How big is the gulf b/w UConn and everyone else?

[Suebird10fan]

I have often thought, over the years, that many UConn fans fail to appreciate how wide the gulf sometimes is between UConn and the rest of WCBB.

In one sense I think everyone understands. But I don't think we always fully appreciate what it means to be 10, 15, 20 points better than everyone else.

My guess is that right now UConn is 15 to 20 points better than the next best team. (I happen to think that is ND, not SC, but that is neither here nor there).

Here's some perspective on what it means to be 15 or 20 points better than the next best team. All of this is based on Sagarin's predictive ratings. You can quibble with the precise ratings, but it's hard to argue with the gist of this.

15 points
In the NBA that is slightly larger than the gap between the 2nd best team and the 2nd to last, e.g. Atlanta vs. the Knicks.

In MCBB 15 points is the gap between #1 (Ky) and #27 (Arkansas). Using Sagarin, I also estimate that it would be the gap between a #3 seed in the tournament and a #14 seed.

20 points
In the NBA that is the gap between the best team (Golden State) and the worst (Philly). Think about that! If UConn is 20 points better than the rest of WCBB (a bit of a stretch perhaps, but arguable) then UConn vs. #2 is like the best team in the NBA vs. the worst team!

In MCBB 20 points is the gap between the best team and #65, i.e. the gap between the best team and a team that doesn't even make it into the tournament! I also estimate that 20 points is the gap between a #2 seed and a #15 seed.

Now none of this guarantees that Geno gets #10. Injuries and fluke games happen. But some year's the gulf between UConn and everyone else is just mind numbing. This year I think a lot of it is that the other teams that will get #1 seeds aren't as good as #1 seeds usually are--a bit of a down year in that respect. But most of it is that UConn is just that good.

Enjoy it folks!

 

[Sonny44]

I

I have often thought, over the years, that many UConn fans fail to appreciate how wide the gulf sometimes is between UConn and the rest of WCBB.

In one sense I think everyone understands. But I don't think we always fully appreciate what it means to be 10, 15, 20 points better than everyone else.

My guess is that right now UConn is 15 to 20 points better than the next best team. (I happen to think that is ND, not SC, but that is neither here nor there).

Here's some perspective on what it means to be 15 or 20 points better than the next best team. All of this is based on Sagarin's predictive ratings. You can quibble with the precise ratings, but it's hard to argue with the gist of this.

15 points
In the NBA that is slightly larger than the gap between the 2nd best team and the 2nd to last, e.g. Atlanta vs. the Knicks.

In MCBB 15 points is the gap between #1 (Ky) and #27 (Arkansas). Using Sagarin, I also estimate that it would be the gap between a #3 seed in the tournament and a #14 seed.

20 points
In the NBA that is the gap between the best team (Golden State) and the worst (Philly). Think about that! If UConn is 20 points better than the rest of WCBB (a bit of a stretch perhaps, but arguable) then UConn vs. #2 is like the best team in the NBA vs. the worst team!

In MCBB 20 points is the gap between the best team and #65, i.e. the gap between the best team and a team that doesn't even make it into the tournament! I also estimate that 20 points is the gap between a #2 seed and a #15 seed.

Now none of this guarantees that Geno gets #10. Injuries and fluke games happen. But some year's the gulf between UConn and everyone else is just mind numbing. This year I think a lot of it is that the other teams that will get #1 seeds aren't as good as #1 seeds usually are--a bit of a down year in that respect. But most of it is that UConn is just that good.

Enjoy it folks
Gulf? I'm thinking Mexico.

 

[Husky25]

not as wide as it was last year.

 

[UcMiami]

It is interesting. I do check the Sagarin numbers periodically and I do not remember any year where the:
Rating # gap was over 5 between #1 and #2 - it stands at 7.61
Golden Mean was over 12 - now 16.55 (ND by the way)
Predictor over 12 - now 14.79 (ND as well)
Elo Scoreover 2 - now 3.45

Those are just huge. Last year was a big gap, but this year is monumental. (Last year ND was also undefeated and rarely challenged until the finals so that is why the numbers didn't get so big.)

 

[meyers7]

Bigger than Tonkin, but not quite Mexico.

 

[meyers7]

It is interesting. I do check the Sagarin numbers periodically and I do not remember any year where the:
Rating # gap was over 5 between #1 and #2 - it stands at 7.61
Golden Mean was over 12 - now 16.55 (ND by the way)
Predictor over 12 - now 14.79 (ND as well)
Elo Scoreover 2 - now 3.45

Those are just huge. Last year was a big gap, but this year is monumental. (Last year ND was also undefeated and rarely challenged until the finals so that is why the numbers didn't get so big.)

I think that may be because, this years WBB is down a bit. An example would be the Senior class (draft).

 

[UcMiami]

Agree Meyers but for one team to not be 'down' vs the rest of the country is still very notable especially given that team suffered a loss vs the 2014 version that was undefeated.
Truth is that every team has stumbled badly this year - even SC who hadn't lost but had struggled mightily in a few games. Baylor seeking out a win against TX is another example.

 

[Suebird10fan]

It is interesting. I do check the Sagarin numbers periodically and I do not remember any year where the:
Rating # gap was over 5 between #1 and #2 - it stands at 7.61
Golden Mean was over 12 - now 16.55 (ND by the way)
Predictor over 12 - now 14.79 (ND as well)
Elo Scoreover 2 - now 3.45

Those are just huge. Last year was a big gap, but this year is monumental. (Last year ND was also undefeated and rarely challenged until the finals so that is why the numbers didn't get so big.)

They are huge, but these numbers sometimes UNDERstate the gap for two reasons:
1. UConn typically doesn't run the score up in the 2nd half in non-competitive games, which is most of their games. This tends to lower their Sagarin/Massey rating.
2. Sagarin and Massey have an adjustment to minimize the impact of blowout games, which again hurts UConn.

That said, the impact of all of this has been lower this year than in some year's in the past. I think the 14.79/16.55 from Golden Mean and Predictor is in the right ballpark.

 

[CocoHusky]

I have often thought, over the years, that many UConn fans fail to appreciate how wide the gulf sometimes is between UConn and the rest of WCBB.

In one sense I think everyone understands. But I don't think we always fully appreciate what it means to be 10, 15, 20 points better than everyone else.

My guess is that right now UConn is 15 to 20 points better than the next best team. (I happen to think that is ND, not SC, but that is neither here nor there).

Here's some perspective on what it means to be 15 or 20 points better than the next best team. All of this is based on Sagarin's predictive ratings. You can quibble with the precise ratings, but it's hard to argue with the gist of this.

15 points
In the NBA that is slightly larger than the gap between the 2nd best team and the 2nd to last, e.g. Atlanta vs. the Knicks.

In MCBB 15 points is the gap between #1 (Ky) and #27 (Arkansas). Using Sagarin, I also estimate that it would be the gap between a #3 seed in the tournament and a #14 seed.

20 points
In the NBA that is the gap between the best team (Golden State) and the worst (Philly). Think about that! If UConn is 20 points better than the rest of WCBB (a bit of a stretch perhaps, but arguable) then UConn vs. #2 is like the best team in the NBA vs. the worst team!

In MCBB 20 points is the gap between the best team and #65, i.e. the gap between the best team and a team that doesn't even make it into the tournament! I also estimate that 20 points is the gap between a #2 seed and a #15 seed.

Now none of this guarantees that Geno gets #10. Injuries and fluke games happen. But some year's the gulf between UConn and everyone else is just mind numbing. This year I think a lot of it is that the other teams that will get #1 seeds aren't as good as #1 seeds usually are--a bit of a down year in that respect. But most of it is that UConn is just that good.

Enjoy it folks!

While Stewie is in uniform:
Home game vs. AAC or Unranked Team -40-50 Points
Away game vs. AAC or Unranked Team -30-40 Points
Home game vs. Top (2-10) Team - 15-30 Points
Away game against Top (2-10) Team-12-25 Points
Home game vs Top (11-25) Team 25-35 Points
Away game vs Top (11-25) Team 25-35 Points
NCAA Tournament -Round 3 up until Regional -15-20 Points
NCAA Final 4 - 10-15 Points
Totally Dominant! Making this bold prediction Stewie will end up losing a total of 1 game in her last 3 years in a UCONN uniform.

 

[HuskyPhan]

CoCo, I like your numbers up til the NCAA tourney. In the Sweet 16 and Great 8 games, I still see 20-30 point victories and in the Final Four, I'm anticipating 15-25pt victories with the only sliding factor being how hot we are from 3pt land. There is such an incredible drop off not only from #1 to #2, but even more to #'s 5-16! And on your last prediction regarding Stewie, I truly believed at the start of this year that she would never feel defeat again in a UCONN uniform. After the Stanford game and witnessing the ND and SC games firsthand, I'm now 100% convinced she will not lose again as a Husky. I'm thoroughly enjoying this year's run, but I can't help but think about how ridiculously good next years team will be!!

 

[EricLA]

How big is the gulf b/w UConn and everyone else?

Ever been to the Grand Canyon? I'd say about that big...

 

[Woof 101]

How big is the gulf b/w UConn and everyone else?

Ever been to the Grand Canyon? I'd say about that big...

Sad but somewhat true, we can only hope what was supposed to start changing a decade ago will do so soon. As much as nobody on this site would want to admit it this is not good for the game or our team.

 

[CocoHusky]

CoCo, I like your numbers up til the NCAA tourney. In the Sweet 16 and Great 8 games, I still see 20-30 point victories and in the Final Four, I'm anticipating 15-25pt victories with the only sliding factor being how hot we are from 3pt land. There is such an incredible drop off not only from #1 to #2, but even more to #'s 5-16! And on your last prediction regarding Stewie, I truly believed at the start of this year that she would never feel defeat again in a UCONN uniform. After the Stanford game and witnessing the ND and SC games firsthand, I'm now 100% convinced she will not lose again as a Husky. I'm thoroughly enjoying this year's run, but I can't help but think about how ridiculously good next years team will be!!

Agree completely. No sense debating the numbers -let's just enjoy the ride.

 

[EricLA]

Sad but somewhat true, we can only hope what was supposed to start changing a decade ago will do so soon. As much as nobody on this site would want to admit it this is not good for the game or our team.

What's not good about it? What you believe (which you are entitled to) is another myth perpetuated by people who don't like UCONN (mostly started by orange fans I would think).

Why is UCONN being way better than anyone else bad for the game? It's not like this will last forever. Last year undefeated UCONN faced undefeated ND in the NC game. Ratings were sky high. When UCONN has a perfect season, it's all over ESPN. When UCONN had its' 90+ game winning streak, it was all over ESPN. UCONN blew out SC and yet it was a very well "watched" game from an eyeballs perspective. And not just locally in Connecticut...

I would say that a UCONN juggernaut is actually good for the game because if you have a bunch of simply above average teams, it's not nearly as newsworthy. Who cares about a NC game between aTm and ND? Or Baylor and Michigan State?

Look at all the press Kentucky men are getting as they are undefeated. Think that's bad for the game? I guarantee you if UCONN were still undefeated, there would be even MORE publicity about our team. You don't think that may help young girl hoops players and their families tune in to see UCONN play and try to understand why they are so good?

If you want to believe that it's not good for the game, that's up to you of course. If you want to claim that "As much as nobody on this site would want to admit it", you would need to provide some empirical evidence to support that claim IMHO... For me, I just don't buy that a great UCONN is "bad for the game".

Griner's 40-0 season when Baylor and Griner/Simms dominated - that was everywhere in the news. Was that bad for the game? No way. If it is a story and creates interest then it's good for the game.

 

[triaddukefan]

Too big, way too big

 

[John Glass]

 

[alexrgct]

Well, if, if, IF UConn wins the NC this year, it would be the fifth in seven seasons. Tennessee's best was five in 10 seasons (1989-98). Nothing else is even comparable...and of course, Uconn has another five in 10 seasons (1995-2004).

It's still not a given, but likely, that UConn makes the Final Four for an eighth consecutive season. That's beyond unheard of. It's incomprehensible...almost. Now, try to comprehend a ninth consecutive appearance in the Final Four is pretty likely in 2016.

UConn has been drubbing all opposition since the bizarre Stanford loss. Could the Huskies suffer another equally bizarre loss? I suppose anything is possible. But this UConn team has an identity now. There are a lot of weapons, each of them capable of propelling her team to decisive victory.

On Monday,a group four kids on their own beat the then-#1 team in the country by a combined score of 78-62. That's UConn in 2014-15

And there may not be a finer representation of how wide the gulf is.

 

[rocky rococo]

Sad but somewhat true, we can only hope what was supposed to start changing a decade ago will do so soon. As much as nobody on this site would want to admit it this is not good for the game or our team.

I don't really buy that, out of personal experience. I became a basketball fan when Red Auerbach was with the Celts and John Wooden was at UCLA. Both of those dynasties were more dominant than UConn wbb, and inspired me with the idea of excellence.

 

[Woof 101]

No spitting match Eric, but what I said went right over your head. If you think a canyons gap between teams in any sport at any level is good, you are simply enamored with your team with no interest for the sport itself.
Yes I always want our team to win but the lack of competition is hurting the bottom line. That being interest in the sport. Geno has said the same in the past, maybe you would accept it from him. It would be a smaller pill.

 

[triaddukefan]

What's not good about it? What you believe (which you are entitled to) is another myth perpetuated by people who don't like UCONN (mostly started by orange fans I would think).

Why is UCONN being way better than anyone else bad for the game? It's not like this will last forever. Last year undefeated UCONN faced undefeated ND in the NC game. Ratings were sky high. When UCONN has a perfect season, it's all over ESPN. When UCONN had its' 90+ game winning streak, it was all over ESPN. UCONN blew out SC and yet it was a very well "watched" game from an eyeballs perspective. And not just locally in Connecticut...

I would say that a UCONN juggernaut is actually good for the game because if you have a bunch of simply above average teams, it's not nearly as newsworthy. Who cares about a NC game between aTm and ND? Or Baylor and Michigan State?

Look at all the press Kentucky men are getting as they are undefeated. Think that's bad for the game? I guarantee you if UCONN were still undefeated, there would be even MORE publicity about our team. You don't think that may help young girl hoops players and their families tune in to see UCONN play and try to understand why they are so good?

If you want to believe that it's not good for the game, that's up to you of course. If you want to claim that "As much as nobody on this site would want to admit it", you would need to provide some empirical evidence to support that claim IMHO... For me, I just don't buy that a great UCONN is "bad for the game".

Griner's 40-0 season when Baylor and Griner/Simms dominated - that was everywhere in the news. Was that bad for the game? No way. If it is a story and creates interest then it's good for the game.

Actually, the only two championship games I've watched in their entirety in the past 15 years or so were the 2006 (duke/md) and the 2011 (tamu/nd) games.... but then again... Im a bit different I would have watched 2013 Baylor vs UCONN..... but Louisville messed up those plans.

 

[Vowelguy]

It is interesting. I do check the Sagarin numbers periodically and I do not remember any year where

Sagarin modified his formula a year or 2 ago. He used to have 2 components -- Predictor and an Elo-type measure. Now it's Predictor, Golden Mean, and Elo.

 

[Vowelguy]

I don't really buy that, out of personal experience. I became a basketball fan when Red Auerbach was with the Celts and John Wooden was at UCLA. Both of those dynasties were more dominant than UConn wbb, and inspired me with the idea of excellence.

More dominant?
I wasnt around for the Celts/UCLA runs, but I would bet they had more competitive games per season than UConn has had.

 

[j66kicker]

I would like to see more competition, and it will be good for the sport as long as the others get better. I believe there are those who would like to see UCONN not be so good. Regressing toward mediocrity won't do the sport any good.

 

[rocky rococo]

More dominant?
I wasnt around for the Celts/UCLA runs, but I would bet they had more competitive games per season than UConn has had.

If by dominance we mean the number of championships in a given stretch of years, absolutely. UCLA had 7 consecutive championships, including that 88-game winning streak, and at the height of the Red/Russ era, the Celts took 9 NBA championships in 11 years. These were also more or less simultaneous phenomena, and thus set the tone of this sort of dominance being the natural state of affairs in hoops.

 

[mhshuskies]

As Stewie said "I think it speaks for itself"