Analysis and Comments - Game 25 - UConn vs South Carolina

[jdote33]

I just rewatched the first quarter. They missed shots but were not playing bad. Both Shade and Paige had some great looks. Additionally some of the shots Watkins made in the quarter were tough. KK did have a stretch where she got blocked emphatically and then took a bad three but I agree her energy wasn't bad. Honestly I'd take that first quarter despite it probably being the quarter they got outscored the most. It wasn't like they were disorganized or playing timid. They just missed shots. Will probably watch the rest of the game later.

 

[Darwin]

I just rewatched the first quarter. They missed shots but were not playing bad. Both Shade and Paige had some great looks. Additionally some of the shots Watkins made in the quarter were tough. KK did have a stretch where she got blocked emphatically and then took a bad three but I agree her energy wasn't bad. Honestly I'd take that first quarter despite it probably being the quarter they got outscored the most. It wasn't like they were disorganized or playing timid. They just missed shots. Will probably watch the rest of the game later.

Wait until the second and esp the third quarter.

 

[LoTrader]

I have long been an admirer of UCONN basketball from the west coast. UCONN injuries are real & most definitely have legitimate impact on the overall performance of the team, and especially to those players who have remained healthy. What I have seen missing from UCONN's team this year is the defensive maturity of so many great UCONN teams of the past. UCONN's best teams were defensive monsters. UCONN's most dominating defensive teams would often not allow a team to get a shot off, or force a horrible late in the shot clock prayer. And as many have pointed out, UCONN's great teams also had 5 players on the court who could score. Hopefully the injury bug will not slay UCONN next season and the fans will enjoy a team with a deep bench. Having watched what Oregon State went through the past few seasons (injuries and portal losses), a return to the UCONN Teams of the past is surely in the cards. Also, could someone ask Geno to call Scott Rueck and explain how to get TOP 10 teams on your non-conference schedule. Thanks.

 

[HuskyNan]

I have long been an admirer of UCONN basketball from the west coast. UCONN injuries are real & most definitely have legitimate impact on the overall performance of the team, and especially to those players who have remained healthy. What I have seen missing from UCONN's team this year is the defensive maturity of so many great UCONN teams of the past. UCONN's best teams were defensive monsters. UCONN's most dominating defensive teams would often not allow a team to get a shot off, or force a horrible late in the shot clock prayer. And as many have pointed out, UCONN's great teams also had 5 players on the court who could score. Hopefully the injury bug will not slay UCONN next season and the fans will enjoy a team with a deep bench. Having watched what Oregon State went through the past few seasons (injuries and portal losses), a return to the UCONN Teams of the past is surely in the cards. Also, could someone ask Geno to call Scott Rueck and explain how to get TOP 10 teams on your non-conference schedule. Thanks.

I would add that due to the youth of the freshmen, maturity in general is in short supply. Impatience was a part of the poor shooting yesterday and that is an immature approach. Geno said the team was trying to make up the deficit on the next shot, another symptom. Fortunately, this bunch seems coachable. I just hope they’ve kept their confidence intact

 

[Dognusty]

What I am saying it was a predictive analysis and the way it played out is a little different than predicted because it is impossible to predict what a coach will do on game day. So, considering your suggestions...(mind you at least half of the match-up played out as Paige did play defense on Kitts and Shade did play defense on Hall). The conclusion was essentially the same...with Paige dominating her match-up; and Shade playing essentially even. I think we are both in agreement that the only important conclusion was the UConn vs South Carolina which was born out by the score.

It should be noted that in every one of these Game Analyses in the past and going forward, I am bound to make an incorrect assumption that Player A will be matched up with Player B.

I agree with the conclusions however I don't agree with he start and finish analyzing. How can you say Hall lost to Shade when they were never matched up consistently. Hall lost to Paige and Kitts player about even to Shade. That should be the conclusion and u should note that. I'm just saying

 

[Dognusty]

I would add that due to the youth of the freshmen, maturity in general is in short supply. Impatience was a part of the poor shooting yesterday and that is an immature approach. Geno said the team was trying to make up the deficit on the next shot, another symptom. Fortunately, this bunch seems coachable. I just hope they’ve kept their confidence intact

What's so funny about this narrative is UCONN had More experience on the court that'll SC. Kitts is really a freshman she basically sat the bench her senior year. Tessa and Fuilwileu are freshmen. Raven is in her second year after injury, Watkins is a Sophomore who, until Cardoso say down, was a replacement. Stop the narrative of how much better you could be. Talent is being lost on Uconn bench and it is not at SC.

 

[HuskyNan]

What's so funny about this narrative is UCONN had More experience on the court that'll SC. Kitts is really a freshman she basically sat the bench her senior year. Tessa and Fuilwileu are freshmen. Raven is in her second year after injury, Watkins is a Sophomore who, until Cardoso say down, was a replacement. Stop the narrative of how much better you could be. Talent is being lost on Uconn bench and it is not at SC.

I have no idea what you’re talking about. I said the young players played in an immature way and that I hoped it didn’t affect their confidence. I didn’t say anything about South Carolina. Take your attitude somewhere else

 

[cferraro04]

What's so funny about this narrative is UCONN had More experience on the court that'll SC. Kitts is really a freshman she basically sat the bench her senior year. Tessa and Fuilwileu are freshmen. Raven is in her second year after injury, Watkins is a Sophomore who, until Cardoso say down, was a replacement. Stop the narrative of how much better you could be. Talent is being lost on Uconn bench and it is not at SC.

Really? Let's see now....

UConn - Aaliyah - Sr.; Muhl - Sr.; Paige RS - Jr.; Ashlynn Shade - Fr; KK - Fr; Off the Bench - "Amari DeBerry - Jr.; Ines Bettencourt - So.; Ice Brady - R-Fr; Qadence Samuels - Fr.

In the starting line-up, UConn has (2) Sr.; (1) Jr.; (2) Fr.
Coming off the bench UConn has (1) Jr.; (1) So.; (2) Fr

South Carolina - Cardoso - Sr.; Te'Hina - Sr.; Hall Junior; Watkins - So.; Raven Johnson - So. Off the Bench - Sakima Walker - Sr.;
Sania Faegin - Jr.; Chloe Kitts - So.; Milaysia Fulwiley - Fr; Tessa Johnson - Fr.; Sahnya Ja - Fr.

In the starting line-up, South Carolina has (2) Sr., (1) Jr., (1) So., and (1) freshman.
Coming off the bench South Carolina has (1) Sr., (1) Jr., (1) So., and (3) Freshmen.

As you can see South Carolina has more experience on the floor (starting line-up) than UConn and,
South Carolina has more experience on the bench than UConn.

While Watkins might be a replacement or a reserve...she averages 20 minutes per game
Fulwiley averages 19 minutes per game
Tessa Johnson averages 15 minutes per game

Contrast that to the bench player for UConn:

Ice Brady gets 15.2 minutes per game.
Qadence Samuels gets 12.2 minutes per game.
Ines Bettencourt gets 5.6 minutes per game.
Amari DeBerry gets 4.6 minutes per game.

Yes, relative to a lot of elite teams in Women's NCAA basketball South Carolina is a young team. However, in comparison to which players South Carolina and UConn can put on the floor South Carolina is more experienced than UConn.

 

[bballnut90]

Really? Let's see now....

UConn - Aaliyah - Sr.; Muhl - Sr.; Paige RS - Jr.; Ashlynn Shade - Fr; KK - Fr; Off the Bench - "Amari DeBerry - Jr.; Ines Bettencourt - So.; Ice Brady - R-Fr; Qadence Samuels - Fr.

In the starting line-up, UConn has (2) Sr.; (1) Jr.; (2) Fr.
Coming off the bench UConn has (1) Jr.; (1) So.; (2) Fr

South Carolina - Cardoso - Sr.; Te'Hina - Sr.; Hall Junior; Watkins - So.; Raven Johnson - So. Off the Bench - Sakima Walker - Sr.;
Sania Faegin - Jr.; Chloe Kitts - So.; Milaysia Fulwiley - Fr; Tessa Johnson - Fr.; Sahnya Ja - Fr.

In the starting line-up, South Carolina has (2) Sr., (1) Jr., (1) So., and (1) freshman.
Coming off the bench South Carolina has (1) Sr., (1) Jr., (1) So., and (3) Freshmen.

As you can see South Carolina has more experience on the floor (starting line-up) than UConn and,
South Carolina has more experience on the bench than UConn.

While Watkins might be a replacement or a reserve...she averages 20 minutes per game
Fulwiley averages 19 minutes per game
Tessa Johnson averages 15 minutes per game

Contrast that to the bench player for UConn:

Ice Brady gets 15.2 minutes per game.
Qadence Samuels gets 12.2 minutes per game.
Ines Bettencourt gets 5.6 minutes per game.
Amari DeBerry gets 4.6 minutes per game.

Yes, relative to a lot of elite teams in Women's NCAA basketball South Carolina is a young team. However, in comparison to which players South Carolina and UConn can put on the floor South Carolina is more experienced than UConn.

This is a little cherry picked and misleading if your data implies that Sakima Walker has more experience than Paige Bueckers. I think a more accurate way of looking at experience is seeing who has direct playing experience and their role on their team.

UCONN has 3 players with a wealth of experience in Edwards/Bueckers/Muhl. Edwards/Muhl are 4 year starters, Bueckers has been the star player her whole career and is probably the most experienced and relied upon player out of the 3. After that, it's all freshmen in the rotation. I wouldn't even mention Deberry/Bettencourt since neither can crack the lineup. UCONN has ample experience in some spots but none in others and no insurance policy of the bench for when their freshmen struggle.


South Carolina has a couple of similarly experienced veterans in Pao-Pao and Cardoso (though she didn't play vs UCONN), and a returning rotation player in sophomore Raven Johnson. After that, it's a slew of players who were seldom used the previous year but have thrived in larger roles this season (ex. Watkins/Feagin/Kitts/Hall), plus 2 freshmen (Johnson/Fulwiley). Jah/Walker aren't rotation players so I don't think it's relevant to bring them up here.


I think it's hard to say one team overall is more experienced than the other--their roster make ups are just different. Due to injuries, UCONN's is imbalanced and their players are either extremely experienced or have no experience. With SC, they have a couple of experienced players, a slew of players without much playing experience prior to this year, and a couple without experience.

 

[HuskyNan]

UCONN has 3 players with a wealth of experience in Edwards/Bueckers/Muhl. Edwards/Muhl are 4 year starters, Bueckers has been the star player her whole career and is probably the most experienced and relied upon player out of the 3. After that, it's all freshmen in the rotation. I wouldn't even mention Deberry/Bettencourt since neither can crack the lineup. UCONN has ample experience in some spots but none in others and no insurance policy of the bench for when their freshmen struggle

Nika and Aaliyah have played 120 college games; Paige has played in 67.

 

[bballnut90]

Nika and Aaliyah have played 120 college games; Paige has played in 67.

I think there's something to be said for the amount of experience Paige has in a go to role. She's played fewer games overall but has more experience being relied upon to carry the team and make plays compared to the others. Compared to SC's go to player in Cardoso, Paige has far more experience playing in a go to role and navigating defenses designed to slow her down compared to Kamilla even if Kamilla has played more games overall.

 

[Skeets]

Your matchups are off. Bree Hall guarded Paige. I would say advantage UConn. However Kitts and Shade would be even.

It's hard to predict what a coach will do. Plus, during the course of the game assignments change, switching on screens, players getting breathers, foul trouble, etc. Case in point, I'm of the opinion that Nika did a good job on Hidalgo while actually guarding her. Hidalgo scored when Nika got switched off on a screens and of course when Nika was sitting on the bench with foul trouble (no, I'm not excusing Nika's foul troubles, that's a problem too). However, several posters have said that Nika couldn't guard Hidalgo.

 

[HuskyNan]

I think there's something to be said for the amount of experience Paige has in a go to role. She's played fewer games overall but has more experience being relied upon to carry the team and make plays compared to the others. Compared to SC's go to player in Cardoso, Paige has far more experience playing in a go to role and navigating defenses designed to slow her down compared to Kamilla even if Kamilla has played more games overall.

Aaliyah is the go-to player, not Paige. Perhaps you should watch a few more games

 

[Fairfield Fan]

POST GAME COMMENTARY

I had to watch the game while visiting my grandchildren in New York. South Carolina just proved to be too much for UConn. As a team, they had swagger, played with confidence, played great defense, and made shots. I take my hat off to Dawn great job coaching a great group of players.

During the Analysis above I was pretty much on target except for the SCORE...let's face it I'm a homer I like being as fair as I can when deciding the match-ups and who prevails in each match-up. However, when it comes to predicting who will win the game...I confess...my glasses are Husky Blue and even though my head says one thing...my heart just can't bring me to let the words "we will lose" escape from my mouth. So, a review of the match-ups and some quick comments as I prefer not to dwell on the loss but look forward to how this team can improve going into the postseason.

ANALYSIS

PREDICTED

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Ashlyn Watkins, 6'3" - Ashlyn will be called upon to replace Kamilla Cardoso...she will more than likely do a decent job but will probably end up being "Cardoso Light". Ashlyn averages 9.0 points and 7..3 rebounds. Ashlyn has good size but she is 6'3" not 6'7" and will not be as imposing in the paint. Ashlyn is, however, a good defensive player averaging a team-high 2.7 blocks per game. As I said in the comments section of this analysis Aaliyah Edwards is playing her best basketball. I would expect Dawn to play much more man-to-man defense than what we have seen with teams like Seton Hall who packs the middle and challenges UConn to make 3-point shots. Aaliyah is averaging 17.7 points per game and 8.8 rebounds. I think Ashlyn will find defending Aaliyah one-on-one to be extremely challenging. If Aaliyah can stay out of foul trouble I believe Aaliyah will come out on top in this match-up. If Ashlyn should get in foul trouble look for Sonia Faegin 6'3" Jr. to come into the game. Sonia isn't as productive in the post as Ashlyn is. Sonia averages 6.5 points and 3.2 rebounds per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

ACTUAL

In this match-up, I had it right...however, Ashlyn was better than advertised and it was closer than I thought it would be.
Aaliyah had 20 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 block
Ashlyn had 15, points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks, and 2 steals
Consistent with the call in the Game Analysis...ADVANTAGE (albeit slight) - UCONN


PREDICTED

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs Cloe Kitts, 6'2" - Cloe has a height advantage over Paige however, I think that Paige without having to worry about double and triple teams will be a very difficult assignment for Cloe to have to do on her own. I would look for Dawn to bring help should Paige prove to be a difficult one-on-one assignment. Cloe is a solid player averaging 9.4 points and 6.1 rebounds. With her height advantage, Cloe could be a tough defensive assignment for Paige. And a big concern for UConn is that Paige does not get into foul trouble. To put it simply there is just no replacement should we lose Paige to fouls. Paige averages 20 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.1 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers are just irreplaceable with this current team. If Paige stays on the court she will dominate at this position.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

ACTUAL

In this match-up, I also had it right...but, I must say I was very impressed with Cloe KItts...
Paige had 20 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 block and 2 three-pointers
Cloe had 14 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block...she also fouled out of this contest.
Consistent with the call in the Game Analysis...ADVANTAGE - UCONN


PREDICTED

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Raven Johnson, 5'9" - Raven is South Carolina's main facilitator. Raven averages 9.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. This match-up is crucial to the game. Nika needs to be able to stay with Raven and try to keep the ball out of her hands while staying out of foul trouble. This is a tall order as Raven is an excellent points guard who rarely fouls and only turns the ball over 1.6 times per game. Nika averages 7.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. The problem with Nika is that on occasion she makes silly fouls averaging 2.5 fouls per game. UConn will need Nika to stay on the floor. Nika will also need to make shots if left open. This match-up should be exciting.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

ACTUAL

In this match-up, I had it wrong...I thought that Nika would be able to contain Raven but Rave proved how tough a player she is and she dominated in this match-up, especially in the rebounding.
Nika had 6 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal,and 2 three-pointers and unfortunately she also had 5 turnovers.
Raven had 10 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals
The call for this match-up in the Analysis was ADVANTAGE - EVEN....However, based on game data that call has to be changed from EVEN to ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA.


PREDICTED

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Bree Hall 6'0" - Ashlynn gives up two inches to Bree. Bree, being a junior is also a bit more experienced than Ashlynn. However, Ashlynn has been playing consistently and doesn't play like a freshman. Bree averages 10 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn, on the other hand, averages 11.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. It is amazing how close these players' statistics are. Statistically, they appear to be the same player with Ashlynn having a slight edge in points per game.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

ACTUAL

In this match-up, I also had it wrong...I predicted that this match-up would be even but Ashlynn played well in a high-profile game once again causing me to think that this kid is not playing like a freshman...she is poised, plays solid defense, and is consistent on the offensive end.
Ashlynn had 14 points, 2 rebounds, 2 three-pointers and 1 block.
Bree had 4 points, 1 assists, 1 block
So the call on this match-up must be changed from EVEN to: ADVANTAGE - UCONN


PREDICTED

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Te-Hina Paopao, 5'9" - Te-Hina being a senior gives her an advantage over KK in experience. Te-Hina is the second half of a back-court tandem that has paid big dividends for Dawn. She is a prolific 3-point shooter averaging 2.4 threes per game. Te-Hina averages 11.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1 steal per game. Te-Hina only turns the ball over 1.6 times per game. KK averages 9.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and .7 three-pointers per game. KK turns the ball over 1.8 times per game. Statistically, Te-Hina has the advantage in assists, points, and three-pointers per game while KK has the advantage in steals per game. Given that Te-Hina is a senior and her statistical advantages...
ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

ACTUAL

In this match-up, Te-Hina dominated she had an incredible game. KK showed that she is still a freshman and needs more time to adjust to the college game.
KK had 2 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, and 1 block (she had a bad shooting night but, not a bad all-around game)
Te_Hina had 21 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, and 5 three-pointers.
Consistent with the call in the Game Analysis - ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

BENCH

PREDICTED - ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

ACTUAL

South Carolina's bench outplayed UConn...
South Carolina had 19 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, and 2 three-pointers.
UConn had 3 points, 1 rebound, and 1 three-pointer
Consistent with the analysis - ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

The problem with this player to player matchup and analysis is that the South Carolina starters played far fewer minutes. So if you were to do this position-to-position and aggregated all of the points, rebounds, blocks, etc., then South Carolina would come out far ahead at each position. To just put in the Bench as if it were one position fails to acknowledge that the SC players dominated during the minutes they were in the game, and the four bench players also continued to extend the lead when they went in. There's no surgar coating it: we were beaten soundly by the best team in the nation. By far.

 

[Gamecockfan77]

It is hard to predict what a coach will do on game day...so the match-ups were made according to statistics, height, and position played. It doesn't matter in regards to predictive match-ups on who plays who on game day...it is a statistical analysis. With regards to Hall playing Bueckers you are right...it stays Advantage UConn as that match-up is even more lop-sided and the point was that my original predicted match-up conclusion at least in this case was correct regardless of who guarded Paige. As far as Shade's match-up with Kitts who for the most part played in the post with Bueckers playing defense on her. If we look statistically at that match-up it technically falls in line with my original prediction that had the Shade/Hall match-up as ADVANTAGE - EVEN or (arguably slight advantage - UConn as how many points did UConn score off fouls created by the player, Ashlynn assisted on 2 baskets compared to Kitts assisting on only one basket).

Ashlynn Shade had 14 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 blocks, and 2 three-pointers, 2 turnovers, 1 foul.
Cloe Kitts had: 14 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, 0 three-pointers, 3 turnovers, and 5 fouls.

But, all of this predictive match-up is merely an exercise to look at the pregame analysis a little differently, to provide perspective. The only match-up that mattered in this case was UConn vs South Carolina and clearly, the conclusion was overwhelmingly...
ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

Shade had a pretty rough shooting day and ultimately didn't have much of an impact.

But she absolutely played hard and unafraid.

There was never any chance Kitts was going to guard Bueckers. Just wouldn't have made any sense.

 

[Darwin]

Why do the S.C. young players

Really? Let's see now....

UConn - Aaliyah - Sr.; Muhl - Sr.; Paige RS - Jr.; Ashlynn Shade - Fr; KK - Fr; Off the Bench - "Amari DeBerry - Jr.; Ines Bettencourt - So.; Ice Brady - R-Fr; Qadence Samuels - Fr.

In the starting line-up, UConn has (2) Sr.; (1) Jr.; (2) Fr.
Coming off the bench UConn has (1) Jr.; (1) So.; (2) Fr

South Carolina - Cardoso - Sr.; Te'Hina - Sr.; Hall Junior; Watkins - So.; Raven Johnson - So. Off the Bench - Sakima Walker - Sr.;
Sania Faegin - Jr.; Chloe Kitts - So.; Milaysia Fulwiley - Fr; Tessa Johnson - Fr.; Sahnya Ja - Fr.

In the starting line-up, South Carolina has (2) Sr., (1) Jr., (1) So., and (1) freshman.
Coming off the bench South Carolina has (1) Sr., (1) Jr., (1) So., and (3) Freshmen.

As you can see South Carolina has more experience on the floor (starting line-up) than UConn and,
South Carolina has more experience on the bench than UConn.

While Watkins might be a replacement or a reserve...she averages 20 minutes per game
Fulwiley averages 19 minutes per game
Tessa Johnson averages 15 minutes per game

Contrast that to the bench player for UConn:

Ice Brady gets 15.2 minutes per game.
Qadence Samuels gets 12.2 minutes per game.
Ines Bettencourt gets 5.6 minutes per game.
Amari DeBerry gets 4.6 minutes per game.

Yes, relative to a lot of elite teams in Women's NCAA basketball South Carolina is a young team. However, in comparison to which players South Carolina and UConn can put on the floor South Carolina is more experienced than UConn.

minutes played by bench players is obviously a function of productivity. The two players off SC’s bench that play the most minutes are freshman….

 

[visitingcock]

Why do the S.C. young players

minutes played by bench players is obviously a function of productivity. The two players off SC’s bench that play the most minutes are freshman….

Actually, I think sophomore Watkins gets the most minutes per game. ( though she has several starts now)

 

[Tonyc]

Cferraro Great analysis. We dont know who's guarding who but I commend you for taking the time and Im sure it was alot of time and thought and effort you put into your posts. I look forward to it every game. I will say this and we will never know the outcome. If Azzi Caroline who both would average double digits and add in Jana and Yana and Griff, I would think UConn wouldve won. I dont care what anybody else thinks Azzi and Caroline are prolific scorers. We knew preseason UConn was depleted and theyve won 20 games. They may win 30 this season with 5 stars on the bench. Not to scabby. We can talk about next season if IF everybody is healthy but then alot of inexperience and alot of great scorers something we lack this season. What we have gotten this season is alot of playtime for freshman who may not have played if everybody was healthy at least not the minutes theyre seeing now. So we wait to see how Geno prepares and teaches and develops these kids for the rest of the season. Our freshman have talent they lack experience at the college level and theyre gettin a taste of it this season. Next season.....we will have to wait and see. I once again thank you and MSGT for you analysis before every game and those who nit pic both of you well just ignore them. They are entitled there their own opinion just like everybody else. I personally believe UConn will win every game and I think everybody who posts to this board knows we well enough to know that. I believe if you believe you can win you have a chance but if you dont think you can win you cant and you treat both those imposters the same.