Analysis and Comments - UConn vs USC - Elite Eight (Game 4 - NCAA Tournament)

[Nyskier]

I haven’t had the best feeling about this game, but I did vote for a UConn win on the predictions thread. UConn looked exhausted at the end of the Duke game, and this year we have had trouble with great guards. Our team has been fantastic considering what they faced. I celebrate them!

 

[omshanti]

USC does not bring the defensive pressure that Duke brought. It’s going to be another grind and I‘m looking forward to it. What I’m finding out is that UConn will be ready. Baylor gave them a run and I think UConn can take it. The gloom and dormers were saying the same thing the other night. Stay out of foul trouble and take it to them. Juju is good, so what. USC will be as nervous as UConn, probably more. The pressure is on them, media hype and all. Thanks for the analysis. Go Huskies

 

[Longtime fan]

I think this will be a tough game for the Huskies. But it's not impossible. I honestly think the hard losses they've faced this year have helped them a lot with this year's tournament. It's given them a lot to learn from. And they know now that they can win even if things aren't going perfectly well offensively as long as they can dominate defensively.

I think (hope) that everyone will be "on" tomorrow.

That is what we need. The first game when everyone is "on." The best game for each player so far. A big ask for a tired team. But possible.

 

[Longtime fan]

The basic formula is the same for UConn as it is for any team. If your offense has 3 pillars you are very hard to stop. But our third pillar is a freshman, Ash. It’s asking a lot of a freshman to play that large a role in April, but that’s where we are. Two scorers is not enough. Coach Lawson understood this and focused on stopping Ash. Geno seems to have anticipated it and ran several plays for KK and she came through with 12 points. That turned out to be enough. If we win this next one it will be because of Paige and Aaliyah, no doubt. But Ash and KK will have to play huge.

What does USC have? The second best player in D1, but we don’t have to stop her. It’s the other two pillars we need to focus on, Marshall and Forbes and I think we have a shot at that. Juju will score 20-30. Nika just has to keep her from making her teammates better than they are, and she has to avoid fouling out. Even if Juju scores 40, it’s okay as long as Marshall and Forbes don’t get 20 between them.

Are the girls up to it? Ideally yes. As long as they’re not too tired. KK is more than a match for Padilla. Aaliyah is too much for Marshall. Forbes and Davis have to control Paige and Ash. Are they up to it? We’ll see tomorrow.

We all know our girls will start to falter in the 4th from fatigue. If they can build a lead in the third, maybe get up 15-20, they may be able to weather the inevitable USC run. But it is likely to be a very close call. Paige will score what she has to, 20-30, and Aaliyah could score 20 if Ash scores 20 as well.

One thing that could surprise me is if Lindsay Gotlieb has Juju guard Paige. I don’t think even she can stop Paige, and the effort might take her out of her own offense. But it could be interesting. I expect Forbes or Davis to be assigned to Paige.

We need our "A" game. Every player has to have the best game their season to date. It is possible.

 

[CleverLiz]

i'm pretty sure they'll be fine with dribbling, passing, defending and rebounding -- they're always solid there.

shooting, OTOH, is fickle as Hades: it can be horrible or stupendously great for uconn. but that's true for all teams. out of huskies' control.

like the refs.

both can be game-deciders.

this is what makes me nervous. things that are random. they can work in your favor, or crush you. this year, uconn is particular vulnerable on the refs front, sadly.

Geno has consistently preached players have to be able to adjust to how the refs are calling it! There were times when UCONN was too soft and getting roughed up and then UCONN “got physical” Let’s goooooo UCONN!!!!

 

[LETTERL]

Ok, UCONN...you have a chance to share tournament history with NC State as this would be the first time we've had TWO programs with both their men's and women's team in the Final Four in the same year.

Git 'er done!

 

[Blueballer]

My feeling was when Aubrey Griffin went down that was the last straw of injuries that would keep us from the final four. Paige is great but that made the available useful players so low that IMO it's a bridge too far now. Hoping for the best of course but thinking we're probably at the end of the road. Watching USC a number of times this year they are pretty darn good. Back in the day of beautiful "less contact" basketball you could do it but now that we have the "roller derby" style of physical play it's almost impossible to have any gas left in the tank to play an entire game. Let alone stay out of foul trouble. Heck you don't even have to committ real fouls, since the game is now too fast for the refs. Ask Edwards about that from her experience in the last game.

As an aside, Paige was exhausted at the end the last game because unlike Clark she actually applies a LOT of energy to her defensive game.

In conclusion - I hope UCONN makes me look like a bumbling idiot and wins this game!

 

[The CDR-Ret]

Thank you so much for this, @cferraro04! It's been a long season and you've been there for us the whole way. Thank you.

I think you're right about pretty much all of it, including the score. This is a winnable game for us, if fatigue doesn't drag the girls down.

As for Nika on Juju, I think it's most important for Nika not to foul out. She's not going to stop her from scoring 20 or 30 points. We need her on the floor at the end of the game. If she can limit Juju's touches a little bit and make it difficult for her to pass off the drive, Nika will have done enough. Juju will score, but don't let her beat us with passing and free throws.

The matchup that may be the most entertaining to watch is KK on Kayla Padilla. They are similar in some ways -- Kayla may be better as a 3 pt shooter, but KK is better off the dribble. But I think KK is a much fiercer defender and a sneaky rebounder. The difference in the game may come down to how well the guards rebound.

I believe Geno & CD {and company} are THE BEST at a two day turn around in the history of women's basketball, as their wins in the NCAA tourney display.

God bless the Huskies!!!! On to the first of many more Final Fours!!!

Just the players need to believe, and step out in confidence that God's got this.
We as fans "don't got this," and it doesn't matter.

MC Hammer would say, "can't touch this..."

 

[The CDR-Ret]

14th seed Jackson State...much better than its seed. Good height, good guard play.
6th Seed Syracuse...are you kidding me...Fair, Whoolley, and Burrows...nah they were under-seeded.
7th Seed Duke...It was arguably the toughest game in the regionals...#2 defense in the country...yeah, with tongue in cheek...that was an easy game!

Just like one of the S.E.A.L. mottos: "the only easy day was yesterday!"

Almost time for the Huskies to "Light up" the scoreboard!

Go Huskies!!!

 

[The CDR-Ret]

Over at ESPN Voepel and Pelton have a lot to say, but not about UConn or Paige. Little dismissive I thought.

I always take that as a good sign. ESPN's talking heads not so accurate this time of year, it's a trend for many years!

Go Huskies!!!!

 

[LETTERL]

I always take that as a good sign. ESPN's talking heads not so accurate this time of year, it's a trend for many years!

Go Huskies!!!!

I laugh now at any dribble coming out of that organization.

NC State men were ranked #8 in their Elite 8 power rankings.
NC State women were ranked #8 in their Elite 8 power rankings.

Who is one of the final four teams standing in both tournaments? They know not of what they speak.

 

[Blueballer]

My feeling was when Aubrey Griffin went down that was the last straw of injuries that would keep us from the final four. Paige is great but that made the available useful players so low that IMO it's a bridge too far now. Hoping for the best of course but thinking we're probably at the end of the road. Watching USC a number of times this year they are pretty darn good. Back in the day of beautiful "less contact" basketball you could do it but now that we have the "roller derby" style of physical play it's almost impossible to have any gas left in the tank to play an entire game. Let alone stay out of foul trouble. Heck you don't even have to committ real fouls, since the game is now too fast for the refs. Ask Edwards about that from her experience in the last game.

As an aside, Paige was exhausted at the end the last game because unlike Clark she actually applies a LOT of energy to her defensive game.

In conclusion - I hope UCONN makes me look like a bumbling idiot and wins this game!

SO GLAD I was dead wrong. Call me any names you want. What they did tonight is remarkable! Such determination.

 

[Cornell Lt]

I'm giving UConn a big advantage. My reasoning is that I have USC winning big and I've been wrong all year long on the prognostication thread.

It worked !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[cferraro04]

I think you are being a bit of a UCONN biased fan in this particular analysis. Benches are not " even." When was the last game that ICE scored 9.2 points? And we have one person vs their three. And Shade and Arnold are not UCONN advantages. Probably the reverse but, at best " even." You are underrating the USC players here. Another intangible ( which also favors USC ) is that many of their starters
are " graduates." Ours are freshmen. I think this game is an upset if UCONN wins. And it will take a better combined effort than we have thus far seen. This, from a really tired team.

Let's see now:

1. Ashlynn Shade vs Kaitlyn Davis - ADVANTAGE - UCONN...hmmm Kaitlyn, 3 points, 9 rebounds, 1 assist. 5 fouls; Ashlynn, 5 points, 6 rebounds, 4 fouls...Maybe a push at this position...in a close game like this one...you could argue a very slight advantage for UConn.

2. KK Arnold vs Kayla Padilla - ADVANTAGE - UCONN...and, Kayla, 3 points, 2 assists, 3 steals; KK, 4 points, 5 rebounds, 1 assist. Again even though KK got into foul trouble her impact on the game with her defense did give her a slight advantage.

3. Paige Bueckers vs MacKenzie Forbes - ADVANTAGE - UCONN, MacKenzie played over her average. She had 24 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 block. Paige, had 28 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks. I think I got that one right.

4. I don't think I underrated the USC players. Ju Ju was every bit as good as advertised. I had it as an ADVANTAGE - USC. It took a team effort to defend her and she still was able to get 29 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 2 blocks. Nika got into foul trouble early but, she still managed 8 points, 5 rebounds, 8 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block. I had that one right too...ADVANTAGE to the freshman phenom.

5. Aaliyah Edwards vs Rayah Marshall...I had it as ADVANTAGE - UCONN. Rayah had 11 points, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block. Aaliyah had 24 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist and 1 block. I think I had this one right too.

6. Bench...I had it as ADVANTAGE - EVEN - Our bench came through with 11 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, and 1 block. USC's bench had 3 points and 2 rebounds. I guess I got that one wrong...I should have called it ADVANTAGE - UCONN.

You were right, however, in that I am a homer and I am guilty of being a bit of a UConn-biased fan. But, truthfully, it is hard not to be. I love my Huskies.