If UConn doesn't make the tournament...

[Balker]

UConn's BPI is currently 29, assuming their BPI holds above 33, it would be the best team (based on BPI) that didn't make the tournament since 2012, which is when they started using that metric.

As far as I can tell, the current record holder for best BPI that got left out, was fellow #AmericanRising team, SMU, 33rd in 2014.

 

[KemBuckets21]

UConn's BPI is currently 29, assuming their BPI holds above 33, it would be the best team (based on BPI) that didn't make the tournament since 2012, which is when they started using that metric.

As far as I can tell, the current record holder for best BPI that got left out, was fellow #AmericanRising team, SMU, 33rd in 2014.

I guess that's a reason to be optimistic.

 

[pnow15]

The sun will rise in the morning.

 

[Inyatkin]

If UConn doesn't make the field, Nolan and Calhoun will end their four-year careers with perfect NCAA tournament records. Wonder when the last time that's happened.

 

[Jerry1714]

UConn's BPI is currently 29, assuming their BPI holds above 33, it would be the best team (based on BPI) that didn't make the tournament since 2012, which is when they started using that metric.

As far as I can tell, the current record holder for best BPI that got left out, was fellow #AmericanRising team, SMU, 33rd in 2014.

That SMU's team SOS was 135 and OOCSOS was 303 as well and they had 4 top 100 wins and had 2 horrendous losses, all much worse than UConn's current resume.

UConn's Kenpom is 30, the highest ranked Kenpom team to not make it last year was Florida at 46.

UConn is in a lot better position then people realize.

 

[Inyatkin]

That SMU's team SOS was 135 and OOCSOS was 303 as well and they had 4 top 100 wins and had 2 horrendous losses, all much worse than UConn's current resume.

UConn's Kenpom is 30, the highest ranked Kenpom team to not make it last year was Florida at 46.

UConn is in a lot better position then people realize.

And we're playing a likely tournament team tomorrow. I'm in agreement that we probably ought to be in even with a loss. But, not to get all conspiratorial, I'm also pretty sure we'd be out.

 

[Balker]

I honestly don't think The American is that bad of a conference. I think that the committee's perception of it is much worse than the conference actually is, and a lot of the opinion based portions of the metrics we use under-value it, and we pay the price for that.

And that's why SMU is the current record holder for a tourney snub. And UConn, if they lose tomorrow, may soon top that record.

 

[kobe]

I don't know if UConn will make the tournament but I do know UConn defeat Cincinnati tomorrow.

 

[Balker]

If UConn doesn't make the field, Nolan and Calhoun will end their four-year careers with perfect NCAA tournament records. Wonder when the last time that's happened.

Carmello Anthony ended his career undefeated in 2003. I'm sure there are other freshman, but that's the only one I could think of off the top of my head.

But a four year career... that's a tall order. There has to be someone.

 

[Bryan Lord]

I don't know if UConn will make the tournament but I do know UConn defeat Cincinnati tomorrow.

Are you saying your boys are "doomed"?

 

[upstater]

I don't know if UConn will make the tournament but I do know UConn defeat Cincinnati tomorrow.

If UConn loses, it will root for Cincy to win the tourney, because I think that will be the only possible route for UConn to get a bid.

 

[nomar]

It's a must-win game for us, period.

How many times can the selection committee on the AAC before it becomes crystal clear to everyone that all tiebreakers and benefits of doubt go the detriment of the AAC?

 

[August_West]

I don't know if UConn will make the tournament but I do know UConn defeat Cincinnati tomorrow.

Not possible. We cant handle your interior.

Cinci 149 - UConn -37

 

[Jerry1714]

And we're playing a likely tournament team tomorrow. I'm in agreement that we probably ought to be in even with a loss. But, not to get all conspiratorial, I'm also pretty sure we'd be out.

Our numbers are similar to Cincys last year.

Cincy - 22-10, RPI 41, SOS 56, 2 top 25 wins, 8 top 100 wins, 34 Kenpom, 46 BPI
UConn - 21-10, RPI 56, SOS 57, 2 top 25 wins, 6 top 100 wins, 31 Kenpom, 29 BPI

Cincy got an 8 seed. That 8 seed really hurts the committee hates the AAC narrative and the conspiracy theorists.

Not saying UConn is in with a loss, I am just saying they may be

 

[Jerry1714]

It's a must-win game for us, period.

How many times can the selection committee on the AAC before it becomes crystal clear to everyone that all tiebreakers and benefits of doubt go the detriment of the AAC?

Probably as many times as you will post this despite the numbers being posted 100 times on this board proving the point wrong. But do not give up, don't ever give up.

 

[nomar]

Probably as many times as you will post this despite the numbers being posted 100 times on this board proving the point wrong. But do not give up, don't ever give up.

Lunardi has us out right now, doesn't he? If we lose, how do we get in? Is he that off?

#41 in RPI is a lot different from #56. That's a huge gap, actually.

Where are the numbers you're talking about? Honestly, I would love nothing more to be proven wrong -- and to be given some confidence.

You've seen me post a lot, Jerry. You should know I'm not a "the world is out to get UConn" guy. But I have seen, every year, the AAC get screwed out of at least one slot. Temple's RPI was #34 last year.

 

[Deepster]

I honestly don't think The American is that bad of a conference. I think that the committee's perception of it is much worse than the conference actually is, and a lot of the opinion based portions of the metrics we use under-value it, and we pay the price for that.

And that's why SMU is the current record holder for a tourney snub. And UConn, if they lose tomorrow, may soon top that record.

And what are you basing that opinion off? I tend to think it's a horrible conference.

 

[Jerry1714]

Lunardi has us out right now, doesn't he? If we lose, how do we get in? Is he that off?

#41 in RPI is a lot different from #56. That's a huge gap, actually.

Where are the numbers you're talking about? Honestly, I would love nothing more to be proven wrong -- and to be given some confidence.

You've seen me post a lot, Jerry. You should know I'm not a "the world is out to get UConn" guy. But I have seen, every year, the AAC get screwed out of at least one slot.

Committee said last year the RPI is not a determinate as to who gets in as it use to be, the advanced metrics are given more weight now. This is why Colorado State with an RPI of 29 was left out over teams like Davidson who had worse RPI but much better Kenpom's and BPI's. Or UCLA who got in with an RPI of 49, but who also had much better BPI and Kenpom than CSU.

As for Lunardi, here are the rankings: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

He is average, the top 2 guys have us in, 1 not even in the last 4, and other as the 1st last 4, so pretty far off from Lunardi.

I know one of the threads for the Temple/Nova game went into detail on the numbers, yes the AAC has had some slights, as have every other conference, but they have also been seeded properly the majority of the time.

 

[nomar]

Committee said last year the RPI is not a determinate as to who gets in as it use to be, the advanced metrics are given more weight now. This is why Colorado State with an RPI of 29 was left out over teams like Davidson who had worse RPI but much better Kenpom's and BPI's. Or UCLA who got in with an RPI of 49, but who also had much better BPI and Kenpom than CSU.

As for Lunardi, here are the rankings: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

He is average, the top 2 guys have us in, 1 not even in the last 4, and other as the 1st last 4, so pretty far off from Lunardi.

I know one of the threads for the Temple/Nova game went into detail on the numbers, yes the AAC has had some slights, as have every other conference, but they have also been seeded properly the majority of the time.

Thanks, I've seen that list before. FWIW, the top guy says UConn is one of the last 4 in. I don't think there's a realistic chance of us getting in if we lose. Like I said, I'd love to be wrong -- of course, I'd love much more to beat Cincy and lock it down.

I do think the AAC has gotten screwed. I think Louisville's #4 seed and UConn's #7 seed were ridiculous, and I think there's something to be said for the fact that there was nobody on the committee standing up for the conference -- unlike the P5 conferences. It's not *all* about the numbers, and numbers can be easily manipulated to fit with the desired results.

 

[August_West]

Committee said last year the RPI is not a determinate as to who gets in as it use to be, the advanced metrics are given more weight now. This is why Colorado State with an RPI of 29 was left out over teams like Davidson who had worse RPI but much better Kenpom's and BPI's. Or UCLA who got in with an RPI of 49, but who also had much better BPI and Kenpom than CSU.

As for Lunardi, here are the rankings: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

He is average, the top 2 guys have us in, 1 not even in the last 4, and other as the 1st last 4, so pretty far off from Lunardi.

I know one of the threads for the Temple/Nova game went into detail on the numbers, yes the AAC has had some slights, as have every other conference, but they have also been seeded properly the majority of the time.

Jerry you are doing Gods work............ but

1) I think you need a break
2) I truly fear for you on selection Sunday if we get passed over with good advanced metrics. I envision your head exploding like that scene in "Scanners"

 

[BFieldHusky]

Look it comes down to what the committee is looking at. How much will they rely on the advanced metrics versus something like the RPI. The most recent trend of the last 3 years is that they are relying more on the metrics. This is why I agree with @Jerry1714 that we are in better shape than people think. I still think we will most likely be out if we lose Friday (that's the pessimist in me) but I don't think it is impossible.

Also, how does the committee view bad losses to teams outside of the Top 150 in the RPI? Uconn doesn't have one loss like this. I said it before...the advantage of playing Cincy tomorrow versus a team like Memphis, with horrible numbers, is that the overall metrics won't move much with a loss tomorrow.

 

[upstater]

It's a must-win game for us, period.

How many times can the selection committee on the AAC before it becomes crystal clear to everyone that all tiebreakers and benefits of doubt go the detriment of the AAC?

yes, but, for all the crapping on us, the committee has not yet reduced the AAC to just the autobid, as though we were the Northeast Conference.

 

[Gurleyman]

So far this week, UNC Wilmington, Gonzaga and Pitt have all seen their RPI jump about 8-9 spots after their last wins (over Hofstra, Saint Mary's and Syracuse - who are all top 64 in the RPI). UNCW and Gonzaga jumped over us with their wins. Meanwhile, the teams they beat only slipped about 2-3 spots.

If form holds (nothing happens in a vacuum, but there's not a lot of games nationally every day), we can move up to about 47-48 with a win over Cincinnati. and we'll be about 60 if we lose.

Even if RPI is only one metric, there's still a lot at stake.

i.e. win.

 

[Jerry1714]

Jerry you are doing Gods work.. but

1) I think you need a break
2) I truly fear for you on selection Sunday if we get passed over with good advanced metrics. I envision your head exploding like that scene in "Scanners"

Ha, thanks. If we beat Cincy and do not get in then it will be a race between my head or my heart on what explodes first with anger. If we lose to Cincy I will "live" with being out.

 

[B1GEast]

WTF kind of post is this?