OT: Kentucky Derby

[B1GEast]

Any thoughts on this year's race?

Favorite Fierceness drew the unlucky post 17. No horse has ever won from that post position.

Should be a fun race

 

[bazzdog]

I’m gonna put a little scratch on Dornoch and Catching Freedom

 

[Verne]

Encino already scratched so Fierceness starts from post 16. Epic Ride draws in and connections say they are going, which adds an element of adversity for the likely favorite. The post 17 stuff is trash data. They got rid of the auxiliary gate 3 years ago so all that data should be tossed.

Fierceness is a lot faster than the field. He's a historically fast horse at this stage of his career. The problem is he also has two complete stinkers. It's possible he didn't like the slop at Aqueduct last year and also possible he wasn't totally cranked off the layoff in the Holy Bull this year. His A or B race likely wins this derby comfortably assuming he gets the trip he wants. If he doesn't fire than he misses the board completely.

I'm going to be heavy to Fierceness. The horse seems to be on a different level than the rest. Sierra Leone is a terrible bet at 3-1/4-1. That horse will need to pass almost the entire field to win and that's always tough. Recency bias has a couple closers winning in last couple years (Mage and Rich Strike) but both were on a complete pace meltdowns. I really don't think we'll see that crazy of a pace. It should also be noted that Churchill Downs is currently lightning fast. They've clearly tried to keep the track as fast as possible to keep it as safe as possible given all the problems and high profile breakdowns the sport has seen recently. Weather could play with the track a bit but so far the times are ridiculous. Yesterday a maiden race went 2:02:49 for 10F. That's a Kentucky derby winning time. Faster tracks tend to lead to faster times and more conducive to speed horses.

5/2 on Fierceness could be an overlay if he runs his race on a fast track.

I have no opinions on underneath stuff yet but I'll be connecting a lot with Fierceness. He's as strong of a derby fav we've seen since Justify and has the advantage of not having to run against any Bafferts or good west coast horses in general.

 

[AidanFan20]

I used to be WAYYYYYY into horse racing, can barely keep enough interest to glance at the past-performances for a few minutes now...

But I still follow a few highly-involved horse peeps on Twitter. One of them has tweeted out "Why hasn't anyone jumped on Stronghold yet?"

Longshot winner of the Santa Anita Derby, beating all those Baffert hotshots. Just looked at his bloodlines, son of Ghostzapper with mostly sprint-to-mile types on the female side. 6 starts, 3 wins, 3 2nd's.

My interest in live racing has waned, but I still play an online game called Derbyfever (or ehorseracing, they use both sites concurrently)

I've been playing that game since just a few weeks after it came online in 1998.

Only reason I bring that up here...

Take a look at who rides my virtual horses!

 

[AidanFan20]

I know, SMC colors, but except for the bits of red, they're close to UConn's... Maybe I can get my silks edited...

 

[Deepster]

Encino already scratched so Fierceness starts from post 16. Epic Ride draws in and connections say they are going, which adds an element of adversity for the likely favorite. The post 17 stuff is trash data. They got rid of the auxiliary gate 3 years ago so all that data should be tossed.

Fierceness is a lot faster than the field. He's a historically fast horse at this stage of his career. The problem is he also has two complete stinkers. It's possible he didn't like the slop at Aqueduct last year and also possible he wasn't totally cranked off the layoff in the Holy Bull this year. His A or B race likely wins this derby comfortably assuming he gets the trip he wants. If he doesn't fire than he misses the board completely.

I'm going to be heavy to Fierceness. The horse seems to be on a different level than the rest. Sierra Leone is a terrible bet at 3-1/4-1. That horse will need to pass almost the entire field to win and that's always tough. Recency bias has a couple closers winning in last couple years (Mage and Rich Strike) but both were on a complete pace meltdowns. I really don't think we'll see that crazy of a pace. It should also be noted that Churchill Downs is currently lightning fast. They've clearly tried to keep the track as fast as possible to keep it as safe as possible given all the problems and high profile breakdowns the sport has seen recently. Weather could play with the track a bit but so far the times are ridiculous. Yesterday a maiden race went 2:02:49 for 10F. That's a Kentucky derby winning time. Faster tracks tend to lead to faster times and more conducive to speed horses.

5/2 on Fierceness could be an overlay if he runs his race on a fast track.

I have no opinions on underneath stuff yet but I'll be connecting a lot with Fierceness. He's as strong of a derby fav we've seen since Justify and has the advantage of not having to run against any Bafferts or good west coast horses in general.

Yup. So I’ll take Fierceness out of the money.

 

[Verne]

Longshot winner of the Santa Anita Derby, beating all those Baffert hotshots. Just looked at his bloodlines, son of Ghostzapper with mostly sprint-to-mile types on the female side. 6 starts, 3 wins, 3 2nd's.

Stronghold was the favorite in the Santa Anita derby and didn't beat any of Bafferts A tier horses. It was one of the weakest renditions of the SA Derby in a long time. The Baffert ban coupled with West racing dying a slow death has resulted in bad racing in California.

 

[Waquoit]

Sierra Leone is a terrible bet at 3-1/4-1. That horse will need to pass almost the entire field to win and that's always tough. Recency bias has a couple closers winning in last couple years (Mage and Rich Strike) but both were on a complete pace meltdowns.

Sierra Leone is a real horse unlike Rich Strike. He won at shorter closing into a dawdling pace. Fade at your own risk.

 

[AidanFan20]

Stronghold was the favorite in the Santa Anita derby and didn't beat any of Bafferts A tier horses. It was one of the weakest renditions of the SA Derby in a long time. The Baffert ban coupled with West racing dying a slow death has resulted in bad racing in California.

That's what I get for taking someone's tweet without looking the facts over.

 

[AidanFan20]

btw, I agree about CA racing... Except for a few races for top older horses and the Breeder's Cups they tend to host just about every two or three years, the racing here has gone El Stinko, and even moreso in NorCal. I mean... when you have two maiden-claimers and one or two allowances and maybe one little stakes race on a Saturday card... The tracks might as well close up shop.

Oh, wait... Bay Meadows is long gone, and Golden Gate is in almost certainly its last meet.

 

[Fishy]

Sierra Leone is a real horse unlike Rich Strike. He won at shorter closing into a dawdling pace. Fade at your own risk.

My concern there is 1) he’s a bad gate horse on a good day and he breaks badly. He could exhaust himself before he gets into the gate and/or he could be completely buried before his race starts; and 2) he’s not an efficient mover. He paddles pretty badly with his left fore and that’s less than ideal going a mile and a quarter.

 

[Waquoit]

btw, I agree about CA racing... Except for a few races for top older horses and the Breeder's Cups they tend to host just about every two or three years, the racing here has gone El Stinko, and even moreso in NorCal. I mean... when you have two maiden-claimers and one or two allowances and maybe one little stakes race on a Saturday card... The tracks might as well close up shop.

Oh, wait... Bay Meadows is long gone, and Golden Gate is in almost certainly its last meet.

Racing stinks all over these days. The 8th race "feature" at Aquduct last week was a 12.5 claimer. When I started 12-14 claimers were the lowest level race they carded.

 

[Fan1978]

My concern there is 1) he’s a bad gate horse on a good day and he breaks badly. He could exhaust himself before he gets into the gate and/or he could be completely buried before his race starts; and 2) he’s not an efficient mover. He paddles pretty badly with his left fore and that’s less than ideal going a mile and a quarter.

The horse has a massive stride. He will be coming late but you always need racing luck in the derby. He will almost certainly hit the board. He is bred for the distance top and bottom and the pace is expected to be fast. He will save ground in the first turn. If he is able to save ground in the final turn he is likely the winner unless fierceness freaks which i think is unlikely because its going to be fast up front.

 

[JungleLobo]

Get some non-Kentucky bourbon for the race: UConn Natty Licensed Bourbon

 

[Verne]

I

Sierra Leone is a real horse unlike Rich Strike. He won at shorter closing into a dawdling pace. Fade at your own risk.

I mean sure. He's a real horse but he's also a horse that doesn't break well, likes to run in back and will have to pass almost the entire field to win. Again I never said he wasn't a good horse but the worst bet in horse racing is a short priced deep closer and that's exactly what SL is. Rich Strike was the longest shot in the field and Mage was 15-1 ish(I think). At least you're getting paid for those opinions.

Will need to see what the weather does to the track but the current times of these races are absolutely crazy. The track is incredibly scraped for speed right now. A 50 claimer just went 1:09 for 6 furlongs. There's clearly intent to keep the track light and fast so there are no breakdowns. We'll see what happens on Saturday but right now I couldn't touch a closer on this dirt.

 

[sledog]

The mudders may prevail Sat.

 

[Fan1978]

I
I mean sure. He's a real horse but he's also a horse that doesn't break well, likes to run in back and will have to pass almost the entire field to win. Again I never said he wasn't a good horse but the worst bet in horse racing is a short priced deep closer and that's exactly what SL is. Rich Strike was the longest shot in the field and Mage was 15-1 ish(I think). At least you're getting paid for those opinions.

Will need to see what the weather does to the track but the current times of these races are absolutely crazy. The track is incredibly scraped for speed right now. A 50 claimer just went 1:09 for 6 furlongs. There's clearly intent to keep the track light and fast so there are no breakdowns. We'll see what happens on Saturday but right now I couldn't touch a closer on this dirt.

He is 6-1

 

[Waquoit]

Japanese horses are so much better than US horses these days, it's just a matter of time before one wins the Derby. Why not today? So I'm going Forever Young - Sierra Leone with Resilience as my longshot. My saver is Fierceness over these 3 in a tri and super key.

 

[Waquoit]

This is called a tough beat.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

That was one of the greatest rides ever in a Derby . That horse ran the minimum possible distance .
His patience staying on the rail looked like he was boxed out but squeezed by the tiny opening on the final turn.

 

[huskymedic]

@Storrs South made me snork my drink:

 

[Fan1978]

This is called a tough beat.

My 19k to show enjoyed the race just fine

 

[uconngb]

My 19k to show enjoyed the race just fine

Not a chance in hell you laid that kind of scratch on that race

 

[Fan1978]

Not a chance in hell you laid that kind of scratch on that race

Long time horse player. Derby a unique race, if horse runs big they don’t always win but finish in money. Show typically pays. At least even money or more. I think its the smart bet in this race only. Biggest bet i ever made but netted 25k. Not my typical play but hated the favorite and was confident sierra leone would run big. Look me up in Saratoga for travers always there. Hit pick 6 at travers last year yielded almost 60k on 108 bet. Wacqoit send my your cell and will send you picture of winning tickets.

 

[Waquoit]

Wacqoit send my your cell and will send you picture of winning tickets.

Nah. My two horses beat each other up for half the stretch. Both of them pass the winner if they lay off each other. I had a couple of nice horizontals live. I don't need a show bettor rubbing it in.