DeLoss Dodds on Big 12 expansion

[lv99]

Tweet from 1 hour ago:

kbohls ‏@kbohls
On B12 expansion, UT AD DeLoss Dodds: "I like 10 ... you've got to be realistic. If you want to be part of change ... got to change w/ it."

Also, Brett McMurphy has some tweets about Big 10 and Big 12 expansion today.

Maybe something really is going to happen.

 

[whaler11]

Problem for the Big 12 being no one but UConn, Cincy or USF wants to join.

 

[Fishy]

I don't think that's accurate - I think there are programs that would go to the Big 12. A bigger problem is finding two teams that don't dilute the piggy bank that much - there are roughly no schools available that would pay for themselves.

But, I'm sure Florida State would go pending a favorable result for Maryland and the inclusion of a travel 'partner'.

It's a pretty appealing move:

1) More cash. A lot more cash. (They're not doing well.)

2) Games against Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and West Virginia. They get to sell home tickets for those programs as opposed to the flotsam in the ACC.

3) They keep their Tier 3 rights and can sell those. Even better, those Tier 3 rights automatically include one home football game.

 

[whaler11]

Who would the Big 12 want that would join? BYU maybe? I'm sure Boise would take their call.

I don't think Clemson or Florida State want any part of them today. FSU sees their route to the playoffs is much more realistic in the ACC. Why didn't they go prior to the $50 million exit fee?

Who else would they want that would go prior to the Big 10 making a move?

 

[Fishy]

First off, Florida State hasn't been invited. That's something of a hurdle for 'em.

Second, I think you're badly misreading Florida State.

There's a reason they reached out to the Big Ten and there's a reason they pitched such a holy fit over the potential inclusion of UConn in the ACC - the ACC is a weak football conference. The strength of schedule will kill the winner of the ACC in terms of attaining the top four. (And playoff payouts are heavily weighted to the conferences that send teams.)

Florida State lost one game in the ACC and was still 13th in the final BCS rankings. The computers had them between 14 and 24 - Northern Illinois topped them in a few of those ratings. That's not going to improve - they're adding two marginal-to-bad football programs next season and who knows what Louisville will look like when they get there.

More often than not, we'll be looking at two SEC teams playing against a Big Ten/Pac12/Big12 mix.

 

[whaler11]

First off, Florida State hasn't been invited. That's something of a hurdle for 'em.

Second, I think you're badly misreading Florida State.

There's a reason they reached out to the Big Ten and there's a reason they pitched such a holy fit over the potential inclusion of UConn in the ACC - the ACC is a weak football conference. The strength of schedule will kill the winner of the ACC in terms of attaining the top four. (And playoff payouts are heavily weighted to the conferences that send teams.)

Florida State lost one game in the ACC and was still 13th in the final BCS rankings. The computers had them between 14 and 24 - Northern Illinois topped them in a few of those ratings. That's not going to improve - they're adding two marginal-to-bad football programs next season and who knows what Louisville will look like when they get there.

More often than not, we'll be looking at two SEC teams playing against a Big Ten/Pac12/Big12 mix.

I think they would join the Big 10 or SEC. I don't they want to join the Big 12. I can just as easily say that FSU doesn't have an invite because the Big 12 knows they won't accept.

They lost one game in the ACC... And to Florida. If they went 12-0 they would have been in a four team playoff - it's not picked on computer rankings.

I think the Big 12 is stuck on 10 because they don't want the teams that are freely available (BE/MWC) and no one else wants to join right now. You think they make a call and FSU goes, I think they don't make the call until they know it's the answer they want.

 

[Fishy]

All right, try this.

The last time an ACC team would have been included in a four-team playoff was 2002 - and, at the time, that ACC team was in the Big East. (Closest would have been VaTech in '07). In contrast, the Big 12 has ten or eleven teams that would have likely been included. Playoff payouts are weighted to the conferences that send teams.

ACC "benefits" for Florida State -

1) Proven to be a poor route to the top 4.
2) Computers marginalize the conference - like the hoop tourney, any selection committee will use computer models. Bet your life on that.
3) Significantly less money.
4) Less stable.

 

[whaler11]

All right, try this.

The last time an ACC team would have been included in a four-team playoff was 2002 - and, at the time, that ACC team was in the Big East. (Closest would have been VaTech in '07). In contrast, the Big 12 has ten or eleven teams that would have likely been included. Playoff payouts are weighted to the conferences that send teams.

ACC "benefits" for Florida State -

1) Proven to be a poor route to the top 4.
2) Computers marginalize the conference - like the hoop tourney, any selection committee will use computer models. Bet your life on that.
3) Significantly less money.
4) Less stable.

Sure a lot of that is true. The Big 12 also added West Virginia. Would anyone choose West Virginia over Florida State?

The ACC hasn't had teams that would be included because the ACC hasn't had good teams. If Florida State went 12-0 do you think they would have been left out in 2012? For who? Which 4 teams would have gone to the playoff over them? It would have been Oregon. ND, Alabama and FSU.

 

[Fishy]

No, all of it is true..

Not sure what your point is with Florida State and your 12-0 question - of course, they would have gone at 12-0.

But that doesn't help you.

The only way they were going to go was if they finished 12-0. If they lose so much as one game with their strength of schedule, they're screwed.

 

[whaler11]

No, all of it is true..

Not sure what your point is with Florida State and your 12-0 question - of course, they would have gone at 12-0.

But that doesn't help you.

The only way they were going to go was if they finished 12-0. If they lose so much as one game with their strength of schedule, they're screwed.

Everyone with a loss not in the SEC is generally screwed. Kansas State had a loss and would have stayed home too.

When the Big 12 expanded why did they land on West Virginia instead of Florida State? If FSU would come running and they think 10 is a magical number why was WVU number 10 over FSU?

It's more likely FSU goes undefeated in the ACC over 12-1 in the Big 12 anyway. That alone makes the playoff path from the ACC easier.

 

[Icculus]

nevermind the expansion angle to this....i'm fascinated by something else:
What set of circumstances has to occur for a set of parents to decide to name their child "DeLoss"?
It may be the greatest mystery of this age.

 

[Fishy]

I went to his Wiki page to try to get to the bottom of it.

I came up empty, but I did learn that his kids are named Doug Dodds, Debra Dodds and Diedre Dodds.

Whatever catastrophic event led someone to name a child DeLoss Dodds, it appears to still be in full effect.

 

[Exit 4]

And dont forget DeLoss' son: Devoid Dodds.

 

[JeepCSC]

Florida State would like an increase in pay, but I don't think Oklahoma and Iowa and Kansas hold much appeal to them. They will come only with a large ACC contingent coming with them. Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami kind of thing. You likely can't shake those other schools loose unless the ACC falls apart, and I think the only way to get the ACC to truly die is to pry UNC or FSU away. FSU is stuck without partners and UNC doesn't seem willing. We are in a holding pattern until the next shoe drops, and then schools will reevaluate.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

When ESPN steps up with more cash for the ACC, which I think they will, FSU will sit tight.

I also think the era of SEC dominance of college football is nearing an end. With the dollars as large as they are, one of two things will happen with the rampant cheating: Either the other 4 major conferences will drop the hammer on the SEC or they will decide to cheat too, and just change the rules so it is not cheating. Does anyone think the 4 other majors will just hand over $100MM a year in performance money from the playoff to the SEC when everyone knows the SEC is paying their players? For $5MM to a conference per year (the bonus for getting a second team in the BCS), the other leagues will value their integrity. At $100MM a year, something has to give.

In addition, any selection committee is going to take a look at SEC out of conference schedules and start punishing teams for not going on the road. There is a barely perceptible home advantage in about half the BCS computer rankings. If the SEC was run through a RPI type formula with a heavier home field advantage adjuster, most of the last few years the rankings would quite a bit different.

FSU wants to be associating with the ACC universities, and as long as ESPN shows them the Quan, which I think ESPN will, FSU will be in the ACC for the foreseeable future.