Fox - Big East exclusive negotiating window

[superjohn]

The B1G and SEC have viewed this as entirely a battle of financial attrition. Each has been slowly, systematically adding schools and further distancing themselves from the rest of D1 (P level and H level). The end result will be tier one the two above conferences 22-24 members schools each, receiving 80%+ media exposure and revenues. Tier two ACC and B-12, 12-14 schools each, fighting over ~16%-18% of media exposure and revenues. Everyone else, hoping the remaining scraps are sufficient to generate some excitement. We need to participate in a number of payday games in revenue sports to survive.

The Big 10 and SEC are going to break away for football. You talk about this grand plan and still think they'll keep the other conferences around. Once they add those few ACC football brands that are left they will have every football brand that matters and break off.

 

[superjohn]

SJ,

Question for you: in your opinion, how likely is it that Nova's next head coach will bring them a national title?

It depends on who they hire but I don't think Nova is done winning national championships.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

The Big 10 and SEC are going to break away for football.

No they are not. Every school that knows they cannot compete in football with members of the two above conferences is praying that this is what will happen but it would make no sense for those two conferences to do this.

They can accomplish everything they are after by remaining in the NCAA and merely increasing the financial disparity between them and everyone else. I'll believe they break away for football the day it happens as there would be no benefit to them by doing this.

 

[AllHusky]

No they are not. Every school that knows they cannot compete in football with members of the two above conferences is praying that this is what will happen but it would make no sense for those two conferences to do this.

They can accomplish everything they are after by remaining in the NCAA and merely increasing the financial disparity between them and everyone else. I'll believe they break away for football the day it happens as there would be no benefit to them by doing this.

Agreed
The breakaway model creates too many unknowns, many of which are potentially of a legal nature. They can accomplish all their goals under the auspices of the NCAA. The benefit to breaking away may be exceeded by unknown costs.

 

[Ha Who]

Agreed
The breakaway model creates too many unknowns, many of which are potentially of a legal nature. They can accomplish all their goals under the auspices of the NCAA. The benefit to breaking away may be exceeded by unknown costs.

I kind of agree with you. While the Big and SEC unlike the ACC have been more strategic in their moves. They are still basically fools in the academia bubble. They are a flush with money and power, but don’t quite understand how they got there. See government as an example if you don’t understand the academia bubble or look at those presidents who recently testified before Congress to see the reality they live in every day

 

[ScottVib]

People keep bringing up Congress… but What politician is going to stand in the way of the major universities in their state from doing what they want?

There isn’t a critical mass of states who’d be “left behind” to get anything done.. and even if there was just enough you’d need support from both sides of Congress and getting alignment between the two sides to do something is incredibly unlikely.

Are Oregon & Washington’s senators going to standup and hurt Oregon and Washington’s athletic programs to help Wazzou and Oregon St?

Let’s say the P2 leaves. You have what Utah, Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Massachusetts & New York (if they care about the private universities), probably UConn given the schools history. If you add in states that have only G5 schools you add in Nevada, New Mexico, Idaho, Wyoming & now Delaware.

What other states have congressional support to jump in? Even that blend of up to 22 senators would require bi-partisan cooperation.

There is almost no chance Congress is getting involved, there just won’t be enough of a public outcry outside of the few areas where the biggest schools are on the outside.

 

[billybud]

The P2 can get away with leaving, The P5 already pretty much left the NCAA in football when they became The Autonomous Five....

The NCAA has abdicated football playoffs, bowl games....so just another slide down the slope.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

People keep bringing up Congress… but What politician is going to stand in the way of the major universities in their state from doing what they want?

There isn’t a critical mass of states who’d be “left behind” to get anything done.. and even if there was just enough you’d need support from both sides of Congress and getting alignment between the two sides to do something is incredibly unlikely.

Are Oregon & Washington’s senators going to standup and hurt Oregon and Washington’s athletic programs to help Wazzou and Oregon St?

Let’s say the P2 leaves. You have what Utah, Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Massachusetts & New York (if they care about the private universities), probably UConn given the schools history. If you add in states that have only G5 schools you add in Nevada, New Mexico, Idaho, Wyoming & now Delaware.

What other states have congressional support to jump in? Even that blend of up to 22 senators would require bi-partisan cooperation.

There is almost no chance Congress is getting involved, there just won’t be enough of a public outcry outside of the few areas where the biggest schools are on the outside.

College sports may not exist in 5 years unless Congress gets involved. There is no legal basis for any rules for college athletics, which is rapidly turning it into chaos and will result in the enterprise falling apart.

 

[ScottVib]

College sports may not exist in 5 years unless Congress gets involved. There is no legal basis for any rules for college athletics, which is rapidly turning it into chaos and will result in the enterprise falling apart.

But what would be their reasoning to get involved? It's the "common good" for there to be collegiate athletics? In Alabama they'll happily root for the semi-pro Crimson Tide, they have for years. If the NFL thought they could come up with a model they could monetize through a soccer-esque academy system, they're going to do it regardless of what happens in the NCAA or whatever model the P2 comes up with post-breakaway. Until then the power schools are happy to scoop up as much of the revenue as possible. I think someone else mentioned it but there's the adage that "pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered" and right now the P2 is deciding just how much do they want to be pigs and share a pittance of the largess or hog it all for themselves. Past history indicates they'll eventually go after it all...

I just don't see Congress getting involved, if you're the senator from Ohio or Texas are you going to do anything that risks alienating fans of the major teams in your state not voting for you? If the P2 conferences can't see past their own greed to not kill the golden goose, Congress doesn't seem like a likely candidate to bail them out. Even if it were so inclined to hold hearing and take up the conversation with the current political environment there is about 0.1% chance of there being enough consensus to come up with a bill that would pass both houses and get signed into law.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

But what would be their reasoning to get involved? It's the "common good" for there to be collegiate athletics? In Alabama they'll happily root for the semi-pro Crimson Tide, they have for years. If the NFL thought they could come up with a model they could monetize through a soccer-esque academy system, they're going to do it regardless of what happens in the NCAA or whatever model the P2 comes up with post-breakaway. Until then the power schools are happy to scoop up as much of the revenue as possible. I think someone else mentioned it but there's the adage that "pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered" and right now the P2 is deciding just how much do they want to be pigs and share a pittance of the largess or hog it all for themselves. Past history indicates they'll eventually go after it all...

I just don't see Congress getting involved, if you're the senator from Ohio or Texas are you going to do anything that risks alienating fans of the major teams in your state not voting for you? If the P2 conferences can't see past their own greed to not kill the golden goose, Congress doesn't seem like a likely candidate to bail them out. Even if it were so inclined to hold hearing and take up the conversation with the current political environment there is about 0.1% chance of there being enough consensus to come up with a bill that would pass both houses and get signed into law.

That is not what I am talking about, although it will become an issue.

The courts are slamming the NCAA, and they will be less kind to a P4 or P2 or whatever emerges as a new governing body. As the Alston Case, and a half dozen smaller cases since have proven, the entire enterprise of college athletics is an anti-trust violation. Some of us have been saying this for 22 years on the Boneyard, and others continue to deny it is a problem despite the repeated butt whoopings the NCAA has received in court.

Congress has to pass some law that gives college athletics an anti-trust exemption, or I do not see how it exists going forward. But once Congress gets involved, anything can happen.

 

[Patman]

No, Congress doesn't have to pass such a law.

 

[CashewCrew]

When do we think we will hear the first news on an actual TV contract for the BE going forward?

 

[Husky92]

When do we think we will hear the first news on an actual TV contract for the BE going forward?

Please stop interrupting their bickering by trying to bring the thread back on topic!

 

[FfldCntyFan]

When do we think we will hear the first news on an actual TV contract for the BE going forward?

Normally this would require the standard "20 minutes" response but that may lead to further arguments.

 

[shizzle787]

The Big 10 and SEC are going to break away for football. You talk about this grand plan and still think they'll keep the other conferences around. Once they add those few ACC football brands that are left they will have every football brand that matters and break off.

They will try but the political pushback will be too much (see the European Super League).

 

[zls44]

When do we think we will hear the first news on an actual TV contract for the BE going forward?

 

[Kolumbo]

What the puck is this? ^ I probably won't subscribe but he has a nice invitation:

"But I’m most excited about spending my Saturday in the burbs, watching the local Major League Rugby team, Old Glory, host the Chicago Hounds in its home opener. I spent last night at Cap One Arena watching Syracuse lose by 18 and Clemson lose by 21."

 

[huskymedic]

 

[UConnTrumbull]

View attachment 97685

Sounds like a done deal then. Hope that strong relationship they speak of turns up in terms of dollar signs.

 

[Drew]

View attachment 97685

This is good.. still need to see the $ associated but I'm guessing it looks like this:

- FOX reduces the # of games they show but continues on with the BE essentially as is (i.e. majority of games on FS1) and keeps the BET

- CBS picks up some of FOX’s reduced inventory and maybe commits to 6 linear CBS games instead of 4

- Remaining goes to a streamer

 

[Luna]

View attachment 97685

Does he have inside information.. or is guessing

 

[Exit 4]

This is good.. still need to see the $ associated but I'm guessing it looks like this:

- FOX reduces the # of games they show but continues on with the BE essentially as is (i.e. majority of games on FS1) and keeps the BET

- CBS picks up some of FOX’s reduced inventory and maybe commits to 6 linear CBS games instead of 4

- Remaining goes to a streamer

Maybe Phase out FS2 and put that content on streaming? FS2 ratings are super low.

I guess this is great news for UConn. Linear tv is still very important.

I was hoping this negotiation would be a springing point for UConn to someplace else.

Does he have inside information.. or is guessing

He is solid, covering sports media contracts is his focus.

 

[cellocgg]

Sounds like a done deal then. Hope that strong relationship they speak of turns up in terms of dollar signs.

Narrator: "It did not"

May big brother Fox push for us in another conference

 

[Drew]

Does he have inside information.. or is guessing

John is extremely well connected in the sports media landscape- if he is stating it on the record like that it’s not him throwing darts at a wall and is certainly well sourced

 

[Drew]

Maybe Phase out FS2 and put that content on streaming? FS2 ratings are super low.

I guess this is great news for UConn. Linear tv is still very important.

I was hoping this negotiation would be a springing point for UConn to someplace else.

He is solid, covering sports media contracts is his focus.

I would very much imagine FS2 gets shuttered and that content is moved elsewhere. I can’t believe they still operate it to be honest

I think UConn will be least impacted by this from a linear games standpoint but don’t kid yourself.. this isn’t anywhere near the current state in terms of overall linear games for the entire league. And we’ll still have anywhere from 4-8 streaming only games going forwards… there’s minimums for each team in every package that gets offered to media companies.

Long story short- if you’re Providence, Butler, Xavier, etc…. get ready to learn AppleTV buddy