Alabama Scouting Report

[Hey Adrien!]

Alabama (25-11)
#12 in KenPom
63rd in D1 experience
276th in minutes continuity (26.2%)
34th tallest team in D1​

3rd in offensive efficiency

• 3rd in offensive tempo
• 9th w/ a 57.1 2P% (almost all 2P attempts are in the paint)
• 19th in 3PA/FGA (46.6%); 21st in a 37.1 3P%
• 23rd in offensive rebounding rate
• 25th w/ a 77.1 FT%; 98th in FT rate
• 102nd in TO prevention
• 143rd in A/FGM (46.6%)

104th in defensive efficiency

• 44th in A/FGM prevention (45.3%)
• 45th in opp 3P% (31.5%); 181th in 3PM/FGM prevention
• 92nd in block rate
• 163rd in steal rate
• 194th w/ a 50.7% opp 2P%
• 272nd in defensive rebounding rate
• 311th in opp. FT rate (lots of fouls)
• 350th in non steal/block turnover rate

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP:

Mark Sears 6’1 185 senior

• Second lowest rated defender

Aaron Estrada 6’3 190 grad transfer from Hofstra

Rylan Griffin 6’6 190 sophomore

• Lowest rated defender

Nick Pringle 6’10 230 senior

• Third lowest rated defender

Grant Nelson 6’11 230 senior transfer from NDSU

• Fourth lowest rated defender

KEY INJURIES -

Latrell Wrightsell - Head (day-to-day; missed last two games)
Nick Pringle - Heel bruise (hasn’t missed a game)


BENCH PIECES - 32.7% minutes (133rd in nation)

Jarin Stevenson 6’11 210 freshman

• Third highest rated defender

Latrell Wrightsell 6’3 190 senior - hasn’t played last two games; might start if healthy

• Second highest rated defender

Sam Walters 6’10 198 freshman

• Fourth highest rated defender

Mouhamed Dioubate 6’7 215 freshman

Mohamed Wague 6’10 225 senior transfer from West Virginia

• Top rated defender

The word on Illinois was all-offense, weak defense and Alabama is even more lopsided in that fashion. They’re an oddly configured roster: the starting lineup has its best offensive weapons, but worst defenders while the bench has the team's best defenders.

Not only is Alabama all offense: they are very particular in how they run their offense: fast with lots of three point attempts and shots in the paint. Case in point, here’s Alabama’s shot chart from last game:

Alabama’s head of the snake is Mark Sears, the First Team All-SEC star ranked as KenPom’s tenth most efficient offensive player in the nation, but also their second lowest rated defender, making him the perfect paragon of Alabama’s style. He’s an elite penetrator and incredibly efficient from the three-point line. The strategy against him is simple: Castle shadows him all day, the head of the snake is chopped off.

Mark Sears shares the point guard role with well-traveled guard Aaron Estrada. He is not as gifted on the perimeter (26.6 3P% in conference play), but is also a strong rim-attacker and is an excellent positional offensive rebounder.

Rylen Griffen is Alabama’s most potent perimeter weapon in the starting lineup, but is Alabama’s weakest defensive player, so whichever Husky he guards can feast.

Alabama’s starting frontcourt has two capable shot-blockers, but unimpressive defensive metrics. Nick Pringle splits his time between starting at the 4 and playing backup at the 5 alongside either Griffin playing up to the 4 or big 3-and-D forward Jarin Stevenson. A dangerous gazelle in the open court, almost all of his field goal attempts are in the paint as he hasn’t taken a single three all season. After an impressive junior season at North Dakota State, Grant Nelson has played solidly at Alabama and brings a lot of versatility on offense as his game reminds me a lot of Illinois’ Coleman Hawkins on offense, but brings none of the defensive versatility and isn’t as strong of an outside shooter as Hawkins.

Off the bench, the injury status of Latrell Wrightsell is huge. Missing the last two games with a head injury, Wrightsell is a part-time starter who plays starters’ minutes regardless where he plays. Wrightsell is a classic three-and-D guard who is Alabama’s best perimeter defender and is an elite spacer in the halfcourt. If he’s gone, it crushes Alabama’s guard depth and forces Griffin, a good shooter but much worse defender, to play a lot more.

Alabama’s frontcourt bench is the team’s best defensive unit. I’ve already mentioned Stevenson and the 6’10 Sam Walters is a similar player as both are long three-and-D forwards. Mouhamed Diobaute is Alabama’s glue guy, a physical, high-motor forward who is an excellent rebounder and, like Pringle, takes almost all of his field goal attempts from the paint. Mohamed Wague is a West Virginia transfer who is kinda like the anti-Alabama player: incredibly limited on offense (97% of his field goal attempts are inside the paint), but an excellent defender.

Alabama is such a weird team: they lost four of the last six going into the tournament, but have been able to score enough to outpace their opponents, so far. Clemson was their first tournament opponent whose offensive tempo was outside the top-70, so it would make sense that UConn’s meticulous halfcourt pace will keep the Crimson Tide at bay. Of course, a team like Alabama can get hot quickly, but if Wrightsell doesn’t play, that is one less spacer who can score in short order and open up the floor for Sears, Estrada and co.

 

[SubbaBub]

Seems like Illinois but not as good at either end. I expect a big game for Newton and/or Spencer. I don't think they will force the paint in the same way as Illinois, but gosh help them if they do.

 

[dogpause]

Great job, as usual.

 

[c29328]

I love reading these. Thank you for pulling them together.

 

[Tenspro2002]

They basically need to go 15-35 from 3, right?

In a way I'm relieved that 3 point defense is the better aspect of their D, because it means if we're not hitting shots we'll find other ways to score.

 

[bendm]

They basically need to go 15-35 from 3, right?

In a way I'm relieved that 3 point defense is the better aspect of their D, because it means if we're not hitting shots we'll find other ways to score.

They average 11/30 from 3 and when they hit at least 11 3s they are 17-2 on the season. Only 2 losses to Clemson and Purdue.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

I fully expect Sears will draw the Castle/Diarra tag team and we’ve seen how that has been ending recently. Asking Sears to do what he’s doing against a top 5 on-ball defender, who also happens to be at least 5 inches taller than him is a big ask.

With Sears probably looking at a rough game, it’s hard to see them keeping pace. We have more size, should kill them on the glass, and likely end up with a layup line of easy baskets.

TLDR: we’re doomed.

 

[auror]

There's a good scouting report on the frontpage of Storrs Central (not sure what the rules are for linking the premium stuff there).

 

[ctbro1999]

It's imperative that Castle stay out of foul trouble so he can stay in the game and lock down Sears. If Castle can do what he's been doing all tournament to the opposing team's best scorer, 'bama has very little chance. The nightmare scenario is both Clingan and Castle get into early foul trouble, and we're forced to enter a track meet with bama. I can still see us pulling it out even if that happens, but it'll be similar to the early season Butler game where Clingan was out and our best defense was our offense and it was a "hold onto yer butts" type game.

 

[Scrappy3]

Thanks
Having clingan will turn the tide in the paint
And we can play 3 pt line extended and swarm spears out to 40 feet w castle and newton

 

[REB1094]

Castle, Diarra, and Clingan did a great job locking up Boo Buie and Terrence Shannon Jr in consecutive weeks. We need another great defensive performance

Mark Sears had 30 in the R64, 26 in R32, 18 in S16, 23 in E8, and is averaging over 21 a game on the season shooting 50/40/86

Lock him up and if someone else beats you, so be it. Keep Clingan out of foul trouble, execute our offense, and I like our chances

 

[WhereistheDove?]

It's imperative that Castle stay out of foul trouble so he can stay in the game and lock down Sears. If Castle can do what he's been doing all tournament to the opposing team's best scorer, 'bama has very little chance. The nightmare scenario is both Clingan and Castle get into early foul trouble, and we're forced to enter a track meet with bama. I can still see us pulling it out even if that happens, but it'll be similar to the early season Butler game where Clingan was out and our best defense was our offense and it was a "hold onto yer butts" type game.

I really don’t see who in their personnel can put Clingan into foul trouble unless he just has some really stupid fouls. He has been so good about going straight up and generally avoiding the frustration fouls, hard to see that being a huge issue. That all being said, I think the Samson hard hedge could be really effective against their pretty small guards as well.

 

[Deepster]

I fully expect Sears will draw the Castle/Diarra tag team and we’ve seen how that has been ending recently. Asking Sears to do what he’s doing against a top 5 on-ball defender, who also happens to be at least 5 inches taller than him is a big ask.

With Sears probably looking at a rough game, it’s hard to see them keeping pace. We have more size, should kill them on the glass, and likely end up with a layup line of easy baskets.

TLDR: we’re anything but doomed.

Fixed.

 

[Palatine]

I fully expect Sears will draw the Castle/Diarra tag team and we’ve seen how that has been ending recently. Asking Sears to do what he’s doing against a top 5 on-ball defender, who also happens to be at least 5 inches taller than him is a big ask.

With Sears probably looking at a rough game, it’s hard to see them keeping pace. We have more size, should kill them on the glass, and likely end up with a layup line of easy baskets.

TLDR: we’re doomed.

If you watch the Phil Knight game Newton was on Sears a bunch.

 

[WhereistheDove?]

If you watch the Phil Knight game Newton was on Sears a bunch.

I would not expect a repeat of that with Castle in the fold. Maybe Newton will see a bit but I fully expect Castle’s role will be to lock Sears down.

 

[Malamute]

With a side dish of Diarra.

 

[jdb50]

Spencer and a bit Newton had shots midway down the lane and took it in further with bad results last game. Need to take the open look.

 

[Hamms30]

I really don’t see who in their personnel can put Clingan into foul trouble unless he just has some really stupid fouls. He has been so good about going straight up and generally avoiding the frustration fouls, hard to see that being a huge issue. That all being said, I think the Samson hard hedge could be really effective against their pretty small guards as well.

Seems like Clingan has matured a lot. In the Cam article on the Athletic, Clingan mentioned coming out of I think the Depaul game early because of foul trouble and Spencer laid into him telling him, who gives a $*** about 2 points.. now you have to sit for 10 minutes. Seems like that kinda jarred something in him and made him realize he's got a bigger role to play on the team and needs to keep himself on the floor.

 

[UconnU]

Have these lunatic Bama fans given us any bulletin board material, along the lines of Sean Harrington, yet? If we can’t get it from their fans no one will give it to us.

 

[huskyharry]

If you watch the Phil Knight game Newton was on Sears a bunch.

And he did a great job

 

[huskyharry]

Commentators on previous games said Coach Oats is extremely analytics driven and will not let anyone except Estrada shoot mid-Range shots. If that holds true it would make them very easy to game plan against but we shall see and of course we are doomed, clearly DOOMED!

 

[Fan1978]

They average 11/30 from 3 and when they hit at least 11 3s they are 17-2 on the season. Only 2 losses to Clemson and Purdue.

UConn well defend the 3 and get higher quality shots, game over.

 

[gsmooth]

Even though Alabama is from a P6 conference they are seen as the David vs Goliath in their match vs UConn. David had the slingshot (3 pt shot) to defeat Goliath. Almost everything has to do with ripping the slingshot out of David's hands, so to speak. If Latrell Wrightsell plays, Alabama could go small and 5 out to draw Clingan away. Clingan would feast inside on offense, but Alabama might congest the paint and dare UConn to make 3s. If UConn's 3 point shooting is on, which it hasn't been once in this tournament, I like UConn's chances.

 

[Incursio007]

Let’s just keep everyone away from calamari and I like our chances.

 

[August_West]

They basically need to go 15-35 from 3, right?

In a way I'm relieved that 3 point defense is the better aspect of their D, because it means if we're not hitting shots we'll find other ways to score.

I think they will jack between 40-50 threes. I think they need to hit at least 19. Oats is going to turn them loose and hope he catches a heater. They are solid at attacking the rim too, but I think he knows that attacking Clingan is worse via metrics than jacking yet another contested 27 foot 3. They are going to let them fly early and often.