Key tweets, and it's all gone to Hell.

[Husky25]

College football is becoming unwatchable.

The portal helps smooth out the midrange talent but a 4 star freshman used to play immediately. Now they ride the bench and lose confidence, which almost certainly affects their play.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Add this to the long list of stupid Kliavkoff quotes...........

"If some of our schools would have been a little more patient, it would have paid off."

You had over a year where your only job was to secure a media rights deal and you failed. Over a year. How much more patient could they have been?

The only offer on the table was a streaming deal with Apple tied to subscription rates which at best would have landed in the same ballpark revenue wise as the Big 12, or slightly less.

Kliavkoff could not provide to Washington what the B1G provides. Yet, Kliavkoff said they should have been more patient.

https://www.si.com/college/stanford/football/george-kliavkoff-blames-pac-12-schools-impatience-for-conference-collapse

Kliavkoff had a deal in hand for about $30m per school. Don't know if they would have accepted it but he had it. Unfortunately he listened to some college professor who convinced him to push and hold out for $50m/school.

That is what sealed the PAC's fate.

Pac-12 downfall: Professor reportedly developed healthy TV valuation, but 'ESPN did not react very well to it' - Saturday Out West

Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff worked between the media companies and the presidents.

saturdayoutwest.com

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I disagree re this part. If the P2 consolidate, it won't be by kicking out the lesser teams. I don't even know if their contracts/bylaws allow for kicking a school out. Temple was an odd situation. More likely, the top of the Big10 and SEC would break away and create their own super conference(s). So, the schools you are referencing are in no worse of a position than they were before. In a perfect world, they are the Kansas City Royals, feeding from the smaller trough of general profits while providing wins for the top teams that rake in additional revenue. I'd rather be the Royals than an independent minor league team. Worst case scenario, the top of the Big10 leaves and those teams are still in a strong non-P2 (P1?) conference that can poach others.

I do think that the ACC showed weakness by taking Stanford and Cal and certainly SMU. That looks like a money grab by a group that knows it's dead soon so it may as well grab as much cash is it can.

One of two things will happen.

1) Consolidating to two leagues won't work because too many fans will check out if their school is not part of the mix. This is what I think will happen.

2) Consolidation works, and the P2 realize that they can keep all the money for themselves. But if they were able to cut loose the ACC and Pac 12 and Big 12, why wouldn't they look inward and cut loose their own deadweight?

If you think the P2 is the way of the future, Rutgers and the rest of the bottom feeders are toast. If you think that consolidating to a P2 will fail, then Rutgers could also find itself on the fringe of a bloated conference.

Either way, Rutgers is not home free by any means.

 

[UConnJim]

Kliavkoff had a deal in hand for about $30m per school. Don't know if they would have accepted it but he had it. Unfortunately he listened to some college professor who convinced him to push and hold out for $50m/school.

That is what sealed the PAC's fate.

Pac-12 downfall: Professor reportedly developed healthy TV valuation, but 'ESPN did not react very well to it' - Saturday Out West

Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff worked between the media companies and the presidents.

saturdayoutwest.com

What really sealed the Pac 12's fate was the mediocre on field and on court performance for many years. From 2014 to 2022, the Pac 12 had two participants in the CFP, Washington in 2016. During that same time period, the Pac 12 had two participants in the Final Four, Oregon in 2017 and UCLA in 2021 with no championships. USC and Oregon football struggled to be consistent as has Arizona and UCLA basketball.

What's unfortunate for the Pac 12 is that it looks like they had turned around football (but not USC) and basketball. Sometimes timing is everything.

 

[UConnJim]

One of two things will happen.

1) Consolidating to two leagues won't work because too many fans will check out if their school is not part of the mix. This is what I think will happen.

2) Consolidation works, and the P2 realize that they can keep all the money for themselves. But if they were able to cut loose the ACC and Pac 12 and Big 12, why wouldn't they look inward and cut loose their own deadweight?

If you think the P2 is the way of the future, Rutgers and the rest of the bottom feeders are toast. If you think that consolidating to a P2 will fail, then Rutgers could also find itself on the fringe of a bloated conference.

Either way, Rutgers is not home free by any means.

I think you will get unequal revenue sharing over time and streaming will make it easier to happen. Let's say the Big Ten Network ultimately goes direct to consumer. You can have your fans subscribe to the BTN and register as a fan of your school and schools will be paid based on their subscriber numbers. For other games on networks, you can compensate schools by viewers. Plus, you can compensate schools by performance such as NCAA basketball credits or CFP money. I think they will keep the Rutgers of the world around, pay them less, and they can absorb the game losses.

 

[Chuck]

One of two things will happen.

1) Consolidating to two leagues won't work because too many fans will check out if their school is not part of the mix. This is what I think will happen.

2) Consolidation works, and the P2 realize that they can keep all the money for themselves. But if they were able to cut loose the ACC and Pac 12 and Big 12, why wouldn't they look inward and cut loose their own deadweight?

If you think the P2 is the way of the future, Rutgers and the rest of the bottom feeders are toast. If you think that consolidating to a P2 will fail, then Rutgers could also find itself on the fringe of a bloated conference.

Either way, Rutgers is not home free by any means.

I agree with both possibilities, but I think (2)(a) could happen. That would be where the strength of the Big10 and SEC tell their bottom feeders that they are no longer going to be the NFL. They're going to be MLB. No salary caps and a much smaller pot that gets shared. Rutgers and Mississippi State get to be part of a P2, but they'll never be able to consistently compete.

But regardless, I think some version of (1) is also a probability. I watch the NFL even if my team isn't good. I watch the NBA playoffs only, and don't really have a team. But for college sports? I really only watch UConn regularly. I couldn't care less about useless bowls, and didn't even care much about the two playoffs last night despite being great games. If they consolidate more, I know I'm not the only one that will just fully check out. Not out of anger or spite. I just won't care.

 

[bendm]

What really sealed the Pac 12's fate was the mediocre on field and on court performance for many years. From 2014 to 2022, the Pac 12 had two participants in the CFP, Washington in 2016. During that same time period, the Pac 12 had two participants in the Final Four, Oregon in 2017 and UCLA in 2021 with no championships. USC and Oregon football struggled to be consistent as has Arizona and UCLA basketball.

What's unfortunate for the Pac 12 is that it looks like they had turned around football (but not USC) and basketball. Sometimes timing is everything.

And despite its struggles the PAC was still more valuable than the big12 without Texas and Oklahoma…that was my point. The timing that killed them was yormark renegotiating the big12 deal before kliavkoff leaving the PAC with a hodgepodge of streaming suitors.

 

[hoopsfan22]

The B1G or any conference for that matter doesn't have to kick out members. When the time comes they can just go form a new thing and not invite the dead weight.

 

[How Sway?!]

Rose Bowl is most-watched since '15, late night Sugar less sweet

ESPN must be salivating at the thought of the 12 team playoff, especially considering they got it at 50 cents on the dollar

 

[John]

One of two things will happen.

1) Consolidating to two leagues won't work because too many fans will check out if their school is not part of the mix. This is what I think will happen.

2) Consolidation works, and the P2 realize that they can keep all the money for themselves. But if they were able to cut loose the ACC and Pac 12 and Big 12, why wouldn't they look inward and cut loose their own deadweight?

If you think the P2 is the way of the future, Rutgers and the rest of the bottom feeders are toast. If you think that consolidating to a P2 will fail, then Rutgers could also find itself on the fringe of a bloated conference.

Either way, Rutgers is not home free by any means.

Not sure where the Rutgers fetish is coming from, but at least they made it to the adult table.

 

[shizzle787]

I think you will get unequal revenue sharing over time and streaming will make it easier to happen. Let's say the Big Ten Network ultimately goes direct to consumer. You can have your fans subscribe to the BTN and register as a fan of your school and schools will be paid based on their subscriber numbers. For other games on networks, you can compensate schools by viewers. Plus, you can compensate schools by performance such as NCAA basketball credits or CFP money. I think they will keep the Rutgers of the world around, pay them less, and they can absorb the game losses.

People keep saying this but it won't happen. Look at European soccer (the closest thing globally to college sports from a fanbase and structure perspective). The English Premier League is one of the most lucrative leagues in the world yet the top club only makes a little more than the last place club on a sliding scale. It is part equal revenue sharing and part merit-based. In Spain, the clubs a few years ago decided to bundle their TV rights together as opposed to selling them individually and everyone got a massive payday at the time.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Not sure where the Rutgers fetish is coming from, but at least they made it to the adult table.

Oregon State and Washington State thought they were at the adult table. How did that work out for them?

 

[Dizzy21]

Kliavkoff is not wrong or right yet. Washington and Oregon, and UCLA and USC for that matter, made a short term decision based on a trying to cash in on a cable business model that is rapidly dying. They will make a few more bucks in the short term, but there is no telling how this ends up.

The schools that may have signed their own death warrant are schools like Michigan State, Rutgers, Maryland, Minnesota, Indiana and Purdue. The Big 10 is not going to need all these schools if it becomes one of a P2. There is no way Rutgers survives that consolidation.

60% of the BIG10 games are going to be streaming next year, including some exclusively so, on a service that has a lot more subscribers than Apple. Every CBS game will also air on Paramount+ and every NBC game on Peacock, plus 9 exclusive games on Peacock. The deal capitalizes on the current big cable money, while also heavily moving into the streaming space simultaneously. Seems like great short term and long term thinking went into that.

 

[John]

Oregon State and Washington State thought they were at the adult table. How did that work out for them?

So better to not even try then, very defeatist of you.

 

[Kolumbo]

Iowa was shut out 35-0 by Tennessee, worst shut-out rout in Citrus Bowl history, and Iowa isn't even one of the dead weight programs in that conference.

 

[UConnJim]

People keep saying this but it won't happen. Look at European soccer (the closest thing globally to college sports from a fanbase and structure perspective). The English Premier League is one of the most lucrative leagues in the world yet the top club only makes a little more than the last place club on a sliding scale. It is part equal revenue sharing and part merit-based. In Spain, the clubs a few years ago decided to bundle their TV rights together as opposed to selling them individually and everyone got a massive payday at the time.

Look at the newspaper business. I have a friend who works in the business and when the newspaper became available on-line, they could measure how many people were reading each article and the newspaper's management had the ability to improve pay for the writers that were being read and reduce pay or positions for the writers who weren't being read. They didn't do that. Slowly but surely, the good writers in areas in which readers were interested started moving on and the writers that weren't being read clinged to their jobs as they had no alternative. Down the road, schools like Ohio State are going to say, we're bringing 1.5 million subscribers to the BTN at $10/month and Northwestern is only bringing in 50k subscribers, but our total media payment from all media partners is $100 million per year the same as Northwestern, so we want more. The whole media world is about clicks and views so I don't see why college football media compensation doesn't go the same way. And, I think this would be a very good thing for UConn athletics!

 

[AllHusky]

Recapping, it sounds as though the Boneyard has a faction that sees evolution of the current model to a "Premier League of College Football". Some sort of Meritocracy would ensue. Measurables would start with W's and L's and include eyeballs, clicks, subscriptions, any metric conducive to quantitative evaluation. The Premier League might have a revolving door at the bottom, with teams moving in and out from Premier to subPremier(??) based on those metrics, for an undetermined stay both in or out.

Interesting, makes sense, but the Boston Colleges of the world would fight tooth and nail. UconnJim's statement that this would be very good for UConn is right on. However, it will take years of pumping money into FB chasing the hope that this model does in fact evolve, giving us a chance to play our way into the Premier League.

 

[AllHusky]

Some data to chew on (assuming his #’s are accurate - not my math):

Measurables that help determine who moves in and out of the "Premier League" should it come to be?

 

[Husky92]

Some data to chew on (assuming his #’s are accurate - not my math):

Link deleted?

 

[huskymedic]

Link deleted?

 

[Rufus]

Measurables that help determine who moves in and out of the "Premier League" should it come to be?

UConn - $37 million

P5 teams making less:
Rutgers - $36 million
UCF - $31 million
Oregon State - $30 million
Washington State - $29 million
Houston - $20 million


Kind of surprising that UConn only makes $1 million more than Rutgers! After Rutgers, UConn is only ahead of new P5 teams UCF and Houston, as well as on the way out P5 teams Oregon State and Washington State.

 

[Rufus]

So the new "PAC-12" Super Conference would look like this, based on who can generate the most revenue without media contracts:

1. UConn - $37 million
2. UNLV - $33 million
3. Oregon State - $30 million
4. Washington State - $29 million
5. San Diego State - $29 million
6. Colorado State - $26 million
7. Boise State - $25 million
8. Fresno State - $23 million
9. Wyoming - $23 million
10. Memphis - $23 million
11. East Carolina - $21 million
12. Old Dominion - $21 million
13. New Mexico - $20 million
14. USF - $19 million
15. Nevada - $18 million
16. Wichita State - $17 million (no football)
17. Appalachia State - $16 million
18. Florida Atlantic - $15 million
19. Georgia State - $15 million
20. Arkansas State - $15 million

If you split this into 2 divisions to limit travel:

East -
UConn
Memphis
East Carolina
Old Dominion
USF
Wichita State (no football)
Appalachia State
Florida Atlantic
Georgia State
Arkansas State

West -
UNLV
Oregon State
Washington State
San Diego State
Colorado State
Boise State
Fresno State
Wyoming
New Mexico
Nevada


**Since private schools were excluded in the numbers, this may skew the results. Not sure which private schools in the G5 make more than $15 million, the cutoff in this scenario.

 

[Rufus]

 

[How Sway?!]

It's even more impressive when you consider we don't have a P5 football schedule to pump up the ticket revenue.

 

[Chin Diesel]

It's even more impressive when you consider we don't have a P5 football schedule to pump up the ticket revenue.

No kidding. Just getting 15K more fans in the crowd for six more games is a bump of $3-$5 million.