Big 12, ACC and perhaps some flawed strategy

[UConnDan97]

They didn't have to wait 27 months an pay a premium to avoid it like WV.

True, but the money was the same. And I think that the Big East likely felt that the extra money gained in a lawsuit was either not worth the trouble or perhaps not enforceable due to the fact that they didn't ever play a game in the league. But the monetary payment still stood at the full 5 million, so for the purposes of this discussion, the precedent is there...

 

[CTMike]

Guess I'm not good at fact checking from a beach in Mexico. hehe. I thought TCU got off light- may be mixing it up with what fleudslipcon was saying.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

That happened when MD surprised everyone in the ACC and left for the B!G. The ACC can only survive as a power conference if FSU stays in the ACC. FSU is now in a similar position with regards to the ACC as Texas is to the B12.

Tobacco road and FSU both would prefer staying in the ACC and keeping it relevant. They just disagree on how to go about this. That disagreement has been going on for some time. It came to a head with Md leaving. There are two things necessary to stabilize the ACC - a significant improvement with the ESPN contract. And a mending of relations between FSU and tobacco road.

The same can be said of about all ACC schools.

I think at the end of the day, Louisville was added because their team running the program was better than our team. It is that simple. Had nothing to do with football or basketball or anything else. When it is remotely close, people matter, and we have dumb and dumber leading our university and athletic program.

This is all about money for FSU, UNC and UVa. They might eat $3MM or even $5MM a year to stay in the ACC. Unlikely, but possible. they are not taking a $10MM+ a year haircut to stay in the ACC. Either ESPN steps up, or anyone that can get out will get out.

 

[UConnDan97]

Guess I'm not good at fact checking from a beach in Mexico. hehe. I thought TCU got off light- may be mixing it up with what fleudslipcon was saying.

If you are going to insist on spending your honeymoon drinking in the sun and getting nooky in the dark, then you are doing the Boneyard a great disservice, my friend. Smart.....but a disservice...

 

[XOVERX]

This could be the week to tell the tale for the ACC. This could be a very exciting week for college football.

While Florida State has had the luxury to slow-play the B12, since it is obvious that only FSU sufficiently moves the television meter for the B12 at the #11 slot, nevertheless I'm not sure that slow-playing the B12 is FSU's primary gameplan right now.

Personally, I think everyone is waiting to see what move Delany and the B1G make. Speculation is rampant that the B1G is moving to (at least) 16, and Delany sure isn't issuing any denials to squelch the rumors. If, in fact, Georgia Tech, or Virginia, or both, follow Maryland to the B1G, as most rumors suggest, then I think it is fairly reasonable to conclude that the ACC schools being targeted by the SEC will also make final decisions in the very near future. In this scenario, the SEC targets would probably be VPI, and one of UNC or NCSU.

If the B1G does move on the ACC again, causing the SEC to follow suit, and if FSU is not a part of their plans, then FSU will default to its third option -- the B12. Louisville may have been Florida State's addition, but in the end it will be the B1G that determines if the remaining ACC schools remain intact.

If the B1G raids the ACC again for one or two major schools, then I see the ACC losing the entire top half of the conference, including North Carolina, the ACC bell-cow. How can it be otherwise when the ACC contract is so disadvantageous and so many other schools would have defected?

While I have no doubt Florida State and North Carolina want to make things "work" in the ACC, the problem is money. The ACC television contract is just so deficient. How ironic would it be if FSU and UNC remained conference members, but in a different conference, and making significantly more money?

What I find particularly fascinating, given my B12 allegiance, via Texas, is Guy Jones' prediction for the outcome of the B12: Connecticut, Florida State, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, and San Diego State. If that lineup panned out for the B12, it would make for one helluva league, if far-flung. I realize the B12 would not exactly thrill most adherents of this board, but don't shoot the messenger (Guy Jones).

Anyhow, as I say, this could be the single most important week for college realignment since Oklahoma/Georgia vs. NCAA was decided in 1984. It's been a long time coming, too. We'll see soon enough now.

 

[Vuce]

What I find particularly fascinating, given my B12 allegiance, via Texas, is Guy Jones' prediction for the outcome of the B12: Connecticut, Florida State, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, and San Diego State. If that lineup panned out for the B12, it would make for one helluva league, if far-flung.

Thank you for this post XOVERX. This board was getting boring in the last 24 hours. Uconn to the ACC - booooring, Uconn to the Big Ten - overdone....Uconn to the Big 12? Let's start a new thread! HFD - please oblige.....

 

[tzznandrew]

I realize the B12 would not exactly thrill most adherents of this board, but don't shoot the messenger (Guy Jones).

You are not the first person to cite him--somehow all across the internet. It's funny to me, and it reminds me why I shouldn't take anything posted on Twitter seriously knowing his history. I give all the credit to him for actually finding people to listen to him.

 

[Jericho]

I think you're missing on what happened with the new ESPN deal last summer. The tier 3 rights of football were given away, while the tier 3 rights for basketball were kept by the schools. In other words, this is a whole new world for the ACC football schools. Things just changed for them less than a year ago.

I don't think anything you said is correct. For one, the ACC deal dates back several years, not last summer. They simply renegotiated different rates after adding Syracuse and Pitt. But the basic deal remains. Second, I believe the ACC gave up all Tier 3 tv rights. Not just football. Third, the money for those third tier rights is not particularly high. You're talking about one football game (usually against a 1-AA opponent) and a handful of the worst basketball games. What's that worth? Maybe $1.5 million in a best case scenario. The Tier 3 stuff won't be the deal breaker.

 

[Jericho]

Their contract is too long term. The disparity will get bigger and bigger over the years. that disparity is TBD.

With the Big 10, yes. The Big 10 has an uncertain revenue stream due to their own network. That's where the conference is really raking in the big bucks. Unfortunately, there's nothing that suggest the Big 10 wants FSU. The Big 12 has no network, nor any plans to start one (and are limited if they tried)

 

[upstater]

I don't think anything you said is correct. For one, the ACC deal dates back several years, not last summer. They simply renegotiated different rates after adding Syracuse and Pitt. But the basic deal remains. Second, I believe the ACC gave up all Tier 3 tv rights. Not just football. Third, the money for those third tier rights is not particularly high. You're talking about one football game (usually against a 1-AA opponent) and a handful of the worst basketball games. What's that worth? Maybe $1.5 million in a best case scenario. The Tier 3 stuff won't be the deal breaker.

There is so much wrong with your post, I don't know where to start.

The deal was redone, they gave up 3rd tier rights for football, but not for basketball. FSU became infuriated. The board of trustees openly blasted the deal in public.

 

[UConnDan97]

What I find particularly fascinating, given my B12 allegiance, via Texas, is Guy Jones' prediction for the outcome of the B12: Connecticut, Florida State, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, and San Diego State. If that lineup panned out for the B12, it would make for one helluva league, if far-flung. I realize the B12 would not exactly thrill most adherents of this board, but don't shoot the messenger (Guy Jones).

Let me say this to you: if you are the messenger that said to us all that we would be in the Big12 next week, I would guarantee that NOBODY would shoot you!

Keep in mind that when Texas, TT, OU, and OSU were talking to the Pac10 (or Pac12 or whatever the hell they are now), there were a great many fans that were clamoring for the Big East to put out feelers to the rest of your conference mates in order to merge with the Big East and strengthen what was at that point in time an 8-team league, adding KU, KSU, Baylor, ISU, Mizzou, and TAMU to what was UConn, Syracuse, Pitt, WVU, USF, Cincinnati, Rutgers, and Louisville, with TCU coming in for 2012. Imagining that future for the Big East now seems almost like a pipe dream, but for one second in time, it was real.

The timeline was as follows:

September 4, 2011: Reports of Texas, TT, OU, and OSU talking to Pac10. (This is where we were all thinking that good things could happen with a merger)
September 18, 2011: Exactly two weeks later, Syracuse and Pittsburgh announce they are leaving for the ACC.
October 6, 2011: TCU announces it will join the Big12.
October 28, 2011: WVU announces it will join the Big12.

In a span of two months, the Big East went from believing it would turn into a "Super-League" by merging with the remnants of the Big12, to becoming damn near obsolete...

 

[uconnfan68]

I think the whole thread missed Fishy's point.

If the ACC was really worried about the Big 12 expanding, why take Louisville? Wouldn't UNC, Duke and the rest of the schools outside FSU and Clemson be better off with a decent Louisville program that was cheap and available for the Big 12? Especially considering that one of the rumored reasons that Clemson and FSU didn't go to the Big 12 in the spring was because FSU wanted help on the exit fees. If Louisville was ready on a moment's notice to jump to the Big 12, would the Big 12 be that willing to help FSU out with its exit fees, which will probably be necessary to get FSU out of the ACC?

I think that rationale was either BS or just noise created by Jurich in what was a supreme sales job. It didn't make any sense, and if the ACC fell for it, they are incredibly stupid. In reality, I wouldn't be surprised if one of the reasons FSU and Clemson were so adamant about getting Louisville was that they didn't want a cheap Louisville available for the Big 12 as negotiating leverage against FSU and Clemson.

The point was UL should have stayed a tethered goat. I agree.

 

[WestHartHusk]

The point was UL should have stayed a tethered goat. I agree.

What if we are the tethered goat to limit the ACC's damage to 1 (or maybe no) teams leaving?

 

[XOVERX]

Guy Jones has not put up any information for a couple of three days now, but recall again the schools he references to the B12: Connecticut, Florida State, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, and, of all schools, San Diego State.

Jones claims that the draw for the Big 12 is a significant presence in several of the most populous states in the nation: Texas, Florida, California, North Carolina, and Connecticut for a flag in the Northeast Corridor. ESPN/FOX would go nuts with the programming possibilities and the depth of the potential audience. It would also give the B12 a reach into 3 of the most fertile recruiting grounds in the nation. Additionally it would create a premier basketball league with Connecticut, Kansas, North Carolina, and Duke.

Apparently the thought is that a North Carolina / Duke addition would occur because neither the B1G nor the SEC would take such a package deal, given the number of slots each has left for expansion. I'm not sold on this idea at all. I don't think the SEC would go for such a package deal, but I wonder if Delany would? While I would love UNC in the B12, I just don't see the B12 beating out the B1G or the SEC for the Baby Blue. Is Duke really that important to UNC? A package deal? There's rumors about it, but ... really?

It seems like quite a super-big reach, and I notice Jones has been trying to confirm his information, but the idea is most intriguing to consider. Personally, I wish there were a way to fit Miami in there. Pick your beach -- Atlantic or Pacific. I also love the idea of a school in the Northeast Corridor and a school in California. The Big 12 would be on television from 10 am Saturday morning until way into the wee hours of Sunday morning. All day long. $$$.

Nobody else backs Jones up on his information, but then, many believe Jones to be the most accurate prognosticator out there. Anyhow, the speculation is certainly fun if you're into college realignment, which, obviously, I am.

 

[auggie22]

I'm a few steps behind again. Who is Guy Jones?

 

[WestHartHusk]

He came on here a few years ago and was the first to call TCU into the Big East, then called them to the Big12. Had WVU to the Big12 also. He's one of the few people who has stayed above the realignment fray and has typically had some good info. Speculation is he was in management at ESPN in Bristol but recently transferred to NBC Sports in Stamford to help them get up and running.

 

[Waquoit]

I'm a few steps behind again. Who is Guy Jones?

Here's a picture:

 

[UConnDan97]

Really? I thought this was Guy:

 

[Vuce]

You mean it's not him?:

 

[UConnDan97]

There are so many "Guy"s, who can keep them all straight! (wait a minute, that doesn't sound right...)

 

[danlow1963]

I thought this was the Guy? Its not him? How about some Funions?