All you need to know about Aresco

[upstater]

This is what I'm talking about:

You are trying to measure the real values of individual programs using what the collectives are paid. IT CAN'T BE DONE. The values of the collectives are not the sums of the individuals. What the collectives get paid is a function of timing, opportunity, contractual obligations, how the contract holder can monetize the rights....

No, I'm not measuring real values of teams. You can't get that even though I pointed it out numerous times. I stated facts. When you add Butler, Richmond and Xavier the contract skyrockets. That doesn't mean those teams are worth more. It means that the CYO7 contract is being valued by something other than the collective parts, and the level of competition, which is obviously much lower. In other words, Frank's point about the level of competition doesn't hold true. And that's what I wrote originally before you jumped in with inane negative value comments.

 

[zls44]

We know Fox is overpaying for the C7. They're doing it to get a national network off the ground.

They spend money. NBC is all talk. Difference.

 

[upstater]

We know Fox is overpaying for the C7. They're doing it to get a national network off the ground.

They spend money. NBC is all talk. Difference.

Let me put it to you guys this way. There is now an incentive to get Louisville, Rutgers, the CYO7, etc., out of the conference as soon as possible. You don't lose any money by doing so, you only make money.

 

[RS9999X]

What they did was terra forming and are skimming the best.

The C-7 will have a territorial stamp, a brand identity. I'd rank it the 3rd best conference behind the ACC and BiG once the smoke clears.

In any given year it will be better than the MVC, the SEC, the PAC-12, the remaining A-10 or NNBE or C-USA. Better than the Big-12 most years.

Lunardi has the Big Ten leading the pack with 7 bids. The ACC will top that next year.

The Big 12 has 6 but Baylor played their way off the list with 3 losses in a row. Next update the Big-12 is down to 5 teams.

The PAc-12 has 6 but AZ State lost with its 88 RPI and is likely looking in and the PAC-12 down to 5 teams.


The C-12?

Here's the potential C-12 teams with bids this years
Butler
VCU
Georgetown
Marquette
St Louis
Villanova
Creighton

Bubble
St Johns
Xavier (They play the top 3 teams in their last 4 games. 3 home games out of 4).

That deserves a premium price tag. The 3rd best conference.

The NNBE? The 8th best behind the MWC the C-12 and the Big 5. A 4 bid conference if Temple and Cincy schedule enough good schools OOC to raise their RPI. Otherwise it's like the old A-10. 4 decent teams playing for 3 slots

 

[upstater]

What they did was terra forming and are skimming the best.

The C-7 will have a territorial stamp, a brand identity. I'd rank it the 3rd best conference behind the ACC and BiG once the smoke clears.

In any given year it will be better than the MVC, the SEC, the PAC-12, the remaining A-10 or NNBE or C-USA. Better than the Big-12 most years.

Lunardi has the Big Ten leading the pack with 7 bids. The ACC will top that next year.

The Big 12 has 6 but Baylor played their way off the list with 3 losses in a row. Next update the Big-12 is down to 5 teams.

The PAc-12 has 6 but AZ State lost with its 88 RPI and is likely looking in and the PAC-12 down to 5 teams.


The C-12?

Here's the potential C-12 teams with bids this years
Butler
VCU
Georgetown
Marquette
St Louis
Villanova
Creighton

Bubble
St Johns
Xavier (They play the top 3 teams in their last 4 games. 3 home games out of 4).

That deserves a premium price tag. The 3rd best conference.

The NNBE? The 8th best behind the MWC the C-12 and the Big 5. A 4 bid conference if Temple and Cincy schedule enough good schools OOC to raise their RPI. Otherwise it's like the old A-10. 4 decent teams playing for 3 slots

I wonder sometimes if you guys even know how to read.

I am not discussing here the future NBE versus the CYO7.

If your point is that this conference you list above is better than a conference without Butler and Xavier but with Louisville, UConn, Notre Dame, then you are hopelessly lost.

 

[upstater]

No sooner than I posted about the incentive for Louisville and the like to leave ASAP but now Blauds says that in the next few days, the CYO7 exit will be all settled.

But the money is so short that it simply doesn't matter much for UConn if it's split 18 ways or 10 ways. UConn is better off playing the 18 teams next year.

 

[RS9999X]

But the money is so short that it simply doesn't matter much for UConn if it's split 18 ways or 10 ways. UConn is better off playing the 18 teams next year.

It could be the last decent conference schedule in my life time Boo Hoo.

If Nappier and Wolfe come back UConn will be one of the favorites to win. I'm all for that.

 

[RS9999X]

I wonder sometimes if you guys even know how to read.

I am not discussing here the future NBE versus the CYO7.

If your point is that this conference you list above is better than a conference without Butler and Xavier but with Louisville, UConn, Notre Dame, then you are hopelessly lost.

The point is the C7 is getting paid fairly as is the NNBE. The transition year doesn't matter. The break up only matters in the sense they are creating a better league not because they are getting paid to leave.

 

[upstater]

The point is the C7 is getting paid fairly as is the NNBE. The transition year doesn't matter. The break up only matters in the sense they are creating a better league not because they are getting paid to leave.

10m to 40m isn't a premium. It's an exponential rise. And fairness has little to do with it. My only point is that it's certainly not based on level of competition. Absolutely no one can argue that since the CYO7 will have an inferior product.

 

[gars44]

This is just a money play. We don't have any choices. It's not the value of the content driving this deal. It's the fact that if we don't take it, there is no other place to go. ESPN is basically saying, "here it is, eat or starve, your choice." Hard and real business.

Some of these suggestions that we make a statement and quit? And do what? Fold the program for a year?

 

[RS9999X]

There are three programs that got completely screwed in all of this. One of them is UConn. USF and Cincy are the others. USF can be philosophical about it: Never won the BE in football or attended a BCS game. Went to the NCAA Tourney once in basketball in 20 years making it to the round of 32.

Three others lost a windfall. A paper profit (Houston, SMU, and UCF) and based on the contracts of Boise, SSDU and Houston it was a seen as a risky venture anyway with too many moving parts.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Wow you really believe the math works like that. This is the same formula that yields -131 million in Waylon's world.

Honestly if you are so obtuse to believe that methodology it's not even worth attempting to explain anymore because you'll never get it.

Who would use what someone just paid as indicative of valuation? Pretty much everyone.

 

[whaler11]

Who would use what someone just paid as indicative of valuation? Pretty much everyone.

Yes, Waylon - UConn has a huge negative overall value for television contracts.

I don't know why the Big East doesn't just kick UConn, USF and Cinci out - their income immediately grows by 131 million a year.

By your methodology Rutgers and Michigan have the exact same value. Washington State and USC have the exact same value.

If UConn gets an invite to the ACC this year what exactly changes to take their value from negative 131 million to positive 20 million?

I'll let you get back to your trolling now. Enjoy.

 

[auggie22]

I stumbled across the ignore feature the other night, for better and worse. The good is that, at least on the CR board, I can minimize my exposure to hysterics. The downside is that the hysterics seem to be contagious.

I feel like I have been playing Asteroids for too long. My index finger is soar.

 

[HuskyHawk]

The point is the C7 is getting paid fairly as is the NNBE. The transition year doesn't matter. The break up only matters in the sense they are creating a better league not because they are getting paid to leave.

The transition year is valued as crap because nobody knows who will really be in the league. Had all the teams, C7, Pitt, ND, Cuse, UL been certain to be included it would be higher. But the networks could be getting the exact NNBE lineup. Hell they don't even have any level of certainty that UConn and Cinci will be part of it. It's mystery meat of the worst kind...and in this case, probably horse meat.

 

[upstater]

The transition year is valued as crap because nobody knows who will really be in the league. Had all the teams, C7, Pitt, ND, Cuse, UL been certain to be included it would be higher. But the networks could be getting the exact NNBE lineup. Hell they don't even have any level of certainty that UConn and Cinci will be part of it. It's mystery meat of the worst kind...and in this case, probably horse meat.

Actually, the deal is $10m with Louisville, Pitt, Rutgers and all the Catholics in it. Part of the deal expressly states that the $10m will be cut if those teams are not in the BE next year.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Actually, the deal is $10m with Louisville, Pitt, Rutgers and all the Catholics in it. Part of the deal expressly states that the $10m will be cut if those teams are not in the BE next year.

Ahh see what I get for going on vacation. That's insane.

 

[Jericho]

Re: the disparity between the Big East and C-7

One thing that's been speculated is that Fox really wanted winter content (i.e. basketball), but not fall content (i.e. football). This is because Fox had a fair amount of football contracts in place. But the conferences that Fox has for football were either less than stellar for basketball or football only deals. Fox's ideal situation would be to bid for a basketball only deal. Hence the incentive for them to pay the C-7 to leave.

Once Fox was out on bidding for the Big East (it was not overly interested in paying for more football content) and with CBS Sports broke and ESPN having a right to match, it left NBC bidding against itself. Sure, NBC could have raised the money enough to prevent ESPN from matching, but there was little competition for the bid. Hence, the low number. That, and the number is fairly reasonable given what the old C-USA contract paid (which is basically now the Big East).

The C-7 league will end up getting around $3 million per team. Reports have place the value between $30-$40 million depending on the number of schools. That's probably a small overpayment, but not wildly out of line with industry figures. The problem is that the Big East is no longer a "big boy" in football, so the football numbers fall more in line with Mountain West or C-USA or MAC numbers. and the basketball isn't super elite either (although basketball has never paid huge $$$).

You'd still think the Big East could have squeezed a few more million out per team (say around $4 million), but the Big East really does not look much different than the Mountain West. And we know they are not getting paid big bucks.

 

[businesslawyer]

Play the aggressor for one. I am so tired of hearing on this board that UConn should simply accept the fate others are determining for us. Why not stand up for UCONN? Why not tell the rest of the country and the Big 5 how we value ourselves? Perception becomes reality and if we perceive our worth to be tied with the NBE, I am sure the Big 10 and ACC will believe it as well.

That may be the stupidest thing posted here in a long time. Yes, the ACC and Big Ten will value our TV value based on what we tell them. Not what Fox and ESPN are willing to pay. Not what their paid consultants tell them. But what we say in a press conference.

 

[freescooter]

bl,

I do think you are ignoring that one's perception can be influenced by not only how we perform but by the "image" we make for ourselves. Otherwise the entire advertizing industry is bunk. And Louisville's move to the NCAA was as much about image as performance. Head to head, based on actual performance, UConn won everything from head to head competition in virtually every sport, to market, to academics. By every rational measure, UConn was the better and more logical choice. But the perception was out there that Louisville was a "football school" and that they had a big 12 invite essentially in the mail and they had a plan to upgrade academics. Result: UConn is in the Big East 3.0 while Louisville is in the ACC.

 

[businesslawyer]

bl,

I do think you are ignoring that one's perception can be influenced by not only how we perform but by the "image" we make for ourselves. Otherwise the entire advertizing industry is bunk. And Louisville's move to the NCAA was as much about image as performance. Head to head, based on actual performance, UConn won everything from head to head competition in virtually every sport, to market, to academics. By every rational measure, UConn was the better and more logical choice. But the perception was out there that Louisville was a "football school" and that they had a big 12 invite essentially in the mail and they had a plan to upgrade academics. Result: UConn is in the Big East 3.0 while Louisville is in the ACC.

No, I am not ignoring it. I think in being turned down the the ACC for Louisville, we were damaged by the perception that FSU fans had and how they turned that into pressure on FSU's administrators against us. I am on record as saying UConn should consider hiring a social media consulting firm (and no, I don't mean Huskyfandan).

But trying to change general perception is entirely different than thinking what we say about value is meaningful. It isn't. FSU may listen to their fans about harming the perception of the ACC as a football conferences. They are assuredly not doing so when it comes to how much money UConn, versus any other school, brings to the table.

 

[ZooCougar]

Fear kept us out of the ACC. Fear of Clempsun and Free Shoes U taking off in a temper tantrum if the didn't get their way. You might as well call it the Louisville Compromise.

 

[frankthetank]

Actually, the deal is $10m with Louisville, Pitt, Rutgers and all the Catholics in it. Part of the deal expressly states that the $10m will be cut if those teams are not in the BE next year.

I think there are a few factors here to account for what, on its face, looks like a huge disparity between what next year's Big East will be receiving for basketball compared to what the C7 will be receiving down the line:

(1) The $10 million basketball amount for next year is really looked at as a 1-year extension of the current basketball deal for practical purposes. ESPN may be looking at it as taking the old basketball amount and discounting it for Pitt and Syracuse leaving.

(2) Louisville, Rutgers, ND and the C7 may not be receiving any of that hoops TV money even if they stay next year. It's fairly typical for departing schools to give up their media revenue for the last year that they're in the conference. $10 million divided by the 8 teams that will be playing basketball next year and for the long haul thereafter plus whatever they're getting for football is pretty much in line with their average take over the life of the contract. That's all subject to negotiation, though, so this is simply a theory based on typical practices.

(3) A 1-year deal for anything that's not named the NFL is essentially worthless for a cable network. ESPN (and NBCSN and the new Fox Sports 1) need to enter into long-term agreements in order to gain enough in rises in cable subscriber fees to make these types of deals profitable. That's why every sports TV contract that's worth anything is on the order of 10 years long or more. You get clipped with a haircut if it's shorter-term (see the new 6-year Big East deal with ESPN) and essentially nothing if it's a 1-year deal. In a 1-year scenario, the cable network is almost solely dependent upon ad revenue to recoup their costs and that may not be worth it. So, even though the C7 will end up having fewer brand names than next year's Big East, it's a complete apples-and-oranges comparison when looking at a 1-year deal versus a 12-year deal. You can amortize the cost of a 12-year deal with a lot of revenue streams, while a 1-year is dependent upon only 1 revenue stream (so the prices reflect that).

 

[frankthetank]

bl,

I do think you are ignoring that one's perception can be influenced by not only how we perform but by the "image" we make for ourselves. Otherwise the entire advertizing industry is bunk. And Louisville's move to the NCAA was as much about image as performance. Head to head, based on actual performance, UConn won everything from head to head competition in virtually every sport, to market, to academics. By every rational measure, UConn was the better and more logical choice. But the perception was out there that Louisville was a "football school" and that they had a big 12 invite essentially in the mail and they had a plan to upgrade academics. Result: UConn is in the Big East 3.0 while Louisville is in the ACC.

I think this is very important. As someone that fully believed that UConn was heading to the ACC after Maryland defected, it was pretty stunning how Louisville soared ahead at the time. Looking back, though, I saw these as being major factors in how it all went down:

(1) As freescooter noted, the perception was that Louisville was the "football" choice in a situation where the ACC had to be perceived itself to be making the best "football move".

(2) That perception was based on a combo of tangibles and intangibles (so it's not entirely fair to say it's *all* about "image"). Louisville's attendance, historical track record for traveling for bowl games and current performance were all favorable compared to UConn. Louisville's build up of facilities for both football and basketball has been impressive, as well.

(3) The reason why that perception was sold to the ACC was because I fully believe that Tom Jurich is one of the top 5 athletic directors in the country (and university presidents and ADs will echo that belief down the line). Where he has led that athletic department from where it was when the BCS system was formed to how it is today has been nothing short of visionary. Jurich is the type of leader who can legitimately end up being a power conference commissioner if he wants to be and I have zero doubt that the people he talked to in the ACC felt that gravitas when he was presenting the credentials of Louisville.

(4) I think some people here already understand this, but this simple and unchangeable fact cannot be underestimated going forward: to the rest of the world, UConn's football history began in 2002 when it moved to the FBS level. All of those years in the A-10 and Yankee Conference simply don't count. As a result, UConn is seen as an upstart program, whereas a school like Louisville is seen as established. This may very well end up becoming an issue again in the event that UConn and Cincinnati have to end up fighting for one spot, too. Whether that's fair or not, that's simply the perception.

I'm telling you - I waaaaaaay underestimated point #4 (which is unfortunately something that can't change outside of the passage of time). For all of the academic credentials and overall athletic accolades that UConn has to offer, point #4 is the proverbial ball-and-chain. When these discussions are so close and there isn't a clear right or wrong, the simple "Who has been doing this for a longer period of time?" question can end up being the deciding factor.

 

[OkaForPrez]

Wait did Frank just lose credibility or did Scoot just gain credibility?