Louisville is gone. Rutgers is gone. We have UCF at home and they won't have Blake Bortles. Garrett Gilbert is gone from SMU, and we get the Mustangs at home. We play Cincy at home. We don't play Houston. We could conceivably go 8-0 in the AAC. We almost beat Michigan at home, and they're better than UCF will be next year. And we'll be much improved as well. Don't underestimate our home field advantage. If we split with BYU and Boise State, then defeat Stony Brook at home and Army at a neutral site (which we should) that gets us to 11-1.
We went 3-5 in conference last year, and I think this year's team (and the coaching staff) is better than last year's. No doubt about that. Every other team in the AAC who went 3-5 or better either plays us at the Rent, has left the conference, or in the case of Houston, doesn't play us. If not for the fact that we have UCF, Cincy, and SMU at home and don't play Houston, I'd say there is no chance we go 8-0 in conference. But the schedule lines up for us - we have the toughest teams at home, except for Houston who we don't play. Reminds me of 2010 - we were definitely helped by playing Pitt AND West Virginia at home. We have a big home field advantage. Last year's team almost beat Michigan at home and held Louisville's prolific offense to two touchdowns. If not for the touchdown off the blocked punt and the pick six, that could have been a close game as well. And as I said, this team will be much better than last year's. UCF and SMU will be worse, having lost their star quarterbacks.
As for the BCS spot, I do think an undefeated MAC or MWC team would get through ahead of us if we're 11-1, if only because the human polls count and voters love undefeated teams. And I don't think there's any chance of us getting an at-large bid since we don't have the SOS. The only way I see it happening is if both us and another G5 school go undefeated, and they get the automatic berth, but I doubt we'll have two unbeaten G5 schools. Besides, if both us and another G5 school go undefeated, I think we would get the automatic berth by having a higher SOS (and because voters perceive the AAC as better than the MAC or MWC.)