Efficiency Predictions

[diggerfoot]

We predict starters. We predict minutes. We predict production/points. What I have to see on the BY are predictions on efficiency. UConn has been about efficiency more than production, though our efficiency tends to make us productive. Here are my annotated efficiency predictions based on optimism from what has occurred in the past. What are yours?

Edwards: 60% fg/35% 3 fg/80% fs
I start with Edwards because she already shared her expectations for her own efficiency, which was a lofty 65/35/85. I certainly hope she reaches her goals, but my “optimistic” projection is based upon what she has done in the past. If the team as a whole performs well the stat line I predict will be sufficient for both a championship and Edward’s AA status.

Fudd: 55/45/90
I have never seen a 50/40/90 stat line anticipated as much as with Fudd. Her past performance shows she is capable. With a healthy season and two elite facilitators as teammates I believe this will happen.

Bueckers: 60/45/85
Based on past performance she will fall short of 50/40/90 because of foul shooting, but look at that 60% overall field goal percentage. For a guard that is phenomenal, yet past performance suggests she is capable. She was shooting that her sophomore season until injury made her less phenomenal. With a healthy season I predict she becomes phenomenal again!

Muhl: 45/40/75
Based on past performance all these efficiencies are possible for Muhl. They are quite satisfactory for a guard whose main duty is to facilitate. Some may think the 40% 3 point fg is a stretch, but that is based on the optimism that she elevated her shooting to that level near the end of her first two seasons. Why not maintain that as a senior for the whole season? Unfortunately, even that seems pedestrian considering how efficient her teammates happen to be, but if she achieves those numbers we will be in for great things.

Fifth Starter: 50/35/75
OK, so this is a cop out, since I have neither the motivation nor the knowledge to predict efficiency lines for the whole team, nor to predict who the fifth starter will even be. I think that line is achievable by each of Griffin, Ducharme, Brady or most likely some combination of the three. With Ducharme the 3 fg% might be higher, with Brady the overall fg% might be higher, but it should average out between them.

Bench: 45/35/70
Too many factors to be annotated, but if the bench can maintain this efficiency to average out with the starters we should be in good shape.

Bueckers: 3.2 assists/1 turnover
This is a measure in efficiency for facilitating, the like of which I had never seen from a freshman before Bueckers. Her A/T stat her sophomore year was actually close to 4 before injury which, combined with her 60% overall shooting for a guard, made her truly a phenom of efficiency. I don’t think 4.0 for a whole season is possible, but 3.2 is within this phenom’s reach.

Muhl: 3.0 A/T
Muhl was also flirting with a 4 A/T ratio her junior season, against good competition mind you, before the injury plagued season started to unfold. I predict she will fall short of Bueckers, but not by much. She really is elite at facilitating. And if we have two starters facilitating at 3.0 A/T our offense will be amazing!

Arnold: 2.0 A/T
Arnold’s fans may think I am shortchanging her here, but 2.0 for a freshman is really quite good! I think Arnold can do it!

Other facilitators: 1.25 A/T
Sounds low, but this will not be the bulk of the facilitating. If the three main facilitators achieve the above numbers, a 1.25 from the rest will be more than sufficient for a championship.

 

[Bone Dog]

Just curious: what do you think Aaliyah's a/t will be? Can she get to 1.0?

 

[oldhusky]

Efficiency in a variety of areas should improve for quite a few reasons. First is health. everyone comments on how many games our various players have missed, but equally important is they are not all the way back when they first return. Paige was a good but not great player after she came back late in the season two years ago. Azzi was an All American the first 6 games last year, but a shadow of herself after her injuries. Similarly Caroline last year didn't even resemble what we saw during a period when she was healthy the year before.

My point is they were adversely affected by injury in most of the games they did play for much of the last two seasons, and the impact was far more than just how many games they missed.

Another major factor is the number of shooters and passers we should have this season. With Azzi and Caroline out or less effective for much of the season, we had major stretches when we had only one serious perimeter threat on the floor in Lou. Nika and Aubrey were often the other two, one of which is an ok wide open 3pt shooter, and the other who isn't a long range threat at all, but a good slasher, runner on the break, and offensive rebounder. In essence we couldn't spread the floor well with that lineup, also hampering out ability to get the ball inside, and Lou got all the defensive attention.

This year Nika will have two great shooters on the floor to pass to in Paige and Azzi. You can't afford to sag off either, and both are not just shooters but three level scorers, as is Caroline off the bench so two should be on the floor most of the time. Azzi and Caroline in particular should also benefit from having multiple great passers not just Nika. In the likely starting lineup, Azzi will have Nika and Paige to get her the ball and Paige will probably draw the opposition's best defender and spread the floor. Another passer in KK may get time, and if Paige is running the point, you could have Caroline join Azzi and have one great passer, but now three great shooters on the floor.

Either way, whether it is more shooting or passing we have the components to be very hard to guard on the perimeter. There will be multiple players opposing coaches would like to put their best defender on but can't, the floor will be spread and the inside opened up, resulting in our bigs being more efficient as a result.

Our scorers won't have to carry as big a role with more of them. When they have a good shot take it, but you don't have to be looking to create a shot as much as say Lou had to last year, unless you have a very favorable match-up. Finally because of injury, we also had some playing more than their ideal number of minutes. Obviously efficiency drops off in all areas when you are tired.

Better health, more rested, the floor more spread, far more offensive options, more shooters and more passers adds up to expected significant efficiency improvements in FG %, but also turnover ratios, and some other things as well.

 

[Bone Dog]

the floor will be spread and the inside opened up, resulting in our bigs being more efficient as a result.

So many good observations here, but this one seems really important. A clean lane to work with, no wrestling through double and triple teams -- that's sure to help Aaliyah reach her efficiency goal. At Stanford, Brink perfected her post game in her first two seasons because she almost always had a clean lane.

 

[rugbymate]

One of the best things about this site is basketball savvy post such as this original post. However, i will take issue with the "5th starter" projection. Imo, AG is going to have a fantastic year. When she is in the game with PB, NM and the floor will be spread in a way that works very well for AG. There are not a lot of 4s or 5s that can guard her in a spread floor. I suspect her efficiency, particularly her FG%, will be career best. In fact, she will probably be a difference maker against top teams that choose to come out and challenge our guards. The same can be said about Caroline.

 

[diggerfoot]

Just curious: what do you think Aaliyah's a/t will be? Can she get to 1.0?

You may be alluding to something I did not consider. Efficient UConn offenses often have a high post facilitator. Yet Auriemma also has shown adaptability to the roster he has to work with. He has never had two facilitators as efficient as the ones he will have this year.

Even so, I prefer being optimistic in my expectations and, as @oldhusky pointed out, the efficiency of our guards will enhance the efficiency of our posts. 1.0 for Edwards? Hell no! I say 1.5 A/T.

 

[diggerfoot]

One of the best things about this site is basketball savvy post such as this original post. However, i will take issue with the "5th starter" projection. Imo, AG is going to have a fantastic year. When she is in the game with PB, NM and the floor will be spread in a way that works very well for AG. There are not a lot of 4s or 5s that can guard her in a spread floor. I suspect her efficiency, particularly her FG%, will be career best. In fact, she will probably be a difference maker against top teams that choose to come out and challenge our guards. The same can be said about Caroline.

Lol. Well, I did admit I was copping out.

 

[wingsfan055]

Cant measure efficiency without taking into account minutes at the same time. For example, I'd take Paige with slightly less shooting efficiency but more minutes per game. For some players, there is a huge tradeoff.

 

[Bone Dog]

1.0 for Edwards? Hell no! I say 1.5 A/T.

I like the sound of that! Liv topped 1.5 in her final two seasons, so Aaliyah should be able to as well.

 

[oldhusky]

I like the sound of that! Liv topped 1.5 in her final two seasons, so Aaliyah should be able to as well.

Liv turned into a pretty good passer. Rightly or wrongly, I always considered her someone with average passing instincts that became a good passer in the Uconn system. Uconn has always involved their bigs more in the passing game than most programs. Actually Dorka is a pretty good example of that affect.

She became a decent to pretty good passer in the Uconn system, but if you look at her stats at Ohio State on assists vs. turnovers it almost looked like a completely different player.

 

[diggerfoot]

Cant measure efficiency without taking into account minutes at the same time. For example, I'd take Paige with slightly less shooting efficiency but more minutes per game. For some players, there is a huge tradeoff.

There are different types of efficiency. Admittedly I am predicting the most rudimentary kind because it can easily be measured just by looking at the stats @JRRRJ so graciously provides every year. It’s easy to check on one’s predictions, though so far mine are the only ones.

By factoring in minutes you are addressing production instead of efficiency, a stat the BY is often predicting. On a related note, Bueckers averaged about 16 shots per game her freshman year. This is about the same for Stewart’s career average and less than only M. Moore’s career average of around 18 per game, the UConn leader for volume shooting. Bueckers is not likely to average more minutes/shots/production than she did her freshman year, but she can become even more efficient.

I believe the type of efficiency you might find most important is most accurately calculated via production per possessions (not minutes). This can be done with a little more effort, though more than I am willing to invest. If you would like to start such a thread with your own predictions for productions/possessions (or even minutes) to be examined, myself and others would find it interesting.

In any case, all efficiencies of an individual depend upon the efficiency of the team as well. That is why my caveats and others bring up health.

 

[diggerfoot]

Cant measure efficiency without taking into account minutes at the same time. For example, I'd take Paige with slightly less shooting efficiency but more minutes per game. For some players, there is a huge tradeoff.

Sorry for the double response, I misstated in the previous one. Bueckers is not likely to get more shots or minutes per game than her freshman year. However, her production can indeed increase of her efficiency does.

Also, considering that Clark almost always seems to enter these discussions, let me preempt by saying I believe she averaged less minutes per game than the freshman Bueckers, but she takes significant more shots within that time. No UConn player is likely to produce as much as Clark. It’s possible our offense might achieve as many possessions per game, though doubtful because of our defense, but no single player will take as many shots per minute in our system.

 

[JRRRJ]

There are different types of efficiency. Admittedly I am predicting the most rudimentary kind because it can easily be measured just by looking at the stats @JRRRJ so graciously provides every year. It’s easy to check on one’s predictions, though so far mine are the only ones.

By factoring in minutes you are addressing production instead of efficiency, a stat the BY is often predicting. On a related note, Bueckers averaged about 16 shots per game her freshman year. This is about the same for Stewart’s career average and less than only M. Moore’s career average of around 18 per game, the UConn leader for volume shooting. Bueckers is not likely to average more minutes/shots/production than she did her freshman year, but she can become even more efficient.

I believe the type of efficiency you might find most important is most accurately calculated via production per possessions (not minutes). This can be done with a little more effort, though more than I am willing to invest. If you would like to start such a thread with your own predictions for productions/possessions (or even minutes) to be examined, myself and others would find it interesting.

In any case, all efficiencies of an individual depend upon the efficiency of the team as well. That is why my caveats and others bring up health.

@diggerfoot, I ran up a rough calculation of points per possession, shown below in the last 2 columns of the grid. The calculations are as follows:

Points Per Personal Possession (PPPP): (Player FGM*2 + Player 3FGM*3 + Player FTM) / (Player FGA + Player 3FGA + Player FTA)
Points Per Team Possession (PPTP): (Player FGM*2 + Player 3FGM *3+ Player FTM) / (TEAM FGA + TEAM 3FGA + TEAM FTA - TEAM ORB - TEAM TO)

Note that I am counting a possession as belonging to a player if the player made a shot attempt, so possessions are too high in most cases. Another inaccuracy is counting each free throw attempt as a possession, whereas each trip to the FT line would be better. Another is that we don't know if a TO occurred before a shot was taken, but I'm using it to reduce the possession count anyhow.

Like to hear any criticisms of the methodology, suggestions to improve it, votes for including the stats in the upcoming year's spreadsheet.

 

[JRRRJ]

Hmph! Additionally to my critiques of the PPP methodology I mentioned above, I also realized that minutes played needs to be a factor in PPTP as well. (Actually, team possessions occurring whilst a player is on the floor, which would require writing a program to parse the play-by-play data on the ESPN site, which I've been avoiding.)

Upshot, the PPTP figures above are very rough. Buyer beware!

 

[diggerfoot]

@diggerfoot, I ran up a rough calculation of points per possession, shown below in the last 2 columns of the grid. The calculations are as follows:

Points Per Personal Possession (PPPP): (Player FGM*2 + Player 3FGM*3 + Player FTM) / (Player FGA + Player 3FGA + Player FTA)
Points Per Team Possession (PPTP): (Player FGM*2 + Player 3FGM *3+ Player FTM) / (TEAM FGA + TEAM 3FGA + TEAM FTA - TEAM ORB - TEAM TO)

Note that I am counting a possession as belonging to a player if the player made a shot attempt, so possessions are too high in most cases. Another inaccuracy is counting each free throw attempt as a possession, whereas each trip to the FT line would be better. Another is that we don't know if a TO occurred before a shot was taken, but I'm using it to reduce the possession count anyhow.

Like to hear any criticisms of the methodology, suggestions to improve it, votes for including the stats in the upcoming year's spreadsheet.

View attachment 92577

You are amazing as always. My immediate reaction you addressed in your follow up, accounting for the production per possessions for the minutes played. The labor to do that makes me cringe.

On the other hand, what directly addresses @wingsfan055 comment is production per minutes played, which is more easily done, though should incorporate assists in some way. Personally, I am too lazy for that as well.

 

[hoophuskee]

Azzi EFG% 65%
Paige EFG% 64%
Edwards EFG% 59%
Caroline EFG% 56%
Aubrey EFg% 55%