Andre Drummond should have stayed at UConn

[Dogdeacon]

Andre is making $2,356,320 this year and $2,462,200 next year both the max amounts available for the 9th pick in the draft. After that Pistons have options for 2yrs to extend at $2.57MM then $3.27MM.

The best guess for #1 pick in this year's draft is Nerlens Noel who I believe is yet to declare and I know has a torn ACL and an even more limited offensive game than Drummond had as a UConn frosh. Andre would therefore UNQUESTIONABLY be the #1 pick and don't give me any BS about AD risking getting hurt because Noel DID GET HURT AND IS STILL likely the #1 pick.

1st year salary for #1 pick is $5,324,280 > 4,818,720 (2yrs Drummond contract)

That's not even getting to 3rd year when #1 2013 pick's salary will be +3M over Andre's contract. And I think in either case he likely gets a new long-term contract after 2014 or 2015, so no basis to claim AD would get to free agency or longer contract sooner. Its simple, he would have made more coin by staying at UConn.

 

[upstater]

Andre is making $2,356,320 this year and $2,462,200 next year both the max amounts available for the 9th pick in the draft. After that Pistons have options for 2yrs to extend at $2.57MM then $3.27MM.

The best guess for #1 pick in this year's draft is Nerlens Noel who I believe is yet to declare and I know has a torn ACL and an even more limited offensive game than Drummond had as a UConn frosh. Andre would therefore UNQUESTIONABLY be the #1 pick and don't give me any BS about AD risking getting hurt because Noel DID GET HURT AND IS STILL likely the #1 pick.

1st year salary for #1 pick is $5,324,280 > 4,818,720 (2yrs Drummond contract)

That's not even getting to 3rd year when #1 2013 pick's salary will be +3M over Andre's contract. And I think in either case he likely gets a new long-term contract after 2014 or 2015, so no basis to claim AD would get to free agency or longer contract sooner. Its simple, he would have made more coin by staying at UConn.

He got hosed in last year's draft though. I'm sure he was disappointed.

 

[8893]

AD could very easily have gotten hosed this year, too, because of the lack of exposure due to our post-season ban.

 

[Perspective]

Retrospectively. In hindsight. Yada yada.

From a business perspective, a review of past decisions should generally not revolve around results, but rather around the information that was available at the time.

What information was available a year ago that would have suggested your conclusion?

There was no guarantee that Drummond would improve as he did. If he had pulled a flat line his soph year, with no BET and no NCAA, his stock may have dropped. Who knows?

Can't question his call. The NBA teams screwed up. If he was drafted where he should have been drafted he would have been top 3 and your argument would be invalid.

 

[phillionaire]

He also could have gotten hurt like Nerlens did too. That could have killed his draft stock. He's playing really well in the NBA. There was no reason for him to stay this year, especially since we were banned from tournament play.

 

[tykurez]

You know what's funny - the (somewhat) inverse could also be true. Andre Drummond should have never attended UConn.

Had there been no age limit rule, one could argue that Drummond straight out of high school had a higher stock than Drummond after 1 year at UConn.

Regardless, he's making fantastic money and he's playing well above expectations. So much so that it seems he's well on his way to a max-level type contract in the future.

 

[Waquoit]

There was no guarantee that Drummond would improve as he did. If he had pulled a flat line his soph year, with no BET and no NCAA, his stock may have dropped. Who knows?...

Very true. Drummond just said the switch for him flicked when got to the NBA. He was very lucky to be drafted by a team that had a plan and resources for his long-term development. He wasn't just thrown to the wolves. As a result, he's thrived. Does he thrive if he has to waste time in class when he could be devoting it to his career?

I don't get what the OP was trying to say by "And I think in either case he likely gets a new long-term contract after 2014 or 2015, so no basis to claim AD would get to free agency or longer contract sooner." The sooner you get there, the sooner your options kick-in. What am I missing?

 

[businesslawyer]

AD could very easily have gotten hosed this year, too, because of the lack of exposure due to our post-season ban.

The media loses sight of players due to a post-season ban. The thought that NBA scouts would is utterly bizarre.

 

[Brochacho]

Drummond absolutely made the right choice. He should have been #2 overall, its not his fault the idiot GMs let him slide to 9.

 

[upstater]

Though I initially countered the OP, I have to side with him too. You simply have to make such calculations when you're a player. If, for instance, he was told he would likely go where he was drafted, you need to take that into account.

Of course, Calhoun always recommended player's leave early if they were ready because the second contract makes much of this discussion moot. $2-3 million a year less for 4 years can easily be remedied by an extra year earning $12 million (sorry, I don't actually know how NBA contracts work).

 

[prankster]

The media loses sight of players due to a post-season ban. The thought that NBA scouts would is utterly bizarre.

This.

 

[HuskyBballFan]

The OP is assuming that Drummond knew he would be taken 9th. Before he declared, he was probably told that he was a top 10 pick, with a chance to move even higher if he impressed in the pre-draft workouts. You'd have to insane to pass that up.

 

[8893]

The media loses sight of players due to a post-season ban. The thought that NBA scouts would is utterly bizarre.

Really? How well do you think Ben Gordon would have fared in the draft if he didn't have the BET and NC run? And do you think Emeka would have gone as high as he did? Conversely, do you think Mateen Cleaves would have been a first round pick--much less as high as #14--without that run?

NBA scouts, GMs and owners are still human. The notion that they are not susceptible to being swayed by hype is bizarre to me.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Retrospectively. In hindsight. Yada yada.

From a business perspective, a review of past decisions should generally not revolve around results, but rather around the information that was available at the time.

What information was available a year ago that would have suggested your conclusion?

There was no guarantee that Drummond would improve as he did. If he had pulled a flat line his soph year, with no BET and no NCAA, his stock may have dropped. Who knows?

Can't question his call. The NBA teams screwed up. If he was drafted where he should have been drafted he would have been top 3 and your argument would be invalid.

You asked what information was available a year ago:
1. Calhoun always did a good job of talking to teams and scouts and figuring out approximately where a player would be drafted. The consensus of experts AT THE TIME AD DECLARED last year on Andre was anywhere from #6 down
http://articles.courant.com/2012-04...dre-drummond-wilbraham-monson-uconn-officials

Then he moved up in some projections due to good workouts and losing some weight. But by the eve of the draft the best guess was in fact #9
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2012/

2. The salarly scales are known/preset.

These are the facts. Sure the 2013 draft order was unknowable but it was a weak class. Arguably at that point it was Noel, and guards at top (Shabazz Muhammad, Ben McLemore, MSmart). Drummod would have been top-4 minimum. I did not disagree with Andre's decision at the time because of the postseason ban. However from a financial standpoint I don't see how its debatable. If you signed any contract a year ago for 50% of what you could have gotten this year it is worth debating and using as a source of information (as you suggest) for future decisions.

You said "a review of past decisions should generally not revolve around results"?! Good luck with that. Yes I think you are correct when you say you should emphasize information available at the time, although you also need to consider what you over-looked or possibly should have known and didn't factor in. Ultimately though results do matter.

Obviously this is purely for discussion purposes as it can't be un-done. But in the future when somone with Andre's potential is considering leaving early in a loaded draft class it is very worth considering returning to be a top-3-ish pick. It is a data point. I think I argued this way back when with Rudy Gay and Caron Butler.

 

[prankster]

Really? How well do you think Ben Gordon would have fared in the draft if he didn't have the BET and NC run? And do you think Emeka would have gone as high as he did? Conversely, do you think Mateen Cleaves would have been a first round pick--much less as high as #14--without that run?

NBA scouts, GMs and owners are still human. The notion that they are not susceptible to being swayed by hype is bizarre to me.

Then, how is it that those Euro-kids migrate to the top of the draft so often?

 

[nomar]

Really? How well do you think Ben Gordon would have fared in the draft if he didn't have the BET and NC run? And do you think Emeka would have gone as high as he did? Conversely, do you think Mateen Cleaves would have been a first round pick--much less as high as #14--without that run?

NBA scouts, GMs and owners are still human. The notion that they are not susceptible to being swayed by hype is bizarre to me.

8893 is right, as a general matter. Scouts may know who players are, but GMs and owners always get a lot more comfortable about drafting a guy they've seen perform well in the NCAA Tournament. A lot of drafting comes down to what you can sell your fans, for better or worse. So businesslawyer's comment (that good scouts will know who all the talented players are) is besides the point, IMO.

Kemba would have slid a lot further than he did without that 11-game run, no question about it.

All of that having been said, with regard to Drummond, nobody would have missed him or forgotten about him.

As to dogdeacon's point, yeah, with 20/20 hindsight, he probably would have benefited financially, in the long-run, by returning to school. But I don't think that means he made the "wrong" decision. He's making good money and he's doing well. I can't imagine he regrets anything.

 

[bmayuc]

Andre just sat out 2 months with a back injury. That identical injury alone could have killed his draft chances.

Andre made the decisions he made, which IMO where the best he could have made at the time he made them with the information he had.

Now, he is making millions. And if he plays like he has been playing he will make MILLIONS UPON MILLIONs.

He'll be aright. And I LOVE watching it happen.

 

[nomar]

Then, how is it that those Euro-kids migrate to the top of the draft so often?

They've got their own brand of hype. Everybody wants the next Dirk. Of course there's more Skitisvilis out there...

 

[8893]

All of that having been said, with regard to Drummond, nobody would have missed him or forgotten about him.

And to be clear, I was not suggesting that he would have been forgotten without a post-season. But it very easily could (and likely would imo) affect where he went within the top ten.

 

[UCHuskies08]

He will earn all that and more back in his second contract. And he will have had an extra year in life of being a millionaire.

 

[tzznandrew]

Let's say Andre plays until he is 36 (just made that number up--it doesn't matter).

Unless you have compelling evidence that playing at 19 shortens his career, he got an extra year of millions of dollars.

I'd have love to have had him stay. If there was no ban, perhaps he would have. But he made the right decision for himself, and if he proves himself a superstar, he gives us marketing going forward.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I don't get what the OP was trying to say by "And I think in either case he likely gets a new long-term contract after 2014 or 2015, so no basis to claim AD would get to free agency or longer contract sooner." The sooner you get there, the sooner your options kick-in. What am I missing?

If an NBA team wants to at a certain point (I think as early as 3rd year, maybe 4th?) rather than exercise options they can and will renegotiate a higher salary. It is not done frequently because there is a contractual way to keep players on the cheaper scale. But there are instances of re-doing contracts for superstars (Derrick Rose created a specific rule that allowed Chicago to redo even the #1 picks salary but that requires all-nba and/or MVP). Mostly I think it is done in 4th year to avoid restricted free agency and or pissing the guy off too much.

James Harden is a better example - he was under club option this year (his 4th) but then eligible to be a restricted free agent. OK City offered him a new contract at $53MM or so over 4yrs (tearing up rookie scale option contract) but he said no and was traded. Then Houston tore up the option and gave him $80MM over 5yrs.

So for Drummond you'd compare his current contract locked in for 4yrs:
1.
A 2012/13 - 2015/16 4yrs - $10.66M
Arguably in this case due to Andre's medium development arc he is not upgraded to a large contract until club options run out.

2. 2013 Draft
2013/14-2015/16 3yrs - $16.7M

So he is +$6MM on same timeline, IF he develops in same progression, so in #2 after 3rd year he is so good that TEAM X locks him up to a longer term deal in 4th year (rather than risking pissing him off and underpaying him in 4th year ala Harden).

In both cases come 2016-17 he starts making say $15-20MM per year.

If in #2 the team keeps him for another year it'd be at $7.4MM (30% raise)
add say $15M to #1 and $7.4MM and then he's slightly financially better off coming out when he did by 25.66MM > $24.08MM

 

[Dogdeacon]

Let's say Andre plays until he is 36 (just made that number up--it doesn't matter).
Unless you have compelling evidence that playing at 19 shortens his career, he got an extra year of millions of dollars.
I'd have love to have had him stay. If there was no ban, perhaps he would have. But he made the right decision for himself, and if he proves himself a superstar, he gives us marketing going forward.

Possibly, but arguably as big a factor in career longetivity is # of NBA seasons. Not compelling evidence, but it is reasonable to at least contend AD plays 1 more year without that grind.

I find this debate worth having because I am always perplexed that most college basketball fans seem to believe coming out early is always best. I think this case challenges that belief and is interesting to look back on because;
1. UConn was better in 2012-13 than expected and actually was still on TV and on national radar up until the tournaments.
2. The 2013 Draft class is historically weak, again I think no question AD is #1 - no one is disagreeing with me there.
3. The marketing tzzn mentions for UConn going forward for a #1 pick is huge. UConn has never had one and this would have been a HUGE boost to recruiting and gotten UConn right back at top of headlines.

So I conclude from a UConn perspective and AD financial perspective he should have stayed. I'd expect at least some UConn fans to agree with me or at a minimum join me in wishing AD was at UConn and we were about to celebrate and get benefits of AD being the school's first #1 pick.

 

[Pudge]

Andre is making $2,356,320 this year and $2,462,200 next year both the max amounts available for the 9th pick in the draft. After that Pistons have options for 2yrs to extend at $2.57MM then $3.27MM.

The best guess for #1 pick in this year's draft is Nerlens Noel who I believe is yet to declare and I know has a torn ACL and an even more limited offensive game than Drummond had as a UConn frosh. Andre would therefore UNQUESTIONABLY be the #1 pick and don't give me any BS about AD risking getting hurt because Noel DID GET HURT AND IS STILL likely the #1 pick.

1st year salary for #1 pick is $5,324,280 > 4,818,720 (2yrs Drummond contract)

That's not even getting to 3rd year when #1 2013 pick's salary will be +3M over Andre's contract. And I think in either case he likely gets a new long-term contract after 2014 or 2015, so no basis to claim AD would get to free agency or longer contract sooner. Its simple, he would have made more coin by staying at UConn.

Huh ...

On the BIG Stage, he has just proven his 10 year Value in THAT LEAGUE. The NBA now knows what Andre Drummond CAN do. I am pretty sure that the Pistons (or others) can put together a Contract outside that Rookie deal and tie him up for a long time. He could be at $15-20m based on what they have seen in these few months. Then do the Discounted Cash Flow on that through a career. He is far better off in the NBA today given he passed the Productivity test there.

 

[Gurleyman]

The one flaw in simply doing the math is that not every million is created equal. That first paycheck represents a huge change in your lifestyle and your family's lifestyle. Turning pro this year was the difference between making $2.5 million and making $2000 in meal money on the road (and getting some sneakers). By contrast, the hand-wringing about Ray Allen giving up a million now to play with the Heat, after he's already made $300 million in his career, isn't the same thing. His kids are still eating a nice meal.

He has a huge paycheck coming when his rookie contract expires, so he'll end up set for life.