards, like giving up too many offensive rebounds, they will both be out there. It just depends on the opponent.

 

[BBallF]

Hey Rebecca has us in the Final Four

We are playing really well and 15 days off will really help Aaliyah. We are playing with house money is how I am looking at it.

 

[MSGRET]

Not for extended periods of time, Ice and AE on the floor at the same is a deliberate slow down for the Huskies. If we have learned anything this season is that UCONN is at its best when they are flying over the court. This isn't something Geno wants to do unless he wants to slow things down or his options dictate this. Not to say they won't play at the same time, just don't see this happening for any length of time.

I don't know about that, AE has always ran the floor and in the last 2.5 games Ice showed that not only she can run, score and play defense, she did it without fouling.

 

[snlMINAJ]

would love to see them face texas or ucla again, or ohio st - redemption idgaf

 

[JellyBean]

All true. But it is possible ICE Brady will be an X factor. We have seen her emerge. What if she gets better and better? She can hit from the outside, as well ( even though coach does not like it when she takes jump shots ). And with ICE's improved play, the duo of ICE and Edwards might be more trouble than most teams have anticipated ( which was not true a month earlier ). That combo also gives some bench rest opportunities for KK and ASH ( not likely Nika or Paige will come out once the Big Dance gets serious ).

I am with you 100%

 

[VA Huskie]

I think that if we play our game the Elite Eight is definitely attainable and the FF possible. As someone mentioned, Geno typically only plays a 7 man rotation this time of year. If Ice plays at the level she did in the BET we have an excellent top 6. Our defense has been fantastic these past couple of months, Paige has been otherworldly and AE is a top 5 pick in the WNBA draft. Then there’s our secret weapon - Nika! We’re a better team right now than we’ve been at any time this year. Yes, I’m excited for March Madness!

 

[BfromCT]

We now have the brackets for the 2024 NCAA Tournament. UConn is a #3 seed in the Regional #3 Portland bracket. First game Saturday at 1:00 against #14 Jackson State and then Monday against winner of Syracuse/play in. The Sweet Sixteen matchup, assuming that the Huskies win two games at Storrs, would most likely be against #2 Ohio State or perhaps #7 Duke and the regional final against University of Southern California. I think most of us would agree that this is not a bad draw for our beloved team. Still, since UConn has a #3 seed, the pathway forwards is more difficult than with the usual top seed. The Huskies have a decent chance against Ohio State because, as someone has already pointed out, this year’s team has enough healthy guards to handle any full court pressure.

We know that Aaliyah Edwards will be ready to play with a mask. Since she wore one for much of last season, the adjustment to it will probably not be difficult and she will have the Jackson State game to prepare. We shall also see this weekend if Ice Brady’s improved play continues because a second quality front line player is vitally needed. We know what we will get from Paige, Nika, and Aaliyah and we can hope that the Big East tournament experience will give confidence to the four newcomers, for the Huskies will need at least 30 points from them to hope to advance.

As noted in a previous message, four factors have to break the team’s way for advancement - keeping out of foul trouble, All American performances from Paige and Aaliyah, and success from the 3-point line. If they fall into place, an advance to the regional finals is not out of the question, but a victory over Southern California is probably a bridge too far.

Hope is, nevertheless, eternal and another trip to the Final Four is not totally beyond the realm of possibility. Go Huskies!