I like your optimism, but very low chance we finish the year above Creighton.
Yes, losing Alexander to the draft is a big blow, but they still return so many players from last year led by Marcus Zegarowski. Add in Ballock, Jefferson, Bishop and Mahoney and those five players averaged 60 ppg last year.
What was Creighton's biggest issue last year? Interior presence on defense. 6'11 Jacob Epperson is hopefully back from injury and incoming 6'11 freshman Ryan Kalkbrenner is a four-star recruit. Between those two players, you get the program's best two prospects of all time, according to 247. Add in Memphis transfer Antwan Jones and you get a frontcourt that should be much better and should lighten the load on Christian Bishop (6'7) and Denzel Mahoney (6'5) who combined to play about 70% of their teams minutes at the 5.
Creighton is clearly the 2nd best team in the Big East behind Nova, but you can argue UConn has a shot for the 3rd best team along with Xavier, Seton Hall and Providence.