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Bubble teams

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nelsonmuntz said:
If they are 23-9 with no top 25 wins and only 4 Top 100 wins, SMU is out, good story or not.
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This would only be true if these other bubble teams had 4 wins as good as SMU does. Almost all of them do not.

St. John's is on the bubble. Their best win is Creighton - their 2nd best win is either PC or Georgetown and both of those teams are on the bubble too.

PC beat Creighton and Xavier. Their third best win is also against a bubble team.

If you're calling SMU a bubble team, these are the resumes they are up against.
 
If smu and st Louis are bubble teams; PC should fold up the tents.
Those teams are solid. They could lose out and still be 9 seeds
 
seanmc94 said:
If smu and st Louis are bubble teams; PC should fold up the tents.
Those teams are solid. They could lose out and still be 9 seeds
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According to Jerry Palm, PC is one of the last 4 in. They would have a Tuesday night play in game vs Nebraska (Bruce Dern will be starting there!!) If they get by the cornhuskers UNC awaits them. I'm sure that game would be somewhere in the state of North Carolina.
 
Yonick said:
According to Jerry Palm, PC is one of the last 4 in. They would have a Tuesday night play in game vs Nebraska (Bruce Dern will be starting there!!) If they get by the cornhuskers UNC awaits them. I'm sure that game would be somewhere in the state of North Carolina.
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Lunardi's latest has them last four out, whatever that's worth. Either way upsets in conference tournaments are bad news for them
 
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HuskyBballFan said:
This would only be true if these other bubble teams had 4 wins as good as SMU does. Almost all of them do not.

St. John's is on the bubble. Their best win is Creighton - their 2nd best win is either PC or Georgetown and both of those teams are on the bubble too.

PC beat Creighton and Xavier. Their third best win is also against a bubble team.

If you're calling SMU a bubble team, these are the resumes they are up against.
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St. Johns is also out, so that is not a good comparison. Dayton is in right now. 2 wins over Top 25 RPI, 8 over top 100, 9-5 r/n record, and they play in a better league. There is not a single criteria by which SMU gets in over Dayton.

Providence is 8-9 vs. Top 100, with a couple of those wins occurring on neutral courts.

You could make a case for SMU vs. a team like Minnesota, but I don't think Minnesota is going either unless they pick up another quality win.

SMU needs UConn to finish Top 20 RPI to have a prayer of a bid if they lose out. After UConn, SMU's next best road win is over #133 Wyoming. SMU needs to beat Memphis on Saturday or beat someone decent in the AAC Tournament, otherwise they are NIT bound. Another problem for SMU is that other schools are going out and getting quality wins. Colorado picked up a big win last night, and Baylor got one at Tuesday. They need another quality win.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
St. Johns is also out, so that is not a good comparison. Dayton is in right now. 2 wins over Top 25 RPI, 8 over top 100, 9-5 r/n record, and they play in a better league. There is not a single criteria by which SMU gets in over Dayton.

Providence is 8-9 vs. Top 100, with a couple of those wins occurring on neutral courts.

You could make a case for SMU vs. a team like Minnesota, but I don't think Minnesota is going either unless they pick up another quality win.

SMU needs UConn to finish Top 20 RPI to have a prayer of a bid if they lose out. After UConn, SMU's next best road win is over #133 Wyoming. SMU needs to beat Memphis on Saturday or beat someone decent in the AAC Tournament, otherwise they are NIT bound. Another problem for SMU is that other schools are going out and getting quality wins. Colorado picked up a big win last night, and Baylor got one at Tuesday. They need another quality win.
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You are wrong, but you keeping trying to convince yourself if you want.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

8 seed right now, 2 games to play, lock. Palm also has them as a 9.

Every "expert" and bracket site has them as a lock. I do not think they are all wrong.
 
No way the committee passes on a Larry Brown team with 23+ wins. They are already in. One win the AAC Tourney and they can start selling tickets.
 
pepband99 said:
If SMU loses out, they're sitting at about 55 in the RPI. That's serious bubble city.

Anything else, and they're likely in. A win of any kind puts them in the 40's.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/SMU.html
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From ESPN's Bubble Watch:

Thursday night's Cincinnati-Memphis result didn't pertain to bubble concerns. As the Watch wrote Tuesday -- when it officially locked up the American's five bids -- there is no conceivable way any of these teams could fail to make the NCAA tournament.
 
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Ah, so *now* you're referencing Bubble Watch, when you were so adamant a week ago that we were a lock *before ESPN locked us up*

Anyway...

If SMU loses out, they end up with a 56 RPI, a SOS > 100, and they have losses @arkansas (a bubble peer), @USF, and @Temple. That's a bubble team, period.
 
pepband99 said:
Ah, so *now* you're referencing Bubble Watch, when you were so adamant a week ago that we were a lock *before ESPN locked us up*

Anyway...

If SMU loses out, they end up with a 56 RPI, a SOS > 100, and they have losses @arkansas (a bubble peer), @USF, and @Temple. That's a bubble team, period.
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You're fighting a losing battle.

Just like you were when you said UConn was not a lock going into the Cincy game.

P.S. Bubble watch is extremely conservative putting teams in lock.

Oh here is another one for you:

American Athletic Conference
LOCKS: Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Memphis, SMU

Louisville and Cincinnati enter the final week of the regular season tied atop the conference standings at 13-3. The Cardinals have the harder remaining schedule, as they visit SMU and host Connecticut. Cincinnati welcomes Memphis to town on Thursday, then has a quick turnaround at Rutgers on Saturday. All five of these teams have done enough to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday.
 
You know the criteria, so I don't know why you are referencing someone else's opinion. W/L, RPI, Quality wins, R/N record, Top 50 and Top 100 record. The committee is pretty consistent year over year about this stuff, and I am confident I would get no more than 1 wrong if I was to put together a tournament field on Selection Sunday before the committee announced. It is not that hard to do if you just follow the selection rules. There is a lot less magic to this than guys like Lunardi let on.

How does SMU stack up? Right now, they are OK, but they have at least 2 more tough games, and if they lose both, they are in big trouble. A "lock" at this point is a team that does not need to win another game to make the tourney. UConn is a lock. SMU is not.

The good news for SMU is that other teams are going to lose games between now and selection Sunday, so that project 56 RPI ranking may improve a bit if Arkansas, Tennessee, Minnesota and the rest of the bubble are picking up losses. The problem for SMU is that most of those teams are also picking up wins between now and Selection Sunday too.
 
I reference other people to reiterate the point they are a lock.

The projected RPI is a flawed tool.

The best case for SMU I believe is finishing 1-2. That one potential win being Houston. If so, care to wager if they get in or not?
 
They get in with a win of any kind.

Lose out, and I put them at 50/50.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
You know the criteria, so I don't know why you are referencing someone else's opinion. W/L, RPI, Quality wins, R/N record, Top 50 and Top 100 record. The committee is pretty consistent year over year about this stuff, and I am confident I would get no more than 1 wrong if I was to put together a tournament field on Selection Sunday before the committee announced. It is not that hard to do if you just follow the selection rules. There is a lot less magic to this than guys like Lunardi let on.

How does SMU stack up? Right now, they are OK, but they have at least 2 more tough games, and if they lose both, they are in big trouble. A "lock" at this point is a team that does not need to win another game to make the tourney. UConn is a lock. SMU is not.

The good news for SMU is that other teams are going to lose games between now and selection Sunday, so that project 56 RPI ranking may improve a bit if Arkansas, Tennessee, Minnesota and the rest of the bubble are picking up losses. The problem for SMU is that most of those teams are also picking up wins between now and Selection Sunday too.
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SMU is in. No one with any credibility disputes this. I don't know why you're going on and on as if you've got something figured out that no one else does. They're in.
 
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Surprised after yesterday that he didn't move them off the 5 line, but I'll take it.

Game v.s. Memphis is huge Thursday night for many reasons. If they can win that game, I think they are in good shape to be no worse than a 6 seed. Win 2 games in the tournament, and then we are looking at no worse than a 5 seed.

Lose however, and we are going the other way towards a 7, or worst case, 8 seed.

The difference between being a 6 seed or 8 seed is monumental.
 
Jerry1714 said:
You're fighting a losing battle.

Just like you were when you said UConn was not a lock going into the Cincy game.

P.S. Bubble watch is extremely conservative putting teams in lock.
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I'm calling a flag here. You seem to using Bubble Watch as an authority and disagreeing with pep about UConn being on the bubble last week. But Bubble Watch did not have UConn as a lock last week. So was Bubble Watch wrong?
 
Daily Bracket now has SMU at 11 in a play-in game, while Bracket Matrix shows SMU is in all 81 polls, with more than half having them as a 10 or better.
Even after updates this week that will move them down, hard to see them falling out, although I guess with a first-round loss they could go to a 12 seed play-in.

UConn sitting in 25th on DB's S-Curve rank, as the best 7th seed.

Meantime, Pitt is sending everyone on Clemson lifetime gift certificates to Primanti Bros. They were 0.1 seconds from the NIT. Maybe even less. Clemson's gaffe probably cost PC or BYU a spot.
 
BYU is a lock. They are in no danger of losing their bid, and do not need to win another game. There is not a single hole in their resume.

SMU got helped out by a few faceplants the last few days. Iowa, Missouri, Georgetown (probably out of it at this point) and Arkansas all threw up on themselves. Arkansas and Iowa in particular, went from "in" to in deep bubble trouble. Iowa looks like a team about to lose in the first round of their conference tournament. Arkansas has a 62 RPI, which is really hard to overcome, and two wins over an OK Kentucky team are not enough.
 
I'm oddly fascinated to see what happens to Providence. They are right on the edge, it seems, and one upset in a conference tourney (like Gonzaga nearly last night) and they're probably done. They had really better win a game or two in the fake Big East tournament.
 
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I forgot to mention California among schools that threw up on themselves.

Providence beats St. Johns, they are probably in the dance. Lose that game, and PC is probably out. SMU can not lose to Houston. With all the other losses, a win may be enough to get them a bid.
 
HuskyBballFan said:
This would only be true if these other bubble teams had 4 wins as good as SMU does. Almost all of them do not.

St. John's is on the bubble. Their best win is Creighton - their 2nd best win is either PC or Georgetown and both of those teams are on the bubble too.

PC beat Creighton and Xavier. Their third best win is also against a bubble team.

If you're calling SMU a bubble team, these are the resumes they are up against.
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One of Xavier, St John's and PC will make the tournament just because there isn't enough everywhere else to keep the BE from getting three bids. At the moment I would wager that it is ~50/50 that two of the three will get bids (possibly both in play-in games) but a couple of surprises in conference tournaments would knock some bubble teams out and the BE schools are in very tenuous situations. I imagine that it would take quite a few upsets (and three or four non-tournament teams to gain autobids) before SMU needs to worry.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
BYU is a lock. They are in no danger of losing their bid, and do not need to win another game. There is not a single hole in their resume.

SMU got helped out by a few faceplants the last few days. Iowa, Missouri, Georgetown (probably out of it at this point) and Arkansas all threw up on themselves. Arkansas and Iowa in particular, went from "in" to in deep bubble trouble. Iowa looks like a team about to lose in the first round of their conference tournament. Arkansas has a 62 RPI, which is really hard to overcome, and two wins over an OK Kentucky team are not enough.
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Now you think Iowa is on the bubble?

Very very odd
 
Waquoit said:
I'm calling a flag here. You seem to using Bubble Watch as an authority and disagreeing with pep about UConn being on the bubble last week. But Bubble Watch did not have UConn as a lock last week. So was Bubble Watch wrong?
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I said bubble watch is conservative on "locking" teams, I thought that explained it.
 
Jerry1714 said:
Now you think Iowa is on the bubble?

Very very odd
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1 top 25 win, 4-8 vs. Top 50, 6-11 vs. Top 100, only 19 wins, 46 rpi. Falling apart down the stretch. Hardly a lock.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
1 top 25 win, 4-8 vs. Top 50, 6-11 vs. Top 100, only 19 wins, 46 rpi. Falling apart down the stretch. Hardly a lock.
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You do realize 68 teams make it right?

They are a lock and it really is not even debatable.
 
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