AP Poll - 1/22

[nelsonmuntz]

Big East getting love with the only two 5 loss teams in Top 25, and both are Top 20.

So far, UConn, Purdue and Kentucky look a step above, and Houston is close. After that it feels like there are 30 teams that could win 4 straight in March. I like Iowa State, Illinois, Texas Tech, Marquette, Creighton, Baylor, Utah, Wisconsin (really like this team). Any of them could go on a March run.

I don’t get Tennessee. They don’t suck, but they have been like Top 7 all season and I don’t get it. There is no way UNC should have the 4th best defense in KenPom. That is just inaccurate. Arizona is a solid team that doesn’t scare me at all in a big game.

 

[WeAreUCONN]

W

Which teams should be ahead of them?

We all dislike Duke but they are a legit top 10 talented team. They’ll probably beat cruddy Carolina 3 times unfortunately and that will propel them upwards.

 

[tzznandrew]

Wisconsin, Marquette, maybe Creighton? Do Baylor and Michigan State wins offset putrid losses against Pitt and GT and justify a ranking just outside the top 10?

So, to be clear, you think it is ridiculous they are 12 but that it would be fine if they were 14 or 15?

Penn State is 9-10 and just beat Wisconsin. Why are we only holding a bad loss against Duke and not Wisconsin? Wisconsin also got beat by like a million by Arizona (who did beat Duke, but not by a ton). Wisconsin is living off that Marquette win.

Marquette. Sure, I guess. They have an extra loss, but PC, Butler, Purdue, and Seton Hall are all better than Georgia Tech, Pitt, and Arkansas. But given where the teams were ranked last week (7 Duke, 17 Marquette) it doesn't seem egregious in poll logic, particularly because Duke was missing two starters for this most recent Pitt loss.

Creighton? Stop it. They have 5 losses, three of which were absolute beat downs. One of those was to UNLV. They don't have a win equal to a N-Baylor.

I think 12 makes a lot of sense given the logic of the polls, and I really only think Marquette has a real case to be ranked ahead of Duke. But Duke wasn't whole in that Pitt loss.

 

[connVA]

So, to be clear, you think it is ridiculous they are 12 but that it would be fine if they were 14 or 15?

Penn State is 9-10 and just beat Wisconsin. Why are we only holding a bad loss against Duke and not Wisconsin? Wisconsin also got beat by like a million by Arizona (who did beat Duke, but not by a ton). Wisconsin is living off that Marquette win.

Marquette. Sure, I guess. They have an extra loss, but PC, Butler, Purdue, and Seton Hall are all better than Georgia Tech, Pitt, and Arkansas. But given where the teams were ranked last week (7 Duke, 17 Marquette) it doesn't seem egregious in poll logic, particularly because Duke was missing two starters for this most recent Pitt loss.

Creighton? Stop it. They have 5 losses, three of which were absolute beat downs. One of those was to UNLV. They don't have a win equal to a N-Baylor.

I think 12 makes a lot of sense given the logic of the polls, and I really only think Marquette has a real case to be ranked ahead of Duke. But Duke wasn't whole in that Pitt loss.

Sorry but we’ll have to agree to disagree. Three out of four Duke losses are to bad teams (forgot Arkansas). If you think that’s the 12th best team in the country, go with it.

 

[Tenspro2002]

I have posted on here several times about Dayton because my daughter graduated from Dayton in 2021. The 2023-4 team looks alot like the 2020 Obi Toppin team but not quite as good (Obi was special). DaRon Holmes is Dayton's highest ever recruit (247 #54 in 2021). He tested the NBA after last season but came back this year and is the leading candidate for A10 player of the year. Dayton runs a very efficient offense and have some impressive 3 point shooters. But they rely heavily on Holmes and the 3 and if either are not working well, they are vulnerable as their defense is average at best.

They are 15 in the NET rankings with a 3-1 Quad 1 record. Their out of conference schedule was good and they have wins over St John's, LSU, SMU and Cincinatti. Their 2 losses are against Northwestern and Houston.

As for Dayton in general, what a great basketball school. Tons of fan support and a great basketball environment. And their fans travel very well.

I hope so! I have some longshot futures bets on Dayton to the Final Four.

 

[uh-no]

W

We all dislike Duke but they are a legit top 10 talented team. They’ll probably beat cruddy Carolina 3 times unfortunately and that will propel them upwards.

duke was missing 2 starters vs pitt. They still shoudln't have lost to pitt at home, but i think it's why they may have gotten some sympathy from the voters. They're wildly inconsistent, still.

 

[WeAreUCONN]

duke was missing 2 starters vs pitt. They still shoudln't have lost to pitt at home, but i think it's why they may have gotten some sympathy from the voters. They're wildly inconsistent, still.

I haven’t watched Duke much but they seem to be not playing to the level of their talent which means their coaching isn’t good.

 

[tzznandrew]

Sorry but we’ll have to agree to disagree. Three out of four Duke losses are to bad teams (forgot Arkansas). If you think that’s the 12th best team in the country, go with it.

I asked you to name teams that should be ahead of them, and you came up with three, only one of which I think has a credible argument.

Where should they be ranked and which teams should be ahead of them? It's very easy to say "This isn't the 12th best team!" but then you look around at all the other teams and realize most of them suck. Meanwhile Duke is ranked right where their advanced metrics suggest they should be.

 

[PNolanFan]

I haven’t watched Duke much but they seem to be not playing to the level of their talent which means their coaching isn’t good.

I read a recap of the duke/pitt game and was shocked at how some things are phrased. The writer seemed to feel bad for Duke due to their "lack of dept" and they had to rely on guys who werent ready yet to play minutes. And yet you look at it and the bench is littered with former 4 and 5 star recruits. It is a failure to develop talent problem there. They could still win a national championship but it would be because of their overwhelming talent advantage not anything to do with the coaching

 

[MU in MKE]

UNC at 3 is so funny. I am in favor of it since we beat them but they are the worst top 5 team I have ever seen. That joke of a conference is propping them up

I'm no fan of UNC, but I think they have a good case for top 5. You might just be thinking of the UNC that played UConn, but that was their worse performance of the year. They've been solid, the analytics back it up, their resume losses are to UConn and Kentucky (which is surprising people with their turn around), and OT to Nova. I begrudgingly have to say that they're probably worthy.

 

[UConnRock]

I haven’t watched Duke much but they seem to be not playing to the level of their talent which means their coaching isn’t good.

Proctor looked like a superstar in the making last year. I know he had some injury issues, but him being 5th in scoring this year is a surprise. Filipowski and Roach are gone this year, but Proctor has dropped out of some 1st round mocks after being in the lottery range. McCain looks like he could be a one-and-done if he keep improving.

 

[tzznandrew]

I read a recap of the duke/pitt game and was shocked at how some things are phrased. The writer seemed to feel bad for Duke due to their "lack of dept" and they had to rely on guys who werent ready yet to play minutes. And yet you look at it and the bench is littered with former 4 and 5 star recruits. It is a failure to develop talent problem there. They could still win a national championship but it would be because of their overwhelming talent advantage not anything to do with the coaching

I saw that and laughed. They did have injuries and that should matter in the the discussion. But they have 7 RSCI Top 25 guys and another 2 Top 100.

 

[connVA]

I asked you to name teams that should be ahead of them, and you came up with three, only one of which I think has a credible argument.

Where should they be ranked and which teams should be ahead of them? It's very easy to say "This isn't the 12th best team!" but then you look around at all the other teams and realize most of them suck. Meanwhile Duke is ranked right where their advanced metrics suggest they should be.

And I disagree with the argument that Duke is better than those three teams. I’d take any of them in a matchup with Duke and their two sub-100 NET losses right now. Hell, I’d take pretty much anyone in the top half of the current BE standings (maybe with the exception of Xavier) over them. Clearly not a talent issue- it’s a coaching issue. The good news is there’s a little tournament in a few months to settle all this.

 

[bbsamjj]

Who...would you put ahead of UNC?

#4 Houston? Their best win is over Texas Tech. They have losses to Iowa State and TCU.
#5 TN? They lost to UNC.
#6 KY? They have THREE loses to unranked teams (UNC-W, Texas A&M, and now SC)
#7 KS? They have arguably the best trio of win in the country, and they were ranked #3 last week, but they also now have two losses to unranked teams (UCF, WVU)
#8 Auburn? Their best win is Ole Miss? With a loss to App St
#9 AZ? They have two losses to unranked teams in Stanford and Wash St
#10 IL? Their best win is FAU, and they recently lost to MD.

I'm not going to argue that UNC has the third most talented team in the country, or that the ACC is a great conference, but they have wins against TN, OK, Clemson (on the road), and their only losses are back in 2023--to UConn, Kentucky, and Villanova--all on neutral courts.

Unlike nearly every other team in the top 10, they haven't tripped themselves up. But still lots of games left to be played.

 

[HeGotGame]

Who...would you put ahead of UNC?

#4 Houston? Their best win is over Texas Tech. They have losses to Iowa State and TCU.
#5 TN? They lost to UNC.
#6 KY? They have THREE loses to unranked teams (UNC-W, Texas A&M, and now SC)
#7 KS? They have arguably the best trio of win in the country, and they were ranked #3 last week, but they also now have two losses to unranked teams (UCF, WVU)
#8 Auburn? Their best win is Ole Miss? With a loss to App St
#9 AZ? They have two losses to unranked teams in Stanford and Wash St
#10 IL? Their best win is FAU, and they recently lost to MD.

I'm not going to argue that UNC has the third most talented team in the country, or that the ACC is a great conference, but they have wins against TN, OK, Clemson (on the road), and their only losses are back in 2023--to UConn, Kentucky, and Villanova--all on neutral courts.

Unlike nearly every other team in the top 10, they haven't tripped themselves up. But still lots of games left to be played.

Your only losses being on the road to a team ranked 18th in the coaches and a team ranked 19th last week is not a knock.

Dayton is also a better win then Texas Tech, both by the polls and metrics. By the metrics Utah is as well. If you are giving UNC credit for winning at Clemson (36th in Kenpom), you need to give credit for Houston winning at Xavier (34th in Kenpom).

Houston is a better team, but one being 3 and one being 4 is completely meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

If UConn is a 1 seed I would much rather see UNC as the 2 over Houston.

 

[bbsamjj]

You're right on Houston--missed the wins over Dayton, and now with the road win over BYU certainly gives them a ton more claim to a higher ranking (no doubt why they are #1 in NET).

If you just go by NET, here is the current AP top 10's best win/worst loss:

UConn: #6 UNC/#60 Seton Hall
Purdue: #3 Arizona / #78 Northwestern
UNC: #4 TN / #37 Villanova
Houston: #5 BYU / #36 TCU
TN: #11 Illinois / #40 Miss St
KY: #6 UNC/ #115 UNCW
KS: #4 TN / #155 West Virginia
Aub: #39 Texas A&M / #73 App St
AZ: #9 Alabama / #109 Stanford
IL: #21 Mich St / #98 Maryland