Florida Lobbying Big XII about UCF and USF again

[Confident Carl]

Due to the success of UCF and USF, they could be attractive to the Big XII again. My fears were made more real by yesterday's letter sent by Florida State Rep. Bobby Oliszewski to Bob Bowlsby of the Big XII.
This is nowhere near a deal but that fact that it is being discussed makes me a little nervous.

If by chance, the AAC loses these two powerful teams it will be reminiscent of the Big East/AAC losing BC, VA Tech, Miami, Pitt, WVA, Ville, Rutgers and Cuse. It would be disastrous. I doubt that replacing UCF and USF with Florida International and Florida Atlantic would make up for the loss. I have been a proponent of the AAC since day one but if by chance they lose these two, I am afraid it could hurt the AAC TV negotiations. Maybe this will never happen but the fact that it is being talked about should be cause for concern. The AAC executives need to formulate a proactive and attractive plan now. Nothing would surprise me.



Paging Bob Bowlsby: UCF and USF will see you now

 

[Exit 4]

It’s a nightmare scenario. I don’t want to think about it.

 

[shizzle787]

It would suck, but we wouldn't replace them with anybody. And we would lose USF as a basketball opponent.

 

[Fishy]

Bowlsby won’t even read it.

The Big 12 controls its own destiny as much as we do - the networks won’t pay for expansion so they can’t expand.

 

[buddy]

Bowlsby won’t even read it.

The Big 12 controls its own destiny as much as we do - the networks won’t pay for expansion so they can’t expand.

If I remember correctly, our beloved ESPN advised them not to expand last time in their letter "supporting" UConn!

 

[whaler11]

lol

 

[huskymedic]

lol

Can you draft a letter on behalf of the Boneyard?

 

[whaler11]

Can you draft a letter on behalf of the Boneyard?

Sure but only because Karl will treat it as though it holds great power.

 

[Confident Carl]

Bowlsby won’t even read it.

The Big 12 controls its own destiny as much as we do - the networks won’t pay for expansion so they can’t expand.

But if they want to squish the P6 movement and do some damage the Big XII could make a long term play by the schools taking a short term hit. All of the sudden they are in the Florida market with FSU, Florida and Miami. Last year UCF and USF were #1 and #3 in FL

Big 12 Expansion: UCF & USF Is Still Your Answer

 

[Fishy]

I assure you that they are not sweating the ‘P6 movement’.

 

[Confident Carl]

I assure you that they are not sweating the ‘P6 movement’.

As the second article I posted stated the Big XII could strengthen their conference and make it less Texas centric by adding UCF, USF, Memphis and one more TX school Houston. Like the writer says it makes too much sense. Hope it never happens.
Poof - suddenly they have 4 potential top 25 teams added to their conference. That would be taking the heart out of the AAC.

 

[Fishy]

It doesn’t make any sense because the networks won’t underwrite the expansion.

Further, the Texas schools have no interest in making the conference ‘less Texas centric’.

No disrespect to the blogger guy, but his idea won’t survive contact with the real world.

 

[Exit 4]

I think it could work and make sense, but only when Oklahoma and Texas close the door on possibly leaving the b12 and Texas agrees to fold on their stupid tv network for a b12 channel. All of the above needs a good six more years to play out.

 

[Confident Carl]

It doesn’t make any sense because the networks won’t underwrite the expansion.

Further, the Texas schools have no interest in making the conference ‘less Texas centric’.

No disrespect to the blogger guy, but his idea won’t survive contact with the real world.

I agree with your sentiment but the play of the AAC, especially this year with UCF beating Auburn in the Peach and the de facto National Championship, USF's win over Texas Tech and Memphis's 1 point loss to Iowa State. All this coming after Houston's great season last year. Things have changed since the last Big XII expansion talks.

 

[Adios]

If Oklahoma leaves for the SEC, Texas will have no choice but to expand the Big 12. Unless they leave for another conference but it seems UT is too big and powerful for any conference.

 

[Fishy]

The problem for Oklahoma right now is that the dollars are both too big and too small.

The SEC could be paying out $55-60M at that point, but there’ll be less ability to grow with new markets.

And paying that much for the Oklahoma market has no chance of breaking even.

However....keep watching the Pac12. Their network has not taken off....but they have a network and the Big 12 doesn’t.

I think there will be at least some effort on the part of the PAC to increase their footprint at the expense of the Big 12. They might be desperate at that point.

 

[Adios]

The SEC also wants UNC. No idea how the GOR would play in. But they sure have been going nuts in NC, regardless...

Proposed bill would force North Carolina, N.C. State to leave ACC due to boycott

It's amazing how much the Pac-12 is struggling right now in major sports. UCLA did make a solid hire in Chip Kelly. Oregon's dominance is over for the forseeable future.

 

[billybud]

That North Carolina bill is pretty old news and has been resolved...by the legislature. The conference change sword rattling did not do it but the boycotts from myriads of organizations refusing to do business in North Carolina until the "bathroom bill" was rescinded, did the trick. Lose a gazillion bucks or do the "right thing".

With the GOR in place until 2036, I think that the ACC won't lose a team in the short term.

The Big 12 is between a rock and a hard place...a small footprint for a network yet no media support to expand that footprint. If Texas and Oklahoma both come on at the same time, interest in the Big 12 will grow nationally....they are in a place where they could expand pronto, if the financials ever make sense.

 

[CL82]

The SEC also wants UNC. No idea how the GOR would play in. But they sure have been going nuts in NC, regardless...

"What's that you say? UNC doesn't have their kids go to classes? That's nothin' new"

"Well yeah but when NCAA called them on it they just laughed and said 'so what?'"

"Hmm, well now that's what I'm talkin' 'bout. Get em on the phone."

 

[UConnDan97]

The problem for Oklahoma right now is that the dollars are both too big and too small.

The SEC could be paying out $55-60M at that point, but there’ll be less ability to grow with new markets.

And paying that much for the Oklahoma market has no chance of breaking even.

However....keep watching the Pac12. Their network has not taken off....but they have a network and the Big 12 doesn’t.

I think there will be at least some effort on the part of the PAC to increase their footprint at the expense of the Big 12. They might be desperate at that point.

I think this is the right answer. Keep watching the Pac12. That's been true for quite a while, I think.

In order for them to increase their footprint and marketing of their network, they have two options; 1) convince OU / Texas to join, or 2) go the much less desirable BYU / Boise route. They almost certainly don't want to do the latter, because they would have done it already.

Let's say they are able to make option 1 happen. I think a lot of folks wouldn't mind a new conference with UConn, Kansas, KState, Iowa State, Baylor, WVU, Cincy, TCU, SMU, Houston, USF, UCF, Oklahoma State, and a couple of select others (BYU?). Essentially, a two team acquisition by the Pac12 would create a P6 accidentally (well, just a different P5)...

 

[Exit 4]

I think this is the right answer. Keep watching the Pac12. That's been true for quite a while, I think.

In order for them to increase their footprint and marketing of their network, they have two options; 1) convince OU / Texas to join, or 2) go the much less desirable BYU / Boise route. They almost certainly don't want to do the latter, because they would have done it already.

Let's say they are able to make option 1 happen. I think a lot of folks wouldn't mind a new conference with UConn, Kansas, KState, Iowa State, Baylor, WVU, Cincy, TCU, SMU, Houston, USF, UCF, Oklahoma State, and a couple of select others (BYU?). Essentially, a two team acquisition by the Pac12 would create a P6 accidentally (well, just a different P5)...

I used to think the B12 remnants after a UT and OK departure would be screwed, however I think they will be able to add some combination of Houston, Cincy and USF/UCF (or all four) to hold it all together screwing us instead. Sure their new media deal will be a big step down and its power status would certainly be in question as well as bowl tie ins, but probably still better than ours (particularly if they take our FL schools). I see us losing out in this scenario as the B12 remnants will try to balance adding new high population centers with locations that are a better cultural fit and slightly closer to the original B12 footprint.

In such a scenario, I think our only way in is if the tv people overrule and force the B12 remnants to make it a "national" conference for a best media rights deal.

 

[Wolfman]

I see 3 scenarios.
1) The B12 takes UCF and USF. This takes Texas and Oklahoma off the board so Uconn and Cincy move up the ACC, B12 list.
2) The ACC and/or SEC move to keep the B12 out of Florida so Uconn and Cincy move up the B12 list.
3) The B12 decides to sleep on it and wakes up in 2312 so Uconn and Cincy move up the ACC list.

I believe ESPN/Fox told the B12, "If you want more money, we want Texas and Oklahoma guaranteed. You need to sign a 10 year (maybe longer) GoR extension so we can recoup our money." Texas and Oklahoma replied, "Bless your heart."

 

[UConnJim]

Here's the reality. The only thing wrong with the Big 12 right now is weak Texas football. When that changes, and it will, other schools will be envious of the Big 12. Why? The B12 has the best setup with 10 teams as they are the only conference that plays a true round robin format in football and basketball.

 

[huskyrob1]

The problem for Oklahoma right now is that the dollars are both too big and too small.

The SEC could be paying out $55-60M at that point, but there’ll be less ability to grow with new markets.

And paying that much for the Oklahoma market has no chance of breaking even.

However....keep watching the Pac12. Their network has not taken off....but they have a network and the Big 12 doesn’t.

I think there will be at least some effort on the part of the PAC to increase their footprint at the expense of the Big 12. They might be desperate at that point.

My thoughts as well, if the PAC 12 goes super conference, they'll grab Texas and Oklahoma. The Big 12 is not going to look at adding a Mustang and a Dodge Charger to help keep it's two Ferrari's in the garage.

 

[billybud]

The Big 12 is caught in a conundrum...

Too small of a footprint for a network....while the market forces won't pay for expansion.

I could see Oklahoma joining Nebraska and Iowa in the Big Ten West...and could see Texas joining A&M, Arkansas, Mizzou, LSU in the SEC West.