Gonzaga Nerd Preview

[auror]

The Big 3
KenPom season-long stats.

On/Off vs. Top 200 opponents with garbage time filtered out. Courtesy of Hoop-Explorer.

So by RAPM, Gonzaga's 3 best players are their center, PF, and wing. But it's a bit of a surprise at the top, as Anton Watson rates out as their most impactful player. Timme is their best offensive player, but Watson's defense pushes him over the top. If we had to pick one guy to get foul trouble, it might be Watson. Their team defense and especially defensive rebounding tanks when he's out (aside from rebounding, they foul more often and force less turnovers). He has some range, but attempts only 1 or 2 per game from deep. More effectively, he shoots 66% on his 2s on decent volume. He's a very adept offensive rebounder. His steal rate as a power forward is extremely high. Bad FT shooter.

Drew Timme is a top 8 offensive player in the entire country (and #2 in KenPom's POTY ranking), but a turnstile on defense. The team is 14 points / 100 pos better on defense with him off the court. But when he's in, they get shots at the rim a lot more and convert at a high rate. Timme plays a lot of minutes, so I'm sure there's some wonkiness in the OFF sample (lineups for fouling or getting fouled at end of games, winning by a bunch against 100-200 ranked teams, etc.). So I trust the RAPM and being 5th in PORPAGATUI! much more than the ON/OFF splits as to his value.

Zags and their opponents are surprisingly similar in their shooting splits when flamethrower Julian Strawther is in or out, but he helps them draw more fouls, rebound, and his gravity opens up more chances at the rim. Defensively he rates out as pretty average, but has the team's leading DReb%. He shoots 42% from 3 on high volume (5+ attempts per game), with range out to the 'S' in the March Madnes'S' logo (as seen in the UCLA ending). Like all 3 of these players, he keeps his mistakes to a minimum. He scores efficiently at all 3 levels. He'd be the best offensive player and focal point on 99% of the teams in the country.

 

[auror]

The Guards
KenPom season-long stats.

On/Off vs. Top 200 opponents with garbage time filtered out. Courtesy of Hoop-Explorer.

Gonzaga just has a mess of 4 guards they trot out to play the 1 and 2 (and some minutes of backup 3). Hickman starts and plays the majority of minutes at the 1, and Bolton starts and splits time at the 2. Sallis and Smith just kinda split backup time between the guard spots and the 3.

Rasir Bolton rates out as the best offensive and defensive player of the bunch. Malachi Smith is shooting 50% from 3 on the year on Giffey-esque volume and to my eye he needs more minutes. Nolan Hickman has the lowest RAPM of them all despite getting the most minutes. Hunter Sallis is pretty mid, despite being a 5* last season.

None of the guards has an assist rate over 16, and Timme actually leads the team in assist rate. They're like us in that they move the ball as a team and PG is by committee. Also none of them really turn it over too egregiously. Sallis is the worst shooter of the bunch, both by accuracy and volume. He's the only non-big you can play off of. Smith is not only the best perimeter shooter, but also best interior finisher. None of their guards get to the line very often, but Hickman especially is allergic to it.

 

[auror]

Lineup data courtesy Hoop-Explorer.

Like I said before, I don't know why Malachi Smith doesn't play more. He shut down Tyger Campbell in the 2nd half against UCLA also, but then again, I guess he did play the 4th most minutes in that one, so I guess we should be prepared for Few to play his best lineups in the tourny.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

 

[caw]

UConn recruited Sallis a bit, thought he would be better by now TBH.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Timme will get his on offense, and I'm especially concerned about Clingan trying to defend him, but will also give up a lot on the other end.

If we can get a wash out of the Timme/Sanogo matchup, we should have enough advantage elsewhere.

This Gonzaga team can score, but unlike previous teams, are pretty mediocre on D.

 

[ctchamps]

I got your back @auror

You are the way!

 

[Stinger92860]

Could a zone be effective in spurts? I am concerned about Timme creating foul trouble for AS and DC. Strawther is a guy who could hurt us from deep, but beyond him I’m not sure they will hurt us.

Another way to handle this is to feed AS and go at Timme.

 

[husky429]

Could a zone be effective in spurts? I am concerned about Timme creating foul trouble for AS and DC. Strawther is a guy who could hurt us from deep, but beyond him I’m not sure they will hurt us.

Another way to handle this is to feed AS and go at Timme.

Way too good shooting the rock to risk a 2-3. Possibly could see a 1-3-1, but I doubt it.

 

[Hurleyman216]

Timme will get his on offense, and I'm especially concerned about Clingan trying to defend him, but will also give up a lot on the other end.

If we can get a wash out of the Timme/Sanogo matchup, we should have enough advantage elsewhere.

This Gonzaga team can score, but unlike previous teams, are pretty mediocre on D.

I’m actually more concerned about Sanogo on defense than Clingan. You have to remember Clingan practices against Sanogo everyday. Sanogo and Timme have very similar back to the basket type footwork and spin moves. Sanogo hasn’t had the luxury of guarding himself in practice. It should be interesting because Sanogo has very quick feet and has better foot speed and is built thicker than Timme. That alone may frustrate him, but then bringing in our 7’2” monster might just frustrate him even more. If we get him flustered and missing shots he normally makes we could blow this open just like the Arkansas game

 

[auror]

I’m actually more concerned about Sanogo on defense than Clingan. You have to remember Clingan practices against Sanogo everyday. Sanogo and Timme have very similar back to the basket type footwork and spin moves. Sanogo hasn’t had the luxury of guarding himself in practice. It should be interesting because Sanogo has very quick feet and has better foot speed and is built thicker than Timme. That alone may frustrate him, but then bringing in our 7’2” monster might just frustrate him even more. If we get him flustered and missing shots he normally makes we could blow this open just like the Arkansas game

Yeah should be fascinating. Like the Clingan practice thought. Sanogo has more experience but we havent played many finesse/skilled bigs in his career. It's a dying breed.

 

[TeasenDonut]

Sanogo needs to use his strength to push Timme off his spots and deny him the ball

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I think the best approach would be to once again change up a little from what we've been all year.

If we try to be too perfect on defense against Timme, we can end up with both centers in foul trouble. Timme will get some points (more than we normally would like to allow) but he alone can't beat us unless he also takes two very important players out of the game.

Our normally overly aggressive approach on defense may need to be toned down somewhat.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Sanogo needs to use his strength to push Timme off his spots and deny him the ball

Agreed, make Timme start from further out and have to work hard every possession for position and use his 3rd + move to get a shot off. Key is to not foul if/when Timme inevitably gets a drop step past Sanogo - he's going to get a few points and make them hard but do not foul him after you are beaten.

 

[AntG168]

The key to stopping Timme is to attack him on the other end. We need to seek him out in post up opportunities and put him in position to have to guard the ball handler in pick and rolls. He can’t and won’t do it. They’ll start to over help and we’ll blow the game open

 

[SubbaBub]

Defending the perimeter is the key. Rebounding and not fouling are next. I think Sanogo can limit Timme more than the other way around so long as he doesn't overestimate his position on the block.

Worried about Strawthers range as it could hurt our dribible drive defense. Not really worried about the inside battle other than fouls.

 

[Rewster]

Timme is the most important player. If we want anybody in foul trouble it is him. The problem is Sanogo doesn’t create enough contact for that to likely happen. The offense flows thru Timme. He a very good passer and obviously can create his own shot. Hopefullly we can play him straight up by eliminating how deep he gets on the block.
If we double he will find the open man.

UCLA ran out of gas the last game and had no big guy that could score . I think Timme had only 1 foul the whole game.

 

[August_West]

Yeah should be fascinating. Like the Clingan practice thought. Sanogo has more experience but we havent played many finesse/skilled bigs in his career. It's a dying breed.

 

[auror]

The key to stopping Timme is to attack him on the other end. We need to seek him out in post up opportunities and put him in position to have to guard the ball handler in pick and rolls. He can’t and won’t do it. They’ll start to over help and we’ll blow the game open

He's an atrocious pick and roll defender, can't guard in space at all if he switches. But unfotunately that's not really our game. I'm sure we'll have Newton do it more than usual, though, anyways. And hopefully we kill him with Clingan rolling, should be able to throw it right over the top. Just have to watch for the corner man (like Anton) rolling in to disrupt. That's when we make the corner pass instead for an open 3 from Karaban.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

He's an atrocious pick and roll defender, can't guard in space at all if he switches. But unfotunately that's not really our game. I'm sure we'll have Newton do it more than usual, though, anyways. And hopefully we kill him with Clingan rolling, should be able to throw it right over the top. Just have to watch for the corner man (like Anton) rolling in to disrupt. That's when we make the corner pass instead for an open 3 from Karaban.

It feels like Timme tends to get very off-balance on defense and bites on a lot of moves in the post. I know Sanogo has a tendency to shy away from contact, but if I'm Hurley, I'm working with Sanogo on creating contact when Timme bites. We have a lot more ability to withstand and manage foul trouble down low than Gonzaga.

 

[Stinger92860]

Sanogo needs to use his strength to push Timme off his spots and deny him the ball

With these refs that could lead to fouls.

 

[Stinger92860]

It feels like Timme tends to get very off-balance on defense and bites on a lot of moves in the post. I know Sanogo has a tendency to shy away from contact, but if I'm Hurley, I'm working all week with Sanogo on creating contact when Timme bites. We have a lot more ability to withstand and manage foul trouble down low than Gonzaga.

AS shy of contact? All week to work? We have less than 36 hours to tip.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

AS shy of contact? All week to work? We have less than 36 hours to tip.

Sorry, time until tip. And yes, Sanogo definitely has a tendency to shy away from contact on his shot attempts.

 

[dennismenace]

Could a zone be effective in spurts? I am concerned about Timme creating foul trouble for AS and DC. Strawther is a guy who could hurt us from deep, but beyond him I’m not sure they will hurt us.

Another way to handle this is to feed AS and go at Timme.

Is it conceivable that Jackson could be used on Timme? Timme's a few inches taller but he can fill it up on the drive or from deep. I don't see the AS/DC bigs being able to contain him on the outside, He seems by far to be the biggest threat offensively. Jackson could be on him from the outside and get help from one of the centers if necessary on the drive. Need to contain Timme as much as possible.

 

[huskiesNhoos]

The Big 3
KenPom season-long stats.


On/Off vs. Top 200 opponents with garbage time filtered out. Courtesy of Hoop-Explorer.

So by RAPM, Gonzaga's 3 best players are their center, PF, and wing. But it's a bit of a surprise at the top, as Anton Watson rates out as their most impactful player. Timme is their best offensive player, but Watson's defense pushes him over the top. If we had to pick one guy to get foul trouble, it might be Watson. Their team defense and especially defensive rebounding tanks when he's out (aside from rebounding, they foul more often and force less turnovers). He has some range, but attempts only 1 or 2 per game from deep. More effectively, he shoots 66% on his 2s on decent volume. He's a very adept offensive rebounder. His steal rate as a power forward is extremely high. Bad FT shooter.

Drew Timme is a top 8 offensive player in the entire country (and #2 in KenPom's POTY ranking), but a turnstile on defense. The team is 14 points / 100 pos better on defense with him off the court. But when he's in, they get shots at the rim a lot more and convert at a high rate. Timme plays a lot of minutes, so I'm sure there's some wonkiness in the OFF sample (lineups for fouling or getting fouled at end of games, winning by a bunch against 100-200 ranked teams, etc.). So I trust the RAPM and being 5th in PORPAGATUI! much more than the ON/OFF splits as to his value.

Zags and their opponents are surprisingly similar in their shooting splits when flamethrower Julian Strawther is in or out, but he helps them draw more fouls, rebound, and his gravity opens up more chances at the rim. Defensively he rates out as pretty average, but has the team's leading DReb%. He shoots 42% from 3 on high volume (5+ attempts per game), with range out to the 'S' in the March Madnes'S' logo (as seen in the UCLA ending). Like all 3 of these players, he keeps his mistakes to a minimum. He scores efficiently at all 3 levels. He'd be the best offensive player and focal point on 99% of the teams in the country.