Analysis and Comments - UConn vs USC - Elite Eight (Game 4 - NCAA Tournament)

[Cuango]

Don't see how UConn wins this game. We had 3 players play 40 minutes and 1 play 38. All of them were completely gassed which is mainly why Duke came back from a 20 point deficit. If Geno won't play Q, I can see USC winning going away as we tire out in the 4th quarter. USC is much more than Juju and no one will be able to stop her. Swarm her and the rest of the team will step up.

Given the injuries, I thought the elite 8 was our max upside and we made that. Of course it's why you play the games, but I'll be shocked if we come away with a win.

It is a tough one to win, that’s for sure but these guys are in top condition and they may surprise us. USC is certainly not some unbeatable powerhouse! Arizona, who is basically a less talented clone of us in terms of their roster, played them within 2 and 3 points just a few weeks ago! I have no doubt we can win but we have to play well and avoid foul trouble. If those two things happen, I think we win!

 

[Zonepress]

Don't see how UConn wins this game. We had 3 players play 40 minutes and 1 play 38. All of them were completely gassed which is mainly why Duke came back from a 20 point deficit. If Geno won't play Q, I can see USC winning going away as we tire out in the 4th quarter. USC is much more than Juju and no one will be able to stop her. Swarm her and the rest of the team will step up.

Given the injuries, I thought the elite 8 was our max upside and we made that. Of course it's why you play the games, but I'll be shocked if we come away with a win.

Well
For what it’s worth uconn for betting purposes
Is a 3 pt favorite

 

[Bone Dog]

The basic formula is the same for UConn as it is for any team. If your offense has 3 pillars you are very hard to stop. But our third pillar is a freshman, Ash. It’s asking a lot of a freshman to play that large a role in April, but that’s where we are. Two scorers is not enough. Coach Lawson understood this and focused on stopping Ash. Geno seems to have anticipated it and ran several plays for KK and she came through with 12 points. That turned out to be enough. If we win this next one it will be because of Paige and Aaliyah, no doubt. But Ash and KK will have to play huge.

What does USC have? The second best player in D1, but we don’t have to stop her. It’s the other two pillars we need to focus on, Marshall and Forbes and I think we have a shot at that. Juju will score 20-30. Nika just has to keep her from making her teammates better than they are, and she has to avoid fouling out. Even if Juju scores 40, it’s okay as long as Marshall and Forbes don’t get 20 between them.

Are the girls up to it? Ideally yes. As long as they’re not too tired. KK is more than a match for Padilla. Aaliyah is too much for Marshall. Forbes and Davis have to control Paige and Ash. Are they up to it? We’ll see tomorrow.

We all know our girls will start to falter in the 4th from fatigue. If they can build a lead in the third, maybe get up 15-20, they may be able to weather the inevitable USC run. But it is likely to be a very close call. Paige will score what she has to, 20-30, and Aaliyah could score 20 if Ash scores 20 as well.

One thing that could surprise me is if Lindsay Gotlieb has Juju guard Paige. I don’t think even she can stop Paige, and the effort might take her out of her own offense. But it could be interesting. I expect Forbes or Davis to be assigned to Paige.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Geno makes a couple of comments here and some first time observations about you know who. 3:30 for you know who.



I listened to him here and get the impression he's starting to mourn the season. Maybe it is just him being tired.

 

[Childhood]

They are quite tall. The O boards will kill us.

 

[Topdawg]

If our team is able to keep up the defensive pressure, as they have done so far in the tournament, we have a good shot at beating USC.

 

[cferraro04]

I think you are being a bit of a UCONN biased fan in this particular analysis. Benches are not " even." When was the last game that ICE scored 9.2 points? And we have one person vs their three. And Shade and Arnold are not UCONN advantages. Probably the reverse but, at best " even." You are underrating the USC players here. Another intangible ( which also favors USC ) is that many of their starters
are " graduates." Ours are freshmen. I think this game is an upset if UCONN wins. And it will take a better combined effort than we have thus far seen. This, from a really tired team.

Of course, I am "a bit of a UConn-biased fan", I would never deny that. I based my BENCH analysis on what each team will bring off the bench. I used only Q and Ice because if it were me and I was coaching this game I would find a way to get both players 5-10 minutes in an attempt to rest our starters and to have them ready if we were to get one of our players in foul trouble. I used the average points and rebounds that Q and Ice have averaged during the year. I don't believe we will see Ines at all in this game. Additionally, USC plays their starters most of the game and they only give between 8-10 minutes to three of their bench players. Who is to say that their bench players will play to their averages against the UConn defense? At the end of the day the bench will not be a major factor for either of these teams. This game will be decided by the starters. I think if you re-read my analysis, especially the Intangible section you will see that I covered USC's more experienced players, I also covered that Ice has been the only player off the bench in the NCAA. Geno usually greatly shortens his bench during the post-season.

I do agree with your submission that "it will take a better-combined effort" than what we saw in the Duke game. Finally, since UConn is a three seed and USC is a one seed you are also a win by UConn would be considered an upset.

 

[PacoSwede]

Lots of good opinions here, but one thing that's clearly in the team's favor, which I have not seen mentioned: USC is facing The UConn Huskies.

The legendary Huskies, with UConn written on their uniforms (or maybe HUSKIES or CONNECTICUT since they've been used in the past) and the aura of Rebecca, DT, Birdie, Maya, Stewie and other giants of the game -- not to mention Paige, the first and only freshman named WCBB player of the year, and Geno -- enveloping their foes.

We on the BY don't think about the program's towering reputation much. It's the usual for us. But for USC, it's not something that's routine. It's a bit intimidating, I would think.

And USC has a disadvantage: It hasn't had the FF experience for what? 40 years or so. None of them have had to face up to anything like the FF, the pressure, the hoopla, the media scrutiny. But UConn, who they have not encountered recently, has been in this situation regularly for a couple of decades and succeeded 11 out of 12 tries. USC players know this.

Do you think that might get into their heads? They would likely deny that it could rattle them, or that it even enters their mind, but it's bound to affect them, if only subconsciously.

 

[Bone Dog]

The difference in experience is real and is an advantage, no doubt. USC has a few grad transfers and upperclassmen. Juju is the only freshman I think. But those transfers bring experience from mediocre programs. It’s worth something. But it isn’t quite the same as playing for a top program in a P5 conference. Ash and KK don’t have much experience, and they’re still teenagers. But they have spent a season playing for Geno and with Paige Aaliyah and Nika. Hopefully that’s enough to mitigate the experience issue.

 

[BrianUC]

I'm afraid this game will come down to how it's refereed. If Juju is able to draw lots of cheap fouls on our guys, we're cooked. If it's called fairly and evenly then we'll win.

 

[Surly1]

The game can be analyzed and scrutinized from every angle. Instead pf analysis, I offer some empirical evidence. In her freshman season, Paige scored 28 to lead UConn over a really good Baylor team to reach the Final Four.

In her interrupted sophomore year, she came back from an early season surgery, and scored 27 to lead UConn over a really good NC St team. It was an Elite 8 game that turned out to be an all-time classic, bringing UConn back to the Final Four.

Tonight, UConn is playing another Elite 8 game against a really strong USC team. This game is a toss-up, and as far as I know, Paige will be playing tonight. If history is destined to repeat itself..............

 

[Bigboote]

The one thing UConn needs to do to win is not put USC on the foul line. It seems as though in close to half their close wins, USC’s opponent outscored them from the floor, but USC had a huge advantage from the foul line.

 

[NutmegDog]

I'm afraid this game will come down to how it's refereed. If Juju is able to draw lots of cheap fouls on our guys, we're cooked. If it's called fairly and evenly then we'll win.

I often wonder if officiating crews take into account factors like that one team is basically 5 - 6 players deep (depending on which version of Ice we get), so that they ease up on the borderline fouls in the interests of keeping things competitive. I do agree that if either Nika or Aaliyah are sent to the bench early, things could get out of hand and we'll all be able to go to bed early.

 

[Ozimoto]

This will be a tough game. UConn has been here before. USC has not. That may be the difference.

 

[GoUconn7961]

It'll be interesting to see if they have shoot around today. Sometimes Geno skips it when he wants them to get some rest.
A couple of times it worked in their favor as they shot better in the game.
This one is way too close to call, but in the prognostication thread I did pick USC to take it.

 

[HopJim]

I'm afraid this game will come down to how it's refereed. If Juju is able to draw lots of cheap fouls on our guys, we're cooked. If it's called fairly and evenly then we'll win.

While I "liked" this comment, it is also common to see 1-2 inadvertent, silly fouls by some players each game. This would be a great game to play hard defense and if the refs make a perceived poor call, not being in a position to have it materially matter.

 

[Rowdy831]

Don't see how UConn wins this game. We had 3 players play 40 minutes and 1 play 38. All of them were completely gassed which is mainly why Duke came back from a 20 point deficit. If Geno won't play Q, I can see USC winning going away as we tire out in the 4th quarter. USC is much more than Juju and no one will be able to stop her. Swarm her and the rest of the team will step up.

Given the injuries, I thought the elite 8 was our max upside and we made that. Of course it's why you play the games, but I'll be shocked if we come away with a win.

UConn has better players and both teams had tough games on Saturday. Two days of rest is enough for young people to recover and USC doesn't play fast or pressure on defense so it won't be as taxing as Duke was. Nika playing good defense without fouling will be vital.

 

[Pharos]

Over at ESPN Voepel and Pelton have a lot to say, but not about UConn or Paige. Little dismissive I thought.

 

[Rowdy831]

Agree. 100%. I had them getting to the sweet 16 but that’s it. They already busted the ceiling I had for them and I’m GLAD.

HOWEVER, the offense needs to be light years better against USC. Dukes defense had something to do with it, but they have to find a way. Ash in particular. She has got to get a few points anyway. Her play seems to be hero or literal zero on scoreboard. Her defense is great I think.

Knocking off USC is going to be a lot to ask. It’s possible, that’s why we play the game. I’ll never put a limit on what Paige can do. The rest of the team needs to help her though.

They actually match up better with USC than Duke. Take JuJu out of the lineup and you basically have three players who were Ivy leaguers and none of them are better than any player UConn has playing. UConn wins if they don't get into early foul trouble.

 

[Pharos]

Defense and general fundamentals - the team that plays "the right way" best will win.

 

[HuskyNan]

Kalana will be there!

 

[Geew1992]

Kalana will be there!

She is always in the building, but never gets the shine!

 

[JellyBean]

Nobody expected this run. After that Texas game and the lineup changes, especially when we went small ball, folks were down in the dumps and wrote this season off. Heck some folks were talking about a 10 loss season. But as the season progressed, there were signs of "Yeah, this team isn't all that bad. They might piece a decent run together".

I like our chances against USC. We have the talent. The key will be how we are handling the fundamentals of the game, shooting, dribbling, passing, defending, and rebounding. Plus how the refs call the game.

 

[CTBballfan243]

Lots of good opinions here, but one thing that's clearly in the team's favor, which I have not seen mentioned: USC is facing The UConn Huskies.

The legendary Huskies, with UConn written on their uniforms (or maybe HUSKIES or CONNECTICUT since they've been used in the past) and the aura of Rebecca, DT, Birdie, Maya, Stewie and other giants of the game -- not to mention Paige, the first and only freshman named WCBB player of the year, and Geno -- enveloping their foes.

We on the BY don't think about the program's towering reputation much. It's the usual for us. But for USC, it's not something that's routine. It's a bit intimidating, I would think.

And USC has a disadvantage: It hasn't had the FF experience for what? 40 years or so. None of them have had to face up to anything like the FF, the pressure, the hoopla, the media scrutiny. But UConn, who they have not encountered recently, has been in this situation regularly for a couple of decades and succeeded 11 out of 12 tries. USC players know this.

Do you think that might get into their heads? They would likely deny that it could rattle them, or that it even enters their mind, but it's bound to affect them, if only subconsciously.

I don't think the UConn name on the front of the uniform scares anyone any more. DT, Sue Bird, Stewie, Maya Moore et al aren't walking through the door to suit up for the Huskies.

 

[PacoSwede]

...
I like our chances against USC. We have the talent. The key will be how we are handling the fundamentals of the game, shooting, dribbling, passing, defending, and rebounding. Plus how the refs call the game.

i'm pretty sure they'll be fine with dribbling, passing, defending and rebounding -- they're always solid there.

shooting, OTOH, is fickle as Hades: it can be horrible or stupendously great for uconn. but that's true for all teams. out of huskies' control.

like the refs.

both can be game-deciders.

this is what makes me nervous. things that are random. they can work in your favor, or crush you. this year, uconn is particular vulnerable on the refs front, sadly.