Can UConn be as good as SC this year?

[TCC Kid]

The rest of the country also will be improved by March as well..

That's a MAYBE!!

 

[LCConnFan]

No.

Simply stated, but to the point. I agree. We don't have a "Team". We have 5 players and 2 - 3 subs, that have barely interacted in a game. Plus with covid, we can't BE a team.

 

[TCC Kid]

Don’t know. I do know South Carolina looked very, very good against us in the fourth quarter.

Personally, I’m looking forward to seeing a healthy Azzi Fudd. If she truly is the lights out shooter that she has the reputation of being all of a sudden we become an extraordinarily difficult team to match up against. this is particularly true with the emergence of Caroline.

I don’t know if we can match up against the South Carolina bigs, OK I do know… we can’t, but they won’t be able to sit in the paint if we have a perimeter team of a healthy Bueckers, Fudd and DuCharme. That potentially could be a fascinating chess game with each team attempting to impose its will in style of play on the other.

Regardless of the loss, South Carolina is an extraordinarily formidable team this year. Stanford too, is a very good team. I’ll just come out and say it. I thought we would be the team to beat this year. We’re not, but we’re in the hunt and have the potential to be dramatically improved by March.

South Carolina IS a very good team so is Stanford. Yet both have been beaten, this year. You stated--SC looked great especially in the 4th quarter--which means Uconn looked very good in 3 quarters. SC,Dawn, rotated players more often than Geno felt was right--wore down Uconn as did jeff Wallz, Louisville. With a short bench that's the tactic used against Geno's teams a lot when Uc had a short bench. With a rested, revised, chemistry-ized team in late March or early April--(If Uconn is that lucky) all those concerns may not be realized. Things change quickly in WCBB, we have seen. Ooops there goes another Rubber Tree plant. Riding high in April, Shot down in May??

 

[BrianUC]

I am confident we will beat SC in the FF if we make it to play them in the championship game. Everyone knows we don't lose in the finals.

 

[TeamFirst!]

10-15% chance realistically. Who knows what the injury situation will be in March? Will Paige be able to fully recover? Who else will be in our bracket? Can we get hot? Can we play with confidence or will we be fearful and succumb to the pressure as some of the players on SC did yesterday? If the 69 Mets could win it all, anyone can. Lot's of people think Arizona beat us so they must have been better last year but it's more likely that they just got hot and had no pressure and took it to us. If we played Arizona 10 games last year my bet is we would have won at least 7.

One thing I really like is that we now have 2 more players really contributing and confident now in the mix ( Dorka and Caroline ). If we can get Azzi up there with them I like our chances. I think our front court rotation is right there with anyones. If Azzi and Caroline are fully integrated and performing I will like our back court as well. It sure helps to have 8-9 players in a strong rotation.

 

[tchalla1]

South Carolina IS a very good team so is Stanford. Yet both have been beaten, this year. You stated--SC looked great especially in the 4th quarter--which means Uconn looked very good in 3 quarters. SC,Dawn, rotated players more often than Geno felt was right--wore down Uconn as did jeff Wallz, Louisville. With a short bench that's the tactic used against Geno's teams a lot when Uc had a short bench. With a rested, revised, chemistry-ized team in late March or early April--(If Uconn is that lucky) all those concerns may not be realized. Things change quickly in WCBB, we have seen. Ooops there goes another Rubber Tree plant. Riding high in April, Shot down in May??

I am glad you mentioned Stanford as well--before their colossal meltdown largely due to poor guard play, they had completely mastered SC. To me, they are the scarier team come FF time...

 

[Conndog]

If UConn can hit outside shots and play solid defense, then they can beat SC and anyone.
Need Ducharme to continue to play well (& the more minutes she can get, the better she will become), need Azzi to be recovered and start to acclimate fully to the college speed game. It's taken Ducharme a few games with long stretches of playing time to get up to develop, can Azzi get this same conditioning period? Need Paige to get into shape quickly if she gets the green light to play (not worried about her shot). I'd be careful with Paige and limit her playing time when she comes back, with playing time increasing more over time. Christyn can shoot or drive, EW can shoot, we'll see about Nika, she plays defense and sets up others, but she can hit a few shots too.
Can we beat SC or Stanford or Louisville or Arizona if they meet again?
Yes!
We have good players up front- Dorka, Liv, Aaliyah, hopefully Aubrey, maybe DeBerry
We have good shooting guards- Ducharme, Christyn, EW, Azzi, Paige, Nika
That's a lot of offensive firepower- give the starters some rest with the deepening roster, and we can go into 4th Q and seal a victory. Just need to play good defense too and limit turnovers.

 

[JellyBean]

To be honest, nope. Because there are so many "What If" situations and "It all depends on..." that I do not see our UConn squad being as good as South Carolina is this year. On paper, we look great. Match up well. But on the court, things get interesting. I just do not see it.

 

[HiDribble]

No way

 

[cwaduke]

Just having Nika back would be huge. This team needs attitude.

 

[oldhusky]

It's possible, but a return to health by itself is not enough. There seems to be an assumption that it might be ok if they return and play like they did before the injuries. The way they played before the injuries this year was not anywhere close to being good enough.

Most had us and SC as the preseason favorites. That was largely based on us returning everyone except Anna, if anything upgrading her loss in the portal with Dorka, and bringing in a great freshmen class. Then we logically added some presumed improvement for returning players. All of that made sense. How could we possibly be worse than last year?

Of course the injuries are devastating, but the only Uconn player with previous college experience that is doing as well as last year based on PER statistics is Paige. If every player plays like they have so far this year when everyone is healthy, we are at best a second tier contender. If individual players just match last year's production we could be among the favorites. That seems easily doable, but remember they have not even come close so far.

To be considered right at the top we need everyone healthy, Azzi needs to be a star not just a contributor, Caroline needs to play like her last game, Dorka needs to play like she did at Ohio State, and our players coming back from last year need to be at least as good as last year and probably better.

All of these players have the ability to improve on this season's performance so far, but it is discouraging that we don't need a player or two to bounce back, we need almost everybody except for Paige to return to form or meet expectations. The rest of the season has almost become an extended training camp, as we look for a breakout game like Caroline's last one, from just about all the players on the roster.

A return to health gives them the ability to get their mojo back, but if they don't play close to preseason expectations they are probably not near the very top teams. Match preseason expectations and we could be right there. Play like we did before the injuries and the Final Four streak is likely over.

 

[Surly1]

SC is the best team in wcbb right now, even with the Mizzou loss yesterday. UConn, as the team stands today, doesn't have a realistic chance to compete for a national championship. But we have four players injured. If some or all of the injured players return in time to get back into the flow before the NCAAs, can we expect to compete evenly with SC and other top teams?

Assuming that returning players are at least as good as they were pre-injury, but not greatly better, how much does UConn improve? Nika and Azzi are most likely to be back and at full strength within the next month. Nika will give other players rest time and we'll be better with her but not that much better. Azzi also provides another body to rest other players but she'll need to knock down 4 or 5 threes a game to have a big impact. With both of them back we are better but not as good as SC.

It isn't clear if Paige and Aubrey return or not. Aubrey hasn't played basketball in a loooong time and even after cleared to play will need time to be a significant contributor. Add Nika, Azzi and Aubrey to what we have and we still aren't as good as SC.

Add Paige along with Nika and Azzi, we are as good as anyone. Paige is such a huge talent that just adding her alone is a significant upgrade. Anything Aubrey could add to the mix would be gravy.

On paper, UConn has as much talent as anyone in the country. However, UConn is dealing with a pandemic within a pandemic. With so many players missing quality time, game time and even practice time, it‘s impossible to get an accurate gauge on this team.
What is apparent though is the current mix who have played the last 3 games is not good enough to contend for a title. That should be clear by now. SC has their core group relatively healthy and intact. Essentially, UConn will be starting over at some point, trying to find the right mix, blend of players.
It seems to me that too many posters are overly optimistic and players can be put back in and everything coalesces. UConn‘s expected team chemistry has taken a severe hit this season and are lagging far behind a lot of teams.
Can it all come together? Yes, because they have the pieces. However, almost everything has to occur positively - which is not a given in this season of turmoil.

 

[jabstep]

It's certainly possible but UConn simply can't compete with South Carolina's front court..........the only way they beat SC is if the UConn front court simply holds their own while the rest of the team has a great shooting game.......with everybody back including PB, I'd give them a 35%-40% chance of winning that game........

I thought we played their frontcourt evenly for three quarters. We stopped their bigs early on and it got us off on the break in the first half. It looked like we might run them off the court. Our girls just played too many minutes in the 2 days before. I think we can take them if we have all our players back. If not then we get them next year.

 

[Bigboote]

It's possible, but a return to health by itself is not enough. There seems to be an assumption that it might be ok if they return and play like they did before the injuries. The way they played before the injuries this year was not anywhere close to being good enough.

On the other hand, I'm not sure there was a "before the injuries" for any of UConn's injured players except for Paige.

Azzi was in a boot this summer and certainly didn't play like herself in the U19's. Nika was dealing with a foot injury during the preseason. Both of them were shut down for the same injuries as they'd had earlier, which makes me think neither was fully healthy early in the season.

 

[msf22b]

This is the most difficult year to handicap that I can recall.

So many variables (even despite UConn)
So many unknowns.

I can't even begin to formulate an answer to the OP's query

For UConn to return to dominance... it obviously depends not only on the individual health of missing stars.

But how the returning players fit into the scheme that has existed in their absence.
One can recall that Nika became less effective last season as the team's general health improved.

There is no guarantee that Caroline and Dorka will be as effective as they have been.

But if they are
and Nika is as assertive as she was in her best form last season
Then this could be a world-beater team; even without much help from the seniors.
And I haven't even mentioned the budding super-stars

But who knows if that will happen? As above...
So many variables, so many unknowns.

 

[Carnac]

I am confident we will beat SC in the FF if we make it to play them in the championship game. Everyone knows we don't lose in the finals.

Brian, I applaud your optimism. IF they make it that far, maybe they do have a puncher's chance of beating SC. The problem there is that there are other top ranked (top 10) teams UConn has to get by BEFORE they play SC. On their current pace, UConn can very like be a 3 seed in the tournament. Especially if they lose a conference game or two.

UConn will have to play and defeat a top 5 team to get to the final four. There's no getting around that. In the past, UConn has breezed through the first 3 games. Based on their play this season, I can't take anything for granted. Remember, UConn scored just 3 points in the 4th quarter versus SC, and only 5 fourth quarter points against unranked Georgia Tech. They've shown the willingness and ability to fade late in BIG games. I could suggest that the best indication of future behavior is past behavior, but I won't. UConn had key players out during those games. All of those players should be back, healthy and ready to play come tournament time.

The tournament is ten weeks from now.* A lot can and will happen between then. We'll see how things play out. We know what UConn must do to reach the final four. Other posters here have (I think) accurately stated in graphic detail what those things are. Time will tell. For the record, I hope you're right.

*Here is the complete women's 2022 March Madness schedule, which begins with Selection Monday on Monday, March 14.

• First- and second-round games will be played Friday, March 18, through Monday, March 21, at top-16 seeds.
• Regionals are Friday, March 25, through Monday, March 28, in Connecticut, North Carolina, Washington and Kansas.
• The Final Four is Friday, April 1, and the national championship game is Sunday, April 3 at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minn.

 

[Carnac]

On paper, UConn has as much talent as anyone in the country. However, UConn is dealing with a pandemic within a pandemic. With so many players missing quality time, game time and even practice time, it‘s impossible to get an accurate gauge on this team.
What is apparent though is the current mix who have played the last 3 games is not good enough to contend for a title. That should be clear by now. SC has their core group relatively healthy and intact. Essentially, UConn will be starting over at some point, trying to find the right mix, blend of players.
It seems to me that too many posters are overly optimistic and players can be put back in and everything coalesces. UConn‘s expected team chemistry has taken a severe hit this season and are lagging far behind a lot of teams.
Can it all come together? Yes, because they have the pieces. However, almost everything has to occur positively - which is not a given in this season of turmoil.

Excellent points in bold and red. Geno can't flip a switch and make everything alright.

 

[oldhusky]

On the other hand, I'm not sure there was a "before the injuries" for any of UConn's injured players except for Paige.

Azzi was in a boot this summer and certainly didn't play like herself in the U19's. Nika was dealing with a foot injury during the preseason. Both of them were shut down for the same injuries as they'd had earlier, which makes me think neither was fully healthy early in the season.

For Azzi and Nika I agree that could be the case. I hope that their performance was hampered by injuries, and as a result bouncing back being much more likely. The team provides little details so if a player sits, we get an explanation, but if they are playing with a nagging injury we generally don't know it, and assume they are good to go, but of course sometimes they are not.

 

[SLY63]

If UConn can hit outside shots and play solid defense, then they can beat SC and anyone.

Agree

 

[Blue Ghost]

Here's what I have seen is the difference:
SC at home against Stanford. Stanford had a huge lead at the half. In the second half SC guards turned up the pressure and the Stanford guards made turnovers and then Henderson made key buckets to bring them back and win. SC outrebounded Stanford 40-38. Stanford 7-15 from three. SC 4-16.
SC away against Missouri, The Missouri guards were able to handle the pressure and limit Henderson to 7 points. SC outrebounded Missouri 47-37. Missouri 7-15 from three. SC 6-21.
Boston will get her points and rebounds.
But the key is limiting the guards for SC, especially Henderson. If you limit her you have a good chance to win.
If everyone comes back (Paige, Azzi, Nika, not sure if Aubrey is coming back this year), we have a very good team able to beat SC.

 

[#12in21]

Hoping to see after this covid pause, a healthy and aggressive Nika back at point, Evina with less pressure to do everything and again putting up solid numbers in all categories, Christyn confidence back and aggressively driving into the lane, a healthy Azzi showing why she was #1 coming out of HS, Caroline and Dorka not missing a beat from where they were before the pause, Liv continuing good D and passing and adding showing good hands in the post, keeping the ball high and finishing at the basket and Edwards (with amnesia related to the last few months) playing like the phenom she finished last season. This isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Geno spoke last year about how Nika was a difference maker in both the offensive and defensive flow. This will be the time to prove that. Paige was key to allowing that to happen by her scoring and as a second great passer. If Azzi and Caroline can combine to bring excellent three point accuracy, driving scoring from the off guard position, good positioning and movement her loss for a time can be somewhat countered and ball movement on offense shouldn't be an issue. Haven't seen enough of Azzi's D but very encouraged by what we've seen from Caroline at moments Edwards resurgence as the dominating presence she could be last season should be a big lift to getting back to the defensive UCONN has been known for. With Nika harassing the ball handler, slowing the opponents into getting into their offense, great communication and switching by everybody and good protection inside by our bigs we would get back to solid defense.

Over a half dozen games back against BE opponents all the above is quite doable. Then with the reintegration of Paige and Aubrey we are a better team than we finished last year or started this year and we have as good a shot as anybody to win the NC. A harbinger of all this for me will be seeing Nika pressuring the ball out top, Aaliyah coming in strong to double team, a tipped ball and a run out with purple and yellow braids flying with a finish at the basket with a trailing Nika ready for a put back on a miss - but there won't be one.

 

[Skeets]

I am a little dismayed at some of the posts here, i.e. "no way", "no chance" etc. I'll be the first to admit that things have to go exactly right, and that things hardly ever work out that way. But remember when the guys had to win 11 straight, 5 in the BE tournament and 6 in the NCAA to win an NC as an improbable 7-seed? So, it is possible. Don't tell me it isn't. Can we just root for our girls without throwing shade on them?

 

[Cuango]

Just having Nika back would be huge. This team needs attitude.

Attitude would be great but what we really need is scoring and rebounding, neither of which are Nika’s strong points. I do agree we need her back, though.

 

[JamesinGR]

SC is the best team in wcbb right now, even with the Mizzou loss yesterday. UConn, as the team stands today, doesn't have a realistic chance to compete for a national championship. But we have four players injured. If some or all of the injured players return in time to get back into the flow before the NCAAs, can we expect to compete evenly with SC and other top teams?

Assuming that returning players are at least as good as they were pre-injury, but not greatly better, how much does UConn improve? Nika and Azzi are most likely to be back and at full strength within the next month. Nika will give other players rest time and we'll be better with her but not that much better. Azzi also provides another body to rest other players but she'll need to knock down 4 or 5 threes a game to have a big impact. With both of them back we are better but not as good as SC.

It isn't clear if Paige and Aubrey return or not. Aubrey hasn't played basketball in a loooong time and even after cleared to play will need time to be a significant contributor. Add Nika, Azzi and Aubrey to what we have and we still aren't as good as SC.

Add Paige along with Nika and Azzi, we are as good as anyone. Paige is such a huge talent that just adding her alone is a significant upgrade. Anything Aubrey could add to the mix would be gravy.

No. Cannot count on seniors to lead on a consistent basis, an important variable. Then, after Paige, no underclassmen living up to their hype with noted exception of Caroline. Thinking we’re a year away.

 

[SVCBeercats]

SC is the best team in wcbb right now, even with the Mizzou loss yesterday. UConn, as the team stands today, doesn't have a realistic chance to compete for a national championship.

Will UCONN have Paige this season? Does a chicken have lips?