How important are Top 10 Prospects to Team success?

[visitingcock]

How many do you need to make a final four run? Do you need at least one to make a final four run? Can a team sign multiple top tens during a three year period and fail to make a final four run? Differences in 1s and 10s? 1s and 5s? Oother observations and comments? Observations? Does the portal make it irrelevant?


Just for fun, in responding to the thread topic, here are the top ten prospects who have plaayed over the most recent five years, (note I cheated and added number 11 for 2019 )

2018

1	Christyn Williams	98​	Connecticut	G	5-11		Central Arkansas Christian School (AR)
2	Charli Collier	98​	Texas	F	6-5		Barbers Hill High (TX)
3	Aquira DeCosta	98​	Baylor	W	6-2		Saint Mary's H.S. (CA)
4	Shakira Austin	98​	Maryland	F	6-5		Riverdale Baptist H.S. (MD)
5	Olivia Nelson-Ododa	98​	Connecticut	P	6-4		Winder-Barrow H.S. (GA)
6	Destanni Henderson	98​	South Carolina	PG	5-8		Fort Myers H.S. (FL)
7	Queen Egbo	98​	Baylor	P	6-3		Travis H.S. (TX)
8	Sedona Prince	98​	Texas	P	6-7		Liberty Hill High (TX)
9	Emily Engstler	98​	Syracuse	W	6-2		St. Francis Prep (NY)
10	Zarielle Green	98​	Tennessee	G	6-0		Duncanville H.S. (TX)

2019

1	Haley Jones	98​	Stanford	W	6-1		Archbishop Mitty H.S. (CA)
2	Jordan Horston	98​	Tennessee	G	6-1		Columbus Africentric H.S. (OH)
3	Aliyah Boston	98​	South Carolina	P	6-4		Worcester Academy (MA)
4	Zia Cooke	98​	South Carolina	PG	5-9		Rogers H.S. (OH)
5	Rickea Jackson	98​	Mississippi State	W	6-2		Detroit Edison Public Academy (MI)
6	Samantha Brunelle	98​	Notre Dame	F	6-2		William Monroe H.S.
7	Ashley Owusu	98​	Maryland	PG	5-9		Paul VI H.S. (VA)
8	Kierstan Bell	98​	Ohio State	G	6-1		McKinley H.S. (OH)
9	Aijha Blackwell	98​	Missouri	G	6-0		Whitfield School (MO)
10	Laeticia Amihere	98​	South Carolina	F	6-3		King's Way Christian (CAN)
11	Breanna Beal	98​	South Carolina	W	6-0		Rock Island H.S. (IL)

2020

1	Paige Bueckers	98​	UConn	PG	5-11		Hopkins H.S. (MN)
2	Angel Reese	98​	Maryland	W	6-3		St. Frances Academy (MD)
3	Cameron Brink	98​	Stanford	F	6-4		Mountain View H.S. (OR)
4	Caitlin Clark	98​	Iowa	PG	5-11		Dowling Catholic H.S. (IA)
5	Kamilla Cardoso	98​	Syracuse	P	6-6
6	Diamond Johnson	98​	Rutgers	PG	5-5
7	Hailey Van Lith	98​	Louisville	G	5-7
8	Sydney Parrish	98​	Oregon	G	6-0
9	Priscilla Williams	98​	Syracuse	G	6-2
10	Deja Kelly	98​	North Carolina	G	5-8

2021

1

Azzi Fudd

98​

UConn

G

5-11

2

Raven Johnson

98​

South Carolina

PG

5-8

3

Saniya Rivers

98​

South Carolina **

G

6-0

4

Sania Feagin

98​

South Carolina

F

6-3

5

Caroline Ducharme

98​

UConn

G

6-1

6

Aaliyah Moore

97​

Texas

F

6-1

7

Jersey Wolfenbarger

97​

Arkansas

W

6-5

8

Olivia Miles

97​

Notre Dame

PG

5-10

9

Teonni Key

97​

North Carolina

W

6-3

10

Rori Harmon

97​

Texas

PG

5-6

 

[cancontent]

Interesting breakdown. Regarding your question about the portal making it irrelevant, I don't know but I think it depends on how you want to look at the data.

Take Engstler and Cardoso for example. The year they played together, the team didn't get past the second round. They both transferred and helped their new teams make the Final Four.

Then you look at Maryland who had Austin, Owusu and Reese. Could they have been a more formidable team had Austin stayed and teamed up with a healthy Reese? They could have been Elite 8 caliber in my opinion.

 

[DefenseBB]

Wow, the list is really eye opening on how many Top 10 projections were wrong.
Regardless of Final Four, only 6 of 2018 were/are considered elite (All Conference, All American listing) 2019 shows 6, 2020 shows 5 and 2021 has 4 who have shown promise on a very small sample Size of 1 season.
For all the fascinations with Rickea Jackson, Aliyah Blackwell on the transfer tread, neither has made a 1st Team All Conference Team. Most of these players not making All American or 1st Team All Conference teams are role players which is a bit disappointing. The 2020 class seems the most stacked with really Parrish as the most disappointing.

 

[Geesworld]

South Carolina has had a stranglehold on top 10 talent and it's not even close.

I think you Gotta get at least one top 10 player a year to be sweet 16 team. Mix that with two top 10 players every other year and now your talking final four to NCAA champions.

 

[Wbbfan1]

I think the strength and weakness are more important when it comes to Elite Teams that have a number of highly ranked recruits. For example this year, Boston was a far superior post player to any player on UConn. If UConn had a Post Player that was a dominant on the boards the Championship Game might have had different results. IMO the primary weaknesses for UConn over the past couple of years is the lack of a rebounder and then a quick guard that can shut down the smaller guards that have killed UConn in the Final Four.

 

[dtbtbtb]

In general every year is different and a number 1 of one year sometimes will not be good enough to make a top 5 of another year. That said, i don't know of many teams that made it to the Final 4 with no HS AA...

 

[bballnut90]

How many do you need to make a final four run? Do you need at least one to make a final four run? Can a team sign multiple top tens during a three year period and fail to make a final four run? Differences in 1s and 10s? 1s and 5s? Oother observations and comments? Observations? Does the portal make it irrelevant?


Just for fun, in responding to the thread topic, here are the top ten prospects who have plaayed over the most recent five years, (note I cheated and added number 11 for 2019 )

2018

1	Christyn Williams	98​	Connecticut	G	5-11		Central Arkansas Christian School (AR)
2	Charli Collier	98​	Texas	F	6-5		Barbers Hill High (TX)
3	Aquira DeCosta	98​	Baylor	W	6-2		Saint Mary's H.S. (CA)
4	Shakira Austin	98​	Maryland	F	6-5		Riverdale Baptist H.S. (MD)
5	Olivia Nelson-Ododa	98​	Connecticut	P	6-4		Winder-Barrow H.S. (GA)
6	Destanni Henderson	98​	South Carolina	PG	5-8		Fort Myers H.S. (FL)
7	Queen Egbo	98​	Baylor	P	6-3		Travis H.S. (TX)
8	Sedona Prince	98​	Texas	P	6-7		Liberty Hill High (TX)
9	Emily Engstler	98​	Syracuse	W	6-2		St. Francis Prep (NY)
10	Zarielle Green	98​	Tennessee	G	6-0		Duncanville H.S. (TX)

2019

1	Haley Jones	98​	Stanford	W	6-1		Archbishop Mitty H.S. (CA)
2	Jordan Horston	98​	Tennessee	G	6-1		Columbus Africentric H.S. (OH)
3	Aliyah Boston	98​	South Carolina	P	6-4		Worcester Academy (MA)
4	Zia Cooke	98​	South Carolina	PG	5-9		Rogers H.S. (OH)
5	Rickea Jackson	98​	Mississippi State	W	6-2		Detroit Edison Public Academy (MI)
6	Samantha Brunelle	98​	Notre Dame	F	6-2		William Monroe H.S.
7	Ashley Owusu	98​	Maryland	PG	5-9		Paul VI H.S. (VA)
8	Kierstan Bell	98​	Ohio State	G	6-1		McKinley H.S. (OH)
9	Aijha Blackwell	98​	Missouri	G	6-0		Whitfield School (MO)
10	Laeticia Amihere	98​	South Carolina	F	6-3		King's Way Christian (CAN)
11	Breanna Beal	98​	South Carolina	W	6-0		Rock Island H.S. (IL)

2020

1	Paige Bueckers	98​	UConn	PG	5-11		Hopkins H.S. (MN)
2	Angel Reese	98​	Maryland	W	6-3		St. Frances Academy (MD)
3	Cameron Brink	98​	Stanford	F	6-4		Mountain View H.S. (OR)
4	Caitlin Clark	98​	Iowa	PG	5-11		Dowling Catholic H.S. (IA)
5	Kamilla Cardoso	98​	Syracuse	P	6-6
6	Diamond Johnson	98​	Rutgers	PG	5-5
7	Hailey Van Lith	98​	Louisville	G	5-7
8	Sydney Parrish	98​	Oregon	G	6-0
9	Priscilla Williams	98​	Syracuse	G	6-2
10	Deja Kelly	98​	North Carolina	G	5-8

2021

1

Azzi Fudd

98​

UConn

G

5-11

2

Raven Johnson

98​

South Carolina

PG

5-8

3

Saniya Rivers

98​

South Carolina **

G

6-0

4

Sania Feagin

98​

South Carolina

F

6-3

5

Caroline Ducharme

98​

UConn

G

6-1

6

Aaliyah Moore

97​

Texas

F

6-1

7

Jersey Wolfenbarger

97​

Arkansas

W

6-5

8

Olivia Miles

97​

Notre Dame

PG

5-10

9

Teonni Key

97​

North Carolina

W

6-3

10

Rori Harmon

97​

Texas

PG

5-6

Landing top 10 kids help but I don't see it as a pre-requisite to winning titles. Mississippi State made back to back title game appearances without any top 10 kids, Arizona I don't think had any top 10 kids last year and almost won it all.

That said, landing the best player(s) in the country makes a huge difference and I think consistent recruiting at a high level is the biggest reason why programs turn into dynasties/powerhouses in women's basketball (ex. Tennessee, UCONN, Baylor, Notre Dame, Stanford, South Carolina). You look at Notre Dame specifically--they always had solid teams after their title in 2001, but they were never landing POY caliber players until they landed Diggins and they broke through as Final Four staple after that. After Diggins it led to landing Loyd, which led to Turner, Ogunbowale, Shepard, etc.

Landing top recruits doesn't guarantee success though. Warlick and McCallie never made a Final Four despite having rosters littered with top 10 kids, and Kim missed 6 straight Final Fours during a stretch when she had Griner, Sims, Cox and Kalani Brown.


I also think getting the absolute best kids makes a huge difference. Not all #1 recruits are created equal. You look at players like Christyn Williams/Megan Walker compared to Haley Jones/Paige Bueckers and it's night and day. Same thing with #3 recruits, compare the impact Brink/Boston made as freshman compared to Rivers/Decosta.

I don't think the portal makes things irrelevant since the players who thrive typically stay at the same school 3 or 4 years (unless you go to Maryland). The ones that transfer out often came off the bench, made minimal impact or experienced a coaching change. There are outliers to this, but almost all of the kids who make AA honors stay at the school they started with.

 

[bballnut90]

In general every year is different and a number 1 of one year sometimes will not be good enough to make a top 5 of another year. That said, i don't know of many teams that made it to the Final 4 with no HS AA...

Off the top of my head, programs who've made Final Fours with 0 or very few HS AAs. Some of these might be wrong :
-2021 Arizona (Cate Reese was their only McDonalds AA I believe)
-2018 Mississippi State (0 McDonald's AAs)
-2017 Mississippi State (0)
-2016 Oregon State (0)
-2016 Syracuse (Sykes and Butler were McDonald's AAs)


Prior to 2016:
-2011 Texas A&M (Karla Gilbert was a McDonald's AA)
-2009 Louisville (0)
-2005 Michigan State (0)
-2005 Baylor (0)
-2004 Minnesota (0)

 

[cancontent]

Landing top 10 kids help but I don't see it as a pre-requisite to winning titles. Mississippi State made back to back title game appearances without any top 10 kids, Arizona I don't think had any top 10 kids last year and almost won it all.

That said, landing the best player(s) in the country makes a huge difference and I think consistent recruiting at a high level is the biggest reason why programs turn into dynasties/powerhouses in women's basketball (ex. Tennessee, UCONN, Baylor, Notre Dame, Stanford, South Carolina). You look at Notre Dame specifically--they always had solid teams after their title in 2001, but they were never landing POY caliber players until they landed Diggins and they broke through as Final Four staple after that. After Diggins it led to landing Loyd, which led to Turner, Ogunbowale, Shepard, etc.

Landing top recruits doesn't guarantee success though. Warlick and McCallie never made a Final Four despite having rosters littered with top 10 kids, and Kim missed 6 straight Final Fours during a stretch when she had Griner, Sims, Cox and Kalani Brown.


I also think getting the absolute best kids makes a huge difference. Not all #1 recruits are created equal. You look at players like Christyn Williams/Megan Walker compared to Haley Jones/Paige Bueckers and it's night and day. Same thing with #3 recruits, compare the impact Brink/Boston made as freshman compared to Rivers/Decosta.

I don't think the portal makes things irrelevant since the players who thrive typically stay at the same school 3 or 4 years (unless you go to Maryland). The ones that transfer out often came off the bench, made minimal impact or experienced a coaching change. There are outliers to this, but almost all of the kids who make AA honors stay at the school they started with.

"Unless you go to Maryland" could apply here as well.

 

[veryolddog]

This is all speculation he tried to say in a nice way. If you can get
Clarisse "Bonecrusher" Jones on your team, then you will have a 75 per cent chance of winning the National Championship due to his/her skillset.

 

[WFFL]

This is all speculation he tried to say in a nice way. If you can get
Clarisse "Bonecrusher" Jones on your team, then you will have a 75 per cent chance of winning the National Championship due to his/her skillset.

Not Clarisse Bonecrusher LOL rofl hahaha

 

[veryolddog]

You have to understand, that Clarisse is 7' 2" and can stride 10 feet with one step. Her team does not shoot for the basket any more. They just toss the ball up and her reach is so long that she just drops the ball through the basket without jumping.

 

[UHF]

Top 10 high school talent plus excellent head coach plus supporting cast plus healthy players seems to yield decent success for WCBB and WCVB.



Top 3 high school players are not always at the same level each year, which makes a difference. For example, Maya Moore and Breanna Stewart versus Megan Walker and Christyn Williams.

Some, not all, examples are below. Not all former top 10 players are listed for each NC team.


4 NC for Geno with Breanna Stewart, Moriah Jefferson, Morgan Tuck.
2 NC for Geno with Tina Charles, Maya Moore.
4 NC for Geno with Sue Bird and/or Diana Taurasi.

2 NC for Pat Summitt with Candace Parker.
3 NC for Pat Summitt with Chamique Holdsclaw.

1 NC for Dawn Staley with Aliyah Boston.
1 NC for Dawn Staley with A'ja Wilson.

1 NC for Kim Mulkey with Brittney Griner, Odyssey Sims.
1 NC for Kim Mulkey with Lauren Cox.

1 NC for Tara VanDerveer with Haley Jones, Cameron Brink.


WCVB teams that had former top high school players.

9 NC for Stanford including 3 out of 4.
7 NC for Penn State including 4 straight.
5 NC for Nebraska.

 

[jchusky]

this list tells me that Uconn whiffed badly in recruiting in 2019 and I think they paid the price this final. Just getting 1 or 2 of those top 10 recruits mighta helped in the final.

 

[UHF]

this list tells me that Uconn whiffed badly in recruiting in 2019 and I think they paid the price this final. Just getting 1 or 2 of those top 10 recruits mighta helped in the final.

We will never know how the NC game would have played out - if Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd, and Aubrey Griffin were healthy and available for the entire season. Injuries are an unfortunate part of sports, which is why my original post included "plus healthy players".

 

[jchusky]

We will never know how the NC game would have played out - if Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd, and Aubrey Griffin were healthy and available for the entire season. Injuries are an unfortunate part of sports, which is why my original post included "plus healthy players".

Raven Johnson was hurt why do ppl always seem to forget that? The 1st meeting in November there were no injuries SC won in a blowout, same thing happened in final. Amazing ppl keep playing this what if story I guess it's to seize the pain of losing but I'm into reality and what happened. Aubrey Griffin people make her out to be a top player in cbb, she's a nice role utility player but to say she woulda been the difference in cutting down the nets is just silly.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Off the top of my head, programs who've made Final Fours with 0 or very few HS AAs. Some of these might be wrong :
-2021 Arizona (Cate Reese was their only McDonalds AA I believe)
-2018 Mississippi State (0 McDonald's AAs)
-2017 Mississippi State (0)
-2016 Oregon State (0)
-2016 Syracuse (Sykes and Butler were McDonald's AAs)

2016 Washington surprisingly had 2, although Katie Collier was one of those head scratching kind of selections.

 

[JellyBean]

"How many do you need to make a final four run? Do you need at least one to make a final four run? Can a team sign multiple top tens during a three year period and fail to make a final four run? Differences in 1s and 10s? 1s and 5s? Oother observations and comments? Observations? Does the portal make it irrelevant?"

1). Having a Top 10 prospect helps but a lot depends on the supporting cast of teammates.
2). Do you need at least one to make a FF run? Again, a lot depends on that prospect and what is surrounding them in terms of support and how they are blended together and the coaching philosophy.
3). Can a team sign multiple top tens during a three year period and fail to make a FF run? Yes. If you are lucky to sign a solid top ten list over a three year span, there may be injuries that could happen to throw off the rhythm and chemistry of a team. Which can prevent FF runs.
4). Difference in 1s & 10s and 1s and 5s? Yes. Always a difference. Sometimes huge differences and sometimes very small differences but you we know it when we see it.
5). Does the portal make it irrelevant? Yes & No.

 

[nwhoopfan]

I got mixed up there. McD AA aren't synonymous with Top 10 prospects. I think UW had 0 top 10 players on their FF team.

 

[TeamFirst!]

I think a generational level player, in itself, is a huge factor. For example, Larry Bird and the rag tag Indiana State supporting cast. Danny Manning and Kansas. I get that Larry Bird never won the college NC but he got to the final game with almost no help. You could make a case that Boston is that right now and probably will be next year as well. A healthy Paige might be next year.

 

[bballnut90]

this list tells me that Uconn whiffed badly in recruiting in 2019 and I think they paid the price this final. Just getting 1 or 2 of those top 10 recruits mighta helped in the final.

UCONN had the horses...no one in women's basketball comes close to matching the HS rankings that UCONN had. On this roster they had 3 of the 4 #1 recruits playing women's college basketball, a #2 recruit from 2017, and two #5 recruits. SC was second in terms of stock piling highly ranked kids, and for comparison they had two #3s, two #4s, a #5, a #10 and a #11.

 

[bballnut90]

I think a generational level player, in itself, is a huge factor. For example, Larry Bird and the rag tag Indiana State supporting cast. Danny Manning and Kansas. I get that Larry Bird never won the college NC but he got to the final game with almost no help. You could make a case that Boston is that right now and probably will be next year as well. A healthy Paige might be next year.

I'm not sure I'd call compare SC's supporting cast to a group you describe as rag tag, nor UCONN's. Both have probably the strongest supporting casts in the country when you look at how player contribute on both sides of the ball.

 

[jchusky]

UCONN had the horses...no one in women's basketball comes close to matching the HS rankings that UCONN had. On this roster they had 3 of the 4 #1 recruits playing women's college basketball, a #2 recruit from 2017, and two #5 recruits. SC was second in terms of stock piling highly ranked kids, and for comparison they had two #3s, two #4s, a #5, a #10 and a #11.

what is the key tho in those recruiting classes? SC hit it out of the park with the 2019 class.

 

[UHF]

Raven Johnson was hurt why do ppl always seem to forget that? The 1st meeting in November there were no injuries SC won in a blowout, same thing happened in final. Amazing ppl keep playing this what if story I guess it's to seize the pain of losing but I'm into reality and what happened. Aubrey Griffin people make her out to be a top player in cbb, she's a nice role utility player but to say she woulda been the difference in cutting down the nets is just silly.

First game has no bearing on the second game.

UConn lost 3 straight games to Notre Dame in 2012-2013 season. UConn defeated ND in the Final Four semi-final. Then defeated Louisville in the National Championship.

/thread

 

[huskyd]

Recruits can be summed up in one sentence: Whoever has Aliyah Boston wins. (Everything else is just noise.)