How many bids for the American?

[partyATkemba]

2. And I'm fairly confident - bear with me here.

For all intents and purposes I will consider the following teams the only one's able to win the AAC tourney: Houston, Cincy, Tulsa, Wichita St., UConn and Memphis.

The American conference has one lock in the tournament field and that is Houston.
Most brackets undeniably have Wichita State and Cincy as either IN or very close to IN. Most brackets if not all have all other teams out.

Houston is on the bottom of the AAC bracket. Wichita St., Cincy and UConn are on the top of the AAC bracket and can't play Houston until Sunday. If Houston makes the finals against Wichita/Cincy/UConn - the committee may want to deem that game irrelevant for seeding purposes (i.e. not wanting to have a contingency bracket based on the outcome) and just have two teams in the field. The second team being whatever team makes the finals of the top of the bracket. Meaning, I think Cincy/UConn/WichitaSt. are playing for ONE spot in the field IF Houston makes the finals.

Tulsa and Memphis are on Houston's side of the bracket. If Tulsa/Memphis make the finals the committee are undeniably going to have to open an auto-bid spot for the conference WITH Houston. Forcing the american to have two locks in the field with a "bid steal". Keep in mind the winner of the game on Sunday cannot play in the play-in game (i.e. Last Four In as at-large). This opens the path for Wichita/Cincy to get a last 4 in spot if they make the finals and lose to Memphis/Tulsa.

All that being said, I promise you, the committee wants to do everything in their power not to have to worry about the outcome of the AAC finals at 3:15pm on selection Sunday. In my opinion we should be rooting for Houston to get to the finals so we don't need the auto-bid and can just steal Cincy/Wichita's spot in the field whether we win or lose that Sunday game.

TLDR; UConn has a path to get in if they lose to Houston on Sunday otherwise they need to win 4 in 4 days.

 

[mauconnfan]

Good post and we now know you are not Joe Lunardi

 

[Ts5034]

If we were to play our way to an at-large this week, is there any chance we are not in the first four? I just get the feeling that if we were to get an at large, they would put us in the first four.

 

[Slasher]

Fans love the idea of "elimination" games late in the season between two bubble teams, but that's just not how it works. I personally think WSU and Cincy are in better shape than a lot of people think, the committee has devalued high loss power teams the last few years. That hurts teams like Texas and UCLA who will have at least 13 losses (if they need an at-large.) Also in that boat are Indiana, Arkansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Xavier.

 

[partyATkemba]

If we were to play our way to an at-large this week, is there any chance we are not in the first four? I just get the feeling that if we were to get an at large, they would put us in the first four.

the only reason I think not is because if we win the game we won’t be in the first four. So the committee would have to have two brackets in that scenario one with us winning and one with us losing. I don’t think we get dinged for losing to Houston in Texas.

 

[partyATkemba]

Fans love the idea of "elimination" games late in the season between two bubble teams, but that's just not how it works. I personally think WSU and Cincy are in better shape than a lot of people think, the committee has devalued high loss power teams the last few years. That hurts teams like Texas and UCLA who will have at least 13 losses (if they need an at-large.) Also in that boat are Indiana, Arkansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Xavier.

while I agree every team is looked upon in its own merit, WSU is not doing itself favors by going 1-1 or 0-1 in the AAC tourney, ditto with Cincy

 

[CTBasketball]

Don’t be surprised if Houston is the only school that gets a bid if it runs the table.

We must pray!

 

[auror]

Fans love the idea of "elimination" games late in the season between two bubble teams, but that's just not how it works. I personally think WSU and Cincy are in better shape than a lot of people think, the committee has devalued high loss power teams the last few years. That hurts teams like Texas and UCLA who will have at least 13 losses (if they need an at-large.) Also in that boat are Indiana, Arkansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Xavier.

That's a good point, but the way the AAC bracket has unfurled, it's hard to see it any other way.

Cincy's first game is going to be Q3 and then they get Wichita/UConn.
Wichita gets us first, which will be Q2. Then Cincy if they beat us.

Wichita is ahead in the matrix in the moment by 3 teams, and Cincy is the very last team in.

And that's with only 1 bid thief so far (A-10 looks ripe, 44% chance). There's also a ton of opportunity for a UCLA/Purdue/Texas/Ok St/etc. to rack up a bunch of quadrant wins in a deep tourny run where they don't end up winning.

I could see a scenario where it's not an elimination game for Wichita, but it is for Cincy. There's a very real chance Cincy finishes outside of the top 50 in NET, KenPom, and SOR after a close win and then loss. Currently 51, 45, 47, respectively.

And Wichita will be in real trouble if it loses to us, also.

 

[wheelerdog]

I think Houston is a lock, and only one of WSU or Cincy will make it iF they get to the final. If Houston beats anyone else in the final, it’s a one bid league.

 

[partyATkemba]

I think Houston is a lock, and only one of WSU or Cincy will make it iF they get to the final. If Houston beats anyone else in the final, it’s a one bid league.

I think this is over simplifying it. This would mean if UConn made the finals the Committee will have to have an entirely separate bracket with UConn as an auto bid (12 seed) - knocking out one of the first fours and moving everyone down one seed if they won the game at 5:30pm.

 

[navery12]

I think this is over simplifying it. This would mean if UConn made the finals the Committee will have to have an entirely separate bracket with UConn as an auto bid (12 seed) - knocking out one of the first fours and moving everyone down one seed if they won the game at 5:30pm.

Yes that's exactly what the committee does

 

[auror]

Yes that's exactly what the committee does

There is evidence the committee has been lazy in the past, especially if they are in a rush.

 

[AD DB Burner]

Don’t be surprised if Houston is the only school that gets a bid if it runs the table.

We must pray!

If Cincy and Wichita each lose their first games, that very well could happen.

 

[businesslawyer]

There is evidence the committee has been lazy in the past, especially if they are in a rush.

I heard the Committee's spokesman say a few years ago that they don't pay much attention to games starting as late as the AAC's because they don't have the time/ability to, and that they warn conferences that it is in their interests to start earlier. The AAC doesn't listen to get more money from a network for its championship game.

 

[mauconnfan]

That's a good point, but the way the AAC bracket has unfurled, it's hard to see it any other way.

Cincy's first game is going to be Q3 and then they get Wichita/UConn.
Wichita gets us first, which will be Q2. Then Cincy if they beat us.

Wichita is ahead in the matrix in the moment by 3 teams, and Cincy is the very last team in.

And that's with only 1 bid thief so far (A-10 looks ripe, 44% chance). There's also a ton of opportunity for a UCLA/Purdue/Texas/Ok St/etc. to rack up a bunch of quadrant wins in a deep tourny run where they don't end up winning.

I could see a scenario where it's not an elimination game for Wichita, but it is for Cincy. There's a very real chance Cincy finishes outside of the top 50 in NET, KenPom, and SOR after a close win and then loss. Currently 51, 45, 47, respectively.

And Wichita will be in real trouble if it loses to us, also.

I agree with everything here except I don't like looking past Tulane as much as you are here. Doomed!

 

[inWV]

Houston's in, the other 2 or 3 are on or near the bubble. CBS has the AAC as a 3 bid league, with WSU last four in. If UCONN made the finals against Houston by beating WSU and Cincy, that would obviously have the Shockers on the outside looking in, and would maybe put Cincy on the bubble.
Given their record of close games, UCONN is a few baskets away from being in the tourney. They are good enough to win out and get their, but will need more than a little luck to accomplish that.

 

[partyATkemba]

I heard the Committee's spokesman say a few years ago that they don't pay much attention to games starting as late as the AAC's because they don't have the time/ability to, and that they warn conferences that it is in their interests to start earlier. The AAC doesn't listen to get more money from a network for its championship game.

BINGO. and I believe that would help us here - if we are playing Houston - if we are playing Memphis/Tulsa they just have a blank spot for the winner. A lot of discussions are happening that day about resume's. They aren't first determining things based on the outcome of a game they don't know about whether it be a blow out of a 3 OT game.

 

[SubbaBub]

Unless there is winner is some one other than Houston, Cincy, and WSU the AAC will get 2 teams. Houston and the winner of Cincy/WSU should they play each other. If We beat WSU they are out. If we beat Cincy, they are likely still in unless there a lot of bid stealers.

My question is given a UConn win over Cincy en route to the auto-bid, does Cincy still get in? They should but I can see the committee leaving one of the last 4 bye 12 seeds for the AAC's second team and just filling it with the Cincy/WSU winner or the autobid assuming it isn't Houston.

If UConn wins they may put us in the first round and slide one of the at-larges up to the bye line.

The only way I see 3 bids is if Tulsa wins vs Cincy/WSU in the final.

 

[Austin316]

Watch SMU win the whole thing and no other bids are given.

 

[Chin Diesel]

3.

 

[partyATkemba]

Unless there is winner is some one other than Houston, Cincy, and WSU the AAC will get 2 teams. Houston and the winner of Cincy/WSU should they play each other. If We beat WSU they are out. If we beat Cincy, they are likely still in unless there a lot of bid stealers.

My question is given a UConn win over Cincy en route to the auto-bid, does Cincy still get in? They should but I can see the committee leaving one of the last 4 bye 12 seeds for the AAC's second team and just filling it with the Cincy/WSU winner or the autobid assuming it isn't Houston.

If UConn wins they may put us in the first round and slide one of the at-larges up to the bye line.

The only way I see 3 bids is if Tulsa wins vs Cincy/WSU in the final.

The committee would have that information on Saturday afternoon. So Cincy is battling against the other bubble teams, not UConn, so the top 45ish. That's what their discussions are on Sunday Cincy vs Indiana vs. Alabama. That's the path to a 3 bid AAC, because theoretically they have to leave an "auto-bid" spot open for us since they won't know the winner of Sunday's game.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Aresco said he expects 4.

 

[ucawn]

1 if Houston wins the conference tourney

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Aresco said he expects 4.

LOL

 

[BlueDogs]

2 only because 1 looks bad on the committee