Hard to say.
A very good Pac12 contract ends things. A very bad Pac12 contract ends things for us.
We need a medium Pac12 contract that is short enough from the B12 contract to induce around one Pac12 member to jump.
As always with conference realignment, our window is very small.
I will add that a decent PAC-12 media contract could mean PAC-12 could be poaching B12 schools in the future as well.
If schools like Oregon state
My understanding is the original 8 Big 12 members would have to subsidize the UConn addition by itself with the UT/OU exit fees and they won't do that. No idea why adding a PAC school makes a media payment different. Just what I heard.
Why would UConn need subsidizing? If the B12 add UConn today, it would gain a very valuable media property in the East. I am pretty sure media partners would pay pro rata for UConn since they will gain huge media markets along with two blue blood basketball programs.
The only flagship state school in the B12 now is Kansas. Kansas also has Kstate to compete with along with multiple pro teams like Chiefs and Royals etc.
Uconn would bring the state of CT with its large media markets including a part of NYC and New England. CT is also a bigger state than Kansas with no pro teams. UConn would also be the #1 academic school in the B12 as a public ivy.
I know people keep bashing UConn football, but UConn was very competitive before a string of bad coaching hires. When UConn played in the Big East for football, it won 2 Big East championships and went to a BCS bowl. Uconn had close to 33k football season ticket holders. The fact is when UConn football was winning, fans showed up. UConn finally got a real coach in Jim Mora. He is building the program, and I truly believe UConn will be very competitive within 5 years in the Big 12 competing for Big 12 championships. Today, Mora just landed a 4 stars Texas QB with offers from schools like Arizona, Colorado, and others. Being in the B12, it would be even easier to recruit for Mora.
Uconn also has mid P5 to top P5 football facilities. Mora said it is better than UCLA's, and many recruits started as such.
UConn would immediately be one of the top media properties in the B12 from day even with the current state of the football program.